|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 397 electoral votes||Mean of 141 electoral votes|
It has been over two weeks since the previous analysis of the Obama–Gingrich match-up using state head-to-head polls. This is largely because Newt Gingrich’s second lead over Mitt Romney in the national G.O.P. primary polls was rather transient—even more fleeting than his late-2011 lead.
As the life is sucked out of the Gingrich campaign, these analyses become less relevant. A telltale sign of a dying campaign is when pollsters no longer include a candidate in its state head-to-head polls. That has begun to happen for Gingrich. Rasmussen polled Romeny and Santorum, but not Gingrich, in its most recent Florida, New Mexico, and California polls. A Civitas poll in North Carolina and a WBUR poll in Massachusetts did the same. A recent Elway poll in Washington only reported results for Romney.
So, for President’s day, here is an analysis for Gingrich. This may be Newt’s last. I’ll also post an update for Romney, and post Santorum’s very first analysis.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama with 100% probability of beating Gingrich, and leading by (on average) 421 to 117 electoral votes.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins 100,000 times (i.e. Obama has 100% probability of beating Gingrich in an election held now). Obama receives (on average) 397 to Gingrich’s 141 electoral votes.
That newt gains in average electoral votes while losing steam in the primary is because polling is so infrequent at this point. We are now seeing the “fruits” of Gingrich’s surge two months ago.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 403 electoral votes with a 14.82% probability
- 404 electoral votes with a 12.09% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 7.99% probability
- 396 electoral votes with a 6.35% probability
- 397 electoral votes with a 5.17% probability
- 394 electoral votes with a 5.03% probability
- 389 electoral votes with a 4.35% probability
- 398 electoral votes with a 4.30% probability
- 388 electoral votes with a 3.44% probability
- 402 electoral votes with a 3.17% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Gingrich wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 397.4 (11.4)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Gingrich: 140.6 (11.4)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 397 (375, 425)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Gingrich: 141 (113, 163)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|4||8||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Gingrich||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.