Search Results for: michael dunmire

In the comment threads, Tim Eyman claims that “I-960’s policies have strong voter support,” but a recent KING-5/SurveyUSA poll suggests the initiative itself does not:

Initiative 960 is defeated 2:1 in a vote today. Women and greater Seattle voters oppose by 3:1. Those who have already voted oppose 2:1. A third of voters are Not Certain how they will vote on 960. If all of them vote Yes, the outcome could be close. Otherwise, the measure will be defeated.

Of course I take this and all pre-election polls with a lump of salt. I-960 has a very favorable ballot title (written by Timmy’s personal attorney, Jim Pharris,) and that’s always worth a few extra points at the polls. Still, if I were initiative financier Michael Dunmire, I’d start worrying about having flushed yet another half million dollars down Timmy’s gold-plated toilet.

It is interesting to note that Eyman’s success at the polls appears inversely related to the personal effort he puts into getting his initiatives on the ballot. While he’s never invested much money in promoting his measures, there was a time when the bulk of his signatures were gathered by volunteers, and the bulk of his money came from an army of small contributors… efforts that required real grassroots outreach and mobilization. But in lazily relying on lump-sum payments from Dunmire to buy his way onto the ballot, Tim has abandoned the grassroots campaigning that once generated the buzz and support that carried his initiatives to victory. Long past are the days when Tim can send out an email and instantly generate a crowd of supporters for some publicity stunt or another; now it’s pretty much Tim, Dunmire, the Fagins and a rented costume.

I-960 could still pass; it’s got an appealing ballot title, and nobody likes taxes. But if it fails, Tim only has himself to blame.

TANGENTIAL ASIDE:
Do you think Tim recognizes the irony that he has been reduced to commenting in the threads of a blog named after an initiative to proclaim him a horse’s ass?

Maybe some day, when I’m old and curmudgeonly and stuck in the past enough to get a job writing a column for a major daily newspaper, I can be just like the P-I’s Ted Van Dyk…

One of the most difficult things to do, in any part of life, is to make judgments on the basis of facts and principles rather than on our feelings about personalities.

Yeah, and when you’re talking about facts and stuff, it might be a good idea to actually research them, rather than just kinda-sorta drawing from your personal recollection. Take for example Van Dyk’s defense of Tim Eyman, whose initiatives he both criticizes as “arbitrary” and “disruptive”, and lauds as resonating with an angry electorate.

But wait a minute. Why do Eyman’s proposals gain broad public support, even when losing?

Um… in a democracy, isn’t “losing” an election kinda the opposite of “broad public support”…?

It is because they resonate in an electorate just plain fed up with undisciplined and even mischievous state and local spending and taxing decisions. Eyman’s ballot measures become send-a-message blunt instruments for ordinary citizens.

Eyman’s initiatives resonate with voters? Really? Let’s take a look at Eyman’s electoral performance over the past few years and see how Van Dyk’s assumptions hold up:

	2006:	I-917 — YATDCTB ("Yet Another Thirty Dollar Car Tab Initiative") Eyman spent nearly $738,000 — most of it Michael Dunmire’s money — yet failed to collect enough signatures to qualify this dog for the ballot.
	2005:	I-900 — Performance Audits Passed with 56% of the vote.  By comparison, the other two winning initiatives that year, the "Indoor Clean Air Act" and the totally unsexy "Commission on Judicial Conduct," pulled in 63 and 68 percent of the vote respectively.
	2004:	I-892 — "Slots for Tots" Failed with only 38% of the vote, the worst of that year’s five statewide measures.  Eyman’s I-864, which would have cut local property tax levies by 25% across the board, failed to qualify for the ballot after five months of canvassing.
	2003:	I-807 — "Super Majority for Tax & Fee Increases" Sounds familiar?  Well without Michael Dunmire’s money, this first incarnation of I-960 failed to qualify for the ballot.

So… um… how exactly do you “gain broad public support, even when losing,” initiatives that never even get far enough to lose? Van Dyk imagines he has his finger on the pulse of Washington voters, but if he did, you’d think he might have noticed that Eyman politically flat-lined years ago. Eyman didn’t even manage to qualify a single anti-tax initiative over the previous four years, let alone pass one, and since 2002 has relied almost exclusively on sugar daddy Michael Dunmire and the gambling industry to finance his paid signature drives. In the interim, voters have overwhelmingly rejected both gas tax and estate tax repeal, while local levies routinely passed throughout the state. Yeah… voters are clearly “just plain fed up.”

Van Dyk goes on to berate the rail portion of the coming Roads & Transit measure, warning it will “snarl traffic and harm the economy,” and yet polls consistently show that light rail is exactly the portion of the measure most popular with voters. What exactly is Van Dyk’s definition of an “ordinary citizen”…? Kemper Freeman Jr.?

With logic like that Van Dyke almost makes Eyman seem sensible. Almost.

UPDATE:
Andrew’s got a more comprehensive Eyman Failure Chart up at Permanent Defense.

Yet another stupidly conceived, stupidly written Tim Eyman initiative was tossed out by the courts last year, I-747, which capped the revenue growth from regular local levies at 1-percent a year. And now I hear that House Dems are stupidly caucusing today to discuss the stupid idea of reinstating I-747.

Oy.

I’ll come back later with a more substantive post on the issues involved, but I just want to take a moment here to discuss the politics. I have been told by more than one legislator that there is a real concern that failing to reinstate I-747 would create the opportunity for Eyman to come back with an even more damaging initiative, thus reinvigorating his flagging career, and I just have to respectfully say that this is the most heads-up-your-ass, mind-numbingly backwards analysis that I have ever heard in my life.

If you are desperate to breathe new life into Eyman, go ahead and prove to the world that you fear him, by reinstating I-747. He’ll claim credit for your boneheaded, reactionary blunder, and the Capitol press corps will give it to him, because… well… he’ll deserve it. Hell… why not just abdicate your responsibilities entirely, boot Frank, and elect Tim as Speaker?

Or, of course, you could calmly explore the policy alternatives, impose a more reasonable cap of say, inflation-plus-population with a 4-percent max, and then address the growing regressivity burden by creatively passing a property tax homestead exemption or an income-sensitive circuit breaker.

And you know how Tim will respond? He’ll send out a couple of angry emails to a list whose most avid readers include a handful of email-weary journalists and some anti-Tim activists like me. Maybe Dave Ammons will quote him in an AP story. And that’s about it.

You see, in case you weren’t paying much attention, Eyman really hasn’t done much these past five years, his last tax-cutting initiative having passed way back in November of 2002. He has no organization to speak of, no grassroots, and apart from the deep pockets of Michael Dunmire, an anemic and ever-shrinking fund raising base that barely brings in enough cash to pay for mailing his many fund raising appeals.

The legislature has nothing to fear from Tim Eyman. He’s toothless. He’s a paper tiger.

No… I take that back. To call Tim Eyman a paper tiger would be to grossly overestimate his chance of delivering a political paper-cut. With his dwindling support and our shifting political climate, Tim is at most a toilet paper tiger… the soft, 3-ply, fluffy kind my grandmother buys, not that coarse, off-brand variety you find in the Capitol restrooms. Provoke Tim, and at most he might leave behind a political dingleberry or two. But come back with a killer initiative? Not likely.

So my advice to the House caucus is please… take your time and carefully evaluate all the implications of reinstating I-747 — the stupid political implications as well as the stupid policy ones. And please remember that Tim Eyman is a toilet paper tiger, so the last thing you want to do is feed him. No, you just want to wad him up, wipe your ass with him, and flush him down the toilet.

The Washington State GOP has a new message wherein they attack Democrats for trying to restore voting rights to felons. It’s called “Families Before Felons.” Though for State Senator Pam “The Pistol” Roach, the message might as well be “Felons In My Family.”

A transit riders union? It’s goofy-sounding, but it might just work!

Rep. Doc Hastings: would you like some cheese with your whine?

Michael Dunmire: Proof you don’t have to have sense to be rich.

Ron Sims calls bullshit.

Oh yeah, and that Watada guy is off the hook (for now).

There is a hearing in Olympia this morning before the House Committee on State Government & Tribal Affairs on HB 1087, which would prohibit paying initiative petition signature gatherers on a per-signature basis.

Word is that the hearing room is packed with opponents of the bill, a crowd organized by Tim Eyman and his signature gathering contractors at Citzens Solutions. Of course they’re crowding the hearing room. This isn’t democracy or free speech that’s at stake for them, it’s their livelihood.

I’d thought about heading down to the hearing myself, but it’s hard to make an 8:00 AM hearing in Olympia when my daughter doesn’t walk out the door to school until 9:00 AM. Besides, I already know what the Eyman folks are going to say, so why not just refute them here?

There are really only two arguments against HB 1087. 1.) There is no evidence of signature fraud in WA state, and thus this bill is an unconstitutional restriction on free speech; and 2.) this bill is intended to destroy the initiative process.

Both arguments are complete and utter loads of shit.

As to the first argument, a similar Oregon law was recently upheld by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, precisely because the state of Oregon presented gobs of evidence of signature fraud conducted by signature gatherers, incentivized by their pay-per-signature compensation.

That’s Oregon. Just across the border. Does anybody really believe that Washington state is somehow immune to the same sort of shenanigans, especially when you consider that most paid signature gatherers are mercenary migrant workers traveling from state to state during the signature gathering season? Gimme a break.

Some have argued that our Secretary of State has reported no fraud of this sort here in WA, but just because the SOS hasn’t found this fraud (or even looked for it) doesn’t mean it’s not happening. And it is more than a touch ironic that these people who would vociferously argue against simple safeguards protecting the integrity of the initiative process, are the same people who vociferously argue for requiring photo ID at the polls… when they can provide absolutely no evidence of polling place voter fraud! What a bunch of fucking hypocrites.

Signature fraud was rampant in Oregon, and they just got away with it until watchdog organizations did their own investigations and presented their evidence to the government and the press. No doubt similar fraud occurs annually in WA state and across the nation… which, um, could explain the extraordinarily high signature rejection rates here and elsewhere. Eyman himself, the grand defender of the initiative process that has so lavishly supported him and his family, has filed petitions with a rejection rate pushing 20 percent, and I’m told that at least one petition in another state last season was thrown out after the signature rejection rate exceeded 50 percent!

As for the second argument, that this bill is intended to kill the initiative process, well that is simply refuted by reality. A similar bill is law in Oregon, and the same folks who fought it in court there are still managing to qualify initiatives for the ballot. Perhaps it’s a touch more expensive, I don’t really know. But nobody ever said that qualifying an initiative for the ballot should be easy.

Hell, if it was up to me, I’d lower the signature threshold in exchange for banning paid signature gathering altogether. This would make it harder for self-interested professionals like Eyman to qualify an initiative simply on the merits of a big check from Michael Dunmire, while at the same time making it easier for initiatives with real grassroots support to come before voters.

But, well, anything that takes the profit motive out of the initiative process is sure to draw opposition from initiative “champions” like Eyman.

Of course the title to this post refers to the original horse’s ass, the man for whom this blog is named, my former foil Tim Eyman. I say “former” because as our respective relevance has moved in opposite directions, I’ve moved on to bigger, more challenging targets.

But I can’t help but feel at least a touch nostalgic reading of Timmy’s latest venture, especially since it is largely a retread of a measure he failed to qualify for the ballot back in 2003, around the time I first stumbled onto the scene with I-831, my feel-good initiative to officially proclaim Tim Eyman a horse’s ass. After failing this year to qualify for the ballot with a tried-and-true, sure-fire winner — the third or forth incarnation of his YATDCT Initiative (Yet Another Thirty Dollar Car Tab) — Eyman has been reduced to recycling one of his biggest clunkers, an initiative so dull and uninspiring that he quietly dumped it halfway through the signature gathering season for a paid gig on behalf of the gambling industry.

Sure, he’s gussied it up with some ready-made talking points about requiring disclosure of OFM estimates that are already disclosed, but for the most part he’s just putting lipstick on a equine anus. For the centerpiece of both his latest measure and his 2003 flop is a provision that requires a two-thirds super-majority vote in both houses of the legislature for any tax or fee increase.

Um… but we already have a similar anti-constitutional provision on the books courtesy of 1993’s I-601, a measure that has proven entirely toothless because the state Constitution clearly sets forth that bills are to be passed by a simple majority. When the legislature wants to exceed I-601’s limits it need merely suspend it with a majority vote. So what’s the point?

The point is, it gives Timmy something to run an initiative on, and that after all is how he makes his living. Eyman’s 2003 initiative failed because his grassroots run about as deep as his conscience, and thus he couldn’t drum up enough drones to volunteer time and money to the signature drive. Since then Tim has attracted a sugar daddy, multi-millionaire investment banker Michael Dunmire of Woodinville, who has nearly singlehandedly financed Eyman’s initiatives (and lifestyle) over the past two years. Should Dunmire fail to learn a lesson from this year’s YATDCT fiasco — proving yet again that in our land of opportunity personal wealth is not an accurate measure of raw intelligence — it seems likely that Eyman will be able to buy this dog onto the ballot. Though considering how Timmy and the Fagans inexplicably managed to flush $400,000 of Dunmire’s money down the toilet this Spring, I guess anything’s possible.

So come November voters could be asked to cast an up or down vote on an initiative that promises greater fiscal accountability, authored by a man who couldn’t even be bothered to keep an accurate account of the signatures he bought with other people’s money. But then, what do you expect from a horse’s ass?

Initiative 920 will be on the ballot this fall.

What will happen if I-920 passes? Funds for primary and secondary education will be eliminated. Specifically, funds used for reducing K-12 class size, learning assistance programs, financial aid for Washington low- and middle-income college students, and about 8,000 enrollment slots at state universities will be eliminated. All that comes about through a repeal of the Washington State Estate Tax (or the Blethen Tax as Goldy likes to call it).

Dennis Falk is the sponsor and campaign director of I-920. Last June, Neil Modie of the Seattle P-I gave this brief biographical sketch of Dennis Falk,

…I-920’s sponsor, campaign manager and chairman, Dennis Falk, a former Seattle police officer and a longtime leader of the ultraconservative John Birch Society.
In 1978, Falk co-chaired Save Our Moral Ethics, an unsuccessful initiative campaign to repeal a Seattle law barring housing and employment discriminations against gays and lesbians.

“I think it certainly raises eyebrows that some of the leading corporate citizens in the state are funding a John Birch Society organizer, who is paying himself,” Christian Sinderman, a spokesman for the opponents and a veteran Democratic campaign operative, said Thursday. Falk is paying himself $950 a month from campaign funds to manage I-920.

So this initiative is being run by a homopobe who is the lead Bircher for Washington State. (Goldy previously profiled Dennis Falk and his Bircher ways.)

But, Dennis Falk is not just your ordinary ultra-right wing, anti-commie, homophobe, UN conspiracy theorist. Nope…Dennis Falk has a long history of involvement with more extremist groups. In 1986, before being kicked off the Seattle Police Force for “for shooting to death a fleeing, mentally retarded man,” Falk was involved in another movement.

From the Seattle Times (“Group Hoping For End To Income Tax,” Dee Norton. Feb 12, 1986. pg. D.2):

A group of Seattle police officers and firefighters who call themselves constitutionalists want the city to stop deducting federal income tax from their paychecks.

Seattle police officer Dennis Falk and Sgt. Keith Engstrom have joined with 15 to 20 other officers and firefighters in the effort. The group hopes a federal appeals-court case scheduled to be heard in Seattle starting today will bolster their position.
[…]

The income-tax war for Engstrom, Falk and the others became confrontational several years ago when they submitted their income tax withholding forms to the city. Falk said he was exempt from paying income taxes.

The group claimed that, because of punctuation, capitalization and spelling changes when the 16th Amendment was being ratified by the states, the federal income tax is void. The courts disagreed.

Who are the “constitutionalists?” At worst, the “constitutionalist anti-tax movement” includes the Freemen movement (originally in Montana) and the Posse Comitatus.

I’ve found no evidence that Falk is personally involved in any citizen militia or other violent movements (except…um…in his former capacity as a cop), but he is more broadly involved in the Christian Patriot movement, as this 1996 article suggests .

What is the Christian Patriot movement all about? From Wikipedia:

The Christian Patriot movement is a loose association of groups and people in the United States. These groups share common interests including conspiracy theories, a Christian theology which places special emphasis on eschatology and apocalyptic matters, and unorthodox interpretations of law, economics, and the United States Constitution. The movement is generally considered to be part of the political far right in the United States, and is best described as a movement which bridges the gap between the more mainstream evangelical Christianity and the more extremist Christian Identity movement, two movements which otherwise have little in common with each other.
[…]

The origins of the movement are debated. Some researchers believe the movement is rooted in a wide array of American populist and xenophobic movements, including the Know-Nothing movement, the Ku Klux Klan, Father Coughlin and U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy‘s anti-Communism, America First, George Wallace‘s segregationism, and Barry Goldwater‘s conservatism and libertarianism. Other researchers more specifically locate the movement’s origins in the rural economic depression and overwhelming debt in the 1980s combined with a feeling of disenfranchisement and anger among White males in response to the Civil Rights movement, and Feminism. The movement proper began in the late 1970s or early 1980s, with especially strong followings in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest, with the foundation of the Christian Patriot Association in Oregon and book publishers such as Emissary Publications. Posse Comitatus was a somewhat related albeit more radical movement which was also active at the time.
[…]

Some views commonly associated with The Christian Patriot movement, sometimes considered synonymous with the Militia Movement, are generally organized around a belief that world events are secretly controlled by some group such as the Illuminati, the Council of Foreign Relations, international banking families, Communists, Jews, the United Nations, or some combination of the above, and that conspiracy will culminate in a new world order conspiracy, which is either present or impending.

Christian Patriots hold to a strict constructionist interpretation of the U.S. Constitution, and are closely associated with the tax revolt movement. They may encourage people to get rid of their Social Security Number, believing it to be an unconstitutional national identity card, and to stop paying income taxes, based on their belief that the 16th Amendment to the United States Constitution is illegitimate.

Uh-huh…not just your ordinary tax dodger. We can probably best describe Dennis Falk as an ultra-right wing, anti-commie, homophobe, biggot, whack-job UN conspiracy theorist, anti-Semite, citizen activist.

It’s unbelievable that a right-wing wack-job like Dennis Falk could actually inspire a grassroots movement to get an initiative on the ballot.

It is unbelievable because…it’s not true. Initiative 920 is not based on anything resembling a grassroots movement. The majority of the funding or I-920 has come from Martin Selig who has given $807,500 to the I-920 campaign . Big bucks, to the tune of $357,500, have also come from Michael Dunmire (a.k.a. Eyman’s Sugar Daddy). And, as Goldy mentioned, $25,000 came from John N. Nordstrom for the signature drive.

Given Mr. Falks extremist views, one has to wonder whether these people actually know about Mr. Falk and his movement. Or are they part of the movement, too?

(Bonus question: Given the common connections through Dunmire, what is Eyman’s involvement in the Birchers and the Christian Patriot movement?)

Update: I was wrong about Dunmire donating to I-920—I searched the PDC database and got all results thinking they were restricted to I-920. Dunmire dumped his pile-o-money into I-917. I guess that lets Eyman off the hook. Also John N. Nordstrom’s contributions to I-920 to date have trippled to $75,000 from when Goldy wrote his earlier post. I had more to say about that at Jesus’ General Sunday night.

The results are final, and of the 266,034 signatures Tim Eyman submitted for I-917, the Secretary of State’s office rejected 46,859, leaving Tim 5,705 signatures shy of the 224,880 signature threshold. That’s a rejection rate of 17.6 percent… a pretty typical number.

As the Seattle Times’ David Postman reports, Sec. of State Sam Reed will have to ask the Legislature for a supplemental appropriation to cover the $125,000 cost of I-917’s month-long signature verification process. There has been some discussion in Postman’s comment thread about how we might raise the revenues to pay for Tim’s folly. My suggestion is an excise tax on the sale of fraternity watches.

Although I have a reputation as one of the state’s most vocal Eyman-bashers, I’ve actually been rather unenthused about covering Timmy’s latest debacle, leaving the task to other, equally-abled bloggers. There was a time when I thought the steady weight of bad (ie. accurate) press could crush Eyman’s operations by drying up his fundraising, and as Emmett posts over at Olympia Time, the number of contributions to Timmy’s campaigns have indeed plummeted from over 5,000 with 2001’s I-747, to around 700 for I-917. But just last year Tim picked up a sugar daddy in the form of multi-millionaire investment banker Michael Dunmire, and as long as he has one really rich guy willing to personal bankroll Tim’s initiatives (and rather comfortable lifestyle,) there’s really no way to keep him off the ballot. That is, unless Tim fucks up.

Which leads me to a post over at NPI, in which Andrew speculates on exactly how Tim managed to fuck up I-917. The most plausible explanation, Andrew thinks, is that Tim, well… fucked up. He thinks Tim simply miscounted, and by the time he discovered his mistake it was too late.

I think another plausible explanation is that Tim had a track record of $30 Car Tab initiatives to go on, and he simply stopped paying for signatures in early June because he assumed a certain quantity of volunteer signatures would pour in by the end of the month, like they had in the past. But believing his own press releases, Tim didn’t count on the degree to which his grass roots support had collapsed over the intervening years (as evidenced by the collapse of his grassroots fundraising,) and the expected signatures simply never materialized.

Of course, we’ll never know the truth because, at the risk of restating the obvious, Tim Eyman is liar — a simple fact of life reinforced when Andrew once again catches Timmy in yet another lie.

Tim stubbornly sticks by his claim that he really turned in over 300,000 signatures, and in a recent email to supporters he attempts to back this up by producing a week by week log of signatures gathered. For example, his weekly report shows that way back on June 6th of 2006, Tim had already collected 200,694 paid signatures, and 63,032 from volunteers.

Problem is, as Andrew astutely observes, Eyman gave a press conference back on June 6th in which he told a rather pissed off throng of reporters that he had successfully gathered exactly 142,613 signatures at that point in time.

As far as “Save Our $30 Tabs” Initiative 917 is concerned, in the past 4 months, our thousands of supporters have successfully gathered 142,613 signatures. We need an additional 140,000 signatures in the next 4 weeks. Reaching the halfway point in signatures is a huge milestone but it’s clear that we’ve got our work cut out for us. We need one last big blitz of signatures from our supporters before July 7th to qualify for the ballot.

He was either lying then, or lying now, or as I’m guessing, lying both times. But any way you look at it, Tim’s a liar.

Not that this is news or anything. But is does make you wonder why a supposedly respectable businessman like Michael Dunmire would continue his business relationship with Tim when he has so clearly proven to be both incompetent and dishonest?

I just got a call from 710-KIRO asking me to comment on the news that I-917, Tim Eyman’s Yet Another Thirty Dollar Car Tab Initiative has officially failed to qualify for the ballot. I’m not sure what soundbite they’ll use but I’m guessing I won’t come off sounding very surprised.

According to reports coming out of the Secretary of State’s office, 41,186 signatures have already been disqualified with about 30,000 left to verify. Considering Eyman only turned in 266,006 signatures, that leaves I-917 mathematically shy of the 224,880 signature threshold.

I’m not sure exactly how or why, but when it comes right down to it, Tim Eyman fucked up. Give me half a million dollars to buy signatures, and I could qualify for the ballot an initiative declaring September 11th “Osama bin Laden Day.” Yet somehow, Timmy flushed over $460,000 down the toilet, without reaching to the open wallet of Woodenville investment banker Michael Dunmire for the extra 40 grand needed to put I-917 over the top.

What a horse’s ass.

For years now Tim has been lauded as some kind of initiative guru but his track record is actually quite laughable. For the second time in three years Tim won’t have a single initiative on the state ballot, with only his over-reaching but superfluous performance audits initiative being approved by voters. Meanwhile, four out of five of his infamous anti-tax initiatives have subsequently been ruled unconstitutional.

The only thing remaining between Tim and political obscurity is Dunmire’s checkbook. Hard to imagine Timmy’s personal sugar daddy indefinitely throwing good money after bad.

“There’s no such thing as bad press. That’s just the reality.”
— Tim Eyman, June 5, Spokane Spokesman-Review

“I know that government can sometimes screw up, but I know that you can sometimes screw up. And I know that government can sometimes be dishonest, but I know you can sometimes be dishonest.”
— KVI host John Carlson to Tim Eyman, 07/24/06

Professional initiative sponsor Tim Eyman had lied to reporters once again, and man were they pissed off.

It was June 5, just one day before the deadline to turn in signatures for R-65, a referendum that would have put a repeal of our state’s gay civil rights statute on the November ballot. Tim had announced he would be dropping off petitions at the Secretary of State’s office, implying that a last minute push had gathered the requisite signatures. I suppose that would have been big news, so a sizable crowd of print, radio and TV reporters showed up for the event, many driving all the way from Seattle to Olympia that morning, cameras in tow.

But it was classic bait and switch. There were no R-65 petitions to be dropped off that morning (or ever.) Instead, ridiculously garbed in a rented Darth Vader costume, Tim mocked the assembled throng of journalists, refusing to answer questions about R-65 in favor of plugging I-917, his anti-Sound Transit initiative.

“Feel like you’ve been duped?” Eyman associate Mike Fagan asked reporters. “Well, you have.”

This wasn’t the first time Eyman had blatantly lied to the media — hell, it wasn’t even the first time he’d called a press conference under false pretenses. But while the journalists that day were openly hostile, Tim was unapologetic. To Tim, any stunt, any lie, is worth it if it gets his name in print or his face in front of the cameras. “There’s no such thing as bad press,” Tim told reporters that day, repeating a maxim that has defined his career. “That’s just the reality.”

Uh-huh.

The problem is, Tim and reality have been on tenuous terms for quite some time. It is one thing to spout simplistic, absolutist talking points when promoting a ballot measure, but it’s another thing entirely to actually start believing them. In fact, there is such a thing as bad press, and this week Tim has been receiving it in spades. And from some unlikely sources.

When Eyman turned in the petitions for I-917 he claimed to have collected over 300,000 signatures, more than enough cushion to virtually guarantee qualifying for the November ballot. Yet as I reported last week, Secretary of State Sam Reed’s office counted only 266,000… a number that puts the initiative on the bubble. Well, on Monday, Timmy held an early morning press conference to essentially accuse Reed — a fellow Republican — of losing or stealing 35,000 signatures.

And… well… apparently, nobody believes him. (Tim, that is.)

And I mean nobody. As the Seattle Times’ David Postman pointedly observed, even the reliably knee-jerk pages of (un)Sound Politics dumped on Tim, with the alliteratively named Eric Earling gently calling attention to Eyman’s “problems with the truth” while our good friend Stefan could only muster a meek rebuttal by accusing his co-blogger of inheriting an establishment position on transportation issues, but ignoring Earling’s critique of Tim’s honesty.

But it was in his formerly safe refuge of conservative talk radio where Timmy suffered the most abuse from hosts and callers alike. My 710-KIRO colleague Dori Monson, who is normally pretty quick to blame government incompetency and dishonesty for everything from moral decline to his morning halitosis, clearly wasn’t buying Timmy’s explanation that it was Reed who screwed up. And KVI’s John Carlson, who has worked with Eyman on past initiatives, all but accused Tim of lying. No wait… he did accuse Tim of lying.

I was particularly amused to hear Eyman talk about his own “meticulous record keeping” as evidence that it is his signature count that we should blindly trust rather than that of the SOS… incredible hubris coming from the guy who infamously couldn’t keep his personal finances separate from his campaign finances. But even funnier still is the fact that Eyman’s claims of “weekly reports” and “meticulous record keeping” is directly contradicted by his own statements in regard to R-65.

He wasn’t turning in any petitions. In fact, he said he didn’t know how many signatures had been gathered so far.

“Frankly, we have no idea,” Eyman said, standing there in his knee boots, cape and plastic codpiece. He then launched into a public appeal for supporters to bring their petitions to Olympia.

“Frankly, we have no idea.” And that was the day before the June 6 signature deadline. Yeah… talk about meticulous record keeping.

So either Tim is lying about his meticulous recording keeping now, or he was lying about not having meticulous record keeping then. Either way, he’s a liar. Which I suppose explains why those who know Tim best — you know, people like John Carlson — simply don’t believe him.

All this makes Eyman’s sugar daddy, Michael Dunmire look particularly naive, paranoid and foolish.

Naive? Dunmire, who says he’s preparing to write another $100,000 check to Eyman’s personal compensation fund, told Postman that he’s absolutely confident of the weekly signature reports he saw.

“They keep track. They live and die by them. They’re not wrong.”

Paranoid? What explains the 35,000 signature discrepancy?

“There are a lot of entities that don’t want I-917. They have their own techniques. They send out goon squads to intimidate petitioners. That never gets covered. We play it straight up.”

Foolish? When asked how much money he’d given Eyman this year, Dunmire wasn’t sure:

“Haven’t a clue. When I get a compulsion and think that’s a good place to make a contribution, I write a check. And I don’t keep track.”

He doesn’t keep track? How the fuck did this guy get to be a multi-millionaire?

So here we have an admitted liar who claims he has “no idea” how many signatures he has the day before they’re due, financed by some clueless rich guy who doesn’t “keep track” of the checks he writes… and he acts surprised when we take the word of Secretary of State Sam Reed over his?

The only question I have is not if Eyman is lying about the signature count, but when he started lying about it… and I can’t help but suspect that he knew he was shorting the SOS the day he turned in the petitions. For one of the more bizarre elements of this story is the small piece of notebook paper, date stamped by an SOS clerk, on which Tim hand wrote the number “300,353”… a document Tim calls a “receipt” that verifies his count.

Yeah, right. As if we’re all a bunch of idiots.

I’ve watched Tim turn in petitions for past initiatives, and I’ve never seen him provide or ask for a signature count “receipt” like this before. In fact, I asked Election Director Nick Handy if to his recollection this was standard practice for Eyman or any other initiative sponsor. Handy wrote back:

We are not familiar with Tim Eyman requesting a stamp on a document like this in the past, nor are we familiar with any other sponsors requesting this.

I understand that he was requesting the receptionist at Secretary of State’s Office in the Capitol Building to stamp this while he knew our staff was actually counting the pages at the Elections Office a few blocks away. So, he knew at the time that our office did not know how many signatures were being submitted.

So, um… if Eyman had never asked for a receipt like this before, and he knew that the Elections Office didn’t yet know the number of signatures… why did he bother having this document date stamped?

Because he thinks we’re all a bunch of idiots, that’s why. Because he knew he was short, and he knew he needed something to wave in front of reporters so that he could claim that he was being cheated. Because he thinks the press and the public are as dumb as his patron Michael Dunmire, some rich guy with the gall to think he knows best how to balance a state budget when he doesn’t even bother to balance his own checkbook.

In the end it’s not the lying that’s earning Tim all the bad press — reporters have long known he’s a liar. No, what’s pissing off journalists is that Tim is deliberately wasting their time, disrespecting their profession and insulting their intelligence.

Few people know more about what it takes to qualify an initiative for the ballot than John Carlson — indeed, it was John who saved Tim’s ass on I-200. And yet Tim had the nerve to go on John’s show and wave that scrap of paper around like it was meaningful? Tim had the gall to challenge John when asked why he didn’t photocopy his petitions… like every other experienced initiative sponsor does? Tim treated John and his audience like idiots, and they took him to the mat.

I have been criticized for vilifying Tim Eyman the man while his initiatives have continued to prove popular at the polls (though I should point out that in the three elections since I’ve come on the scene, Tim has only passed a single measure, the largely superfluous I-900.) And while it is true that most voters don’t cast their ballots based on who the initiative sponsor is, this critique misses the role of the press in promoting Eyman and his initiatives, particularly the inexplicable generosity our state’s newspapers have shown in granting him celebrity-status access to their op/ed pages.

Tim has repeatedly lied on his petitions, lied to voters, lied to his own contributors, and unapologetically lied to the press. It begs the question: at what point will Eyman’s credibility be so tarnished — so utterly destroyed — that op/ed editors finally start rejecting his frequent guest column submissions the way they do those of nearly every other crank and political crackpot?

Perhaps, that point has been reached now?

Things aren’t looking so good for I-917, Tim Eyman’s YATDCT (Yet Another Car Thirty Dollar Car Tab) initiative. Chris McGann reports in today’s Seattle P-I:

This month, despite spending $336,000 on signature gathering for I-917 this year, Eyman filed just 266,008 signatures on the July 7 deadline, roughly 41,000 more than he needed to get the measure on the ballot.

That means his signature failure rate — those signatures that are either duplicates or that are not from legal registered voters — cannot exceed 15.4 percent. Eyman’s track record indicates he is unlikely to make the cut.

Of the 14 signature drives Eyman has put his weight behind, he hasn’t had a signature failure rate below 16 percent.

Washington Secretary of State Elections Director Nick Handy said the signature failure rate for Eyman’s initiatives has ranged from 16.7 percent to 23 percent.

Why are Eyman’s signature failure rates so high? Well, as McGann reports, paid signature drives have a rejection rate of between 18 and 24 percent, whereas volunteer drives average between 11 and 16 percent. As we all know, Tim has relied on paid signature gatherers almost exclusively in recent years.

Of course we may not learn YATDCT’s fate until September, and it’s certainly possible it could squeak by. But even if it does make the ballot things still don’t look all that good for its prospect of passing. The latest Elway Poll, conducted in June shows anemic support for I-917:

Definitely Yes: 24
Probably Yes: 19
Undecided: 14
Probably No: 23
Definitely No: 21

While that may look pretty close to the, um… uninitiated, it is nowhere near the type of numbers initiative sponsors hope to have this early in the season. Remember, last year at this time I-912 — which also slashed transportation spending — led by a sizable margin in the polls… but went on to lose by a landslide in November. And the same folks who banded together to defeat I-912 are busy raising money to oppose I-917.

Either way it looks like Eyman’s sugar daddy, Michael Dunmire may have thrown away a few hundred thousand dollars. Still, you can be sure that Timmy will manage to get his cut.

He always does.

I was just pleasantly surprised to hear that Tim Eyman’s I-917, the YATDCT Initiative (“Yet Another Thirty Dollar Car Tab”), may not qualify for the ballot after all.

Eyman had claimed to have turned in over 300,000 signatures, yet the Secretary of State’s office has only counted about 266,000. That means a rejection rate of about 15.5 percent or more would put I-917 under the required 224,880 signature threshold.

How likely is that? According to past performance, moderately damn. The SOS reports that statistical samples of last year’s initiatives showed rejection rates of 13, 16, 17, 19, and 26 percent. The office is preparing to do a statistical sample of I-917, and if it’s close they’ll have to verify every last signature. It may be weeks before we know the outcome.

Why would Eyman inflate his reported count by about 34,000 signatures when he knew that the SOS would eventually announce the real number? I can only think of two explanations: either he’s a pathological liar or mind-numbingly incompetent.

Hmm. Let’s see. Huh. I guess, when push comes to shove, I’m leaning towards… both.

We all know Eyman’s a liar; there’s no question there. But the very fact that this initiative is even close should be a total embarrassment to a man who has made a career out of the initiative process. And it is doubly humiliating considering the fact that from all reports, Eyman virtually stopped gathering signatures by the first week in June.

All it takes to qualify for the ballot is enough money to buy the signatures, and in sugar-daddy Michael Dunmire, Eyman should have had all the money he needed. Dunmire invested over $300,000 in I-917, and unless there was some kind of late-campaign falling out it makes no sense that he would leave the initiative on the bubble for want of an additional $50,000.

If Eyman knew he hadn’t achieved the 20 percent cushion all campaigns shoot for, it was totally negligent of him not to ask for the money to finish the job right. And if Eyman actually miscounted the signatures — after all the money Dunmire had put into the effort — well that’s simply inexcusable.

If I were Dunmire I’d take my business elsewhere. One way or the other Eyman simply can’t be trusted to do the job, and there are plenty of other high-paid consultants who know how to hire signature gathering firms… not to mention perform simple math.

Oh… and there’s one other twist to this story that could come into play. As Steve Zemke has reported over on Majority Rules, Attorney General Rob McKenna has issued a somewhat twisted opinion that states that a new law that requires a signature gatherer declaration to be printed on the ballot, does not actually require the declaration to be signed. The SOS reports that about 3000 of I-917’s petitions came back without signed declarations — that could account for as many as 60,000 signatures, more than enough to keep I-917 off the ballot if disqualified if a court overules McKenna’s opinion.

Law suit anyone?

Initiative profiteer and cabaret performer Tim Eyman took his one-man-show back to Olympia yesterday, dressing up for the TV cameras as a very butch Buzz Lightyear. (I’m told Tim also does a dead-on Liz Minelli impersonation, but he’s saving that costume for the July 7th deadline.)

Eyman supposedly turned in 252,000 signatures on his anti-transit Initiative 917, and promised another 40,000 or so by the end of next week. Not at all surprising really, considering his prior statements, because I never trust a single thing he ever says.

Back on June 5, Eyman told reporters that he had collected only 142,000 signatures on I-917, a shockingly small number considering his army of paid signature gatherers had been on the streets since early February, and for much of that time, unopposed. This early season strategy permitted Eyman to pay some of the lowest street rates in the state — between $0.75 and $0.90 per signature — and yet through the end of May he’d already spent $324,800 on signature gathering efforts.

To spend that much money on so few signatures just doesn’t make sense. That’s about $2.30 per signature, a bizarre 200 percent markup for canvassing firm Citizens Solutions, Inc.

To further cast doubt on Eyman’s June 5th claim of only 142,000 signatures is the fact that reported sitings of I-917 had already trickled to virtually nil by that date. Indeed for much of June, while signature gatherers were out in full force pushing I-920, I-933 and other petitions, virtually none were carrying I-917. And yet now Eyman claims he’ll turn in 300,000 signatures by the deadline.

How could that possibly be? Well here’s a novel theory: Tim Eyman lied.

Of course, that begs the question “why?” What could Eyman possibly have to gain by deflating his June 5th numbers? He relies mostly on paid signature gatherers, so it couldn’t be some lame attempt at motivation.

Well, I have another theory which, lacking the subpoena power to open up the private books of Eyman and Citizens Solutions I cannot possibly prove, but… I think Tim’s ripping off his patron, Woodenville investment banker Michael Dunmire, who’d already contributed $307,700 to I-917 through the end of May.

See, here’s what I suspect is really going on. Eyman is paying his pal Roy Ruffino at Citizens Solutions a typical 100 percent markup per signature, so it’s probably costing the campaign about $1.50 each. Thus the $324,800 in signature gathering expenditures through May probably accounted for about 216,000 signatures.

Tim doesn’t have a volunteer organization to speak of, but he does mail out thousands of petitions, and surely, some of those do come back. So lets be generous and say he’s collected about 40,000 signatures from volunteers. That means that by June 5, Tim was likely comfortably past the 224,880 signature threshold and well on his way to hitting the 20 percent cushion everybody shoots for. But if he comes right out and says it, he can’t very well go back to Dunmire and ask for more money, can he?

So let me go out on a limb here and make a prediction: come the July 10th PDC filing we’re going to see another $100,000 or so contribution from Dunmire, and another $100,000 or so in expenditures to Citizens Solutions. But I think that these expenditures will mostly be for signatures that had already been gathered and paid for.

Again, I can’t prove it, but I’ve always suspected that Eyman has a financial stake in Citizens Solutions, or receives some kind of monetary “consideration”, and while none of this may be illegal it is certainly dishonest. Something is just not right here, and knowing Timmy, I can’t help but suspect that he’s cooking the books for personal gain. Again.

Think about it. What would it really cost to gather 150,000 signatures during the final three weeks of June, the busiest and most expensive time of the season? $300,000 bare minimum. So considering what Eyman had spent through May, and what he now says he’ll turn in next week, his June 7th claim was obviously total bullshit.

Now perhaps Dunmire doesn’t care. Perhaps Eyman told him from the start it would cost him about $400,000 to guarantee I-917 a spot on the ballot, and Dunmire doesn’t really care how it gets there or how much Eyman personally profits off the venture. But if this isn’t an attempt to deceive Dunmire I’m at a loss to explain Tim’s June 5th deception.

Perhaps Tim just plain enjoys lying?

I couldn’t go to bed without briefly commenting on the latest news from our state’s best known professional blowhard.

Supporters of an effort to overturn the state’s new gay civil-rights law sent out an e-mail Wednesday saying they’ve collected just a fraction of the signatures needed to get the measure to voters.

Tim Eyman sent the e-mail to supporters and the media, saying that only 8,718 signatures have been gathered. He needs 112,440 valid voter signatures by June 7 to get Referendum 65 on the November ballot.

Hmm. What to think?

Well, on the one hand, knowing what I know about Eyman’s organization (or lack thereof), it really wouldn’t surprise me to learn that R-65’s signature gathering efforts have been so anemic. But on the other hand… Timmy’s a pathological liar.

Further complicating the analysis is the fact that Eyman’s email touting his dismal performance is entirely out of character. Indeed, his usual M.O. is to flood supporters with upbeat proclamations that he’s “never seen this much excitement before,” but urging everyone to work (and give) harder because it always takes a “Herculean effort” to get any initiative on the ballot. Such guarded pollyannaisms are Tim’s norm, regardless of a measure’s actual public support.

I suppose it is possible this latest email could be a clever feint, but I fail to see the tactical advantage of portraying his campaign as weaker than it really is, and besides… Timmy isn’t really all that clever. So in the absence of even the tiniest scrap of evidence that the R-65 signature drive is gaining any traction whatsoever (you know, like actual people gathering actual signatures)… I’m going to have to reluctantly take Eyman at his word.

(Yuck.)

So… absent a sudden, six-figure infusion of cash, R-65 doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of making it onto the ballot.

Let’s look at the numbers. To qualify for the ballot Eyman must collect 112,440 signatures by June 7, but not all these will be valid. The Secretary of State recommends a cushion of 25 percent, but let’s be generous and say Tim can get by with only 10 percent, for a minimum target of 124,000 signatures.

As of yesterday, Eyman claimed to have collected only 8,718 signatures, while hateful, nutcase preacher Joe Fuiten claimed to have another 2,900. That left them about 112,000 shy of their target with only 42 days before the deadline. To put this in perspective, they’re now less than one-tenth towards their goal, more than halfway through the 90-day signature gathering period.

To qualify for the ballot, the R-65 campaign would have to collect about 2,700 signatures a day, 7 days a week, from now until June 7… not necessarily an impossible task if you can afford to hire an army of paid signature gatherers.

But Tim can’t.

For the past couple years, Timmy has essentially been a kept man, financing his campaigns (and his lifestyle) primarily through the generous support of one Michael Dunmire of Woodenville. His latest $30 Car Tab initiative is flush with Dunmire cash, but R-65… not so much. Eyman claims to have raised only $13,000 thus far, but most of this actually consists of loans from him and the Fagans. In fact, as of March 31, R-65 had raised only $1041.01 in cash contributions.

So what we’re looking at here is an all volunteer signature drive, a difficult endeavor under the best of circumstances, and something Eyman has never organized. I suppose the strategy, so to speak, was to rely on conservative church groups to gather signatures, and I guess the hope was that the effort would somehow organize itself spontaneously.

But with the exception of those rare ballot measures that simply catch fire, successful signature drives require either an immense amount of planning and organization, or an immense amount of money… and Eyman has neither. The truth is, without Dunmire’s money, Eyman brings little to the table other than a knack for garnering undeserved media attention, and a hateful measure like R-65 requires a helluva lot more resources than that.

I like to belittle Tim Eyman as a “professional” initiative sponsor, but the truth is, he really isn’t all that professional. Case in point, the breaking news that his volunteers and paid signature gatherers have wasted the past month collecting signatures on an invalid petition.

Steve Zemke of Majority Rules reports:

Tim Eyman’s current Initiative 917 petitions for $30 license tabs are invalid and violate Washington state law. He has resent “redesigned” petitions to his supporters but lies and tells them that signatures on the old petitions are “valid”.

This directly contradicts an announcement issued by the Washington State Secretary of State on Feb. 19, 2006 and posted on their website.

I cannot begin to tell you what a major, logistical fuck-up this is… and to add to his embarrassment, it’s not the first time. Steve caught the true meaning of Timmy’s lying letter because it was a near carbon-copy of one he sent to supporters back in 2003, when he inexcusably printed the wrong initiative text on the back of the I-807 petition. The campaign never recovered, and Timmy failed to qualify an initiative for the ballot.

It’s still too early in the signature gathering season to determine whether Tim’s latest screw-up is fatal, but it certainly will prove costly. As of the end of February, the I-917 campaign had already spent at least $90,000 on paid signature gathering, and over $25,000 on printing and mailing… all of it on totally invalid petitions. That’s about a quarter of the budget of a typical signature drive.

But at least as devastating is the chaos and confusion this creates amongst signers. Those who have already signed the invalid petition won’t know that they now must sign the newly “redesigned,” “better” (i.e. valid) petition. And if signature gatherers make an aggressive effort to ask people to sign again, they will likely end up collecting a large number of duplicate signatures.

Anyway, here’s how Eyman screwed up. In 2005 the Legislature amended the controlling statutes to require that all petitions carry a declaration from the signature gatherer attesting that people signed willingly and without compensation, and acknowledging the penalties for forgery and inducement. The new requirement went into effect January 1, 2006, but Eyman — the “professional” — apparently didn’t notice.

Well, apparently somebody else did, because the Secretary of State issued the following advisory on February 9:

It is the interpretation of the Office of the Secretary of State that this declaration must not only be printed on the back side of petition sheet, but must also be signed by the signature gatherer, and the signature gatherer’s name must be printed in the appropriate location. To interpret the law as not requiring the oath to be completed would render the new law meaningless. It is also the interpretation of the Office of the Secretary of State that lack of a signature on the declaration will cause the petition sheet to be rejected pursuant to RCW 29A.72.170(1).

Pretty clear, huh? Petitions lacking a properly completed declaration will not be counted.

Well, not according Timmy. In a letter to supporters sent out last week, Eyman wrote:

“All the signatures, whether on the old petition or redesigned petition, are valid and will count so get them filled out and sent back to me as soon as possible. […] But we ask everyone to start using the new, redesigned petition because it’s better.”

What a lying, sack of shit. Though, yeah… sure… the “redesigned” petitions are indeed “better”… in the sense that these petitions will actually count.

I checked with the SOS and they assured me that their interpretation was written in consultation with the Attorney General’s office. Rep. Toby Nixon has formally asked the AG for an official opinion, but it’s hard to see how a statute requiring this declaration could possibly be read to um… not require this declaration. Eyman is screwed.

And, like I said… a liar.

For the life of me, I simply cannot understand why anybody still takes this guy seriously. Eyman is a serial prevaricator who was caught red handed stealing from contributors, and lying about it afterwards. He has absolutely no grassroots organization whatsoever, and now manages to raise less than $100,000/initiative from his once vaunted contributor list. He can only afford the paid signature gatherers that qualify his initiatives for the ballot through the underwriting of a single, multimillionaire contributor, Michael Dunmire of Woodenville… but to call Timmy a “professional” would be to ignore the inexcusably amateur way he runs his campaigns.

Let’s be honest. If Timmy had been hired to run the signature drive for I-917, and had screwed up big time like this… he would have been fired. And this from the most prolific initiative sponsor in state history… I mean, even my dog eventually learns simple tasks through repetition.

Without Dunmire’s money and the inexplicable attention the traditional media still lavishes on him, Eyman would be nothing but just another lying, angry, right-wing blowhard. Perhaps that’s qualification enough to earn him a spot blogging on (un)Sound Politics, but it certainly doesn’t warrant the guest-column-on-demand status he currently enjoys in our state’s major newspapers.

It is not uncommon to read editorial boards railing against Eyman’s stupid, ill-conceived initiatives. Well here’s a hint guys: stop giving this lying, incompetent, self-serving horse’s ass so much damned free press!