The KING-5/SurveyUSA poll continues to be the most Dino Rossi-friendly poll in Washington state, but even the latest one reports a nine point swing in Sen. Patty Murray’s favor, giving her a 50-48% lead.
That said, I’m still not so sure about those cross-tabs. This new poll still only shows Murray with 52% of the “Metro Seattle” vote, up from a totally unbelievable 48% one month ago. By comparison, the final SurveyUSA poll of the 2004 season showed Murray with 58% of the Metro Seattle vote, while she ultimately went on to win over 65% of the King County vote on election day.
I’m not sure exactly how SurveyUSA defines “Metro Seattle,” but it’s sure as hell hard to imagine Murray winning only 52% of it.
I’ve said all along that Murray will take it some where on the high side of an 8-12% spread.
King 5’s coverage has been a bit tilted, at least the couple times I happened to be watching. Did anyone else see that smarmy piece Robert Mak did with Reichert explaining his gardening head injury?
Is that really kosher during election season?
In my humble opinion, everytime Rossi appears in his own commercials….they end up benefitting Patty Murray.
Based on SUSA’s reported population percentages by region, I’d suggest that “Metro Seattle” equals {King + Pierce + Snohomish}. If, that is, they define their regions by county.
# 3: That would explain a lot adding north Snohomish County and southern and eastern Pierce County into the mix certainly would dilute her strongest support base. They contain some of the loudest wingnuts around. But I would hardly call either of those areas “Metro”, much less “Seattle”.
I agree with you, rhp. I’m going solely by the “region” population proportions, centering “metro” on Seattle, and making a simple assumption.
It would make much more sense to parse it out by city and town, using knowledge of the makeup of the area. It’s quite obvious, for instance, that Bainbridge belongs in “Metro Seattle”, even though it’s nominally in Kitsap County.
But would a national polling company build its sampling model on such deep analysis of the region? Especially when they’re simultaneously polling in a couple of dozen (or more) other locations all over the country? I don’t know.
One of the things that bugs me most about Rossi is the shape of his head, his hairline, his extra long pencil neck, and the pop-eyed look of perpetual bewilderment and slightly reproving demeanor.
Other than that, he’s great.
SurveyUSA defined Metro Seattle as everything between the southern border of Everett and the northern border of Olympia and extends east to include Bellevue, Issaquah, Kent, Auburn, Buckely, Sumner, Orting, Graham, McKenna and Roy. It also includes DesMoines, Burien, Federal Way, Fife, Milton. It is my understanding that Bainbridge is included as part of the Kitsap Peninsula with Port Orchard, Bremerton, Belfair, etc.,.
RE 7: Don’t include Issaquah. We only go to Seattle AND THOSE OTHER PLACES when we’re slumming.
6
I’d agree with your list, but must add the length of his feet, the size of his ears, the color of his eyebrows, the emptiness in his gaze, the dribble from his mouth, and the confusion in his gait.
Other than that, he’s great.
Q: How can you tell when the dais is level?
A: Dino Rossi drools out of both sides of his mouth when standing at it.
@7, Kitsap should be divided in half politically; Bainbridge and N. Kitsap versus the wingnut anti-tax, Navy dominated, meth-fueled Central and South half. I’ve heard Rossi’s leading over here.
This is the beginning of the end… of Murraymania.
Guess who is back?
No, guess Goldy my friend. Same to all your friends at Murray HQ.
Okay, 1 pic = 1,000 words.
http://tinypic.com/1nzrfb
Yeah, her. Go ahead, drink your champagne. We’re going to take some gas from a flying Airbus BeePee and do our business.
In other news I understand Alan Grayson is ahead by 13 points in his district – one that ostensibly leans Republican.
Just act like a Democrat – serve your district, keep schools open and cops on the steet and you’ll win more often than not.
Zotz
I’m guessing you’d agree with slingshot’s analysis of our home county at 11, correct?
YLB @ 13
Alan Grayson is a national treasure.
Why does anyone pay any attention to any Survey USA poll? they had Susan Hutchinson winning. They had Dino as near Guv. They have a totalky idiotic methodology that no one should pay attention to. But given the sorry and pathetic state of our political media locally, it makes perfect sense they use an unqualified pollster.
@8
You also come here when you are looking for something to do. Issaquah is Bow Oaring! Did hook up with one of your neighbors once, though.
Thanks
Also, EVERYTHING you buy comes through our port, including a huge % of the food you eat. If we shut down, you die.
@14, PL: Pretty much, except that North Mason (Belfair-Grapeview) leans D.
Interestingly, my remote rural Mason precinct has always gone D (I’m assuming all the wingnuts out here must not vote).
Central K is swing to the D side.
South K is swing to R side.
Kitsap Ds thank FSM daily for Bainbridge Is…;-)
Zotz, Tim Sheldon’s from your district, no? What’s up with the D after his name?
Heck, it’s hard to believe Patty Murray winning only 65% of theSeattle Metro vote.
@19, slingshot:
It’s maddening, isn’t it?
Why he keeps getting elected? He’s from an old family, connected, well supported by corporate dollars — particularly extractive / development interests (BIAW).
I can’t really figure out why he maintains the pretense of the D. They haven’t allowed him any chair position. The last time he was a chair (Natural Resources), the Rs controlled the Senate. And he’s isolated. But it is important to note that he is like this (holds up fingers: middle twisted over index finger) with (Sir!?) Brad Owen.
@2. slingshot spews:
King 5’s coverage has been a bit tilted . . . .
Yes, it has. It’s even worse at Belo-owned NWCN. They persist in using DC talking heads who paint Obama and the Democrats in the very worst light. When NWCN runs a Rossi story, they interview one strong Rossi supporter, one who is leaning Rossi, and one nervous Democrat who just isn’t sure about Patty Murray.
How did the respected KING empire that Dorothy Stimson Bullitt built fall so far? Well, they sold it to a pack of East Coast Incompetents who then sold it to Belo, a Dallas company.
Belo is controlled by Dealy Family heir Robert Dechard (pronounced Deckard). Robert Dechard is a bush Pioneer of long standing.
Any questions?