The fledgling right-wing propaganda war continues in the Senate race between Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken. As of yesterday’s midnight deadline, Franken trails Coleman by 206 out of 2.9 million votes.
The latest error-prone Wingding propaganda piece comes from Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. writing an opinion piece for Fox News. Lott, a right-wing academic, begins his article by insinuating something sinister behind the changing vote tallies:
[On Wednesday morning,] Senator Norm Coleman led Al Franken by what seemed like a relatively comfortable 725 votes. By Wednesday night, that lead had shrunk to 477. By Thursday night, it was down to 336. By Friday, it was 239. Late Sunday night, the difference had gone down to just 221 — a total change over 4 days of 504 votes.
Amazingly, this all has occurred even though there hasn’t even yet been a recount.
It is hard to know if this is genuinely spin or whether Lott is simply unaware of elementary elections procedures. Changes in vote totals are almost guaranteed in the days leading up to initial certification. There are numerous reasons for this, including ongoing tallying of absentee and provisional ballots, correction of tabulating and reporting errors, and resolution of disputed ballots. In Minnesota, however, the changes are mostly corrections of tabulating and reporting errors because absentee ballots must be received by election day, and with election day registration possible, provisional ballots are not used. (In 2006, Minnesota had no provisional ballots cast. I am unclear whether provisional ballots play any role in Minnesota’s new voter challenge procedures.) Some ballots do remain uncounted at the time the polls close on election day:
Ramsey County found 55 absentee ballots which arrived on time to be counted on election day, but which were not. Those results have now been included in the new totals.
Counting these ballots will obviously affect subsequent reporting.
Contrary to Lott’s insinuations, the only thing unusual about these changes is that people are paying attention:
…county auditors are finding minor errors as they’re proofing their unofficial numbers before shipping them to St. Paul, said John Aiken, spokesman for Secretary Mark Ritchie.
“The counties are trying to be as accurate and transparent as possible. You’ll see fluctuations here and there,” Aiken said.
It happens all the time in every election, he said. The only difference is that for most elections, the margin is much wider and the election less prominent. Here, he said, “The eyes of the nation are on this Senate race.”
Lott goes on to “analyze” the errors, and he offers alarmist rhetoric that overlooks the specifics of known cases. For example, one case of an additional 100 votes for Franken simply reflected a typo:
In Pine County, an election official accidentally entered 24 votes for Franken on Tuesday night instead of the 124 he actually received. The mistake was caught on Thursday and the numbers changed, said Jim Gelbmann from the Secretary of State’s office.
In another case, the change reflected a failure to report any result at all:
In northeastern Minnesota, the town of Buhl’s ballots had been cast but not counted in statewide totals. It turns out election officials there counted the votes but never called them in. […]
Election official Mike Buchanan said that when Buhl election officials arrived a work at 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, “we received a phone call from St. Louis County — they wanted our election numbers.”
They got them.
Coleman received 152 votes in Buhl and Franken got 343, for a difference of 191 in the Democratic candidate’s favor. Not enough to change the results, but enough to tighten the contest even more.
Sinister! Sinister, I tell you!
Lott’s specifics-free discussion of the precincts from which Franken’s votes came ends with this bit of factually challenged, pure Wingnut propaganda:
It was also true that precincts that gave Obama a larger percentage of the vote were statistically more likely to make a correction that helped Franken.
This is the kind of statement that somehow seems authoritative—I mean, using words like “statistically more likely” and all. But it is bullshit technobabble. Statisticians use the term “statistically more likely” to refer to a result that exceeds some benchmark by an amount that is (probabilistically) outside of the sampling error. When the entire population is surveyed (as, say, when all voters in an election are considered), there is no sampling error. A difference is just a difference (or every difference is statistically significant). So Lott either doesn’t understand statistics (doubtful) or he is trying to bullshit us.
Lott offers more sloppy propaganda:
The recent Washington State 2006 gubernatorial recount is probably most famous for the discovery of ballots in heavily Democratic areas that had somehow missed being counted the first and even second time around. Minnesota is already copying that, though thus far on a much smaller scale, with 32 absentee ballots being discovered in Democratic Hennepin County after all the votes had already been counted.
In fact, the 32 absentee ballots in Hennepin County (and the 55 absentee ballots found in Ramsey County) are part of the first count. Even so, it is possible additional ballots will be found in the Minnesota recount. What of it? The whole purpose of a recount to ensure that every ballot is counted and counted correctly. Ironically, it was Republican Dino Rossi’s campaign in the 20064 Washington state race that ended up hunting down additional ballots—after the second recount.
Lott then goes on to downplay expectations that the recount will affect much about the election. He poo-poos an AP article about the magnitude of the undervote, and its possible significance. He incorrectly suggests that voters are warned about undervotes in Minnesota. This is simply incorrect—overvotes are flagged, not undervotes.
Optical scan machines do make mistakes. Minnesota estimates this error rate after each election by conducting audits in about 5% of precincts. The 2006 results gave a rate of 53 errors in 94,073 votes cast. Indeed, in Ramsey County yesterday, the machine audit found Franken gaining one vote out of 7,700 counted.
Lott uses his misunderstanding of the optical scanning machines to raise the same old tired talking points against “voter intent”:
There should be no role to divine voters’ intentions. If a voter wanted a vote recorded for a particular race, the machine tells him whether his vote in all the races was counted.
Yes, there really is a role for discerning voter intent—it’s the law. Minnesota, as a voter intent state, provides clear guidelines on how voter intent is to be discerned.
Finally, Lott offers a Wingnut taking point that has no place in this discussion:
With ACORN filing more than 43,000 registration forms this year, 75 percent of all new registrations in the state, Minnesota was facing vote fraud problems even before the election. Even a small percentage of those registrations resulting in fraudulent votes could tip this election.
Un-huh. I suppose it is possible that Lott has been in a vacuum and actually believes this crap. More likely, he knows better, but just throws this out as Wingnut bullshit designed to cast doubt on the election. Specifically, he is exploiting the widely publicized fact that some ACORN employees have made up registrations (i.e. they have defrauded ACORN, who pays them for registering new potential voters)—information that has come to light in some cases because ACORN has reported what they believe are fake registration forms. Unless Lott believes that dishonest workers subsequently go on to recruit people to go vote as Micky Mouse, there is no link between real people registered by ACORN and “vote fraud problems” at the polls.
So…that is the latest in wingnuttery over this race. Get ready for the howls of “election fraud” when the voter crediting numbers turn out to be less than the numbers of ballots cast.
32 absentee ballots are these the ones they found in a car the other day?
When trying to determine if Darryl’s post has any credibility, ask yourself this: If the situation were reverse, and Franken were ahead, but day after day the lead was closing because new ballots were being discovered, would Darryl being singing the same tune?
I think everything here would agree the answer is no.
And there is your answer to whether his post is credible.
Don’t fall for that wingnut spin, Darryl!!
Just because the disingenuous (at best) Dr. Lott misstates that the gubernatorial recounts were in 2006 doesn’t mean that you have to parrot his error. (in the paragraph following the quoted material about the WA recounts)
It’s “Franken” with an “e”.
Whoa! 2006?
@2 “I think”
Like anybody cares.
N and YLB,
Thanks…writing to a deadline without a copy editor is a bitch!
It’s amusing watching the scrambling on this issue. Some things to note:
1.In 2002, Norm Coleman gained thousands of votes between the initially reported results and the final results as certified. The fact that Franken gained a few hundred votes similarly is no less statistically improbable than that. If you look at the details, he did lose votes in some places, he just netted more when all taken together.
2.From what I’ve heard, it’s likely that the 32 absentee ballots did not follow proper security procedures. This is made more complicated by the fact that there is no statewide standard for proper security. But it seems to me that an appeal to the proper authority on this narrow issue might be legitimate. However, the Coleman campaign’s complaint sought to stop ALL counting of ballots that weren’t either sealed on election day or met other strict criteria regarding absentee ballots. If he hadn’t overreached in asking for something not supported by law, he MIGHT have gotten a more favorable ruling. Although the judge made clear that neither the time nor the venue was the proper one, and thus she ruled against them.
3.The 100 vote discrepancy in Iron Mountain was not – as some have said – a single precinct coming in with 100 Democratic votes. Instead it was an adjustment of a number of votes for Franken up from 406 to 506. On election night, someone called in 406 based on a total on a handwritten sheet that ironically also contained the specifics that add up to 506 votes. A transposition error. The actual tape sent to the SOS showed the 506 votes.
There may or may not be fraud or hanky-panky. But aside from 32 ballots where the chain of custody may be in question (and IMO should be ruled on by a court), none of the number shifts are evidence of that.
Troll, you troll,
I can absolutely guarantee that if and when Franken pulls ahead, Darryl would be just as (constructively) critical of any Democrat who attempts to pass off nonsense like that of Dr. Lott. Unlike assholes such as you, he’s interested in observing an accurate and robust process, irrespective of which candidate wins the plurality of votes.
Of course he would prefer to see Al Franken certified as the winning candidate, but he’ll be satisfied with any outcome that emerges from a fair, legal, and accurate count.
Slathering idiots like Troll can’t understand that.
2
When trying to determine whether troll’s post has any credibility……
I can’t do it. I am laughing uncontrollably. troll with credibility……har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har
har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har har
The GOP is already smearing the Minnesota Secretary of State, of course.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi.....ing_mi.php
Rumor has it that Sharansky is moving to St. Paul to bring his “expertise” to this matter. Don’t forget to tip the skycap Stevie.
Troll,
“If the situation were reverse, and Franken were ahead, but day after day the lead was closing because new ballots were being discovered, would Darryl being singing the same tune?”
What the fuck are you babbling about, kiddo? Did you come up with this notion while walking by my house and seeing me smoke a cigerette or something?
In fact, during the 2004 WA gubernatorial election my position was consistent on these issues before and after Gregoire was in the lead.
N,
“Slathering idiots like Troll can’t understand that.”
Hardly surprising…he once proudly delcared that the female back is not a sexual organ. What do you think: very young or sociopathic castrato?
@14 “very young or castrato”
Hard to say, don’t care. That he’s one incredibly stupid motherfucker is enough to know. We can add “stupid motherfuckers” to ‘goatfuckers, perverts and pedophiles’ as the the type of people presently attracted to the Republican brand. Attracted as in, like, stink to shit.
@14
Yeah, that’s cuz you guys were screaming “sexual harassment” over Sutherland patting some employee on the back.
Edward G. Talbot,
On those 32 absentee ballots that were suposedly in the trunk of a car…that may turn out to be Republican propaganda.
Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie discussed these with FOXNews.com:
Troll,
“…you guys were screaming “sexual harassment” over Sutherland patting some employee on the back.”
Indeed…it was that, several other physical actions, and some verbal interactions that led the DNR to conclude from their investigation that Sutherland had sexually harassed an employee.
But…how would that lead you to make the stupid-ass comment that a woman’s back is not a sexual organ??? Are you retarded? Or just very inexerienced?
@2:
Hmm, let’s see…Marcie Maxwell is in that position right now in her race against Steve Litzow in the 41st.
I look forward to Troll’s jaundiced eye taking the critical measure of a fellow Republican any day now.
Yep, any day now….
@18
I was educating some of you here. Some here were practically screaming “rape” over him patting a woman on the back, and I wanted to point out to some here that may have never had contact with a real, non-online woman that the back is not a woman’s naughty place.
Here is the difference between the partisan, lobbyist inspired republicans (like Bush) and the democrats. Look at what Obama is proposing for rules:
Remember the K street project of Karl Robe, tom DeLay and Abramoff – to get lobbyist access only for Republican lobbyists? Remember the Justice dept. hiring procedures where only loyal republican Bushites were hired?
This is why McCain, with a campiagn filled with lobbyist in key positions LOST. His attempt to be a reformer (along with britches to nowhere Sarah (clothes) Palin) had NO credibility.
the idiot trolls on here who tried to make an issue of Obamas donations never answered my rebuttal of the no PAC money and no 527 stances of Obama – because they couldn’t.
Where are they now with these new rules from Obama? He is going to play fair and to set high moral standards – something totally lacking in the Bush administration.
Troll,
“I was educating some of you here.”
Ummm…no. When you don’t know what you are talking about, you are unable to educate others.
“Some here were practically screaming “rape” over him patting a woman on the back….”
Umm…no. In fact, nobody in that comment thread suggested that Sutherland’s actions constituted rape. They were calling it sexual harassment.
“…and I wanted to point out to some here that may have never had contact with a real, non-online woman that the back is not a woman’s naughty place.”
Sorry, Kiddo, but this only shows your woeful lack of knowledge about sexual harassment. Here’s a primer:
Sexual harassment need not involve physical contact. Unwanted phyiscal contact can constitute sexual harassment.
Unwanted physical contact with “a woman’s naughty place” is no longer sexual harassment. It’s rape.
Sheesh. Children!
troll,
You dolt!!
Any UNWANTED touch in the workplace is/can be sexual harassment. It is up to the touch-ee and not the touch-er to determine the context of a “touch”.
troll, never having held a job, would not know this.
trollop,
Still claiming to be a Democrat, you lying
mothergoat fucker?@24
Who me? I am a Democrat, with the exception of a few issues.
Cheating, lying Bastards! Leftists know the end justifies any means. They are worse than what they claim to abhor.
250 days 15 hours 47 minutes until Obama is tested. – Joe Biden.
Keith Olbermann on the View said didn’t vote for the “messiah”. How can that be?
He must be a horsesASS!
28:
Obama is not the messiah. Can’t you figure it out or are you huffing too much paint. Or not enough?
Puddybud’s posts lately have become so muddlebrained that he has become a caricature of himself.
I am in awe of his accomplishment!
Bravo, Puddybud! Bravo!
#17 Darryl. I had heard that as well re the 32 ballots. I was merely trying to give as much benefit of the doubt to people who might not trust Ritchie. What I have seen regarding the 32 ballots possibly going home with a poll worker struck me as somewhat more possible than the crap about Iron Mountain inventing 100 votes.
However, in hindsight, I should not have encouraged our masturbatory counterparts by trying to be even-handed. I agree that those 32 ballots should be assumed to be legitimate based on the Sec State’s comments. After all, he certifies the entire election, so presumably if we don’t trust him here, we don’t trust when he certifies Michele Bachmann’s result, either.
Carl Friend of His Left Foot:
Did you already forget the fawning messiah references from the Tennessee Congressman Steve Cohen (D-for Donkey), Donna Brazile (Al Gore’s Donkey), Louis Farrakhan (Chi-Town Donkey), multiple media articles?
Each one was posted for your review by Puddy.
Carl, I am shocked, shocked, at your lack of memory. Did you receive a case of Steve’s Stupid Solution and downed a big swig?
You’re much smarter than this when it comes to remembering things.
@32 Well, look at who’s slithered in babbling about a messiah. Pudz! Still in a heavy state of denial, are you? Understandable, seeing as how you got your ass handed to you on the 4th.