Rasmussen: Murray 49%, Rossi 46%

I guess I was too busy paying attention to real stuff today to notice that Rasmussen dumped a new poll in Washington’s U.S. Senate race:  Sen. Patty Murray 49%, Dino Rossi 46%.

That’s the exact same margin by which Rasmussen had Rossi leading less than two weeks ago.

Whatever that means.

Update (Darryl): I take a closer look at the poll here.


  1. 2

    jcricket spews:

    This is par for the course for Rasmussen. They lean Republican, doing their best to influence voters and donors toward R candidates until about two weeks out from an election, when it’s apparent that their candidates are not prevailing. Then they finally fall in line with the honest pollsters. Perhaps so when it is all said and done, they can have some positive polling results to sell their services at the next election cycle.

    Even the R Tools have to make a buck.

  2. 3

    You know your a limp wristed girly-man metrosexual when.... spews:

    …..you go for a beer or glass of wine at Starbucks.


    I mean thats just TEH GEHY.

    as far as the polls go..who fucking cares? The only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. The rest of this crap is just sideshow drama designed to keep the simple minded entertained.

  3. 6

    proud leftist spews:

    Nice work. Yet, she, and, apparently, a helluva lot of Nevadans, believe she is qualified for the United States Senate. Remarkable.

  4. 8

    Bluecollar Libertarian spews:

    Razzy uses the telephone for surveys. So is that the old traditional land line or cell phone or a combination?

    Bet it is the old land line which suggest they are not getting anything close to accurate numbers. Well see.

  5. 9

    lauramae spews:

    Dear #3 It is you’re, a contraction for you are.

    Thus it would be You know you’re a limp wristed girly-man…. . Other wise it is a possessive, as in your limp wristed girly-man.

  6. 12

    Michael spews:

    The Inlander also throws a great zinger at Cathy McMorris Rodgers while endorsing Daryl Romeyn:

    Rodgers likes to say Republicans lost their way under George W. Bush, and we couldn’t agree more (although, if memory serves, she was right there with him, voting the party line). The trouble is, they’re still lost — it’s just say “no” on everything, with hopes of regaining a majority. It’s a cynical, sad strategy when you consider how badly the nation needs all its leaders to work together to meet our considerable challenges.

  7. 13

    correctnotright spews:

    The Seattle Times actually acknowledges that Rossi and the republicans are lying about the stimulus bills:

    If republicans lie often enough – they think that it makes it true. Goebbels would be proud of these republicnas for manipulating the media and repeating the BIG LIE.

  8. 14

    rhp6033 spews:

    # 3 said: “…as far as the polls go..who fucking cares? The only poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day. The rest of this crap is just sideshow drama designed to keep the simple minded entertained.”

    I had to chuckle at this one. For the past three months the trolls here have posted links to Rasmussen polls, shouting “Patty Murray is going DOWN”, and predicting a Rossi win. Any discussions to the contrary were met with continued reference to Rasumussen polls, either nationally or locally (whichever one pointed there way at the time), an expession of total confidence in Rasmussen, and proclamations that there was nothing the Democrats could do to alter the outcome.

    Now, we have a poster with a new name pop up (probably one of our reliable trolls who doesn’t want to be embarrased as we quote back his own words to him). This poster now dismisses the polls entirely, referring to the election as the only poll which counts.

    Which, of course, is what the rest of us have been saying all along.

    I got my ballot in the mail over the weekend. It’s going out in today’s mail. All of Rossi’s TV advertising from this point on is wasted money.

  9. 15

    rhp6033 spews:

    I saw a particularly bad lie on TV yesterday. It had a bad portrait of Rick Larson against a blackdrop of the Chinese flag, saying that his vote for the stimulus package had outsourced thousands of American jobs to China. This commercial was so bad on so many levels, complete with inflamatory imagry, a complete absence of logic, and a flat-out lie.

    It seems the Republicans have finally figured out that most Americans think out-sourcing jobs isn’t particularly popular among American voters. It’s hurting them that the Democrats have pointed out that Republicans have voted in favor of policies which promote out-sourcing.

    So, the Republicans change their policy, right? Wrong. The Republicans are so closely tied to their corporate financiers that they couldn’t dare dream of changing their policy. Instead, they are simply lying about it, trying to blame outsourcing on the Democrates.

    So, how do you know when a Republican politician is lying? Simple. When their mouth is moving, they are lying.

  10. 16

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    Clearly the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads GPS needs to quadruple its advertising budget in WA.

    If you are a Rossi supporter, please contact the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads GPS today and demand they quadruple their advertisement budget immediately.

    Watching House last night I only recall one commercial break where there were four back to back Rossi ads. That obviously ain’t going to cut it.

  11. 17

    CC "Bud" Baxter spews:

    The Seattle Times and all the local TV stations and newspapers are making a shitload of money foisting these lying negative ads on us. They don’t give a damn if anything is “factual” or “truthful.” You notice that the same organizations that are supposed to be unbiased news outlets, are in fact taking this dirty money to influence our election.

    While all these millions of dollars in campaign ads are in some respects boosting the economy, just like the Wall Street Banksters, they are not producing one single thing of intrinsic value.

    If we could plow all this useless campaign money into our crumbling infrastructure, or any of a thousand other needs, we might not be in the mess we are right now. With millions of people unemployed, unable to find a job, and fifty million people without basic health care coverage, this huge waste of money sick.

    BTW, I hit the mute key whenever I see one of these ads.

  12. 18

    CC "Bud" Baxter spews:

    Even horsesass is taking the dirty money. I just noticed the disgusting Rossi ad about Murray walking on the backs of people.

  13. 19

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Yup, Rasmussen is a critical part of the vast right-wing conspriacy. You probably put confidence in MSNBC and Daily Kos (which was duped for years by Research 2000…the publisher of Daily Kos even admitted it less than 4 months ago here…http://www.dailykos.com/storyo.....earch-2000

    You lefty folks continue to avoid discussing what really counts…voting records, claims made to justify votes and actual results.
    ImamObaMao lead folks to believe he had a plan to create Utopia…less work & more benefits on the backs of the evil rich. Stupid.

    Did you KLOWNS watch this 31-year old clip of Donahue getting skewered by Friedman?
    It’s perfect and describes the foolishness of your socialist progressive movement.

  14. 21

    Zotz sez: GOTV! spews:

    @18: In Goldy’s defense (though he does just fine himself in that regard) the ads appear from Google. Goldy has very little control over ads that appear here.

    Another way to look at it is the undercompensated Goldy gets paid a little bit and they’re wasting their money.

  15. 22

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Michael @ 7–
    Good for you! Sticking to your guns.

    107. Michael spews:
    @105, 106
    Murray was a shoe in for the primary. People weren’t very motivated to vote for her, where they were very motivated to vote for Didier. Murray will pull off a win by 8-12% this time around. Personally, I’m still inclined to think she’ll be closer to 12% than 8%.
    08/20/2010 at 3:55 pm

    If jcricket is right about his conspiracy theory, Rasmussen is now making folks believe Rossi is behind to rally the troops.
    Of course Rasmussen called the Massachusetts Senate Race deadeven and Scott Brown (R) won by 5 points.
    Perhaps jcricket can present some specific examples to support his conspiracy theory??
    Is that too much to ask?
    Otherwise a reasonable person would conclude jcricket is quite paranoid and pulling stuff outta his ass to make excuses for the Democrat plunge.

  16. 23

    messin' with rasmussen spews:

    Am on the proverbial horny horns. Would it be better to give it up and let you have your silly little Pepsodent Patty while we take everything else? Or to let you keep your Pelosi-Reid Reign of Error while we put a dainty tennis shoe up Murray’s ass and punt her into the septic tank where she belongs?

  17. 24

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Take a look at this link which shows 2006 Senate Results vs. Poll Numbers–

    No poll is perfect because there is a margin of error. But all in all, Rasmussen is rated right at the top for accueracy. Puddy posted the polling firm ratings and it’s certainly not Nate Silver’s biased methodology. Silver conveniently started his schtick in mid-2008.
    Also, here is a good explanation for the differences in polling firm results.

  18. 25

    Wayne spews:

    Nate Silver is the gold standard for poll analysts. He was dead accurate in 2008. He also analyzed past poll results and showed Rasmussen has been 4 to 5 points too favorable for the GOP since 2000 in Washington.

  19. 26

    rhp6033 spews:

    # 1: It appears that the Palin-annointed Tea Party Express has gone right off the tracks and into the deep end.

    One of the tenants of the Tea Party was to “Restore our Constitution”. Except it appears that few of them actually have read the document. And most want to “restore it” only after making a few changes to make it more to their liking.

    Take, for example Tea Party (Republican) nominee for Senator in Delaware, Christine O’Donnel. She’s provided some entertainment over the past several weeks, but recently she proved that once again that she’s the gift that keeps on giving.

    She probably should have known to avoid a candidate’s forum hosted by a law school, but she made the foray anyway, and here is the result:

    O’Donnell questions separation of church, state

    Associated Press Writer
    WILMINGTON, Del. —

    Republican Senate nominee Christine O’Donnell of Delaware on Tuesday questioned whether the U.S. Constitution calls for a separation of church and state, appearing to disagree or not know that the First Amendment bars the government from establishing religion.

    The exchange came in a debate before an audience of legal scholars and law students at Widener University Law School, as O’Donnell criticized Democratic nominee Chris Coons’ position that teaching creationism in public school would violate the First Amendment by promoting religious doctrine.

    Coons said private and parochial schools are free to teach creationism but that “religious doctrine doesn’t belong in our public schools.”

    “Where in the Constitution is the separation of church and state?” O’Donnell asked him.

    When Coons responded that the First Amendment bars Congress from making laws respecting the establishment of religion, O’Donnell asked: “You’re telling me that’s in the First Amendment?”

    Her comments, in a debate aired on radio station WDEL, generated a buzz in the audience.

    “You actually audibly heard the crowd gasp,” Widener University political scientist Wesley Leckrone said after the debate, adding that it raised questions about O’Donnell’s grasp of the Constitution….

    Source: O’Donnell questions separation of church, state

  20. 27

    rhp6033 spews:

    Cynical @ 24: Are you really using Rasmussen’s PR statements on it’s website as a source for confirming Rasmussen’s polling accuracy?

    And it’s not just the margin of error. The MOE is part of the calculation which is determined by the size of the sample, as Lee explained in an earlier post a few days ago. It simply measures the likelihood within a given size of sample that random chance will affect the outcome.

    It doesn’t deal with the methodolgy of choosing the sample to be polled; how voters are classified (registered voters vs. likely voters); the questions to be asked; how they are phrased; or how the poll is conducted (internet vs. computerized telephone survey vs. telephone interview (including cell phones???) vs. live interview). All these factors can vary the outcome significantly.

    Some are dictated by cost factors, others are dictated by who is paying for the poll, others are influenced by how the poll is to be used (internal polling vs. polls to be released to the public), or whether it is actually a push-poll (loaded questions intended to shape opinion rather than measure it).

  21. 28

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    25. Wayne spews:

    Nate Silver is the gold standard for poll analysts.

    According to Nate Silver and the far-left.
    He made a good stab but there were some obvious flaws in his underlying assumptions.

    It’s always fun to look back after the fact.
    Polls do fluctuate up to election day but with 2 weeks left, they should be in a narrower narrower range. Shifts of more than the margin of error are highly unlikely. Anything in the margin of error or where the incumbent is less than 50% consistently is in play in my opinion.
    But, we’ll see won’t we.
    And remember, in 2012, there are 33 Senate Seats up of which 23 are Democrats and 10 are Republican. A lot can happen in 2 years but there will be no major Legislation. The die is somewhat cast. R’s cannot do anything until they gain control of the House, Senate & Presidency or have have enough Moderate Dems with them to downsize government.

    BTW, did you hear about the riots in France?
    From Associated Press–

    Coming soon to America.
    With a weak private sector and no significant concessions by Public Employees…this is inevitable. And you cannot Inflate your way out of this as so many benefits and contracts are tied to inflation rates. It’s a systemic meltdown that $13.7 TRILLION and growing of National Debt and $110 TRILLION of Unfunded Liabilities will smother us without drastic action. Yet you KLOWNS living in Utopia don’t understand the only way out is massive economic growth…increase the pie by allowing the American Entreprenuerial spirit to be unleashed. The government can help by getting out of the way and reducing bureaucracy and economic burdens to encourage $$ to be invested in America. Right now, it’s not there.

    Oh and 30 year olds going back to school for new degrees so they can justify not trying to work and use student loans to fund their lifestyle that they will never be able to pay back…what are they going to do if & when they get out of school without a strong private sector??

    Seriously folks..you need to watch this:

  22. 30

    Daddy Love spews:

    2. jcricket

    What I have read is that Ras adjusts its “likely voter” screens as the election nears.

  23. 32

    headless lucy spews:

    re 30: I read the same thing. They don’t want to totally lose their credibility as a polling organization, so toward the end of an election cycle the publish accurate polls instead of polls designed to affect public opinion.

  24. 33

    Blue John spews:

    …the only way out is massive economic growth…increase the pie by allowing the American Entrepreneurial spirit to be unleashed. The government can help by getting out of the way and reducing bureaucracy and economic burdens to encourage $$ to be invested in America.

    I agree with you that massive growth is needed.

    Do you dismiss the concept of punishing companies that send jobs and work overseas?

    Do you think we should get out of NAFTA and GAT?

    How should the government get out of the way?
    What ARE the bureaucracy and economic burdens you feel that should be removed?

  25. 34

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    31. Daddy Love spews:

    Let’s all just accept that Rossi is toast and move on.

    Just like you did in 2004!

  26. 35

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Blue John–
    I never believed in NAFTA or GATT.
    I was disappointed Clinton signed both of those treaties.
    Clinton really sold out American jobs, didn’t he. Bush should have gotten us out too.
    I’m with you on that.

    We shouldn’t “punish” anyone BJ.
    We should adjust our tax and regulation model so we are competitive and reward those who create new jobs here.
    Punishment does not work…especially in this recession with all the debt we have.

  27. 36

    Blue John spews:

    @35. We agree on NAFTA or GATT. Clinton hurt America by signing them, as did the politicians that promoted them.

    We shouldn’t “punish” anyone (a reference to “punishing companies that send jobs and work overseas”)
    We should adjust our tax and regulation model so we are competitive and reward those who create new jobs here.

    Sounds good in theory. Let’s get down to details.

    What ARE the bureaucracy and economic burdens you feel that should be removed?

    For example, the hourly wage in Bangladesh is under 35 cents an hour. The minimum wage in WA is $8.55 per hour.

    If you could craft our economic policy, how would you change our tax and regulation model changed so we are competitive?

  28. 37

    Blue John spews:

    @36 When our conservative are asked to give specifics of how they would like to see their conservative ideas applies, to often, they stop writing.

    It’s so frustrating.

  29. 38

    Steve spews:

    @37 They’re simply not capable of going beyond the talking points. Hell, they even screw those up.

  30. 39

    headless lucy spews:

    re 37: It is interesting that Cynical agrees with everything you say except curbing the people who are causing the problem.