GOP pollster: Cantwell leads McGavick

Speaking of Maria Cantwell… I know why I missed this tidbit — I was busy traveling that day — but I’m wondering why nobody in the MSM picked up on this Aug. 10 survey from Republican pollster Strategic Vision:

If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were Maria Cantwell, the Democrat or Mike McGavick, the Republican, whom would you vote for?

Maria Cantwell [D]46%
Mike McGavick [R]38%

Yeah… yeah… I know, Cantwell is below the 50% mark, not exactly where an incumbent wants to be a year out from the election, but remember… this is a GOP pollster, and McGavick’s numbers barely rise above the hardcore Republican base that would blindly vote for anybody with an “R” next to their name on the ballot. (I call this the Will Baker Wing of the Republican Party.)

But perhaps the best indication that Republicans are more than a little uncomfortable about this poll is the fact that they’ve been so hush-hush about it. McGavick polls no higher than Jennifer Dunn, George Nethercutt or even Chris Vance did in a similar Strategic Vision matchup back in March. Hmmm. Perhaps the state GOP should take a closer look at Susan Hutchison?


  1. 1

    Richard Pope spews:

    You could probably substitute David Goldstein or Richard Pope as the GOP candidate in that poll, and get similar numbers :)

    The GOP needs someone like Susan Hutchison for a change. Otherwise, this race will be at least as big a Dem victory as the Murray-Nethercutt race.

  2. 2

    Mark spews:

    Goldy: “the hardcore… base that would blindly vote… (I call this the Will Baker Wing of the Republican Party.)”

    And Seattle is the home of the McDermott Wing of the Dem Party. So, now we’re even. Both parties have their nutballs and gadflies. You just have enough “true believers” to get yours elected.

  3. 3

    Mark spews:

    Oh, and before someone pops off with some “winger” comment about me, I’d definitely back a Susan Hutchison.

    By the way, Goldy, are you planning an official endorsement post like the MSM editorials? Will you have the courage to choose the best candidate, regardless of party? Will you chicken out and back off your endorsement of Richard Pope? [Goldy, 7/27/05: “Richard strikes me as smart and honest and incorruptible… and so he has earned my official HA endorsement.”]

  4. 4

    righton spews:

    Goldy, ever think perhaps this guy has zero name recognition? I mean you almost have to be a precinct captain to knwo who he is.

  5. 6

    Gary spews:

    The poll numbers don’t matter. You have already shown that you can and will steal an election. You will just steal this one no matter what the majority wants.

  6. 8

    NoWonder spews:

    Thomas Trainwinder @ 7

    ‘2000 Florida is proof positive.’

    Luckily the dems did not get away with it.

  7. 9

    Felix Fermin spews:

    The voters of this state are far too smart to give Bush another rubber stamp in the Senate … besides, the tide is rising against the corrupt, double-dealing, and criminal Republican congress. The thieving bums are on their way out of town.

  8. 10

    JCH spews:

    [Democrats at [lay….lying….cheating…stealing!!!] Tons of voters have registered in New York City claiming to reside at addresses that correspond to city, state, and federal office buildings, public and private schools, churches and clerical offices, and major cultural attractions, a review of Board of Elections records conducted by The New York Sun found.

  9. 11

    rwb spews:


    The poll numbers don’t matter. You have already shown that you can and will steal an election. You will just steal this one no matter what the majority wants.

    blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

  10. 12


    I’m not the MSM, but I did link to Stefan’s pdf of the SV poll results here.

    And of course YOU linked to ME when I wrote the piece…so how did you miss it, again? :)

  11. 13

    Mark The Redneck spews:

    So Dean and Ron have decided to throw Nicole Way into the volcano to see if that works. It won’t.

    The only thing that will restore voter confidence is to elect Irons KCE, and let him clean house.

  12. 14

    Roger Rabbit spews:


    “Goldy, ever think perhaps this guy has zero name recognition? I mean you almost have to be a precinct captain to knwo who he is.”

    You only have to be a Safeco policyholder or shareholder to know who he is.

  13. 17

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Checking the right-wing web sites I regularly monitor, I see the yahoos are bitching about paying taxes for disaster relief, and want poor people who couldn’t escape from Katrina to pay for their rescues. No surprise here — it’s what I’ve come to expect from the it’s-immoral-to-be-poor jackasses.

  14. 18

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    As many of you already know, Stefan Sharansky concluded last week that I, Roger Rabbit, am actually Dean Logan. (He’s wrong, but truth has never been an obstacle for Steffie in the past, so why would he worry about facts now.) As you also know, Steffie has signed up to be a poll worker. This putatively makes Roger Rabbit his supervisor, and as such, it’s my duty to check up on him regularly to see what he’s fucked up now.

    “‘Feds OK Georgia law requiring photo ID to vote” Naturally, the usual suspects are outraged.”

    Uh, yeah, the Rabbit and other right-thinking people ARE outraged by the GOP’s resuscitation of Jim Crow laws we thought were gone forever. You don’t think those racist bastards are going to card white middle class Republicans, do you? The only votes they’re interested in suppressing are poor votes, black votes, elderly votes, did I say black votes, and especially black votes.

    Fuck you, Stefan!

  15. 19

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Steffie not only thinks I’m Dean Logan, he even lies about the spelling of his own name. What a fucking liar.

  16. 20

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    His name is Sharansky, not Sharkansky. I’ll bet he changed it so his parole officer can’t find him.

  17. 21

    Goldy spews:

    Mark @2,3

    Sure, there’s a hardcore Democratic base too. I never implied otherwise. And yes, I will do my own endorsements, just like I did before last year’s elections…. and you can be sure that Richard Pope will lauded in the same spirit as my initial comments on his candidacy.

  18. 22

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    If I were Stefan, I’d want people to think I was somebody else, too. I’d get a rubber Dean Logan mask to wear in public so nobody would know I’m Stefan.

  19. 23

    Frank spews:

    This isn’t news is it? The only way a Republican can win the Senate in WA is if the Democrats run a very unappealing candidate, as they did for Governor in 2004. Democrats have to cross over and vote for the Republican or the Republican loses, simple as that. Alot of Kerry voters couldn’t stomach Gregoire, so she almost lost. I can’t see any Kerry voter not voting for Cantwell – they are almost carbon copies of each other. Cantwell will get the same percentage of the vote as Murray did.

  20. 24

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Hey Cynical, NOV is up $1.65 so far this A.M., but I don’t know if it’s wise to jump in now … it’s over $60 now, and the price has leveled off recently … it may have found its level (for the time being) and after a “pop” from Katrina may go flat again. Still, I think it’s a good buy-and-hold stock over the next couple years and I’m not planning to cash out of it.

  21. 25

    windie spews:

    question for cynical, prr, MTR, gary, mark, et al.

    Are you dupes or operatives in the ‘defile the process to win’ campaign of the WA state righties?

  22. 26

    Mark spews:

    Windie @ 25: “the ‘defile the process to win’ campaign”

    What the hell are you talking about? How do you figure me in that mix? Because I said that Seattle elects a kook like McDermott in George Romero-esque fashion every time?

  23. 27

    windie spews:

    I confuse marks sometimes, I was thinking mark1. One of ‘the marks’ was being really dumb in a previous thread.

    It must piss you off omething awful :p

  24. 29

    JCH spews:

    Looting Begins in New Orleans [Democrats At Play!!!]
    Associated Press , by By ALLEN G. BREED Original Article
    Posted By: 1940s guy – 8/30/2005 1:13:56 PM Post Reply
    NEW ORLEANS — With much of the city emptied by Hurricane Katrina, some opportunists took advantage of the situation by looting stores.

  25. 30

    Mark The Redneck spews:

    Windie @ 25 – We just want honest elections. Count all legal votes only. Number of ballots must exactly equal number of voters. Don’t count provisionals until they’re validated.

    That doesn’t happen now, and isn’t going to happen any time soon.

  26. 35

    windie spews:

    I dunno, Righton, you’ve always sounded payrolled to me.

    As to 33, were you talking about yourself, or Righton?

  27. 36

    joel connelly spews:

    As somebody in the “MSM Media,” I refuse to use Strategic Vision polls and am surprised that you’ve given them the time of day. Strategic Vision refuses to say who paid for its polls, or rather claims they were done for marketing purposes. They’ve come in over the transom, usually just before a major scheduled development in the gubernatorial race . . . and always shown Christine Gregoire’s approval equal to that of the Wicked Witch of the West. A statewide poll takes money to conduct. It should be transparent, or sent to the circular file.

  28. 37

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    joel @ 35

    Are you the real Joel or an imposter? Nobody on HA uses their real name, except that idiot Sharansky (who can’t spell his own name, and thinks Roger Rabbit is Dean Logan).

    Anyhow … Goldy’s point is that if McGavick shows so poorly even in a rigged poll like Stragetic Vision he’s hurting.

  29. 39

    JCH spews:

    35…Joel Connelly……..Of Seattle? When it comes to ignoring Democrat voter fraud, you are in a class of your own!! Seattle voter fraud: kind of like Detroit and Harare, Zimbabwe, but rainy and lots of trees.

  30. 41

    joel connelly spews:

    Yeah, I did sign my own message, and meant it seriously. We see a lot of polls nowadays, and often they drive elections. Casey Corr and Dwight Pelz changed races after getting poll figures.
    A lot of the stuff I see nowadays are “Push Polls,” with questions directed at getting a certain result.
    It’s important that local media approach Strategic Vision stuff using the Gipper’s old slogan for dealing with the Soviets (which later became Hillary Clinton’s motto for marriage): Trust, but verify.

  31. 42

    Richard Pope spews:

    They could probably ask voters to choose between “Maria Cantwell, the Democrat or Joel Connelly, the Republican” and get similar or better results for the GOP candidate.

  32. 43

    Aexia spews:

    The main problem for Republicans is that they have to make a case for change. Why should voters get rid of Cantwell? I’m sure the Republican base can think of lots of reasons that appeal to them, but what reasons are there to support McGavick over Cantwell that would appeal to the rest of Washington State? No Democrat is going to vote for Mcgavick so we’ll have a reliable vote for Bush in the Senate. And on less partisan-charged issues, Cantwell’s “centrism” works to her advantage.

    Rossi had an almost perfect storm of circumstances and still couldn’t steal the election. He had a basic and extremely effective campaign message(agent of change), a non-entity for an opponent, he got dodged taking stands on all the issues that normally sink Republicans in this state and he had a headstart on name recognition. Plus, the left-wing base wasn’t happy with Gregoire and either wrote in Sims, voted libertarian(gay marriage) or voted for Rossi himself “to make it close”.

    McGavick will have none of these breaks. Gregoire’s campaign was instructive in how not to run for office and Cantwell won’t make the same mistakes.

    I think the common thread from all the polls and matchups and approval ratings is that there’s a large section of the electorate, maybe 15%, that’s unhappy with Cantwell, but they haven’t decided to throw her out. She can still win them back. And even if they break against her 2-1, she still breaks 50%.

    My prediction: Worst case, she wins with 52%. Best case she walks away with it at 55%.

  33. 44

    dlawbailey spews:

    Wake up and pay attention.

    If Maria doesn’t do something to increase her credbility (possibly Bush’s FEMA has given Democrats all the credibility they couldn’t get themselves), she may well lose. McGavick shouldn’t have anything like these numbers right now.

    Kerry proved that candidates who don’t communicate a clear message are vulnerable.

    Pay attention.