HorsesAss.Org

Well, apparently, state Rep. Fred Jarrett is no longer my favorite Republican elected official.

Marking the end of an era in which the Republican Party once dominated Eastside politics, Jarrett will officially switch parties before the start of the 2008 session, while declaring his candidacy as a Democrat for the seat being vacated by Democratic state Senator Brian Weinstein.

Oh, did I mention Weinstein is stepping down after one term in office? It’s been a busy day.

For months rumors have swirled that Weinstein might not seek a second term, or that Jarrett might run for the seat regardless, but any hope of a GOP pick-up is erased by Jarrett’s long-overdue move across the aisle. Jarrett, the last remaining Eastside Republican legislator, has faced growing pressure in recent races despite his moderate voting record and well-earned popularity, but as a Democrat, he’s a virtual shoo-in. Meanwhile, Republicans face a daunting challenge in holding taking back the 41st LD House seat without the universally well-liked Jarrett on the ticket.

More coming….

No doubt Idaho’s GOP establishment has been shitting bricks over US Sen. Larry “Wide Stance” Craig’s refusal to step down and allow the state party to appoint an heir apparent, but nobody really believes the Republicans risk losing this seat in this famously red state, do they? Well, according to a new survey conducted by Democratic pollster Lake Research Partners, um… maybe.

1. Idahoans are in the mood for change. Fifty-nine percent of voters believe that things in the United States are pretty seriously off on the wrong track. Only a quarter (26%) believe things are going in the right direction.

2. The Republican brand is in decline and a generic Democrat defeats a generic Republican. Forty-two percent of voters would vote for the Democrat in a hypothetical Senate race, compared to 36% who would support the Republican (21% are undecided). The Democrat leads by six points despite a 12-point Republican advantage in partisanship (40% Republican to 28% Democrat, 31% independent). Notably, voters criticize the job performance of President George Bush and Senator Larry Craig. Sixty-six percent of voters say Bush is doing either a just fair or poor job as President and only 33% say he is doing an excellent or good job. Craig is similarly critiqued: 56% just fair or poor, 37% excellent or good.

3. Jim Risch is not as strong as conventional wisdom dictates and Democrat Larry LaRocco is rated as popular. Asked to rate their feelings toward some people and organizations using a scale from 0-100, voters rate Risch a “56,” compared to LaRocco who scores a “57.” Despite his years as State Senate President Pro Tempore, and five years as Lt. Governor (including six months as Governor), the supposed Republican frontrunner has no advantage.

4. The data follows on the heels of two consecutive strong elections for Democrats in Idaho where voters have trended away from Republicans. In the 2006 State Legislative contests, Democrats managed to flip 6 State House seats from the Republican column. Additionally, Boise’s Democratic Mayor, Dave Bieter, won reelection this past November with 64% of the vote.

Sure, the poll was conducted on behalf of Democratic challenger Larry LaRocco and nobody is suggesting that he is even close to holding the upper hand, but Republicans would have to be nuts to write this seat off as an easy hold in such a volatile political climate. LaRocco is an impressive candidate — a likable economic populist in the mold of Montana’s Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester — and if he runs an equally impressive (and well financed) campaign, the GOP will be forced to respond in kind. This poses a particular dilemma for the NRSC, which trails its Democratic counterpart by a nearly three to one margin in cash on hand, but has many more seats at risk.

Republicans have 22 US Senate seats to defend in 2008, compared to only 12 for the Democrats, and of the 10 races uniformly considered competitive by Beltway pundits, only one (Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu) is currently held by a Democrat. If the NRSC finds itself spending money fending of LaRocco in Idaho, that’s money it won’t have available to spend defending, say, a very vulnerable Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon, who has a field of credible Democrats vying to take him on next November. And if the NRSC ignores LaRocco, writing off Idaho as a gimme, well, they need only look to the House Republicans’ disastrous strategy in 2006 for a vivid illustration of the possible consequences.

Faced with tight resources and an exploding number of potentially competitive races in the final weeks of the campaign, the NRCC resorted to political triage, ceding first-tier races to the Democrats while assuming the third-tier “Republican favored” races would mostly fall their way. This left the NRCC free to focus most of its resources on the second tier, where it pulled out narrow victories in eight of nine high-profile races, including WA-08. Problem was, Republicans ended up losing not only all the first tier races, but all the third-tier races as well. The NRCC gambled and lost.

It may seem odd to suggest that the road to a 60-seat Democratic majority lies through traditionally red states like Idaho and Alaska of all places, but that’s the beauty of the 50-state strategy that worked so well in 2006. Washington voters may not have a US Senate race on their ballot next November, but there are two key contests on our borders, and both our media and our money will play a big role in determining the winners. Stay tuned.

UPDATE:
Well, that’s what I get for not reading Joan. The poll was actually conducted by Myers Research on behalf of Idaho Dem House member Nicole LeFavour, who was considering getting into the race. Joan’s got more details over on Daily Kos.

Scanning dozens of headlines as we do here daily so that you don’t have to, I’m struck by how vacant the once-distinguished calling of headline-writing has become. I scan my news with an RSS reader, which displays articles by header only in a long scrolling queue, all in the same typeface, with no content-based prioritization, graphic or otherwise. On this kind of laundry list, a great headline will really jump out. With an occasional exception, though, the art seems to have died — somewhat curiously, since the strictures of font size, column width and number of lines no longer constrain creativity.

Anyway, in today’s sampling we have zingers like Lewis County farmers moving forward after floods, Better bus service coming to South Lake Union, and Compromise reached on South Lake Union plan, none of which make you want to even click, let alone go thumbing through inky pages of Christmas ads. It’s not like the stories themselves demand a dull headline. That second one in particular seems pregnant with possibilities, although as Will noted we may have already OD’d on SLUT. Still, one yearns for even a hint of the wit present in “Headless Body in Topless Bar,” or “Harvard Beats Yale, 29-29,” or the one above the lonelyhearts columnist’s advisory that size doesn’t really matter: “Sum of Man Is Greater than his Parts.”

Some earnest stabs at pithiness sprinkle today’s roundup: Ho-ho-no: McDermott votes against Christmas gets a B (grading on the curve here), and A green light for rules on emission output (greenhouse gases, get it?) could’ve been a lot better. But here’s the one that really missed: To the tune of ‘Love Train,’ streetcar goes on a roll. Even Will would acknowledge an opportunity lost.

Anyway, you’ve probably gathered by now that pickings are indeed slim in the meaningful news this a.m. Most of today’s stories are simply revisitations of last week this same time. The P-I has a big hand-waver with the revelation that some roundball fans here actually could buy the Sonics (aren’t they gone yet?). And it’s true, Steve Ballmer loves basketball, to the point he at one time at least kept a framed “So glad to have met you” letter from Isiah Thomas hanging in his office. Of course, if you follow the orange rubber globe you also know that Ballmer might not be eager to walk in Thomas’ sneakers these days. So we leave you with this sodden thought: Seattle business groups apparently are pushing the city to lower taxes, arguing that Seattle is “less economically competitive.” Hey wait a minute. My taxes buy you a new purple trolley and this is the thanks I get? I’m moving to Portland!

Postscript: How did I miss this one?

“I don’t care what you call it, as long as you ride it.”

Those were the Mayor’s words just before the VIPs and press guys boarded the orange streetcar. Nobody referenced the streetcar’s nickname. What a fucking relief. That joke is getting really old, guys. Real. Old.

I rode the second train out of Westlake. The sucker was packed, but everyone was excited. As folks were mashed in, I mentioned to the crowd, “it’s starting to get really unpleasant… You know, like on a bus.” Everyone laughed. People laughed because everyone hates riding the bus, at least on some level.

Folks were waving at the train, and from the train. You don’t see this much with buses. People only wave from buses if they’re going to summer camp or coming home from prison. I did the whole route, and on the way back I got off at Denny. The number 17 bus was coming up, and I said aloud to the crowd, “is anyone waiting for the bus?” Everyone laughed, because no one will wait for a bus when they can take a streetcar. No one.

There was a sad-looking lady holding a sign at Westlake that said “Watch Out for Injured Cyclists.” I watched out, but all I saw were smiling, pleasant people waving at the streetcar. My heart goes out to cyclist who commute through the city, but the next time I see a fixie-riding, no-helmet-wearing douchebag hipster blow through a red light at 20 miles and hour, that goodwill goes away. If you’re a cyclist that can’t figure out how to ride your bicycle over railroad tracks, then maybe riding a bicycle isn’t the best sport for you.

Which reminds me. I hear that a bicycle advocacy group is doing, or has done, some “protest rides” in South Lake Union, protesting the fact that the rails the streetcar runs on could pose a hazard to cyclists. Right. On a side note, me and some friends are going down to City Hall to protest the Treaty of Versailles.

Regardless of the internet whining, people who ride the streetcar tend to like it. It’s a short line, but it’s effectiveness as a transportation option only increases as it is expanded. Same thing can be said about the Link Light Rail. I will make a point to use it, and if I have the chance, I’d live along the route.

I’ve got a magnet on my fridge that tells me I’ve got a free ride on the Seattle Monorail, which opens the Green Line this Sunday. Except that it doesn’t, because it never got built. The monorail fell apart, crushed by it’s own hubris and a bullshit financing plan. Maybe this streetcar can be expanded to serve West Seattle, northwest Seattle, or other parts of town that were promised transit but never got it. Let’s expand the streetcar throughout the “Center City”, and deliver transit investment to the people who are most willing to ride it.

Yeah sure, Dan had it up on Slog first, but it was too good to resist….

One massive taxpayer giveaway down, one to go: As Paul noted rather exuberantly yesterday, Seattleites will get their first chance to pay for a ride on the SLUT this morning. A slow ride, too. And expensive: The $1.50 ticket for 1.3 miles (much of which is in Metro’s Ride Free Zone) is on top of the $52 million (and counting) Seattle taxpayers are already shelling out, or about $100 per Seattle resident for a pork barrel project designed solely to benefit Paul Allen’s South Lake Union development projects. But never fear: the P-I has some shameless boosterism to put your mind at ease. (Did you know that “retailers…expect business to increase when the streetcars start running”!! Well, compared to the last year of construction chaos, yes.)

And like any good parasite, Allen wants more. As Real Change puts it,

Vulcan (Paul Allen’s development company) is seeking approval from the City to build higher in South Lake Union. Legislation before the Council would provide that allowance, if they pay $5 million dollars for affordable housing for moderate wage workers.

This afternoon, the Urban Development and Planning Committee votes on chair Peter Steinbrueck’s proposal to require, as part of that package, $7.7 million (as opposed to the current $5 million) from Vulcan for affordable housing. The committee will also vote on a one-year study and possible subsequent launching of a rental housing inspection program, to do something about the city’s persistent slumlord problem.

Also in city council news, as of Monday, harassing a homeless person is now a hate crime. No word on whether the city will arrest itself (or Mayor Nickels) the next time an encampment is torn down and private possessions seized. And as if to underscore our region’s contempt for the homeless, an unnamed “transient” was found dead in Myrtle Edwards Park Tuesday, and the Bothell Seattle Times gave it an unbylined article of exactly 58 words.

Barack Obama was back in town last night, playing, er, orating a rock star-like gig at the Showbox (tickets: $100). Unlike most other states, Obama has a sizable fundraising advantage over his rivals in Washington state, which is why his surging campaign made time for the brief Seattle stop. 23 days ’til the Iowa caucuses.

One man campaigns for a job, another loses his: Univ. of Washington Athletic Director Todd Turner was fired, er, “resigned” yesterday because only three and a half years after inheriting a complete train wreck of a department, the football team still sucks. Art Thiel has a good column in today’s P-I on Turner’s undoing: the former A.D.’s naïve belief that things other than the football team winning games should also matter at a university.

Idiot of the day: The Marysville father who gave his two-month old daughter OxyContin. She nearly OD’d. The guy’s in jail now on that and other child abuse charges.

Elsewhere on the planet, Al-Qaeda — you remember Al-Qaeda, don’t you? — set off two suicide car bombs that killed dozens in Algeria. So much, again, for the “we’ll lure them all to Iraq and they won’t be a threat anywhere else” theory.

But not all is grim in the world. Former (U.S.-backed) Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori was sentenced to six years in prison Tuesday in the first of several trials he faces on corruption and human rights charges. Pity that more world leaders who shred laws and abuse their citizens’ trust don’t end up doing time. No names.

And there’s this: Some rock stars, unlike Barack Obama, really are rock stars. Led Zeppelin played their first full concert in 27 years in London last night, with deceased original drummer John Bonham capably replaced by his son, Jason. Word is they can still kick it.

Mom of the cyclist killed by the dump truck turning on Fuhrman in September and the companion cyclist are suing the construction company and driver. This go-around is a little unusual in that enforcement is still dithering: “Seattle police are still investigating and have not yet forwarded the case to King County prosecutors.” Why on God’s green earth not? It’s hard to imagine three months after the fact what they’re going to turn up new. It’s also hard to imagine someone getting killed in a vehicle-on-vehicle accident and cause not being assessed. Inaction trivializes the incident and also makes the city appear at least partially culpable. Hopefully there’ll be some telling discovery before the thing gets settled.

A few links to some issues related to criminal justice…

– At 7PM this evening, our friends at Washblog are having an online discussion about Washington State’s 3-strikes law which will include family members of those affected by the law.

– This past weekend was the 2007 International Drug Policy Reform Conference in New Orleans. One of my favorite bloggers, Pete Guither, blogged throughout the conference, including the session led by 45th District State Representative Roger Goodman, who is one of the most knowledgeable elected officials in the nation on drug policy.

– Yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled that sentencing guidelines that established a 100:1 imbalance between crack and powder cocaine penalties can be overruled by judges at their discretion. The Sentencing Law and Policy blog has some background here and here.

– Finally, Radley Balko has a tremendous post reflecting on the time he’s spent in Mississippi working on the Cory Maye case. Maye was a young man with no criminal record and a young daughter in rural Mississippi whose house was accidentally raided by cops who weren’t aware that his apartment was a separate unit from the one they were looking for (where an actual drug dealer was living). Believing he was being robbed (the raid was conducted at night), Maye fired on the intruder, killing a very well-respected officer by the name of Ron Jones. He wound up on death row before Balko discovered the case and led an effort to have his death sentence repealed (although Maye is still in jail serving a life sentence). The full compendium of posts on Cory Maye are here.

Join us tonight for a fun-filled evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

Tonight’s theme song is inspired by the CIA agent who claims that torturing prisoners saves lives. So join us for a sing-along with Winlar and GT:

Not in Seattle? Check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

From the Kitsap Sun article:

Former Seahawks kicker Norm Johnson helped pull a woman from her overturned car Monday morning, on his way to taking his son to school.

While driving along Olympic View Road around 9 a.m. Johnson saw a 2001 Pontiac Grand Am that had hit black ice and landed on its top in a large ditch.

Johnson, a real estate agent for Reid Realty, stopped when he saw the car at a 45-degree angle in a ditch filled with water. The woman inside was screaming, and another woman at the scene was calling 911.

The driver of the car had freed herself from the driver’s seat and crawled to the back of the car to get away from the water. She was scared and screaming and couldn’t get herself out, Johnson said.

Johnson used a large rock to break the glass and helped the woman from the car.

“She climbed out, I gave her a hug and she was just really scared,” he said. “She likely was in shock.”

Norm Johnson is fourth on the All-Time Points list, but he’ll be first in the hearts of his countrymen (and women) from now on. (Josh Brown ain’t got nothin’ on “Mr. Automatic”)

Number Nine slings the rock into the window,smashing the glass… and… and… It’s good!

Some people simply have no sense of humor.

You said you wanted extra mayo, right?

Good thing for the incumbents on the Seattle City Council that my daughter is only ten, because if she was old enough to have a vote, they all surely just lost it. In unanimously voting to clear cut the Fun Forest at the end of 2009, the council may have freed up some valuable real estate for their gradual bourgeoisification of the Seattle Center, but in doing so, they’ve pissed off thousands of kids of all ages.

I’m sorry, but some days you just have to look past the negativity of the morning headlines to find hope, joy and inspiration in life’s little things. So while others might focus on WaMu laying off 3,150 people (it IS Christmas time, after all), or Port Townsend merchants facing a ferryless future, to say nothing of shivering thousands of homeless people here and all those flood victims from Madison Valley to Chehalis digging out ruined belongings and moldifying homes during this, the season to be jolly. Fa la la…

Happy war on holiday.