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I hope you will all excuse my delay in posting some post-election observations, as I spent the day sitting shiva for our democracy. I will for the moment ignore the national elections, except to once again respectfully ask my fellow Americans… are you out of your fucking minds?!!!

Apparently so.

Anyway…

On to the results from the less-insane Washington, where it turns out my predictions (made without the benefit of polling data) were pretty damn close. “Damn” being the operative word.

In fact, I correctly picked the winning candidate in every race. I think.

The governor’s race is still up in the air, but the absentee ballots look somewhat encouraging for Christine Gregoire. There are slightly more absentee ballots left to count from pro-Rossi counties than from pro-Gregoire King County, but Gregoire’s margin of victory in King is quite substantial, so they should tend to even out. We’ll know a bit more tomorrow afternoon.

Perhaps the best news is that the Democrats will likely control both houses of the Legislature. It could be a week or more before we get the final count, but it looks like the D’s picked up 3 seats in both houses.

The other statewide races went pretty much as expected. Patty Murray trounced political midget George Nethercutt, and the apparently unlikable Deborah Senn lost to the clearly unqualified Rob McKenna for attorney general. If the D’s aren’t careful McKenna will be Governor or a Senator someday.

All the statewide incumbents won.

As to the initiatives and referenda, of course, the big news was the overwhelming failure of I-892. And it was overwhelming… a greater than 60-40 defeat.

Now Eyman has been running on about all the money spent opposing the initiative, but for the most part, the No campaign’s ads were honest… they simply explained to voters that I-892 would put slot machines in our neighborhoods. And voters clearly don’t want slot machines in their neighborhoods.

The gambling industry had hoped that the Eyman brand would masquerade I-892 as a tax cut initiative. It didn’t work.

I’ll talk more about the other initiatives later, but the only real surprise was the margin of defeat for I-884. And the only reason I find it surprising, is that I would have thought its sponsors would have done a better job on focus groups and polling before financing this desperately need measure with a wildly unpopular penny hike in the sales tax.

More comments tomorrow, including some new tidbits on loan shark infested Great Canadian Gaming Corporation.

Dear Fellow Americans,

Are you out of your fucking minds?!!!!

Sincerely,

Goldy

I worked so hard over the past year to defeat Tim Eyman and his dangerous initiatives, and I should be enjoying a victory celebration. I-892 is going down to a huge and embarrassing defeat. And I-864 didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

I’m not claiming the credit for myself, but I know I made an important contribution. (And more of a contribution than Tim knows.)

But it’s hard for me to gloat right now, when I’m watching my nation go down in flames.

I never accepted the legitimacy of W’s first administration and I will never accept the legitimacy of his second. At this moment, I cannot imagine being convinced that this was a free and fair election. Quite simply, I fear for our democracy.

I also fear for the future of the Democratic Party, nationally, and in Washington State.

The fact that Eyman has so clearly been revealed for the paper tiger that he is, is little consolation at this moment. But it’s all I have.

It has been suggested that I report WA results instead of focusing on the national election, like I have most of the day. I should point out that WA results have only just become available, and you can check them out by linking to:

http://vote.wa.gov/general/

I should note that the state is not at this time reporting results from King County, so don’t get too excited.

The networks are too chicken to call it, but I’ve looked at the county-by-county returns, checked with my family back home, and I’m calling Pennsylvania for Kerry!

You heard it here first.

The last of the exit polls before the real thing starts coming in, courtesy of dailyKOS:

    Kerry Bush
 PA 53    46
 FL 51    49
 NC 48    52
 OH 51    49
 MO 46    54
 AK 47    53
 MI 51    47
 NM 50    49
 LA 43    56
 CO 48    51
 AZ 45    55
 MN 54    44
 WI 52    47
 IA 49    49 

Crossing my fingers….

4pm (eastern) exit polls, courtesy of dailyKOS:

                 NV   CO   NC   PA   OH   FL   MI   NM   WI
 Kerry         48   46   49   54   50   50   51   50   51
 Bush          50   53   51   45   49   49   47   48   46

Again, take them with a grain of salt.

Early exit poll numbers from MyDD via dailyKOS:

         AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush     55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

I can’t vouch for their accuracy, or meaning. But I’d rather have meaningless, inaccurate data in Kerry’s favor than in Bush’s. History shows that early numbers tend to favor Republicans, but clearly, Kerry is not going to win PA by 20 points, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. And a couple aspirin.

One other interesting thing to note is that Zogby now shows Virginia a dead heat!

All this bodes well.

Still waiting for some definitive exit polling leaks, but Norm Ornstein just reported on the Al Franken Show that “we have never seen turnout like this before.” He refused to reveal more than that, but past experience would say that is good news for Kerry.

One good sign that Republicans expect to lose this election is that they’re already casting aspersions on its legitimacy. I was particularly amused by the Drudge Report rumor that voting machines in Philadelphia already had thousands of votes on them before the polls opened.

Now, I grew up in Philadelphia, and worked as a polling official during several elections while in college. And the Democratic Machine there had a well deserved reputation for electoral tricks.

But rigging the machines was not one of them.

Each polling place has a Judge of Elections, a Majority Inspector, and a Minority Inspector… and we inspected the machines together before the polls opened, recorded a preliminary count together after the polls closed, and officially sealed the machines… together. Furthermore, the number of votes recorded on the machine must match the number of voters we recorded on our rolls. There’s no way to jigger those numbers.

So what about those thousands of votes already recorded on the machine? Well there are two odometers on the machine… one records the total number of votes cast in this election, and the other records the total number of votes cast during the life of the machine (in truth, I believe it is reset after major overhauls.) We recorded both numbers before and after.

So when poll watchers claim there are votes already recorded on these machines, it’s the lifetime odometer they are looking at. If these poll watchers (I’m assuming, paranoid Republican Minority Inspectors) had bothered to go to the training sessions (the city actually pays polling officials to go to a half-day session) they would have understood how these machines worked.

A tidbit from the USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll seems to suggest the vote breaking towards Kerry in Florida:

In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%.

And Ralph Nader?

The independent candidate who helped swing the 2000 election to Bush isn’t much of a factor this time. Among 1,573 likely voters, he was backed by 9.

But…

Let’s see, 51% for Kerry plus 43% for Bush plus about 0.5% for Nader… that comes to 94.5%. Soooo… what? Gallup’s telling us that 5.5% of people who have already voted are still undecided?

But then, this is Florida, so anything could happen.

Earlier today I flattered myself by posting my endorsements in the most important and competitive races in Washington state. Now I’m going to tell you how to vote on the various initiatives and referenda.

Really. You have to vote exactly as I tell you. Or else.

I-892: No to Slot Machines!

It should be clear to even the most casual reader that Tim Eyman and I don’t see eye-to-eye on the issues. And that I think he is a lying, thieving, blowhard.

So I want to make it absolutely clear that my opposition to I-892 would be just as strong even if Tim had nothing to with it. I-892 would put 18,225 slot machines into over 2000 neighborhood bars, restaurants and bowling alleys scattered through nearly every community in the state, dramatically expanding access to the most addictive form of gambling ever devised.

This is a greedy, deceptive, money grab, pure and simple. I-892 would turn Washington into a poor-man’s Nevada, and in return, homeowners get maybe $29 a month on a $100,000 home, tops.

Of course, another really good reason to vote No is just to stick it to Tim.

Prediction: Eyman has more relevance with the media than he does with voters… No 62%, Yes 38%.

I-872: No on the Louisiana primary

“Waaahhhh! I want my blanket primary!”

That’s pretty much what voters and editorialists have been crying ever since the Supreme Court threw out Washington’s odd “blanket” or “open” primary.

Well get over it!

Besides, contrary to popular belief, I-872 does NOT restore the blanket primary… instead it replaces it with the equally odd but decidedly more stupid “Louisiana-style” top-two primary. Yes, I-872 gives you more choice in the primary, but it does so by giving you less choice in the general election… and that, after all, is when the majority of people actually vote.

Prediction: baby wants its blankie… Yes 71%, No 29%.

I-884: Yes to the Education Trust Fund

To be honest, I have a lot of trouble with this initiative. Our children desperately need the extra billion dollars a year it raises for education. But a 1 cent increase in the sales tax hurts those families who can afford it least. Washington already has the most regressive tax structure in the nation, and I-884 will make it worse.

I’m following Ron Sims’ lead on this. He supports I-884 as a stopgap measure to deal with our growing education funding crisis now. And like Ron, I promise to work as hard as I can towards real tax reform that will provide real relief to middle- and low-income families, while assuring an adequate tax base for the services the vast majority of citizens demand.

In real dollars, we are now spending over $500 less per student per year compared to 1993. Anybody who has a child in the public schools has seen the impact, and knows that something has to be done now. So please vote Yes on I-884, and then join me in working for a fair and adequate tax system.

Prediction: I’ll let my optimism get the better of me here… Yes 52%, No 48%.

R-55: No to Charter Schools

I agree 100% with message of R-55’s TV ads… we need to make our schools better. That’s why I’m voting Yes on I-884.

But R-55 gets a big fat NO, because what R-55’s TV ads never mention, is that it authorizes charter schools.

It’s not that I have anything against charter schools… in theory. But in practice, the vast right wing conspiracy is just using charter schools (and vouchers) as a tool to defund public education. In WA, charter schools will be used to bust the teachers unions. Yeah… that’s exactly the way to improve education… pay teachers less.

Charter schools are being driven by a belief in the “free market” that has taken on a religious fervor. Thus it’s not surprising that a large number of charter schools in other states include a religious curriculum.

We need to spend our public education dollars in our public schools. Vote No.

Prediction: once again, WA voters will reject charter schools… No 54%, Yes 46%.

I-297: Yes to cleaning up nuclear waste

Truth is, I don’t know all that much about this initiative, but I’ve been assured by people who know what they’re talking about that I want to vote Yes on this. So take my word on their word.

Not enough? Read the Ballot Summary:

This measure would establish additional requirements for regulating mixed waste (radioactive and nonradioactive hazardous substances) sites, such as the Hanford Nuclear Reservation. The measure would set standards for cleanup and granting permits, would prohibit waste disposal in unlined soil trenches, and require cleanup of tank leaks. Permits would not allow adding more wastes to facilities until existing contamination was cleaned up. Additional public participation would be provided and enforcement through citizen lawsuits would be authorized.

Can’t argue with that.

Prediction: voters can’t argue with that… Yes 55%, No 45%.

As if writing a blog weren’t intellectually masturbatory enough, now I’m going to pretend that people are actually interested in my endorsements. But to make it more interesting, I’m also going to give you my predictions.

President: John Kerry

The Bush administration is without a doubt the most astonishingly incompetent in US history. And I have a BA in History from an Ivy League university, so you can trust me on this. Seriously… Bush makes James Buchanan look like Franklin Roosevelt, and Andrew Johnson resemble Uncle Teddy. He’s turned huge surpluses into huger deficits, and universal good will towards America into universal enmity… in fact, the greatest accomplishment of the Bush presidency was stealing it.

Personally, I’d be happy enough with an “anyone but Bush” endorsement; the fact that John Kerry is such a worthy candidate is icing on the cake. Kerry is thoughtful, curious, intelligent, and honest… everything Bush is not. Is he the most exciting candidate? No. But he may be exactly what we need at this dangerous moment in our history.

Prediction: Given a free and fair election, Kerry 51%, Bush 48%. So it’s a toss-up.

US Senator: Patty Murray

Both Patty Murray and George Nethercutt have something in common: they originally lucked their way into high office. The difference is, the physically diminutive Murray has grown into one of the most effective US senators (in the nation) whereas the politically diminutive Nethercutt has been satisfied to coast these past ten years on his undeserved reputation as a giant killer.

Prediction: the four-foot-and-change Murray whoops the giant killer’s ass, 57% to 43%.

Governor: Christine Gregoire

My regular readers know that I was big Ron Sims supporter. But I’m also a political pragmatist (really… I am) and the choice between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi is a no-brainer.

Gregoire is one of those middle-of-the-road, somewhat boring politicians that Washington voters seem to favor. She’s clearly pro-business while maintaining strong sympathies for many traditional liberal causes. She’s smart, dedicated, and has years of experience as executive of the state’s second highest office.

Rossi, on the other hand, is a complete and total fraud. He’s running on his experience in business, when really he was just real estate agent… a salesman. By that measure, anybody who has ever been employed in the private sector might call themselves a corporate executive. He’s also staking his campaign on the contradictory claims that he is both an Olympia outsider, and managed to single-handedly close a multi-billion dollar hole in the state budget. (Neither is true.)

The biggest lie however is his attempt to paint himself as the kind of harmless, middle-of-the-road, somewhat boring politician that Gregoire really is. Rossi is just as passionately right-wing as the previous nominee, John Carlson… only with oddly appealing soft-spoken mannerisms, reminiscent of a gay man proudly displaying the Victorian house he just restored. Or perhaps it’s the mannerism of a real estate agent selling a Victorian proudly restored by a gay man.

Whatever. The point is, unless your idea of good government is corporate tax cuts and and the type of massive deregulation that brought us Enron, vote for Gregoire.

Prediction: Closer than I would have liked… Gregoire 52%, Rossi 48%.

Attorney General: Deborah Senn

Please, please for the love of Mike, vote for Deborah Senn. Sure, she’s not the most likable candidate ever to claw her way onto a November ballot… but personally, likability is not the top qualification I look for when hiring an attorney. Plus, she’s a tireless defender of consumers, which is exactly what we want in an Attorney General.

Corporate Washington can afford their own attorneys, and we don’t need to hire them one at taxpayer expense in the form a politically driven, mediocre, empty suit like Rob McKenna.

Oh, and if you’re one of those party Democrats still pissed off at Deborah for one thing or another, give a little thought to the future. Senn’s lifelong dream was to be an AG; this is the last office she’ll ever hold. But if McKenna wins, he’ll use the office as a stepping stone to the Governor’s Mansion or the US Senate. Don’t give a young, nasty Republican like McKenna a toehold on statewide legitimacy… you’ll regret it.

Prediction: Barring HUGE turnout and extremely long coattails… McKenna 51%, Senn 49%.

Secretary of State: Laura Ruderman

I say toss out Sam Reed just because of the shameless way he pandered to voters in championing I-872, the top-two primary. This is an incredibly stupid primary system — even more stupid than the blanket primary it would replace.

I don’t know much about Laura Ruderman, except by all accounts she was an effective legislator with moderate positions from a moderate district. That’s enough for me.

Prediction: the R’s retain their inexplicable lock on this office… Reed 54%, Ruderman 46%.

Commissioner of Public Lands: Mike Cooper

Let’s see, who do you think is best qualified to be the steward of our public lands and natural resources? The guy overwhelmingly backed by the forest products, mining and building industries? Or the guy overwhelmingly backed by environmentalists?

Mike Cooper is a no-brainer. He’s an average guy — a fire fighter — with an above average intellect, and a record of passionately fighting to protect our forests and streams. As a member of the Legislature he consistently receives the highest scores from the League of Conservation Voters.

Incumbent Doug Sutherland is, quite simply, the kind of guy who can’t see the forest for the board-feet of lumber.

Prediction: money and name recognition trumps common sense… Sutherland 52%, Cooper 48%.

8th Congressional District: Dave Ross

I’ve got to admit that I’ve found Dave Reichert’s law-and-order TV ads so persuasive that I’m definitely considering voting for him for Sheriff. But my nod for Congress goes to Democrat Dave Ross.

Ross is truly an independent thinker — and a bit curmudgeonly — not necessarily my kind of Democrat, but probably just the right kind of Democrat for the 8th district. Reichert on the other hand, seems little more than a cardboard cut-out, parroting the conservative GOP agenda. Voters have a clear choice between somebody who is going to simply vote the Republican Party line, or somebody who is going to make their own decisions.

Prediction: Reichert in a squeaker.

State House & Senate: Vote Democrat

Tax reform is my passion, and we’re not going to get any unless the Democrats control both state houses (and even then it will be a struggle.)

Prediction: D’s maintain control of the House… clueless on the Senate.

[Coming up soon Initiative and Referenda endorsements]

The latest from Zogby International, probably the most reliable pollster on national elections, shows Bush 48%, Kerry 47%. But there are interesting caveats:

Pollster John Zogby: “Razor thin margin here, if there is one at all. The President still does not get above 48%. The real news here is that 18-29 year olds favor Kerry 64% to 35%, with 1% for Nader

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According ESPN, the Green Bay Packers win over the Washington Redskins today guarantees a Kerry victory on Tuesday:

If history holds, the 28-14 result portends a victory for Kerry on Tuesday because the result of the Redskins’ final home game before the presidential election has always accurately predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

Nearly as ominous for Bush is the fact that incumbents polling under 50% almost never win reelection.