SurveyUSA has released a new poll in the governor’s race it conducted for KING-TV (Seattle) and KATU-TV (Portland.) No surprise really, the race is a statistical dead heat, with Gov. Chris Gregoire polling at 48% and Dino Rossi (GOP Party) 47%.. From the SurveyUSA summary:
Among men, Rossi has regained the nominal lead, swinging from a tie to a six-point lead. Among women, Rossi has fallen off, increasing Gregoire’s lead from 4 points to 7. The gender gap between the two candidates is now 13 points, the largest since Mid-August. Independents, who make up 28% of likely voters, have consistently preferred Rossi since June, by margins of 24, 8, 10, 6, 2, and 10 points; today, independents favor Rossi by 8.
While there’s always a danger in becoming too reliant on polls, two other things are worth mentioning. Rossi has a large lead among 19-34 year old voters in the poll, leading Gregoire 54%-38%, and Rossi is ahead everywhere outside Metro Seattle.
So the fact that the final debate tonight between the pair is in Seattle and will be available outside the Seattle market only on cable is something of a tactical victory for the Rossi campaign. Plus it’s after the presidential debate, and surely only the hardest of hardcore followers of politics could sit through four hours of debates and coverage.
People are going to be voting any day now, so it looks like another extremely close gubernatorial election is a possibility. The BIAW and the Republican Governor’s Association obviously think they can buy the election for Rossi, but dropping such obscene amounts so late could backfire on them as traditional journalists inform the public about it. Postman or Ammons or Herrington or Mulick will be all over it.
(To be fair, Garber is on it. At the Seattle Times. Which I believe is widely read in um, Metro Seattle.)
And yes, Gregoire benefits from union money. Whatever. It’s not even as much as the phoney-baloney PAC money BIAW alone raises, however it actually raises it.