Forgot I was working early this morning, so short and sweet. Don’t delete your text messages if you’re a government official.
Wednesday Open Thread
I am still wrapping my head around Mayor Harrell’s budget. It seems certain that the high water mark of the defund movement in Seattle will be in the past as even taking parking enforcement out of the hands of the police is at least proposed to go away.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is meeting this evening for some discussion of politics over drinks. Join us if you wish.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Monday Open Thread
Good morning. Are you excited about Darryl doing Senate poll watching? I am. But I do want to note that the polls are a snapshot in time in a series of events you can shape. You, yes you, can help influence who is in the Senate next year. You can make calls. You can text bank. You can donate. You can (and hopefully will) vote. You can knock on doors.
And you can get vaccinated for goodness sake. Or get boosted with the bivalent booster if you’re eligible.
Monday Open Thread
Good morning. Are you excited about Darryl doing Senate poll watching? I am. But I do want to note that the polls are a snapshot in time in a series of events you can shape. You, yes you, can help influence who is in the Senate next year. You can make calls. You can text bank. You can donate. You can (and hopefully will) vote. You can knock on doors.
And you can get vaccinated for goodness sake. Or get boosted with the bivalent booster if you’re eligible.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Stephen: A fix for the chronic underrepresentation of Hispanics and Latinos on television
VICE News: Authors of banned books speak out
WaPo: How the NFL blocks Black coaches
LegalEagle: Don’t record your crimes!
NowThis: Black Women’s Equal Pay Day 2022—How to close the wealth gap
The Dotard Трамп:
- The Late Show: This is what The Dotard said to prompt the one-finger salute
- Ari Melber: Трамп indictment next? Why the blockbuster Jan. 6 report may change everything
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп’s Life Isn’t Going Well ♬
- Seth Meyers: NY AG’s bombshell lawsuit accuses Трамп of staggering fraud and seeks $250M
- Chris Hayes: Трамп admits to willful retention of documents in Hannity interview
- Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп lashes out after being charged with a “staggering” amount of fraud
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп could now lose everything including his freedom
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп is “Goin’ down” ♬:
- Chris Hayes: Tracking the brazen pattern of Трамп fraud
- Stephen: DeSantis misled migrants to score political points and Rapping back at Utah Republican
- J-L Cauvin: The Dotard claims he NEVER asked for a Special Master
- Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell surrenders phone to FBI in Hardee’s drive-thru
- Joy Reid: New report—Трамп’s White House lawyers warned him against taking documents to Mar-a-Lago
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Declassifying, Just by Thinking of It ♬
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп’s chances of indictment may have “skyrocketed”
- Seth Meyers; DeSantis’ cruel Martha’s Vineyard stunt backfires & Трамп humiliates J.D. Vance
- Jon Stewart and Friends: The path to Republican power lies in dickishness”, Jon on DeSantis’ latest stunt
- Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп claims he declassified documents using special powers!
- Trevor: Ron DeSantis’s migrant stunt spurs probe and Трамп is mad he stole his idea
- Ari Melber: Master vs. MAGA—Team Трамп rebuked in court over stolen docs
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Special Master, Трамп Disaster ♬
- New York Times: The Real Threat to American Democracy
- Chris Hayes: The non-lawyer who is giving Трамп legal advice on the Mar-a-Lago case
- The Late Show: The perfect dating app for conservatives:
- Alex Wagner: Special Master to Трамп, “Put up or shut up”
- Joy Reid: Трамп took advantage of the fact that we’re not tough on white collar crimes
- Mother Jones: The decades-long saga of how the GOP went crazy
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп is facing a judge who’s not playing games
- Joy Reid: Трамп may have indicated he intentionally sent docs to Mar-a-Lago
- Mark Fiore: Cruelty Travel
- Trevor: Трамп can declassify documents by “Thinking about it”
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Wisconsin could be more like Florida (and that ain’t good) ♬
- Chris Hayes: What Republicans threaten to do if they retake The House in November
- Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп returns to Mar-a-Lago after “unwarranted” & “illegal raid”
- Desi Lydic: Leaked in-flight safety video from DeSantis’s migrant plane
- WaPo: N.Y. attorney general sues Трамп for business fraud
- NowThis: The latest on GOP Governors’ political stunts with migrants
- Tommy Campbell: Donald Трамп’s bigly fraud lawsuit & Marjorie Taylor Greene trashes electric planes
- Seth Meyers: Трамп unravels on FAUX News, claims he can declassify documents with his mind
- Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: America’s busiest troll:
- Chris Hayes: Appeals Court rejects part of Трамп judge’s ruling, allows DOJ to resume document review
- Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп is mad at DeSantis and a new video of Republicans breaching election security
- Lauren Mayer: ♫ Pardon Me Ron (Is That the Plane to Martha’s Vineyard?) ♬
- Stephen: Things just got worse for the former President
- J-L Cauvin: The Трамп family reacts to being sued by the New York AG
- Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп says bad stuff’s gonna happen ♬
- Ayman Mohyeldin: Political theater, “candidate quality” signal trouble for Republicans come November
- Stephen: Трамп confuses Hannity with wild Mar-a-Lago excuses
The New Yorker: One woman’s mission to feed Harlem
Robert Reich: The truth behind “self-made” billionaires
Liberal Redneck: Stacey Abrams, heartbeats, and Georgia
Alicia Menendez: President Biden seeks to restore trust in American Democracy
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Election 2022: Control of the Senate
Election analyses are back! Today’s topic: Who will control the U.S. Senate after the mid-term elections?
We can answer this question by aggregating polling data that has been publicly released over the past year or so. The FAQ covers the methods but, in short, I am using polling data along with Monte Carlo simulation methods to assess probabilistic winners for each state and an overall probability of who will control the Senate.
Using voter preferences found in the past month of polls (whenever possible), 100,000 elections were simulated in each state. The result: Democrats had a Senate majority 82,684 times and there were 15,449 50-50 ties (these go to the Democrats, as VP Kamala Harris breaks Senate ties). Republicans controlled the Senate only 1867 times.
The results: If the election was held now, Democrats would have a 98.1% probability of controlling the Senate.
I’ll highlight just a few races.
Nevada is looking more and more like a Republican pick-up. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, has been losing to Republican Adam Laxalt in the last 4 polls. These suggest she would only have a 17.3% probability of winning right now. This is a recent trend, as Cortez Masto has lead in most of the earlier polling this year.
Ohio: In this Republican-held open seat, Democrat Tim Ryan is running against Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan has the polling advantage, but Vance has lead in the last three of six polls taken this month. Control of the Senate may turn on whether Ryan gets his mojo back.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians know a carpetbagger when they see one, and they look determined to send Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) back to New Jersey. By leading in every poll this year, John Fetterman (D) has amassed a convincing lead in the race.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) just might lose his seat to Mandela Barnes (D). Barnes has lead in most polls this year. The race, based only on the last month of polling, is a tie. This race may be the one that control of the Senate hinges on.
Back to the topic of control of the Senate, here is the distribution of seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats.* There is about a 40% chance of Democrats having at least 52 seats, the magic number that gives some immunity to Sinema—Manchin Dyspepsia.
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 98.1%, Republicans control the Senate 1.9%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.4 ( 1.0)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.6 ( 1.0)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (50, 53)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 50)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 34
- Independent seats w/no election: two
- Republican seats w/no election: 29
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 19
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: two
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
---|---|---|---|---|
Safe Democrat | 43 | |||
Strong Democrat | 6 | 49 | ||
Leans Democrat | 1 | 1 | 50 | |
Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
Ties | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 49 |
Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
Strong Republican | 8 | 46 | ||
Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
# | Sample | Percent | Percent | Dem | Rep | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | @ | polls | size | Dem | Rep | % wins | % wins |
AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
AZ | 8 | 5210 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
CO | 2 | 1448 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
CT | 1 | 1853 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
FL | 7 | 3775 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
GA | 10 | 8481 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 91.1 | 8.9 | |
HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
IL | 1 | 476 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
IN | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 7.0 | 93.0 | |
KS | 2 | 1133 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
MO | 2 | 1473 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
NV | 4 | 3069 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.3 | 82.7 | |
NH | 3 | 2025 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
NY | 1 | 858 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
NC | 5 | 3899 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 19.8 | 80.2 | |
ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
OH | 6 | 4276 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 60.8 | 39.2 | |
OK | 2 | 818 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
OK | 1 | 459 | 32.9 | 67.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
OR | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
PA | 7 | 5181 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
SC | 1 | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.6 | 95.4 | |
VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.4 | 5.6 | |
WA | 3 | 1929 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.8 | 1.2 | |
WI | 5 | 3815 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 51.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Note: This IS NOT an open thread. The comment section for this post is for discussion of things like polls, elections, control of the Senate, etc. Any poo-flinging is welcome at a nearby Open Thread. Thank you!
Friday Open Thread
Good morning. No smoke! I forgot to find anything to write about until now. Sorry?
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Friday Open Thread
Good morning. No smoke! I forgot to find anything to write about until now. Sorry?
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Friday Open Thread
Good morning. No smoke! I forgot to find anything to write about until now. Sorry?
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Friday Open Thread
Good morning. No smoke! I forgot to find anything to write about until now. Sorry?
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Friday Open Thread
Good morning. No smoke! I forgot to find anything to write about until now. Sorry?
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Wednesday 9-21 Open Thread
The slow decline of Boeing in Western Washington has been gutting. Sometimes it’s surprising that there’s any meat left on the bone. And yet. Boeing is outsourcing corporate finance jobs to India. About 150 starting in October. This is nationwide, but surely it will take jobs from the Seattle area. You feel worse for the people doing factory work than these people. But still, it stinks.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Tonight! The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is getting together for an evening of politics, drinks and just hanging out. Stop by and join us if you wish.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Monday Morning Open Thread
You can drive on the West Seattle Bridge. But also, if the Water Taxi, or working from home, or alternate routes, or whatever worked for you, the first rush hour might not be the best time to take it. Does anyone know if the C line will be faster? It couldn’t be slower, he types nervously.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
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