A new poll was released today in the Washington Senate race by Elway. The most interesting part of the poll was the head-to-head match-up between Sen. Patty Murray and perennial candidate and real estate salesperson Dino Rossi. Dino is, of course, best know as the loser to Christine Gregoire in the 2004 gubernatorial election and post-election challenge of the contest. He is second-best known for losing handily to Gov. Gregoire in 2008.
Elway polled 405 registered voters, of which 352 went for either Murray or Rossi. The respondents gave Murray 47% to Rossi’s 40%. If we normalize this poll (i.e. look only at the 352 who had an opinion) Murray is at 54% to Rossi’s 46%. As usual, I’ll approximate the probable outcome of a hypothetical election held today using Monte Carlo simulations. A million simulated elections of 405 voters at the percentages observed gives Murray 853,011 wins to Rossi’s 138,593 wins. The results suggest that if the election was held now, Murray would win with a probability of 86% and Rossi would wins with a probability of 14%. Here is the distribution of results from the simulated elections:
Goldy has more analysis of this poll and what it means for the November election.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)
I’m guessing since that idiot Klynical has disappeared, things must be trending Democrat.
The fool usually posts Rasmussen.
Here is today’s
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Yipes..I think Patty is ok as long as she can distance herself from the President. Hopefully he will stay far, far away. I’m afraid Patty has a 100% pro-Obama voting record that will like hurt her some once Dino-baby starts holding her accountable for her actions. Should be an interest race. We have lots of Government Union employees in Washington plus their families & friends. Hopefully that will be enough.
I say Murray by 3 points.
The Rasmussen poll wasn’t a Washington State poll (and is pretty much bullshit anyway). Patty doesn’t have to distance herself from the President one iota. She doesn’t have to distance herself from Democratic ideals, either. She can run on her record and as a progressive that leads the fight for veterans and an energy policy that preserves the planet and creates jobs.
Patty on Energy:
My Priorities
Investing in the development of clean renewable energy.
Ensuring America is less dependent on foreign sources of energy.
Encouraging innovation to meet our nation’s energy needs.
Supporting conservation and energy efficiency to reduce energy demands.
Maintaining low-cost power in the Pacific Northwest.
Protecting consumers from unfair energy market manipulation.
Investing in education to enable our country to continue to cultivate the scientists, researchers, and workers who will ensure we are a global leader in clean energy development.
When Klynical finally surfaces, no doubt he will point to this recent poll too-
Monday, June 14, 2010
sarge–
I understand your point, these are not Washington Polls. We can only hope Washington State is drastically different than pretty much the other 49 states. I do think Murray will win, but it’s likely to be 3 points or less either way. The R’s are going to put a ton of $$ in this state and force Patty to spend her’s to get re-elected, not allowing her to give the $$ to the many needy Democrat candidates. Interesting to discuss. I wouldn’t take this for granted though.
@ Geoff: Not taking it for granted. Just saying that “distancing herself” for Obama is not only unnecessary, but a bad idea.
The only way she loses is if she overthinks the strategy and tries to distance herself from Obama and/or her core ideals in order to appear moderate.
“perennial candidate”
Darryl, I think this should be rephrased as, “gadfly candidate”.
I think we’d all agree that Richard Pope is a gadfly, because despite his perennial candidacies he never gets elected to anything and nobody (besides him) takes him seriously.
Well, Rossi doesn’t get elected to anything either, and in statewide races his vote-getting ability is about the same as Pope’s, the main difference between Rossi spends $20 million to get the same results Pope achieves by spending $200, which if anything makes Pope a more viable candidate than Rossi (or at least one who makes more efficient use of campaign resources).
And, Pope has a better program for running the country than Rossi does.
Plus, Pope never made his living by working for a convicted felon who robbed widows and orphans of their life savings.
Overall, Richard Pope deservers to be taken more seriously than Rossi, and has an even or better chance than Rossi of winning an election. Yet, we consider Pope a gadfly, and so do the media.
So, isn’t it obvious that Dino Rossi is a gadfly candidate?
sarge–
Agreed. She has no choice but to run on her core ideals because her voting record is lengthy & consistent with those ideals.
The questions in my mind are how voters will respond to her votes on the ineffective Spending Bill and subsequent increase in National Debt and the Health Care Bill.
Not sure how Washington voters feel about those 2 issues, but I guess we will find out because it’s pretty obvious Rossi will take the Scott Brown route and not get into the ugly, irrelevant stuff Goldy seems to like. He will focus on her voting record specifics and votes he disagrees with..like the Health Bill and Spending Bills.
sarge–
In the last poll I saw re: Washingtonians view on the Health Care Bill, I found this.
Obviously, if I were Rossi, I would beat this to death…although it’s encouraging we are not as high as other State’s in terms of repeal.
Still, it along with deficit spending/bailouts and a few other things will be huge issues folks will likely focus on.
To win, Rossi has to focus on these plus play on people’s insecurity about immigration and National Security. If we have an attack on our soil, Murray will be in trouble, don’t you think?
sarge–
I found one last thing re: immigration that could be of consern for Patty–
Rossi will try hard to stick to the core issues. To beat him, we need to get him off on some rabbit (no offense to Roger) trails. Irrelevant stuff to deflect from the core issues.
One other thing I picked up on an e-mail I received. Governor Gregoire is even more poisonous to Murray than President Obama.
Frankly, I hope they both stay away unless it is crystal clear they will be helpful.
Recent polls make it clear the Governor is poison…the President is more murky.
When in doubt, stay away is probably the best strategy.
Geoff @3 (emphasis added):
I certainly hope you’re right about what the NRSC and their allies might do. I’d love to see them waste a pile of bucks to maybe keep Patty’s margin out of double-figures. Maybe.
Every dollar they (futilely) spend in Washington is a dollar they won’t have for Senate races in which they have a chance of success.
@7 and 8: Links please. What pollster? If it’s Ras, it’s bullshit.
@11 Did a Google search. It’s Ras.
They are not dumping a penny more than they have to, and are likely hoping his name recog is enough to force her to spend money.
Rossi will help keep the teabaggers home.