Please join us on Tuesday as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of post-election celebration. Please note the meeting time and venue change.
This week we will meet at the Duchess Tavern (2827 NE 55th St, Seattle WA 98105) starting at 7pm out on the patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
– Congratulations to Congresswoman elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez! I am sure that there will be a lot of times when I’m frustrated with her, but man what a gap between her and the other possibility.
– King County’s budget passed committee last week. There are so many exceptions, I don’t know how much the body cameras for deputies will make a difference, but it’s probably better than not.
– Go wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Jimmy Kimmel: Dana Carvey’s Dotard Трамп, Barack Obama & Joe Biden Impressions
Drunk History: Unbelievable moments in US political history
Electoral Dysfunction:
Roy Wood, Jr.: CP Time—The history of Black governors
Трамп and His Imbeciles:
Ronny Chieng teaches you about Asian veterans
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I am writing this on Tuesday night. It’s still too early to tell who is going to control Congress. But! It’s safe to say that Patty Murray is going to win reelection pretty easily.
And far be it from me to give advice to Republicans, who I hope lose every election, but I don’t understand why they keep running on hating Seattle in statewide races. Like what was the last time it was successful, Slade Gorton in the 1990’s? They won Secretary of State and AG, when they aren’t tempted to go full fuck Seattle, more recently.
But part of the reason that we’ve only had Democrats as Governor and Senator for decades is that Seattle people aren’t going to vote for fuck Seattle and it isn’t salient to the rest of the state. Like find a message that doesn’t demonize a large group of people who you want to represent.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.
My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.
Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.
What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.
There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.
Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.
Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.
Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 44 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 46 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
| Leans Republican | 1 | 1 | 51 | |
| Strong Republican | 9 | 50 | ||
| Safe Republican | 41 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 16 | 11772 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| AR | 1& | 451 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 4 | 3028 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1 | 773 | 66.2 | 33.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 7 | 4408 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 12247 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.3 | 53.7 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 441 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| IN | 1 | 615 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 1.4 | 98.6 | |
| IA | 1 | 753 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| KS | 1 | 868 | 37.6 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1& | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 5 | 4295 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 9 | 6281 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| NH | 9 | 10733 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 84.4 | 15.6 | |
| NY | 5 | 4024 | 60.1 | 39.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 7 | 6807 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 8 | 7425 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 2024 | 41.6 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 1984 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 2 | 2171 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 14 | 11479 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 37.0 | 63.0 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| SD | 1& | 1275 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| UT | 2 | 1242 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| VT | 1& | 987 | 66.4 | 33.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 3 | 2183 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 76.1 | 23.9 | |
| WI | 8 | 6410 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Vote you jerks. Get your ballot postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow (Tuesday). Please vote for the Democrat in all the races against Republicans. And there are good resources statewide if you’re still unsure. You can also probably still volunteer with your favorite candidate. Tell your friends to vote. It’s crunch time. Let’s do this.
And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
John Oliver: Bail reform
Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle
SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West
Electile Dysfunction:
LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed
Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past
Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬
The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:
WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment
Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack
Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
If you haven’t voted yet, you should plan to do it this weekend. Dropboxes are convenient and you can get them in the mail this weekend, you can forget about them. I mentioned it during the primary, but the new location for the Downtown Seattle dropbox is closer to Lumen Field. But wherever you go to drop off your ballot, get it finished.
And hey, wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Bivalent and flu are keeping people safe.
I’m no lawyer, but I like the Attorney General’s lawsuit to block Albertsons’ dividend payments ahead of their merger with Kroger. Wait until the deal is complete. Or just don’t be a monopoly?
Again, I want to stress that I have no legal training whatsoever. But the AG’s office under Ferguson has had a good track record.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Election season is upon us. Next Tuesday is election day, so today is a great day to fill out your ballot, drop it off in a mailbox or ballot drop box, and then swing by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We’ll be discussing politics of all types over drinks.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Good morning to the Weyerhaeuser workers whose strike just ended. It looks like a mixed bag in terms of gains, but hopefully the fixed costs instead of percentages will be meaningfully better health care.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And you better get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Stephen: Sec. Pete Buttigieg on why fixing America’s infrastructure is fun and exciting
LeagleEagle: Ghosts are legally real
Electile Dysfunction:
Jon Stewart: Why are states undercutting their own workers?
Now This: How young people are leading the way on gun reform
The Lying, Cheating and Scheming Cult of The Dotard Трамп:
Desi Lydic: Halloween—Why do we celebrate this?
Jon Stewart and friends: When states compete to win jobs, residents pay the price
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Geez. I am a bit wary of ascribing motives to people ahead of actually knowing. And random events do happen, so grain of salt here.
But it seems like the most likely explanation of someone attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband in their home is related to her politics. Awful awful stuff. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Get the bivalent, it’s great.
I would prefer actual facts to random speculation. But with Joe Kent and his campaign refusing to give any actual information about his previous employer, bad speculation is going to replace it. So, he probably wasn’t in the CIA. He maybe was given a bullshit make work job, or was just lying. I wish we had better information.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!