Join us for an evening of drinks, conversation and political debate at a special Debate Night Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally. The event is Thursday evening.
There are two debates to watch: the VP debate between VP Joe Biden (D) and Congressman Paul Ryan (R), followed by a gubernatorial debate between former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and Washington AG Rob McKenna (R).
We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.
The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the VP debate begins at 6:00pm.
Note: We will have picture and audio for the VP debate. But for the gubernatorial debate, we’ll have the picture, but no sound. If you are serious about listening to the debate, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Even the VP debate my be hard to hear with the background noise. I believe KUOW will be broadcasting the debates. Additionally, the Montlake Alehouse has free WiFi. Ask your server for the password.
I’ll be live blogging (with Carl Ballard, I believe) from the Ale House. I hope you can join us.
Can’t wait to see Joe BiteMe in action. He’s been hidden for a while so no gaffes before the debate. Maybe he’s taking his debate prep seriously!
To the person playing Puddybud,
Yep…I’m SURE Biden is going to totally fuck up—just like he did for his DNC speech. And when he spoke before the NAACP.
Remember that embarrassment? All those people booing?
Oh…wait. Nevermind.
Can’t wait for this match up. Crazy Joe is going to get his ass handed to him on a plate!
Predictably, the NY Times comes up with a poll to portray Obama as ahead in key states, trying to stop the bleeding. Take a look at the sampling and be the judge-
http://www.nytimes.com/interac.....sults.html
I really hope Ryan brings up the latest Solyndra. This one cost taxpayers $400 million. Another payback to Obama supporters at our expense.
http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....stigators/
What a disaster Obama’s green energy policies of cronyism have been. On top of a disastrous economic policy overall and even worse foreign policy. But hey, the NY Times says Obama is way ahead!!
Clearly Obama is a Be-er. He loves being President, but is clueless about what to do to benefit the American people.
Obama ain’t no Do-er or leader.
“be the judge”
OK. I judge you to be dumber than a fucking stump, Klown. Gawd, you’re fucking stupid.
My evidence-based prediction of who is likely to be more truthful in tonight’s debate:
http://www.mynof3.com/1/post/2.....Hb2sW80WSo
Hint: It’s probably not going to be Ryan.
So after spending around $120M during the summer to ‘define’ Romney, Obama was minimally ahead.
They go mano a mano a week ago and Romney kicks his ass.
Wonder what will happen now that Romney’s finally dropping some serious coin on his campaign?
Romney’s Ad Buy Tops President’s
For the first week of this election season, Mitt Romney is outspending President Barack Obama on television ads, with the Republican challenger dipping into a war chest amassed from an aggressive fundraising schedule.
Mr. Romney will spend about $16.8 million on television ads this week, according to ad-tracking data provided by media buyers, while Mr. Obama will spend about $15.5 million, down 30% from a week earlier, when the campaign spent heavily to air a two-minute, pre-debate spot.
When spending by independent super PACs is included, the mismatch is wider. Mr. Romney and his allies will combine for $31.4 million this week, compared with $19.7 million for Mr. Obama and his supporters, according to data from one media tracker.
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....81262.html
Today’s political humor – google images search for “completely wrong”
Your sound bite du jour:
“…I’ll know he’ll come and attack us. The problem he has is he has Barack Obama’s record to run on.”
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/11/.....index.html
Bob @ 10,
“So after spending around $120M during the summer to ‘define’ Romney, Obama was minimally ahead.”
Hold on, there, Squirt! Don’t get carried away with your delusions. There are facts and shit that can weigh in here.
Using the entire set of state head to head polls for the past year…
…we see that Obama has held a commanding, indisputable, lead in the real election—the Electoral Collage—every single week.
“They go mano a mano a week ago and Romney kicks his ass.”
If by “Kicking his ass” you mean, “Lying his ass off with confidence and resolve”, I’d be forced to agree with you.
Yet, still, in the real election, Romney isn’t even doing as well as he was after the convention.
I think you are being duped by a media hungry for a horse race.
Yeah, putting people in chains… race baiting like any progressive DUMMOCRAPT!
It will be interesting to watch how BiteMe handles himself under pressure.
With the first debate the media was shown to be the slobbering libtard head up de Obummer ASS progressives they really are. The polls cross-tabs demonstrated an over abundance of Obummer loving DUMMOCRAPTS in each one.
The IBD/TIPP Poll
Sponsored by: IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
Daily Tracking Poll
Day 2: Oct. 10, 2012 Romney: +5.0
Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
Sample Size: 757 likely voters (identified from 873 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)
Tonight’s debate will be glorious as they can’t spin Joe BiteMe, as his name is in the lexicon for GAFFE!
Darryl @ 11:
…we see that Obama has held a commanding, indisputable, lead in the real election—the Electoral Collage—every single week.
And in nearly all of those weeks he hasn’t cracked 50% approval. (He might, going forward, as Gallup has – during the election season – revised their method of calculating:
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca.....ethodology
.)
Obama’s had the advantage of incumbency, for months he’s had the advantage of primary cash not needed to fend off primary adversaries, and yet his advantage over Romney has not been substantial, even if it has been consistent (a point which is not in dispute).
In a D + 8-9 world, your argument holds greater water. In a D +3-4 world, it’s been a whole lot closer than the polls would indicate. It’s been a ‘commanding’ lead for Obama only if one reads the poll data without regard to crosstabs, in my opinion.
Darryl, what’s your over/under on the turnout next month, nationwide?
Those of you wishing for a Gary Johnson support base maybe should stop wishing.
When Gary Johnson’s included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.....ada-1.html
Bob @ 14,
“And in nearly all of those weeks he hasn’t cracked 50% approval.”
Your argument is vacuous.
You are simply confusing your measures. A state’s popular vote will not be based on a ballot question about whether people approve of the President. Rather, it will be based on people casting a vote for one of a series of candidates.
Therefore, in trying to understand the state of an election, the most informative measure is who people say they will vote for. Not the fraction who approve of the President.
(Additionally, Approval in national polls, is another level removed from election outcome. Furthermore, in most polls in most swing states, Obama’s favorables have outperformed Romney’s favorables in the same poll, but that is still a level removed from who they say they will vote for.)
“Obama’s had the advantage of incumbency”
Yes… incumbency is considered an advantage because, empirically, incumbents have a greater likelihood of reelection. Obama will still be the incumbent on election day.
“for months he’s had the advantage of primary cash not needed to fend off primary adversaries, and yet his advantage over Romney has not been substantial, even if it has been consistent (a point which is not in dispute).”
Now you are just being plain stupid. Obama has largely held Romney to a 0% probability of getting elected throughout this election season. That is not a “slight” advantage. That is an overwhelming advantage. The only serious exception was a few weeks last November and one week last January, were Romney cracked a 25% probability.
In fact, John McCain was able to take the lead several times during the 2008 election, something Romney has not come close to doing:
It is absurd to suggest Obama has not had a substantial lead over Romeny.
“In a D + 8-9 world, your argument holds greater water. In a D +3-4 world, it’s been a whole lot closer than the polls would indicate.”
Bullshit. One again, you are relying on secondary (once-removed) indicators and rejecting the answers people give on who they would vote for. You’re simply fooling yourself with that nonsense.
“It’s been a ‘commanding’ lead for Obama only if one reads the poll data without regard to crosstabs, in my opinion.”
That is likely because you are in denial. I’m reasonably up to date on the academic literature in polling, and I cannot think of one study that finds characteristics in the crosstab provide anything close to the predictive power of who people say they will vote for.
“Darryl, what’s your over/under on the turnout next month, nationwide?”
Nothing in the methods I use requires (or could justify) making predictions about turnout.
Besides what is Joe BiteME gonna do in the debate? Whip out the whizzonator and be someone else? GAFFE City!
Butt heh, he could surprise all of us since he is a polished debater. That’s what the DUMMOCRAPTS tell us.
It wasn’t so long ago that HA libbies were predicting that Romney wouldn’t be nominated. He wasn’t the choice of the true conservatives or some such shit.
So sorry to disappoint you.
Kingmakers in the Republican Party are closing ranks behind Mitt Romney, saying they have no concerns about the GOP nominee’s recent push for independent voters.
http://thehill.com/homenews/ca.....ind-romney
Seems they’re starting to smell napalm in the morning.
Cap’n Kornflake,
I see you’re spouting that hopey changey Slick Willard bullshit again.
While I understand a troll’s gotta troll, I will once again offer you the opportunity to Rmoney up your $1000 wager on Slick Willard winning the election to a Rmoney suitable amount of $10k.
We on?
Or maybe you’ll just spend the next 26 days acquiring tissues to wipe your salty bitter tears on November 7th and stop pasting your bullshit here?
“It wasn’t so long ago that HA libbies were predicting that Romney wouldn’t be nominated.”
Gawd, you’re a real stupid fucking idiot, Bob. We were just following the polls and primaries, when every Republican but my Dear Ms. Wingnut was kicking Romney’s ass at one time or another. It was your own fucking party that was in denial over your candidate, not us. “Anybody but Romney” was you, not us. One by one the right tried others on for size, hoping that someone else’s foot would fit the glass slipper. Your behaviour through the primaries made it look like you were rejecting Romney but eventually settled for him because all of your other candidates sucked even worse. Shit, you can’t even come up with five reasons to vote for him. Hell, if he revealed his secret plans he’d lose, so he has to lie about everything. If there was a fair election, he’d lose, so you try to deny Americans the right to vote.
You’re just another Klown, Bob, and the wingnut Klown act had grown old long before you ever showed up.
@ 19
I’m good, thanks. I have wagers outside the HA world.
@ 20
We were just following the polls and primaries, when every Republican but my Dear Ms. Wingnut was kicking Romney’s ass at one time or another.
Doctor Steve, people around here were spewing that Romney wouldn’t be nominated back in August. Nice attempt at historic revisionism.
@21 Cap’n Kornflake,
You’re “good”? What the f*ck does that mean?
Could it mean that when it comes right down to it you are not as confident Slick Willard is not going to get his ass whooped as you say you are?
That’s what I think pal. You talk a lot of shit, but you ain’t got the stones to get the job done.
I guess that’s why you are a Republican.
@22 Cap’n Kornflake,
Which people?
You Should Watch This Video
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/a.....?ref=fpblg
For the Team Victory readers here at HA I commend to you the superb writing of Charles P. Pierce
The Zombie-Eyed Granny-Starver Takes on the One Man Who Relishes This Mess: Your 2012 VP Debate Preview
ps. I recall Cap’n Kornflake bragging in August how Ly’n Ryan was going to mop the floor with Uncle Joe. Let’s see how that goes, shall we?
@22 My goodness, that was an epic fail, smarmy one. Thanks for at least confirming the first thing I wrote, that you’re a fucking idiot.