A new Survey USA poll in the Washington gubernatorial race has been released by KING 5. The poll of 540 Washington state likely voters (4.3% MOE) found that former Rep. Jay Inlsee leads Washington AG Rob McKenna by 48% to 42%. The polling dates were not given but were probably the last few days of September.
This makes the sixth consecutive poll in which Inslee has come out ahead of McKenna.
A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections using only data from the new poll found Inslee winning 846,579 times and McKenna winning 145,776 times. In other words, if the electiion was held today, we would expect Inslee to win with an 85.3% probability. By standard statistical inference, we would call that “within the margin of error.”
Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:
The previous poll in this race was just a few days ago. It showed Inslee ahead in the race 46% to 45% from a poll taken in the 26th of September. Given how close the polls are to each other, we can pool them and jointly analyze the results of both polls. The pooled polls gives a pool of 1,040 “voters” of which 941 voted for one or the other candidate. Inslee leads in the weighted average by 47% to McKenna’s 43.5%.
Now after a million simulated elections Inslee wins 800,838 times, and McKenna wins 193,071 times. Our hypothetical election held now would go to Inslee with an 80.6% probability:
Here is what the polling has done in this race:
Clearly, the race turned around sometime in July from a small lead for McKenna to a small lead for Inslee.
Sucks to be Bob. Sucks to be McKenna.
I finally saw the “old men in a diner” ad for McKenna. I was wondering how that’s playing on this side of the Cascades, in the non-urban areas. I’ve taken to calling it McKenna’s “Grumpy Old Men” ad.
@ 1
Steve, McKenna’s run an awful campaign. He’s got my number and won’t leave me alone. His wife is a bigger nag than Michelle Obama – half the shit I get comes with her name on it.
I will admit that HA types are – slowly – convincing me in this campaign. That ‘get a job’ thing didn’t sit well with me.
The reason I asked (different thread today) about Inslee’s book is I think I might have to read it.
rhp @ 2
Isn’t that a ridiculous ad? A half dozen old men who completely agree, with energy and enthusiasm, about anything just doesn’t much happen. I think Bob above may be right–McKenna has not run a good campaign. I kind of thought this was his race to lose, primarily because of his name recognition and King County roots. I will say, however, that of the many politicians I have met in my life, I think that Jay Inslee is one of the finest humans among them. Sincere, approachable, interested in whomever he might be speaking with. I was afraid that would not come off in ads. I surely don’t like his bulldozer ad. It made me cringe and wonder about who was advising him.
I hated McKenna’s grumpy old men ad. But in the past week, ads for both campaigns have changed dramatically and I wonder how that is going to affect the next round of polls we see. Inslee’s ads don’t seem particularly effective to me and I can see how McKenna’s might appeal to people who are hoping for something different. Plus it seems to me that McKenna (or a PAC that supports him) must have boatloads of money as their ends run continuously.
Sad day for Washington State. I worked for the Jay Inslee campaign years ago and that guy is slime mold. I read his environmental book and while some of it was inspiring… the take home message is scary for voters. He omits any fact or idea that might make his argument look weaker, and by doing so shows he is out of touch with reality.
I have no doubt that Inslee plans to line the pockets of big business investors with billions of taxpayer money for phoney environmental investments.
Mckenna wants to put that money into education. To that idea Seattle voters give a collective BOOO! Evidently it’s more popular to make Inslee rich than reinvest in public schools.