I haven’t done too much analysis yet, but it sure does look like the late voters tended to break strongly Democratic, at least around these parts.
For example, at the end of last night, Patty Murray had registered a comfortable 61.82% of King County vote. But in today’s batch of 50,148 votes, Murray scored a whopping 66.7%. Meanwhile, Rick Larsen has taken a small lead in WA-02; we’ll see if that holds up after the Snohomish County vote comes in at 7PM.
Very interesting. And encouraging.
Matt Baretto of the Washington Poll has a spreadsheet up comparing county by county ballot returns reported on election night, 11/2 to those reported today, 11/3, and it’s kinda stunning. 22 counties reported new results today, and of them, only three—Franklin, Pend Oreille and Spokane—reported higher margins for Rossi. The rest moved in Murray’s direction, sometimes by substantial amounts.
For example, Island went from 51.43 for Murray on 11/2 to 54.42 in the 11/3 returns, Skagit from 47.75 to 48.57, Snohomish from 51.3 to 53.2, and Whatcom from 51.17 to 57.49. And I use these counties as examples, because they constitute the four biggest chunks of WA-02, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen climbed from a 1,400 vote deficit on election day to a 500+ vote lead over challenger John Koster today, based on the latest returns. And that appears to suggest that late voters didn’t just break hard for Murray, but for Democrats in general… which also helps explain a number of legislative races moving in the Dem direction today.
Will this trend hold up? Can’t think of a good reason why it wouldn’t.