Poll shows Darcy Burner can beat Dave Reichert

Darcy Burner is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Dave Reichert in WA’s 8th Congressional District, and while you may not yet know her name, a recent poll shows that she can win:

In the 8th, 69% of likely voters said that they disapproved of the current Republican-controlled Congress.

64% disapproved of the Bush administration. And only 34% would vote to re-elect Reichert. (To give you a sense: a normal number for a first-term incumbent would be in the low fifties.)

Furthermore, while likely voters in the 8th would choose Reichert over a generic Democratic candidate 45% to 21%, when presented with just a little information about me, they choose me at 41% to Reichert’s 31%.

Read (and recommend) Darcy’s diary on Daily Kos for more information.

Comments

  1. 1

    Libertarian spews:

    So a Democrat can likely beat a Republican in a congressional election in Western Washington. True, but not very newsworthy.

  2. 2

    Rabbitwho? spews:

    Hmm, so you post a “poll” by the potential candidate as a fact ? Come on, you can do better. I received a few of those calls myself and the questions were atrocious…it was so obvious what they were looking for and what they wanted to show.

  3. 3

    Swift Boat Vets For Universal Healthcare spews:

    IMHO, Darcy Burner has got the kind of moxie that Dave Ross just lacked. WA-8 will eventually be represented by a tech-savvy, professional women (Darcy Burner), as it has before (Jennifer Dunn). Reichart has helped himself by breaking with the loonier parts of the Delay Agenda, but he’s a marked man. He won’t become a Dunn-like fixture.

  4. 4

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Goldy—
    The fact that you would not UPFRONT in your thread post clearly state that the POLL referred to by Darcy Burner was done by DARCY BURNER speaks volumes about you. Sadly, you’ve become nothing more than a political puppet….BY YOUR ACTIONS!!
    Clean up your act dude. Be UPFRONT Goldy. It will get you further. This type of horsesass horseshit merely weakens you. If you aren’t UPFRONT about obvious stuff like this, WHAT ELSE ARE YOU HIDING AND SPINNING????????????
    Goldy, I expect your typical response of:
    1) Readers could find this out by reading your reference OR…
    2) Well of course GOLDY is biased toward LEFTIST PINHEADS.
    Fine….but clearly you are not UPFRONT…not the STANDUP guy you dream of being recognized as.
    Frankly Goldy, with this kind of ERROR OF OMISSION, you are WORSE than what you claim to ABHOR!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Hell, I’ll bet Goldy rolls over on his idea of taking WSDOT to Court re: the AWV being unsafe too.
    Great ideas Goldy====No follow-thru.
    Interesting Threads===Omit key information and expect readers to find it buried in attachments.
    Did you get trained by the Seattle P-I????

  5. 5

    Richard Pope spews:

    I would doubt that Darcy Burner will ever be the Democrat nominee in the 8th district. She may be the only person announced at this point (over 13 months before the election!). But if Reichert is vulnerable and the voters in the 8th district are really pissed at the Republican Congress, I would look for the Democrats to field one of their first string candidates, instead of going to their second or third string teams.

    Laura Ruderman would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate in the 8th district. She was elected to three terms in the state house from the 45th legislative district — and against strong well-financed Republicans — a GOP leaning district that had never previously re-elected a Democrat. She is an extremely energetic campaigner, and had a very solid track record in the legislature.

    In 1998, she initially wanted to run for Congress (her precinct was in the 1st district, before the redistricting after the 2000 census) against Rick White. She raised over $80,000 for this race, but withdrew when Jay Inslee announced, and switched to the state legislature instead.

    The GOP is afraid of Laura Ruderman. Several months ago, I received a letter from several GOP activists, who were concerned that Jane Hague wouldn’t be a strong candidate for re-election to the King County Council. They sent this letter to all the PCO’s and GOP activists in the new 6th council district. They were afraid that Laura Ruderman would file for this seat and beat Jane Hague. They apparently were interested in promoting someone to challenge Hague in the primary, but evidently didn’t end up filing this person. As it was, no one filed against Hague and she will get re-elected without opposition.

    I see Darcy Burner as the Democrats’ new replacement for Heidi Behrens-Benedict in the 8th district. Heidi ran decent campaigns against Jennifer Dunn as the Democrat nominee (and only Democrat filing) in 1998, 2000, and 2002. When Dunn didn’t run again in 2004, Behrens-Benedict stayed in the race (she had never really quit running against Dunn after first filing in 1998). But the Democrats then recruited Alex Alben to run, since he had a lot of money to spend. Then the Democrats recruited Dave Ross, since he had a lot of name recognition and polled a lot better than either Behrens-Benedict or Alben.

    Look for the same thing to happen in 2006. Ruderman has a decent job right now, and will probably want to keep it until sometime next spring. In the meantime, Darcy Burner will carry the torch of the Democrat left-wing, and become the 8th district’s equivalent of Cindy Sheehan. Come April or so, Ruderman will announce for the position, and work 28 hours a day for a seat in Congress that she has been interested in for such a long period of time.

    Ruderman should win the Democrat primary rather easily, and should definitely give Reichert a run for his money in November 2006.

  6. 6

    Richard Pope spews:

    I predict that Laura Ruderman will be the Democrat nominee for Congress in the 8th district in 2006. Once my previous posting makes it past Goldy’s spam filter, you will see my analysis of why this may very well be. :)

  7. 7

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Richard–@6
    I believe you are right on this one.
    The R’s and Reichert can only hope it is Darcy Burner.

  8. 8

    John K spews:

    Laura Ruderman is not running, Richard. I’ve talked to her. She’s in my district organization.

  9. 10

    s-choir spews:

    re 4: Mr. Cynical: Do you see how dangerous Goldy has become since attending the Paul Wellstone Activist Camp? Oh……… I can remember as clear as yesterday your derision of Goldy’s khacki camp shorts and the mosquito netting surrounding his bunk. You laughed at Goldy as he attended seminars on identifying the Orion and Sirius of the Democratic night skies.

    But who got the last laugh,Huh? Wasn’t P.J. O’Rourke, was it?

  10. 11

    Dean spews:

    Laura is not running, I met with her last week, and in fact still does not live in the 8th District.

  11. 12

    Richard Pope spews:

    John K @ 8

    That only shows that Darcy Burner’s polling results aren’t exactly objective. I would expect disapproval of Bush and the GOP Congress in the 8th district to be right around 50% or a little more, and desire to re-elect Reichert to be a little under 50%. Darcy Burner’s poll numbers are a little too extreme to be believable in the 8th district, to say the least. Presumably Laura Ruderman and the Democrats have access to realistic polling data showing just that in the 8th district, and they haven’t decided to put up a formidable candidate yet against Reichert. Now if a credible poll shows a little more slippage in the GOP numbers in the 8th district, look for the Democrats to field someone from their A-team.

  12. 13

    Richard Pope spews:

    Dean @ 11

    Guess what …YOU’RE RIGHT!

    Somehow I thought that Laura Ruderman was in the 8th district, since her name was mentioned a lot in February 2004 when Jennifer Dunn didn’t seek re-election. Ruderman finally announced on March 8, 2004 that she wouldn’t run for the 8th district seat:

    http://archives.seattletimes.n.....n+ruderman

    Funny that none of the newspaper stories and announcements mentioned that Ruderman lived a couple of miles OUTSIDE the 8th district. Ruderman must have considered running for several weeks, before opting out. Otherwise, she could have simply told the media that she didn’t live in the 8th district and wasn’t running from the get-go.

    Actually, under the U.S. Constitution, you only have to live in the state, and not in the district, to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. Of course, it is much less likely that the voters will elect someone living elsewhere in the state outside of the district.

  13. 14

    Jimmynap spews:

    I wish we had a viable candidate to oust Doc Hastings. Sandy Matheson was that candidate but could not get steam behind the campaign. Perhaps with the Tom Delay issue and Hastings problems with the Ethics Committee that could change.

  14. 15

    Curtis Love spews:

    Richard Pope @ 12

    That “shows” nothing of the kind. it shows your own presumption only. Without access to how the sample was selected, the sample size, margin of error, the wording and rotation of questions, the likelihood of a poll’s accuracy cannot possibly be assessed.

  15. 16

    Robert spews:

    It will be amusing how many of these “moderate” Republicans distant themselves from the Corrupt Tom Delay. I bet it’s a standing rule for any (R) Rep in a swing district to NOT get yourself picture with Tom Delay, Bill Frist, or even the Worst President Ever.

  16. 17

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    CurtisZero (Love = Zero in tennis)@15—
    You are certainly correct that Richard doesn’t have the details to assess the accuracy. But when Poll results are quoted WITHOUT the person who did the poll disclosing all this AND the simple fact that it was apparently an in-house poll well….C’mon Curtis, you can do better than that.
    I seem to recall perhaps you and definitely your ilk constantly questioning the source of polls….and Goldy disclosing the source of polls he considered BIASED.
    Curtis is a funny little clown!

  17. 18

    GBS spews:

    Republicans = Worst Americans Ever, to go along with their failed Coward in Chief. Just like Ms Chickenhawk.

  18. 20

    spews:

    My Pet Goat could beat Dave Reichert.

    He ought to be findin’ some new coattails…Dino-Sore and chimpy’s are getting a little thin.

  19. 21

    Aexia spews:

    Goldy, are you sure it wasn’t a push poll designed to cast doubt?

    It’s a standard message testing poll.

    Push polling isn’t used for polling at all; it’s persuasion calling disguised as poll.

    The noteable thing is Reichert’s re-elect numbers. Voters are looking for an alternative. *If* Darcy (or whoever the Dem nominee is) can get her message out, they’ll likely choose her over Reichert. Judging from the way the horserace numbers changed, they obviously discovered a couple very effective themes for use in the campaign. (Which is the *real* purpose of this type of poll.)

    Even if you tack on 5-10% for party bias, that 34% re-elect is very grim looking.

  20. 22

    righton spews:

    goldy, why are you against Reichart,…is it only partisan…that he’s gop?

    He’s a bit liberal for me, unsure why you don’t gleefully settle for him

  21. 23

    GBS spews:

    Ms Chickenhawk @ 19

    I’ll keep your legal advice in mind should I ever find myself in the position to explain away all the carnage of certain traitorous and cowardice pukes to a judge.

  22. 24

    Mark spews:

    Aexia @ 21

    I know what a push “poll” is. My point is that you can do hybrid polling that generates (sometimes biased) numbers at the start, but ends by raising doubt.

    Unless we know exactly who did the poll, what the audience was and what the precise questions were, there is no way to know if a poll is valid. And even then, polls can be way off.

  23. 25

    Swift Boat Vets For Universal Healthcare spews:

    Arguing over the poll seems to be secondary. If Reichart is anywhere near 34%, that’s really bad news. Then again, when folks actually have to CHOOSE the other guy(or gal) over the Sheriff, that’s when it matters. WA-8 is a district that the Dems will win if they take back the House.

  24. 26

    righton spews:

    Yipes, went to darcy’s website. we don’t need another frumpy democrat serving from Washington….

    can’t you find a seahawk gal to run for office?

  25. 27

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Burner actually has an interesting story on how she got to this point…it will be interesting to see how it stands up to intense scrutiny. I’m sure Reichert’s folks will be going thru every single one of her claims and her Financial Disclosure Statements….as well they should. It will be interesting to see how her website is “modified” in the months to come.
    Despite my CYNICAL nature, I tend to take folks at their word until they get caught in a significant lie. It would be foolish for any candidate in this day and age to misrepresent themselves. Assuming her past actions are clearly represented and they line-up with her current positions, she could be an ok candidate for the Dems. Lots of families on the Eastside dontcha know.

  26. 28

    Jerry Springer Jr. spews:

    Mr. Cynical in a thoughtful moment . . . and sans the stale pinhead routine (@27). What’s the catch? Is this baiting akin to Richard Nixon’s comment in the late 70s that Ted Kennedy could have the presidency any time he wanted it?

  27. 29

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Inside the Beltway

    Senator Kennedy in Daring Levee Repair Mission
    Praised by locals for his bravery
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    September 25, 2005

    (Reuters Photo) — Senator Edward Kennedy (D- Mass.) undergoing
    rigorous training with the Louisiana National Guard for the dangerous
    New Orleans levee-plugging mission.

    New Orleans, Louisiana, September 25, 2005 (Reuters) — Shocked by the widespread suffering of those displaced from their homes by the flooding in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina and more recently Hurricane Rita, Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) has offered to plug one of the holes in the Lake Pontchartrain levee with his own ample girth.

    “The Bush Administration has failed to stem the tide of this appalling cataclysm,” said Kennedy. “I’ve had experience with aquatic mishaps. This experience will bolster me in this hour of desperation as I attempt to plug one of the leaks myself.” Kennedy has arranged to have the Louisiana National Guard transport him by a Chinook helicopter and lower him into the easternmost breach in the badly damaged levee which is allowing waters to flood the Lower 9th Ward and St. Bernard Parish.

    The hope is that the senator’s doughy frame will be pliable enough to conform to the hole’s dimensions and halt, or at least slow the flow of water from the lake into the city. The Chinook is normally capable of lifting three huge sandbags per trip, however, due to the his weight the aircraft will be limited to hauling Senator Kennedy as a single load.

    President Bush praised Senator Kennedy’s actions. “I think it’s mighty big of him to offer so much for the citizens of New Orleans during their time of need,” said Bush. “There aren’t many who could fill such a large role in this disaster.”

    If you clowns could only see the picture of Kennedy being airlifted by a helicopter!

  28. 31

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    rujax–
    I will wear your vulgarity like a badge of honor!
    You make Kennedy out to be some kind of hero….
    I’m simply acknowledging that the murderer is good for something!
    I mean 100,000 calories/day + 10-12 martini’s have helped Teddy prepare for this HUGE mission for our Country.
    You can launch 24/7 on Bush and others…..and I’M CRASS?????

  29. 32

    Aexia spews:

    I know what a push “poll” is. My point is that you can do hybrid polling that generates (sometimes biased) numbers at the start, but ends by raising doubt.

    If you knew what push polling was, you wouldn’t have brought it up.

    Unless we know exactly who did the poll, what the audience was and what the precise questions were, there is no way to know if a poll is valid. And even then, polls can be way off.

    We just did a poll in the district

    Was that not clear enough for you? It’s pretty obvious who did the poll, who was the audience and what the questions were.

    Yes, the poll is intended to sow doubt and to boost fundraising. But it’s also true. Is it really that huge a stretch to find that a first-term Republican incumbent in a Democratic leaning district is vulnerable? And screwing around with poll results is a quick way to find oneself frozen out of the DCCC and PACs.

  30. 33

    Richard Pope spews:

    Mr. Cynical @ 29

    Do you have the link to the story about Ted Kennedy helping out in New Orleans?

  31. 34

    Mark spews:

    Aexia @ 32

    You are WAAAYYY out of your depth here. You clearly know little about market research and strategic analysis and planning.

    We do not have the script for the poll, so we do not know the nuanced phrasing. We also don’t know other aspects of the survey, such as caller’s tone, time of day, sampling method, etc., etc. And it is highly unlikely that they called every single household in the district AND had every single voter in a given household respond.

    For all we know, they asked 50 people on some campaign staffer’s AOL buddy list and said, “you wouldn’t vote for Reichert, would you?”

  32. 35

    Puddybud spews:

    Come on rugrat, that was very funny. I busted a left rectus abdominus. If you can’t give comedy kudos to Cynical, you have more than a screw loose!!! Teddy the Swimmer Kennedy needs some swimming practice!

  33. 37

    klake@ spews:

    Inside the Beltway

    Senator Kennedy in Daring Levee Repair Mission
    Praised by locals for his bravery
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    September 25, 2005
    If you clowns could only see the picture of Kennedy being airlifted by a helicopter!

    Comment by Mr. Cynical— 9/27/05 @ 7:28 pm

    Mr Cynical you have the best vision of Mr. Kennedy in his finial moment in this world. Mybe God will now let him enter Heaven for his last and final moment for humandity. But maybe not! He left a young lady to drown in a large body of water and didn’t even attempt to help her. Well money can’t buy everything.

  34. 38

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    klake–
    Unfortunately Kennedy’s money can apparently buy DENIAL from the LEFTIST PINHEADS! Kennedy can obviously mesmorize his LEFTY brethren into rage and outrage deflecting from his personal conduct. The end justifies the means.
    Perhaps Kennedy’s constant anger and outrage is the only way he can get thru the day….cuz his money & power cannot change what he did.

  35. 39

    Mark The Redneck spews:

    Reichert is proving how stupid it is to be a “moderate”. I’m sure none of the hardcore HAs would ever even consider voting for him, and with his kooky stance on gun control, and his mindless support of the kooky (and misnamed) Violence Against Women Act, he sure doesn’t do much to inspire his “base”.

    So in the polarized world of today’s politics, there’s nothing in the middle. “One Term Reichert” will prove me right.

  36. 41

    chuck spews:

    Many people said Reichert would only ever get one term. Did he actually say anything during his camapaing besides “I caught the Green River Killer”? If he did, I didn’t hear it. He used the exact same concept the only time I saw him on national TV, “when I was chasing the Green River Killer…blah, blah, blah…”

  37. 42

    windie spews:

    poor reichert. He’d probably do quite well if he party hopped.

    I hate feeling like I need to use my votes to restore the 2 party system.

  38. 45

    righton spews:

    Windie; how in the world living in King County could you ever get a 2 party system?

    vote down Mc Dermot; maybe let a gop get say >10% of the vote :)
    vote a repub onto the city council
    tone down the nazi slurs; some of us might run but for the lefty personal attacks (really)

  39. 46

    righton spews:

    Chuck; reichart also chased down that punk during WTO; maybe that’s why you all oppose him; unlike the Seattle dims, this guy enforced some laws..

  40. 47

    Curtis Love spews:

    Mr. Cynical @ 17 AND 27 and 31

    “…when Poll results are quoted WITHOUT the person who did the poll disclosing all this AND the simple fact that it was apparently an in-house poll well….C’mon Curtis, you can do better than that…”
    Well, that’s strange, considering that you said “…I tend to take folks at their word until they get caught in a significant lie.” Name the sign.ificant lie that eithewr I or Darcy burner has been “caught in.”

    “I seem to recall perhaps you and definitely your ilk constantly questioning the source of polls….and Goldy disclosing the source of polls he considered BIASED.”
    I wouldn’t know about that. You certainly don’t know shit about me, though. As I said, nether you nor I nor anyone else can either vouch for or credibly refute a poll about which we know nothing.

    CurtisZero (Love = Zero tennis)@15—
    Curtis is a funny little clown!

    Ooh, you’re like be funny’s cousin–not funny. Ad hominem attack is the last refuge of the person with no factual resources. Bite me, shit for brains. If you can’t win on the facts, I’ll bury you.

  41. 48

    Curtis Love spews:

    Sorry, left out Cynical @ 31
    When was Ted kenedy convicted of murder? Somehow I missed your support for that accusation.

  42. 49

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    A woman underling got into his car.
    Kennedy drove it into the river.
    She died.
    He saved his own fatass.
    Was it murder????
    Millions think so.

  43. 50

    spews:

    48
    OJ was never convicted of murder either. What is your point? No wonder people roll their eyes when they listen to donks talk about moral character in politicians.