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As Robert Reich points out here, under-employment is yet more yucky icing on a very nasty cake of unemployment figures. (Okay, Reich is far more eloquent and would never likely come up with such a pathetic analogy.) But still–yikes. From Bloomberg:

More Americans than ever worked only partial days in November as the deepening recession prompted companies to cut full-time employment.

The number of Americans saying they worked part-time last month due to economic reasons — either because their hours were cut or they couldn’t find full-time jobs — surged to 7.32 million, the most since records began in 1955, from 6.7 million in October, the Labor Department reported today.

The increase in part-time workers helped prevent the jobless rate — which rose to 6.7 percent last month from 6.5 percent in October — from climbing even more. Counting part- timers who would prefer full-time work, as well as discouraged workers who are no longer looking for jobs, the jobless rate would have jumped to 12.5 percent from 11.8 percent in October.

And to answer the question Reich asks in the title of his post, um yeah, it’s a Depression. I know it’s a matter of semantics, but since Karl Rove and Karen Hughes are busily trying to re-write history even as it happens, I think it’s only fair we get Bush’s name attached to this last bitter pill.

I propose we call it the “Bush Financial Depression,” at least for now. Hopefully it will not become Great Depression II. If things get that bad nothing can save one shred of the Bush-Cheney legacy.

At this point it’s not about blame. It’s about not listening in the future to people who have been clearly and repeatedly wrong about every last damn thing, military, economic and diplomatic. Basically, when a Republican opens their mouth, a traditional journalist should have a mental checklist about how many times that person has been utterly and completely wrong. Eight long years of right wing fantasy have led us to this point, and fantasy is something we can no longer afford.

So when you hear that state and local governments are facing tough times, this is what it means to communities. From The Columbian’s Michael Andersen:

What will change the most?

Probably public health, code enforcement, drug and mental health treatment and (don’t scoff) the county’s internal computer team.

The public health department will change radically, laying off a third of its staff by the end of 2009 and instead trying to recruit nonprofits to do the same work for less pay. The county will lose three of its seven code enforcement officers. Nobody knows yet where the cuts will come in drug and mental health treatment, because they depend on state decisions next year. And with five positions cut from the computer team, all the county’s computers will crash more and employees won’t be trained as well in using computers.

Will any county services improve?

The county sheriff’s road patrols will add four new deputy positions in 2010. The sheriff says that’s not enough to keep up with the population, so it’s an open question.

One thing worth noticing is that large portions of relatively urban areas are not incorporated in Clark County. We’re basically an unincorporated city being governed by county government, replete with all the resulting tension between urban and rural needs.

This area includes Salmon Creek, Felida and Hazel Dell, if you know the geography here. Lots of houses, schools and shopping areas were built in these places in the last fifteen years, but because of historical animosity towards Vancouver, the odds are the city will never be able to annex. Past efforts to form a separate city have failed miserably.

So we’re stuck being governed by a three-member county commission, the same system of government that we had at statehood. Right now control of that body is technically still in doubt as we await the results of an automatic recount in a county commission race, a recount which is being held up by a computer glitch. Most observers expect, though, that Republican Tom Mielke will hang on to win by about 200 votes.

We have all the challenges of other urbanized areas: traffic, crime, a need for more family wage jobs, etc. But our form of government is the same as when everyone grew peaches for a living. Don’t know if there were a ton of untreated mentally ill folks wandering around peach orchards back in the day, but it looks like one possible future for life in Clark County. Such are the costs of the Bush Depression.

Gov. Chris Gregoire and AG Rob McKenna have just issued a joint, bipartisan statement on Bill O’Reilly’s manufactroversy over the atheist display in the state Capitol:

“Last year, after a federal lawsuit was filed against the state of Washington by the Alliance Defense Fund, the state’s Department of General Administration set forth a policy allowing individuals or groups to sponsor a display regardless of that individual’s or group’s views.

“The Legislative Building belongs to all citizens of Washington state, and houses the state Legislature, as well as the offices of several state-elected executives, including the governor. The U.S. Supreme Court has been consistent and clear that, under the Constitution’s First Amendment, once government admits one religious display or viewpoint onto public property, it may not discriminate against the content of other displays, including the viewpoints of non-believers.”

So there you have it.  I guess my pseudo-legal analysis of the issue was basically right.

It’s a shame that even their communications staffs had be distracted by bullshit like this when there are issues of so much greater import to address, but apparently the’ve been fielding hundreds of phone calls—mostly from out of state—after O’Reilly attempted to bully the governor by posting her phone number on national television.

Whatever.

Both Gregoire and McKenna have more important things to do, and if I were them I wouldn’t pay any more attention to Billo and his annual War on Christmas bluster.

“It’s official:”

… for the last year, the United States economy has been in recession.

No shit, Sherlock.

Of course the “nonpartisan” National Bureau of Economic Research waited until after the election to make the pronouncement.  You know, God forbid accurate information influence an election one way or the other.

Dollars to donuts it doesn’t take a year to announce the end of the recession.

I know I’m supposed to be angry and offended and all that, but I kinda agree with Paul Krugman:

A thought I’ve had: there have been some complaints from movement progressives about the centrism/orthodoxy of Obama’s economics appointments. To some extent this was unavoidable, I think: someone like the Treasury secretary has to be an experienced hand who can deal with Wall Street, and I haven’t heard anyone proposing particular individuals with clearer progressive credentials to hold that position.

And couple thoughts of my own.  First, for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the Obama administration looking like a retread of the Clinton administration, with the very notable exception of the growth in economic disparity, the Clinton administration did a pretty good job managing the economy, transforming record deficits into record surpluses, and presiding over one of the strongest economic expansions in recent history.

But it’s also important to note that these are smart people, and it would be a mistake to expect Obama’s economic appointees to attempt to duplicate the policies of 1992.  A lot has changed over the past 16 years, a lot of mistakes were made (in both administrations), and a lot of lessons have been learned.

While the Clintonistas, under the direction of Robert Rubin, focused on balancing the budget, Obama’s appointees, many of whom are Rubin protegees, have made it clear that economic stimulus will be the top priority, even at the cost of massive deficit spending.  Indeed, even Rubin has publicly stated his support of job creation now, and balanced budgets later.

So no, I’m not all too concerned with the centrist bent of Obama’s Rubinesque economic team.  Smart, accomplished, well intentioned people… that’s always a good start.

In the previous post, Goldy speculates about federal money flowing to the states as part of a broader spending package, and specifically about whether Gov. Chris Gregoire is headed to D.C. to advocate for such spending. The answer surely is: maybe!

At Political Buzz, Joe Turner wonders if we will see a return to revenue sharing, where the feds don’t put strings on things.

When I started covering Pierce County government in 1981, cities and counties were still getting no-strings-attached money from Uncle Sam. According to Wikipedia, revenue sharing existed from 1972 (the last bad recession) until 1987. It lost favor under President Reagan.

But it appears to be making a comeback, and Washington state workers no doubt will rejoice if it does. Basically, the federal government gives cities, counties and states money to pretty much what they please. That means Gov. Chris Gregoire and the Legislature could head off some of those layoffs that probably are in their future.

I watched Obama’s press conference this morning; there are not a lot of details yet. Basically the message seems to be “if it works, great, if it doesn’t work, it’s gone.” Another point seemed to be that spending at the state level is fine, but it has to be part of a national economic game plan.

So I’m expecting Obama’s team to come up with plans to get money out to the states, but not necessarily without strings. I’m just guessing, but increasing block grants might be another way to go. A short term aid package for states to cover existing shortfalls would make sense, however. There’s really no sense in heightening unemployment misery by ignoring what’s happening at the state and local level.

There’s a little bit of a clue about what might happen in this article from Stateline:

Obama didn’t specifically mention states or a dollar-figure in his remarks over the weekend or during his Nov. 24 press conference in which he unveiled his economic team, including New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner as treasury secretary. But before he was elected, Obama called for at least $25 billion in nonspecific state relief and another $25 billion to help states build and fix highways, roads, bridges, airports and rail systems.

Honestly, this is why we want smart, qualified people running the government, instead of anti-intellectual stink tank cretins and talk show hosts. It actually does matter, a lot, what happens next. A good plan might get us through the next few years with a lot of economic pain, but with recovery on the horizon. A bad plan, well, you know. It would be very bad.

We’re all free to raise questions and kick things around, as we should in a democracy, but we need as many good ideas we can get right now. There are still a few conservative voices out there warning about over-spending, and at least that’s a legitimate concern to raise if it’s done in a sincere fashion.

The consensus seems to be we simply must have a large stimulus package, though, and we’ll have to sort out how to pay for it both as we go and in the future.

One thing Obama seemed to be getting at this morning was that wasteful pork will really have to be axed this time. No more cheap talk. You can count on the noise machine to wail mightily if anyone starts pointing out the horrendous inefficiencies in the Defense Department, for example, but as Obama said this morning, every part of the federal budget must be examined.

If the Obama team can focus like a laser beam on getting the most “bang for their stimulus buck,” as they say they are doing, it should help. At this point I could care less if the good ideas come from progressives, moderates, conservatives or little green men from Mars.

I doubt anyone can know how much it might help, but the desperation apparent in this move should be obvious. From Bloomberg:

The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve will unveil as soon as today a lending program to shore up the consumer-finance market, using money from the government’s $700 billion rescue, two people familiar with the effort said.

The Treasury and the Fed will help fund new loans packaged into securities for sale to investors, the people said. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who scheduled a press conference for 10 a.m. New York time, said two weeks ago that he wants to spur lending for automobile purchases and college education while also reducing the cost of credit-card debt.

If we really need something like a half trillion dollar (or more) in stimulus spending per year, as learned economists seem to be suggesting everywhere, taking some of the leftover $700 billion and using it to provide cheap loans sounds pretty much like a Band-Aid. Consumer confidence is completely shattered. Hard to see how it improves auto sales much. Maybe people pay off some credit cards and take some classes.

But, it is something. The Fed can’t lower interest rates to any effect, so what the heck.

Republican incumbent Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland has finally conceded the race to Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark.

In a phone call to The Daily World this morning, Sutherland said he was disappointed with the loss, which he blamed on the voters of King County.

“At this juncture, the people of King County have spoken,” Sutherland said. “As a rule of thumb for Republicans, you do well in the rest of the state and do at least 40 percent in King County and you can win. It’s been that way for the last couple of decades and it’s just getting worse.”

Yeah, well, it’s an odd thing about America, but we tend to apportion votes by the person rather than the square mile, and, well, King County is where the largest chunk of the people live.  In fact, while Goldmark only won five of 39 counties, those five counties still account for about 45% of the electorate, so it wasn’t nearly as narrow a win as Sutherland bitterly makes it out to be.

Still, to Sutherland’s credit, he did concede only two weeks after the election, which is about three years, eleven and a half months quicker than Dino Rossi.

Shorter John Laird, editorial page editor for The Columbian: it’s all George W. Bush’s fault.

Still, if Clark County is red, how do we explain Barack Obama carrying the county by 6 percentage points? That question is easy to answer. This result doesn’t say nearly as much about Obama or about Clark County as it says about President George W. Bush. In fact, I suspect a lot of America’s breathless infatuation over Obama might actually be — deep down — an opinion about Bush.

If my theory is correct, then Bush’s drop in local popularity has been dramatic, almost pathetic. He carried the county by 5.4 percentage points in 2004 and by 4 points in 2000.

For what it’s worth, there is likely a kernel of truth there, as “Brand Republican” has been severely damaged, not only by Bush but by Republican extremism up and down the ticket. This is a hard blow for some Republicans, who seem to invest an inordinate amount of psychic energy in being perceived as the dominant tribe. A lot of the rash and uncivil statements emanating from the conservative noise machine are likely the product of this slightly strange fetishization.

For several cycles now a prominent local Republican Party activist has been repeatedly quoted in the newspaper saying, essentially, that Clark County is a Republican county. This was never all that true, as effective Democratic candidates like Brian Baird and Craig Pridemore, and many others, were elected to office. Candidates with good name ID (especially incumbents) always do well most places, especially here in a county dominated by media from another state. There’s a good reason the landscape is dominated by 4 x 8 political signs during election season.

Clark is a suburban swing county overall, with predictable party trends in the more urban and rural areas. Incumbents are hard to beat, meaning most of the big battles are over open seats. In that regard, the Democrats picked up a state House seat in the “swingy” 17th LD with the victory of Tim Probst, and might or might not pick up a county commissioner seat pending a likely recount. The more rural 18th LD is completely a lost cause as it is currently drawn, and the opposite is true in the urban 49th LD.

So the real issue for Democrats here is how to continue recruiting quality candidates who will be in position to take advantage of open seats.

Correction– Technically, Democrats would not be picking up a county commission seat in Clark County if Democrat Pam Brokaw defeats Republican Tom Mielke after a recount, as the retiring incumbent is Betty Sue Morris, D-BIAW. But in real world terms it would be a pickup for Democrats if Brokaw won.

Yesterday’s rally against Prop 8 was a really amazing event. I especially liked the hand made signs. Here are as many slogans as I could capture excluding signs that were just quotes, duplicates, and the professional ones. If I left yours out, sorry.

1st class taxpayer 2nd class citizen
1847: persecuted 2008: persecutor
A “Happily Ever After” belongs to EVERYONE
“Always a Bridesmade Never a Bride” Should not be Law
And the pursuit of happiness…unless gay
Ban Republican Marriage
Being 2nd Class is Sooo Gay!!!
Canada H8’s Prop 8
Church of Later Day Snakes
Class 2nd
Civil marriage is a civil right
Civil unions are not enough
Divorce at least you get a chance
Don’t make my family illegal (jerks)
Don’t tread on us.
Don’t Worry My Gay Marriage Won’t Affect Your Straight Divorce
Ending racism is a gay fight – freedom from racism is a gay right
Enough Already!
Equal Rights 4 All
Equal Rights Now
Equality is my right
Equality is not a religion
Focus on your own family
Gay Straight Black White Marriage is a CIVIL right
Get Mavricky Vote for Equality
Get on the Love Boat
Human rights are universal
I DO believe in the sanctity of love
I Support love
Jesus had two dads
Jesus Practiced Acceptance & Love… Why Can’t You?!
Just married in CA 10/6/08
Keep your religion out of my marriage
Lady Liberty is my lesbian mother! I’m her gay son!!
Lady Liberty is not a social conservative!
Legislating discrimination sucks
Love, Commitment & Family are HUMAN RIGHTS!
Love in all forms
Love makes a family!
Marriage is a civil right
Marriage strengthens society
Married July 31, 2008
Missionary accomplished
Mormon cash lied. A nation cried
No discrimination in the constitution
NO H8
No majority vote on minority rights
No more Mr. Nice Gay
Our love and commitment are here to stay…
Olympia! Give us our rights
Right to love
Save me from the Christian Taliban
Separate is not equal
Stand on the side of LOVE
Stand up you may be NEXT!
Stop the H8!
STR8 Against H8
Tax the Church!
This is about basic human rights
We are all equal
We don’t shit in your toilet…Don’t piss on our Civil Rights
Welcome to America where everyone is created equal – restrictions apply where prohibited
What’s Next? Our Wedding Gifts?
When Do We Vote On Your Marriage?
When will love conquer hate? (just asking)
White anti-racist queers for JUSTICE- not just us
Yes we can have equal rights

The NY Times Timothy Egan takes his “fellow beleaguered journalists” to task for failing to ask hard questions about Sarah Palin’s Alaska:

Between big servings of moose chili and self-servings of blather, Governor Sarah Palin has yet to explain the disturbing message that our 49th state sent to the Outside with last week’s election.

Nearly half the voters want to send a felon back to the United States Senate – you go, crook! And a clear majority is backing one of the most ethically tainted congressmen in the land – power to the porkster!

Oh, and all that stuff about wealth-redistribution: Only one state relies on a truly socialistic model for its welfare, and with falling oil prices, Palin’s People’s Republic of Alaska is facing an enormous fiscal crisis.

This tax-free state, where every man, woman and baby gets an annual check as part of their share of redistributed oil wealth, may have to actually start paying for itself.

But none of this has crossed the glossy lips of the governor. As Palin was spreading a cartoon narrative of herself as a caribou-huntin’ gal on the lookout for creeping Marxism while slaying the bad boys of the Far North, the state that she governs was stepping all over her message.

Is it at all ironic that Seattle’s best journalist doesn’t write for a Seattle publication?

What the hell is going on with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R)? Has he, too, become a shameless propagandist?

Last night (Wed.) on FOX News’ Hannity and Colmes Pawlenty said:

Minnesota has a reputation of clean and fair and good elections. […] However finding 32 ballots in a trunk of a car and supposedly forgetting that they were there is suspicious.

The “32 ballots in the trunk of Minneapolis Elections Director Cindy Reichert’s car” story is a fabrication (or, a bizarre misunderstanding) by one of Sen. Norm Coleman’s lawyers.

David Brauer, a political reporter at MinnPost, documents the rumor’s origin and demise:

Reichert is all too happy to provide an explanation. She says the “car ballot” story is “just not true,” painting a picture of normal balloting procedures twisted into something grotesquely misleading.

The “car ballot” story emerged Saturday from the mouth of Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, who, according to AP, told reporters, “We were actually told ballots had been riding around in her car for several days, which raised all kinds of integrity questions.”

Knaak never provided a source and did not return two MinnPost calls for comment. However, he was already backing off his story at the same press event. As that day’s Pioneer Press noted, “Knaak said he feels assured that what was going on with the 32 ballots was neither wrong nor unfair.”

It’s odd that Pawlenty continues to propagate a rumor that was, essentially, retracted by the rumor’s creator on the same day it was created.

At this point, those who continue to spread the rumor are either willfully ignorant, or are happy to lie in order to “catapult the propaganda.” Which is it for Pawlenty?

Earth to Washington, D.C. Earth to Washington, D.C. Come in Washington, this is Earth. Over.

Calculated Risk quotes Campbell Surveys on plunging house sales

According to the survey firm, Campbell Communications, buy-side agents responding to the survey indicated a 19% drop in completed transactions between the months of September and October. Declines were especially severe for sales of non-distressed properties in states where home prices have fallen rapidly during the past year, agents indicated. For example, buy-side agents indicated a 22% decline in non-distressed sales in Florida, a 32% drop in California, and a 51% drop in Michigan.

Washington, D.C., we’ve got a situation here.

The Columbian reports that foreclosures have spiked again in Clark County, which had previously (sorta kinda) weathered the storm okay.

Local foreclosure rates had appeared to be leveling off in September, when 144 foreclosures were filed in Clark County, up just 3 from the same month the year before. But the lull — down from more than 290 foreclosures filed here in August — was short-lived.

The number of Clark County homes in foreclosure in October jumped by more than 63 percent over September numbers.

The county’s foreclosures in October accounted for 5.5 percent of the 4,278 foreclosures filed statewide. Washington had the 17th-highest foreclosure rate out of 50 states, according to RealtyTrac, which incorporates data filed during several stages of foreclosure. Oregon ranked No. 16.

Washington, D.C., you need to stop fooling around now. You there, Washington, D.C.?

Naomi Klein spells things out in an article for Rolling Stone.

Unfortunately, many of the banks appear to have no intention of wasting the money on loans. “At least for the next quarter, it’s just going to be a cushion,” said John Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch. Gary Crittenden, chief financial officer of Citigroup, had an even better idea: He hinted that his company would use its share of the cash — $25 billion — to buy up competitors and swell even bigger. The handout, he told analysts, “does present the possibility of taking advantage of opportunities that might otherwise be closed to us.”

And the folks at Morgan Stanley? They’re planning to pay themselves $10.7 billion this year, much of it in bonuses — almost exactly the amount they are receiving in the first phase of the bailout. “You can imagine the devilish grins on the faces of Morgan Stanley employees,” writes Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Weil. “Not only did we, the taxpayers, save their company…we funded their 2008 bonus pool.”

Uh, Washington, D.C., we got a lot of citizens starting to turn blue here. Copy?

Reuters reports on higher than expected job losses.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the September 11, 2001 attacks, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.

U.S. imports fell by a record 5.6 percent in September and exports suffered their steepest drop since September 2001, narrowing the monthly trade deficit slightly more than expected, a U.S. Commerce Department report showed on Thursday.

Come in, D.C. Don’t know if you copy but it looks like people are starting to think about taking matters into their own hands. Situation critical. Repeat. Situation critical.

What would happen if a bunch of people just stopped paying their mortgages in order to get a better deal? Irvine Housing Blog relays admittedly anecdotal evidence from an acquaintance who is a real estate agent:

My friend, a very smart person, math thesis of the year award winner in college, with a masters degree in math, vice principle at a high school making excellent money, expresses to his neighbor that he is upset that his home is worth $100,000 less than he paid for it, however his neighbor then explains that he received a $100,000 principle write down by not paying his mortgage and negotiating a loan modification. Stopping by his house a few weeks ago on the way back from Las Vegas my friend explained this to me and said he thinks that he is going to get a modification as well.

I hope you copy D.C.

Everyone on board, prepare for impact.

Earth out.

The fledgling right-wing propaganda war continues in the Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken. As of yesterday’s midnight deadline, Franken trails Coleman by 206 out of 2.9 million votes.

The latest error-prone Wingding propaganda piece comes from Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. writing an opinion piece for Fox News. Lott, a right-wing academic, begins his article by insinuating something sinister behind the changing vote tallies:

[On Wednesday morning,] Senator Norm Coleman led Al Franken by what seemed like a relatively comfortable 725 votes. By Wednesday night, that lead had shrunk to 477. By Thursday night, it was down to 336. By Friday, it was 239. Late Sunday night, the difference had gone down to just 221 — a total change over 4 days of 504 votes.

Amazingly, this all has occurred even though there hasn’t even yet been a recount.

It is hard to know if this is genuinely spin or whether Lott is simply unaware of elementary elections procedures. Changes in vote totals are almost guaranteed in the days leading up to initial certification. There are numerous reasons for this, including ongoing tallying of absentee and provisional ballots, correction of tabulating and reporting errors, and resolution of disputed ballots. In Minnesota, however, the changes are mostly corrections of tabulating and reporting errors because absentee ballots must be received by election day, and with election day registration possible, provisional ballots are not used. (In 2006, Minnesota had no provisional ballots cast. I am unclear whether provisional ballots play any role in Minnesota’s new voter challenge procedures.) Some ballots do remain uncounted at the time the polls close on election day:

Ramsey County found 55 absentee ballots which arrived on time to be counted on election day, but which were not. Those results have now been included in the new totals.

Counting these ballots will obviously affect subsequent reporting.

Contrary to Lott’s insinuations, the only thing unusual about these changes is that people are paying attention:

…county auditors are finding minor errors as they’re proofing their unofficial numbers before shipping them to St. Paul, said John Aiken, spokesman for Secretary Mark Ritchie.

“The counties are trying to be as accurate and transparent as possible. You’ll see fluctuations here and there,” Aiken said.

It happens all the time in every election, he said. The only difference is that for most elections, the margin is much wider and the election less prominent. Here, he said, “The eyes of the nation are on this Senate race.”

Lott goes on to “analyze” the errors, and he offers alarmist rhetoric that overlooks the specifics of known cases. For example, one case of an additional 100 votes for Franken simply reflected a typo:

In Pine County, an election official accidentally entered 24 votes for Franken on Tuesday night instead of the 124 he actually received. The mistake was caught on Thursday and the numbers changed, said Jim Gelbmann from the Secretary of State’s office.

In another case, the change reflected a failure to report any result at all:

In northeastern Minnesota, the town of Buhl’s ballots had been cast but not counted in statewide totals. It turns out election officials there counted the votes but never called them in. […]

Election official Mike Buchanan said that when Buhl election officials arrived a work at 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, “we received a phone call from St. Louis County — they wanted our election numbers.”

They got them.

Coleman received 152 votes in Buhl and Franken got 343, for a difference of 191 in the Democratic candidate’s favor. Not enough to change the results, but enough to tighten the contest even more.

Sinister! Sinister, I tell you!

Lott’s specifics-free discussion of the precincts from which Franken’s votes came ends with this bit of factually challenged, pure Wingnut propaganda:

It was also true that precincts that gave Obama a larger percentage of the vote were statistically more likely to make a correction that helped Franken.

This is the kind of statement that somehow seems authoritative—I mean, using words like “statistically more likely” and all. But it is bullshit technobabble. Statisticians use the term “statistically more likely” to refer to a result that exceeds some benchmark by an amount that is (probabilistically) outside of the sampling error. When the entire population is surveyed (as, say, when all voters in an election are considered), there is no sampling error. A difference is just a difference (or every difference is statistically significant). So Lott either doesn’t understand statistics (doubtful) or he is trying to bullshit us.

Lott offers more sloppy propaganda:

The recent Washington State 2006 gubernatorial recount is probably most famous for the discovery of ballots in heavily Democratic areas that had somehow missed being counted the first and even second time around. Minnesota is already copying that, though thus far on a much smaller scale, with 32 absentee ballots being discovered in Democratic Hennepin County after all the votes had already been counted.

In fact, the 32 absentee ballots in Hennepin County (and the 55 absentee ballots found in Ramsey County) are part of the first count. Even so, it is possible additional ballots will be found in the Minnesota recount. What of it? The whole purpose of a recount to ensure that every ballot is counted and counted correctly. Ironically, it was Republican Dino Rossi’s campaign in the 20064 Washington state race that ended up hunting down additional ballots—after the second recount.

Lott then goes on to downplay expectations that the recount will affect much about the election. He poo-poos an AP article about the magnitude of the undervote, and its possible significance. He incorrectly suggests that voters are warned about undervotes in Minnesota. This is simply incorrect—overvotes are flagged, not undervotes.

Optical scan machines do make mistakes. Minnesota estimates this error rate after each election by conducting audits in about 5% of precincts. The 2006 results gave a rate of 53 errors in 94,073 votes cast. Indeed, in Ramsey County yesterday, the machine audit found Franken gaining one vote out of 7,700 counted.

Lott uses his misunderstanding of the optical scanning machines to raise the same old tired talking points against “voter intent”:

There should be no role to divine voters’ intentions. If a voter wanted a vote recorded for a particular race, the machine tells him whether his vote in all the races was counted.

Yes, there really is a role for discerning voter intent—it’s the law. Minnesota, as a voter intent state, provides clear guidelines on how voter intent is to be discerned.

Finally, Lott offers a Wingnut taking point that has no place in this discussion:

With ACORN filing more than 43,000 registration forms this year, 75 percent of all new registrations in the state, Minnesota was facing vote fraud problems even before the election. Even a small percentage of those registrations resulting in fraudulent votes could tip this election.

Un-huh. I suppose it is possible that Lott has been in a vacuum and actually believes this crap. More likely, he knows better, but just throws this out as Wingnut bullshit designed to cast doubt on the election. Specifically, he is exploiting the widely publicized fact that some ACORN employees have made up registrations (i.e. they have defrauded ACORN, who pays them for registering new potential voters)—information that has come to light in some cases because ACORN has reported what they believe are fake registration forms. Unless Lott believes that dishonest workers subsequently go on to recruit people to go vote as Micky Mouse, there is no link between real people registered by ACORN and “vote fraud problems” at the polls.

So…that is the latest in wingnuttery over this race. Get ready for the howls of “election fraud” when the voter crediting numbers turn out to be less than the numbers of ballots cast.