From a KING 5-commissioned poll:
SurveyUSA polled 520 likely voters in King County; the poll has a margin of error of 4.4%:
Dan Satterberg (R): 43%
Bill Sherman (D): 49%
Undecided: 8%
Among males, Satterberg leads Sherman 51% to 40%. But among females, Sherman leads Satterberg 58% to 35%. Oh…and females make up 52% of voters.
Sherman leads in all age, generation and race groups except for the 65+ crowd who prefer Satterberg.
The crosstabs are available here.
Update: I want to preempt the inevitable right wing spin about the fact that the poll results are slightly “within the margin of error.”
Statistically, the meaning of these results is this: if the election were held today, Sherman would win with a 93% probability and Satterberg would win with a 7% probability.
You know if the approval rating poll for the democtat congres has the same error rate they could be as low as 6%. OUCHHHH.
“…the democtat congres….” Can you provide a link? I haven’t heard of this particular ‘grrooop’.
#1 — You take the cake. You are without a doubt an idiot.
If this is true, we will soon be able to ask candy-dates to buy the beer on Tuesday nights. Here is one to ya Goldy!
2&3
Oh oh…. another hot air, grammatically correct moonbat. You know the ones, they harp on spelling because their ideas suck. You guys are a dime a dozen.
#5 — I’m sure Satterberg takes solace in the fact that you are in his corner……. With all your great ideas….
6
Yeah we know you are a rocket scientist with your “socialized healthcare is the answer” spout in the last thread.
Rufus @ 1,
“You know if the approval rating poll for the democtat congres has the same error rate they could be as low as 6%.”
You misunderstand the congressional approval polls. Across the board, whenever a poll asks separately about the Democrats in Congress versus the Republicans in Congress, we learn that the Republicans in Congress are dragging down the poll numbers.
Here is a recent example…the ABC-Washington Post provides a table of congressional approval broken down by party:
Every other recent poll shows the same pattern.
Moonbat Jane @ 1, your post is a walking definition of stupid. You had, presumably, just read Goldie’s post about how “margin of error” really works; then you make a post using the kind of math Goldie had just pointed out only stupid right-wing moonbats would use. Stick around; you have your uses.
To be more precise, the 93% vs 7% probabilities of binary outcomes (assume no tie) is only accurate if the poll sampling was perfectly random from the true population of the people that will cast their votes (without anyone in said population, that casts a vote, changing their mind between now and then).
No Poll is that accurate do to sampling limitations, I’m sure.
Anyway you slice this, it looks like Satterberg is in trouble.
@1 Would you like to bet (putting the wager money in escrow, of course, so we don’t have an MTR problem) the next Congress will be 94% Republican? I’ll give you even odds, dog.
@3 “You are without a doubt an idiot.”
Barely intelligent enough to form the mens rea required to convict of felony vote fraud.
Republican Defense Strategy
That reminds me … a lot of defense lawyers are rehearsing this argument:
“Your honor, my client can’t be guilty because he (she) is too stupid to form a criminal intent.”
@5 “You know the ones, they harp on spelling because their ideas suck.”
No, we harp on spelling (and grammar) because illiteracy is evidence of lack of education, which in turn causes ignorance, which is a big 3-syllable word that means you don’t know what you’re talking about.
@7 How’s that PRIVATE health care system working out for ya? Tired of paying 25% vigorish to the insurance companies yet?
@8 What Dufus doesn’t grasp is that a lot of DEMOCRATS disapprove of the job the DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS is doing because they want the DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS to get TOUGHER with Bush, Cheney, and the rest of the GOP criminal gang.
For example, I disapprove of the Democrats in Congress because I think those spineless cowards should IMPEACH Bush and Cheney. If repeatedly violating the Constitution, federal laws, and international treaties isn’t enough to impeach someone, then nothing is … hey mentally challenged wingnuts, this is a bigger deal than lying in a private lawsuit about a blowjob.
@9 re @1: “Stick around; you have your uses.”
Dogs are excellent dartboards.
Satterberg no doubt feels encouraged to be only 4 points behind in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 percent. He’s going to ride Maleng’s coattails all he can, while tooting the “nonpartisan” horn, and — get this — flouting his endorsements from prominent DEMOCRATS.
(Wonder why he isn’t bragging about Republican endorsements? Oh, that’s right, the GOP brand name has been recalled due to toxic contents.)
Satterberg = another Republican pretending to be a Democrat (there’s a lot of ’em running around these days)
could be a close election – who will really vote, older voters
We need a tough as nails prosecutor, who will lead by example, just like Norm Maleng did.
Nice poll.
Hey TDOG, whocaresaboutblueorred, Piper et al …
Where are you? You disappeared as soon as this poll hit.
Polishing up your resumes, perhaps, instead of blogging for your “nonpolitical” boss from your King County computers?
Change is in the wind…
Outlaw-
“you disappeared as soon as this poll hit”
Really? we were never on this string, pinhead- and if you look at the other strings, we left when the rest of you mindless sheep blessed us by shutting the F up for a few days. And where were we? We were holding killers, rapists and other abusers accountable. How’d you impact the world over the past few days, junior?
And when you find someone who has been on this blog a) from a King County computer and/or b) during office hours, let me or any of us know and we’ll gladly drop the dime. Otherwise, try not to allege things you can’t prove- like you and your sheep brethren wanted Dan to do to Lori Sotello. Last, but not least, brethren- try to say something original, true, and maybe even with a point here. Hell- even one of the three coming from you would be impressive.
14
Ignorance causes Republicans.
Satterberg is in trouble is a mild way of putting it.
I have more money to give to Bill Sherman. I’d better go give it.
TDOG-
Why don’t you drop dime on your buddy Whocaresaboutblueorred. He has freely admitted posting from his ‘nonpartisan’ office computer on County time?
Are you going to the King County Republican fundraiser next Tuesday? Satterberg will be mugging for the camera along with GOP posterchild Jane Hauge. It only costs $100 per person.
Quite ‘nonpartisan’ of Satterberg. I am sure that he and Hauge are raising money for Mothers Against Drunk Driving and not the mighty GOP.
Yeah right. Another smooth move by Satterberg.
Check out the invite at Postman’s blog:
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsou.....crats.html