TorridJoe and Carla over at AlsoAlso and PreemptiveKarma respectively, have published the first part of a joint critique of the work of (un)Sound Politic’s prickly, right-wing numerologist, Stefan Sharkansky: “Fisking Sharkansky“.
To sum it up quickly, the Snark’s “definitive analysis” proves definitely wanting.
By Sharkansky’s own admissions, he struggled to create a file that he believed would match what King worked with to reconcile their data. But his struggle was futile from the start, which he must have known: King didn’t reconcile their data at the precinct level, they did it voter by voter, pollbook line by pollbook line. How can you claim you’ve done the definitive analysis, when you don’t even have the right file defined? We don’t think you can.
Sounds reminiscent of my statistical pissing match with Stefan over his claim that a several hundred vote victory by Gregoire in the hand recount, would still leave Rossi the statistical winner, based on plotting the first two counts. As we say in the software biz: garbage in, garbage out.
Carla and TJ hope “ignorance is the excuse” for Snark’s own irregularities, but I’m not so charitable. I think Snark’s a smart guy. And thus he knows he’s misleading his readers.
I look forward to reading their follow-up.