A few days ago, I analyzed a match-up between Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. The analysis, using the most recent polling data, offered that:
…if the election were held today, we would expect Gregoire to have about a 97% chance of winning the election.
Today, SurveyUSA released the result of a new Washington state poll on Gregoire’s approval. The poll of 600 adults gives Gregoire a 51% approval versus a 44% disapproval, and 5% who are unsure.
Gregoire does best in the Seattle metropolitan region with 54% approval to 43% disapproval. But even in Eastern Washington, she has a positive spread: 49% who approve to 45% who disapprove.
Fully 75% of Democrats approve of the Governor, but one out of three Republicans also approve of her performance. One seemingly concerning finding is among “independents:” 38% approve and 57% disapprove. But consider this: only 27% of those polled identified as a Republican, whereas 30% said “independent,” and 38% identified as a Democrat. It’s a safe bet that the “independent” category is inflated by a number of right-leaning folks who are ashamed to call themselves a Republican.
After a highly contentious, close election, followed by a multi-million dollar Republican dis-information campaign (a.k.a. the election contest), Gregoire’s approval–disapproval spread started out strongly negative, and remained in negative territory for her first year in office. Then, after a 6 months period of nearly even approval (Jan 2006 until June 2006), Gregoire emerged, permanently, from negative territory. For the past 20 months, her approval has remained relatively stable, averaging 51% approval to 44% disapproval.
To summarize, Gregoire’s approval numbers are stable, in the right direction, and typically over 50%. In recent head-to-head polls against Rossi, Gregoire is always coming out on top.
The take-home message: Gregoire’s reelection campaign is starting out in a position of strength.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)
No question Gov. Gregoire will win reelection by a wide enough margin as to not trigger any recounts. This governor’s seat is going to remain Democrat as the blue tsunami continues to wash over America.
Tough news for the Dino-Sore.
Darryl: Ashamed to be a republican? Can we make such a provocative statement? You mean some people think the absolute mess of government by the Bush adminsitration is shameful?
How could that be? Just because the economy is shot, we are spending 3 billion/day on a unnecessary war and corruption and scandals by republicans are in the news all the ime now – that doesn’t mean that people are ashamed does it?
38% are democrats and 27% are republicans – hmm, 27%, isn’t that a bit high for this state?
I think republicans can make a come-back in Washington by whining more and by pointing out how much worse the economy is in all the other states.
So, is the empty suit running on anything other than “that mean lady stole my election, and I want it back” platform? Or is he just planning on becoming a professional candidate, counting on donar support of his foundation to fund his in-between campaign activities?
Brace yourselves to hear as much whining about taxes from Dinosour as you hear from Roger Rabbit. Yes, it’s going to get that bad.
rhp: donar = donor dollars from the BIAWW (builders in all nooks and crannys)
Gee, I’ve been a voter since the 1976 election, and I’ve never before seen an election cycle where so many Republicans have told me that they intend to vote Democratic this year – across the slate. They are embarrased by the Republicans, and when they get embarrased, they get angry at those who embarrased them. It happened before (1974 congressional elections, 1976 presidential election).
I seriously doubt Rossi will be able to buck the tide – he doesn’t have the gravitas to do well on his own, apart from the wingnut supporters. And if he tries to distance himself from Bush & Co., he will lose their support.
But will dino come out in favor of eliminating the sales tax and going to a graduated income tax?
@9 No, but maybe he’ll come out in favor of beating mothers.
Naaah: Dino will run on the tacit anti-abortion platform and the give developers the rights to build anywhere platform. he knows where his bread is buttered.
I think he’ll do 1 point better than the mother beater — I predict he’ll get 39.5%.
tick, tock, tick, tock….
…waiting for the Chris haters to show up.
Don’t you guys just loooove the way the Dino-Sore has been so high-profile throughout the State…workin’ HARD…building consensus…offering ideas and help and solutions and stuff?
Good Times, eh?
correctnotright @ 9
Of course not. Count on hearing Rossi say what the BIAW wants him to say. If the Republicans could embrace a couple of progressive ideas (such as restoring the Rossi teacher pay cuts, or should I say Rossi/Gregoire teacher pay cuts), Gregoire could actually be defeated. But rhp6033 is correct — it isn’t going to happen. Barring some major shift in state political sentiments, Rossi will run a rather strong race, but lose to Gregoire by several points.
Now THAT’s the way a boy win an election, by crackee!
Roger Rabbit @ 12
Let’s hope not. The mother-beater came several points closer to Sims in King County in 2005, than the Dino-Sore came to Gregoire in King County in 2004. And if you give the Dino-Sore a 1% closer margin in King County than the mother-beater lost by, and keep the rest of the state the same as in 2004, then the Dino-Sore wins by a landslide.
correctnotright @ 3,
“Ashamed to be a republican?”
You focus on national issues that might make someone ashamed to be a Republican. There are numerous local/regional reasons as well: sex offender postcards, Lori Sotelo’s voter suppression squad, almost everything about Pam Roach, Esser the Suppressor’s handling of the caucus, etc.
BTW: 27% Republican identity is roughly average for the last year. The high was 29% last Jan and Sep. The low is 21% last Jul.
@14 And paying himself a plush salary from campaign donations that aren’t campaign donations.
@17 I’m talking statewide, Richard.
@18 Add to that the Roach family’s legislative theatrics … but unfortunately, voters either aren’t aware or don’t care when Republican legislators behave like out-of-control kindergartners, because they keep re-electing them. I swear, that idiotic district in South County would re-elect Pam Roach even if she ran stark flabby naked through the Capitol waving a gun and firing shots into the ceiling …
The next budget is going to be a tough one, and we definitely don’t want Rossi in charge of it. The state is likely to face a triple squeeze in the next cycle.
1) If property taxes go up with rising property values, then (theoretically, at least) they should go down now that property values are declining;
2) We now have double-digit inflation; and
3) Although Washington’s economy tends to lag national trends, the recession eventually will show up here too, resulting in less consumer spending and falling sales tax revenues.
So the next governor and legislature probably are looking at higher expenses just to maintain existing programs and lower revenues at the same time. Something will have to be cut. State employees and teachers probably will not get full funding of COLAs. DSHS will have to curb medical spending. There may be a hiring freeze. Marginal programs may be cut or eliminated. Use of state vehicles will be restricted. In other words, they’ll round up the usual suspects.
Darryl, I would agree that the polling reflects a trend which is better for Gregoire than for Rossi, but I would not be too quick to declare victory. Gary Lock for instance had an approval rating which cut will into the base GOP numbers. And while I was not a Lock fan, when you contrast his approval/disapproval numbers with Gregoire’s what you see is that Rossi has a solid base of support in around 42% to 44%. This fact allows Rossi as the GOP candidate to look for wedge issues which gain him the 6% to 8% he will need to win. When your base is rock solid as his is their is very little risk in how you and your friends like BIAW go after the additional votes you need. So, I would suggest that all Rossi needs is an opening, some luck and for the Gregoire campaign to fail as badly as it did last time. A sagging economy looks like the perfect opening for Rossi and we should expect him to exploit it to the fullest extent possible.
Now the good news is that their is NO CHANCE that the Gregoire campaign will run aground as it did last time. It is also a fact that Rossi has NEVER had to answer for his ethical lapses and violations. The free ride is over and he is going to have a very hard time evading the tough questions he has never been forced to answer.
So, is the outlook good? Yes.
Is the next election a cake walk? No.
Can Gregoire win this thing? You bet she can!
The nation’s economic woes are already upon us. Go through some neighborhoods in Bellevue and every other house has a “For Sale” sign in front of it. And no, I’m not talking about the subdivisions that are just getting finished.
You’re not going to hear much about this from the Bothell Times or the TV stations–they don’t want to do anything to discourage us from spending money with their advertisers.
She can beat Rossi easily if she spends 25% of her money beating up on him, instead of wasting all of it as she did last time. Heck, the guy made his real esate career carrying baggage for a professional criminal; why didn’t she mention that last time, instead of whining that the media hadn’t done that?
I think this poll is flawed, and may understate Gregoire’s standing. Voters are more partisan and indentified with a partisan leaning at this stage than ever before in our state. This poll skews to way too many independents, and does not have a high enough number of Democrats- should be over 40%. Factor that in and she may do a bit better. But the Repub count should be a bit higher, too. Unless they have reached the pont where no one with any self respect will identify themselves as a Repub.
Dino Rossi
Christine Gregoire
50-50 8 months to go.
The Ghost in This Closet
Darryl’s analysis ios great but I suggest we will not know much about her chances until the Presidential race stabilizes.
She will be far better off on an OBama ticket than on an HRC ticket because this would make some of the sexism issues that she keeps raising moot.
Let me also point out that none of us have any idea of what sort of Reprican Rossi will run as. If he runs as a Bushie0Jesus-thimper he is dead. BUT, I suspect between now and June we will begin to see an assortment of nascent neocans .. “reform” groups claiming ot be rebuildiong the party in the anme (sic) od RR. One of these is already in place led by Gungrish. It looks as if Dobson may start a separate one. Fianlly, I keep expecting to here of a third wanna-be-the party under Snegger.
The latter would be a major threat to Gregoire. esp. if .. as in CA, Dino were to be endorsed by Snegger, Steve Balmer,Chuck Hager etc.
The odd thing to my ears is that so far I do not hear any murmors of such a group effort. I did listen to a great talk by Chuck Hager but at the end I was utterly confused about his thoughts about the future of the Reps.
Maybe someone should file a PDC complaint against Dino Rossi. The efforts that Dwight Pelz made last summer overlooked all of Rossi’s most obvious reporting violations.
Posted on the other blog, so sorry if repetitive…wierd I think my 1st post was erased…
I have recently been reading this blog and of course a similar blog made by republicans.
I have never posted for fear of being slammed. But today was the final straw! I am a young voter and just dipping into politics and the one and only thing I get, especially out of this blog, is such extreme hatred, anger, hostility, impatience, name calling, lack of compassion, disrespect…oh my the list goes on.
BUT one thing I am learning is…no wonder our country is sooooo screwed up. So much anger and hatred, no one is willing to work together, or debate without slandering. People on these blogs seem to ridicule and slander anyone and everyone with a different opinion. Isn’t that what America is all about? All of us being “individuals”? If only American citizens could get along and stop this hatred, anger, slandering name calling, maybe our elected officials could learn from the people.
Sorry, just had to rant! But thanks for the last month or so of reading your blog and giving me examples of why our country is so weak right now. I am definately staying away from politics, I will just stick to studying them. I pray Obama can truly change Americans way of thinking….teach less hatred and anger, teach UNITY and working together.
Good luck everyone!
02/27/2008 at 2:44 pm
Richard @ 29,
“Maybe someone should file a PDC complaint against Dino Rossi. The efforts that Dwight Pelz made last summer overlooked all of Rossi’s most obvious reporting violations.”
Great idea! It seems to me that you are far more experienced in PDC violation sleuthing and in filing PDC complaints than anyone else ’round here….
Posting in a few blogs….sorry if you’ve already seen.
I have recently been reading this blog and of course a similar blog made by republicans.
I have never posted for fear of being slammed. But today was the final straw! I am a young voter and just dipping into politics and the one and only thing I get, especially out of this blog, is such extreme hatred, anger, hostility, impatience, name calling, lack of compassion, disrespect…oh my the list goes on.
BUT one thing I am learning is…no wonder our country is sooooo screwed up. So much anger and hatred, no one is willing to work together, or debate without slandering. People on these blogs seem to ridicule and slander anyone and everyone with a different opinion. Isn’t that what America is all about? All of us being “individuals”? If only American citizens could get along and stop this hatred, anger, slandering name calling, maybe our elected officials could learn from the people.
Sorry, just had to rant! But thanks for the last month or so of reading your blog and giving me examples of why our country is so weak right now. I am definately staying away from politics, I will just stick to studying them. I pray Obama can truly change Americans way of thinking….teach less hatred and anger, teach UNITY and working together.
Good luck everyone!
02/27/2008 at 2:44 pm
Roger Rabbit says:
The next budget is going to be a tough one, and we definitely don’t want Rossi in charge of it.
Rog, the reason the next Budget is going to be tough is because of Gregoire’s excessive spending and adding more State Employees (the gift that keeps on giving).
Rossi will succinctly point to the Gregoire Financial “Shell-games” which are too serious to hide anymore.
Gregoire has been banking on the economy staying super-heated to bail her out. It hasn’t.
Now the chickens have come home to roost.
Why is the “NEXT” Budget so tough Rog???
Those are your words Rog.
I’ll tell you why…..”shell-games” and the pressure to build her popularity by overspending.
PS–How is the Seattle traffic these days??
How about those Ferry’s??
Great progress I see.
Gregoire and all of you KLOWNS have a fatal flaw of mistaking MOTION for ACTION.
Polling has been a tough profession in recent years.
Again, I know of no one who voted for Rossi last time and is voting for Gregoire this time. There are plenty the other way around.
Keep dreamin’!
Hi Darryl–
Good luck with Richard on your team.
He blows with the wind.
His latest tact is to suck up to you KLOWNS.
Here comes the wingers – sticking their heads in the sand – they’re getting nothing but bad news these days.
Hannah @ 32
I’m sorry you have such a negative reaction to some of the tussling that goes on here. What you should know is that often much of the invective is done for sport. People who express themselves articulately and with reason are, for the most part, treated with respect by most participants here. Those that come here merely to mouth unreasoned opinions get treated with the derision they deserve. In any event, keep in mind that this is a political blog and politics isn’t played with Nerf balls. Well-stated observations from newcomers are always welcome.
Hey, Mr. C…
You keep spouting off about the “real” problem with the state budget being the employees’ pension liability.
So, since you brought it up, what do you propose as a solution? Would that by any chance involve kneecapping all the state employees and retirees and leaving them to fend for themselves? That seems to be how “leaders” in the private sector seem to have been “solving the problem” for the last couple of decades.
That sort of thing seems to be called “reform” in our new twisted lexicon of social morality. There was once a time it would have been defined as “breach of contract”.
RR @ 12:
“The mother beater” Damn, that was the whole dust up that Puddyud lost his bet to me over. Apparently, John Carlson is a close personal friend of Puddybud who was going to get some air time with him. Never materialzied though.
WOW! 2004 and I didn’t get my lunch until 2006. That “producer” must’ve been working in the Marianas Islands making “made in America” shirts.
#3 correctnotright says:
That’s just liberal bias not identifying democrat scandals. For example –
Former Newark Mayor Sharpe James is scheduled to appear in federal court today for the first of two federal corruption trials.
http://www.dailyrecord.com/app.....1/80226006
Read the article, it omits the corrupt politician’s party. That can only mean one thing, he’s a democrat.
That’s why you are under the impression there are only republican scandals, you are blindly believing the left-wing press.
You ought to at least read the key signature before begining the whining and droning, Marvy. Although your dissonance is mostly cognitive, there are some (ahem) unintended accidentals in there that don’t appear in the notation.
#40 Sempersimper says:
Isn’t google wonderful headless, it allows those without knowledge and talent (especially talent) to snag a few words from the musicians lexicon.
Isn’t google wonderful headless, it allows those without knowledge and talent (especially talent) to snag a few words from the musicians lexicon.
You mean phrases like “tritone substitution” and “Sub-V chord”?
That’s why we add extra credit questions. When you miss the extra credit part, we know you’re full of shit.
The take-home message is that Dino better think about getting a fucking honest job, though that’s probably beyond his ken.
Would some moderator be good enough to point out to Puddy, and his handservant Marvy, who seem to have identity crises (their own and others’) that I am who I am, and these other poor souls who are alleged to be me, should not be held responsible for MY posts?
Or not.
It likely will do no good, since Puddyprick believes only the voices in his head, of which Marvin seems to be the most active…..
And, Marvin, since google is where I get all my “musical knowledge”, perhaps you can use the same resource to identify the following:
Which prominent 19th century composer wrote a well known choral work in which one section is an eight voice, choral double fugue, set against a four voice fugue in the orchestra?
Hint: it employs a chromatic underpinning in the coda, but no stretta.
Composer, Work, Section, please.
@ 45
But, alas, I am afraid! I believe a bit of judicious googling can track that one down.
I haven’t tried, but I’d be a bit surprised. The architecture described is perfectly obvious on hearing it (well, if you have at least minimal counterpoint) but I’ve never seen it described as such in print.
I sorted it out from the vocal score when I sang it 47 years ago, but it may have been throughly described since then. It’s a short, spectacular section in a much longer opus, and its uniqueness tends to get lost in the whole.
The work is very commonly performed today.
DJ@46
Argh, You’re right. I really didn’t realize how cross referenced everything is. But I went directly to the named work and read the description. We’ll see.
Thanks for the heads up. If he gets it, I won’t be stunned into catatonia.
@ 48
I tried a slightly different tack, referenced above regarding the tritone substitution. I asked him to name the first popular song, and the artist, that included an improvised solo that made use of a tritone substitution. Those with even a mediocre knowledge of jazz history are be able to name both the artist and the song off the top of their heads.
You won’t find the answer to that by googling. One has to actually study the subject.
Well, you’ve certainly got me. A tritone is a big no-no in formal chorale harmony, (a la Walter Piston, though Vincent Persichetti may be fond of it) and I got my ass reamed more than once for inadvertently writing it into 4 part chorale exercises in conservatory (which is kinda easy to do when you have to do it in your head and can’t play it, and it occurs in the outer voices.)
They damn well made ME substitute something for it.
@ 50
You sound like someone who hasn’t studied jazz all that much, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you smacked yourself in the middle of the forehead once I told you.
I don’t know jazz from my ass, and I smack myself in the forehead all the time. It does no good.
@ 52
You don’t need to know jazz all that much. There’s a pretty good chance you’ve heard at least part of the song in question, though you might have some difficulty figuring out the artist.
And, I’ve dropped enough clues that a fairly bright person could go to the Bebop page on Wikipedia and figure it out. So far, Marvin hasn’t done that.
Talk about spin? You guys must be dizzy.
I would be terrified to be in Gregoire’s position. She’s spent the last four years giving away money to every special interest that might support her re-election and she still is within the margin of error against her former opponent.
Rossi hasn’t even started to make the case for Gregoire’s failed term. When he does, he’ll close the gap. That’s why you guys are so dizzy spinning this…you know you’re in trouble.
if anyone has a chain saw goldy needs to borrow it he wants to cut rogers pecker off.
These are the same folks that were talking about Clinton tearing the Republicans a new one. Hell our delegate process was over weeks ago, yours are still pissin vinegar with two candidates and a bunch of Super delagates, that are sure to split your party into the mess it has become.
I couldn’t be having more fun watching and waiting for the convention, and look forward to the mudfights and riots!
I’t’ll be more fun that SNL! With writers!
55
Why? Do you need it?
@56
Okay. Can we check back this time next year to see what you’re laughing about?
Correct not right ….
you really do not get it doofuss. Bush was a fifth comner a librul pretending to be a Republican.
Sure he appointed some stand up judges, but did you note they are ALL catholics!!! Not a single decent protestant judge he could find in the whole effin country??? Does that tell you anything?
And look at his Tonto like sidekick .. Condaloppoaloosa. Can you imagine her serving with Dick Nixon or the great Reagan?
Senator McCain is going to prove his mettle by appointing a tough American as his VEEP and form there they will sweep the country!
Rememeber those little PT 109s Kenendy used to give out! I have it on good words that TYCO is coming out with a line of gold and silver jets like the one Our Hero flew in ‘Nam. What will Barcki’s side retaliate with?Turbans?
Marvy??? What happened to Musician Marvin?
MARVY, MARVY, MUSICIAN MAVEN?????
He’s disappeared. Fancy that. All volume, no structure.
ArtFart says:
“Hey, Mr. C…
You keep spouting off about the “real” problem with the state budget being the employees’ pension liability.
So, since you brought it up, what do you propose as a solution?”
Art–
It’s about choices. The Elected Officials get no credit for responsible funding of existing obligations…so instead they find ways to shell-game the issue to the backburner and spend, spend, spend on new initiatives.
It’s like you not making your car payment (which is an existing obligation) and then buying a new Hi-Def TV instead.
I would insist that each Budget pay down at least 10% of the unfunded liability before anything discretionary or new is funded.
That’s the responsible thing to do.
What would you propose Art? Ignoring it or lame-assly attempting to explain it away like my friend Roger Rabbit??
Hey. A chance for me to play straight man:
And your opinion of the fiscal policies of St Gregory of Nickles is….?
Yeh we need to give these leeches an open ended income tax….
Oh that will happen soon in this state. BIG DUH
So why wasn’t it put to a vote this year, on top of the 100 Billion plus in new taxes in 60 days that this leeching legislature has put forth?
Because they have a 2/3 limit now put forth by the voters and they can’t do it themselves?
And their past plan has been to add 7% on top of every thing else plus their 33% increase has blown
Yeh like that is ever going to happen
HA HA HA HA HA HA
Count me among 27% identified Republicans living under Democrat Stalinist bootheel tyranny.