Another poll has been released today in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and real estate tycoon-turned-perennial-candidate Dino Rossi (R). The FOX News poll taken on 30 October on 1,000 likely Washington voters (for a 3% MOE) has Patty Murray leading Rossi 49% to 47%.
That’s very interesting, because earlier today, I reported on a Public Policy Polling poll that had Rossi in the lead by +2%. Both were robopolls.
My usual Monte Carlo analysis of this poll has Murray wining 671,871 times, whereas Rossi wins 319,994 times. In other words, this poll alone gives Murray a 67.7% probability of winning to Rossi’s 32.3% chance.
Combining the last seven polls—all taken over the past two weeks—gives a total of 6,371 “votes” to work with. Of these, Murray received 3,073 (48.2%) of “votes” and Rossi received 3,052 (47.9%). The Monte Carlo analysis has Murray winning 568,596 simulated elections to Rossi’s 427,966 wins. That is, the polls support a Murray victory by 57.1% and a Rossi victory by 42.9%.
The result is close! Neither analysis presented here can be considered outside the margin of error. Here is, what I believe is, the final graph for this race: the last couple of months of polling results:
Make of it what you will. The polls say it is a tie or a very small Murray victory. So what do I think will really happen tomorrow? First, let me state that I obviously want Murray to win. Even so, in my professional life, I am a scientist, and evidence is exceedingly important to me, even if it goes against my desires or pet theories. So here goes….
As I outlined at the end of this post there is a discrepancy between live interview polls and robopolls in the Washington Senate race that has also been seen nationally. I offered an explanation (i.e. a theory) as to why the discrepancy exists. It all leads me to believe that robopolls are systematically underestimating Murray’s performance in this race. If the theory is correct, I expect Murray to come away with about a +5% advantage over Rossi after all the votes are counted. But I concede that tomorrow night, reality will confront theory.
Reality always wins.
The headline should say 49 to 47, which you have correctly in the body of the post.
JimmyTheGeek,
Corrected…thank you!
“Reality always wins.”
Well, you’re obviously not a Republican.
I just hope the Republicans can win and save us from the “DEATH PANELS”(tm) before they come and take my grandma! They’ve already almost (never) come for my guns too! In my psychotic paranoid imagination Obama has tried to take my guns a dozens times so far! Now the death panels killing grandma! PLEASE REPUBLICANS, SAVE ME!
(sarcasm)
Let the whoopin begin!
Prediction, All Initiatives pass, State government can come back in session and start cutting the crap outta their budgets like the rest of us civilians have had to do in this Recession / Depression!
Murray Rossi, anybody’s guess, probable recounts, I hope not for Kan’t County’s sake.
Congress by 50+
Senate Dems hold by 1 or 2
13,670 Trillion and counting! Over 55 Billion additional debt in October alone, flushed down the drain!
A Day of Reckoning is here…and this shows where our “misleader” currently stands in the eyes of likely voters nationally…
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
This poll out today shows that majority of likely voters by 14% points feels this is a vote on the Obama Agenda…but again, that is nationally.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
I doubt Obama will change course. If the R’s take control of the House, they will pass a series of legislation that outlines their approach to the key issues. My guess is that the Senate will likely kill most or all…but perhaps not with 23 out of 33 Senate Seats up for grabs in 2012 being currently held by Democrats. What gets thru, will be vetoed by Obama. The Voters will pay close attention to what is being rejected as the economy continues to swoon. 2 years from now will be a referendum once again for what happened the past 2 years 2009-2010 and what happens the next 2 years.
I believe the majority of voters will hold Obama and Senators accountable for their voting record and big issues like Cap & Tax, ObaMaoCare and Porkulous…plus they will look at unemployment and deficit spending.
Will Obama dump some of his advisers like David “the devil” Axelrod and Robert Fibbs?
http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....er-circle/
Personally I think Obama should try the “fresh start’ approach. He won’t though because he is an Axelrod puppet! Too naive and lost to do his own thinking. Obama has reached his level of incompetence..in fact, he did so before he took office.
By the way, the recovery is going slower than we had hoped, but it’s coming.
Boeing news release this morning says that their analysis of air cargo traffic shows that worldwide air cargo traffic rebounded strongly beginning in the fall of 2009 and continuing through 2010. Boeing anticipates world air cargo traffic to increase at an average annual rate of 5.9%. This conforms to other reports I’ve been seeing, which shouldn’t be a surprise, since I’m seeing the same raw data reports that Boeing is seeing when it makes it’s analysis.
Air cargo is a bellweather indicator for the economy as a whole. It provides a measurement of the amount of goods which are in transit between the manufacturers and distributors and retail shops.
You might wonder why the Republicans are so determined to gain control of Congress in these elections, to the point that they are pulling out all the stops far beyond the usual. You would think that with a poor economy, they wouldn’t be so eager to take on the rather thankless task of righting the ship.
But the Republicans know full well that the economy is going to be getting constantly better over the next two years. After driving the economy into the ditch, and watching the wrecker pull it out, now they want the keys back so they can take credit for the recovery.
Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast Affected by Resurgence Following Recession
Air cargo traffic rebound set for long-term growth
AMSTERDAM, Nov. 2, 2010 /PRNewswire/ — World air cargo traffic will expand at a 5.9 percent annual rate over the next two decades, with worldwide air freight traffic expected to triple through 2029, according to the Boeing (NYSE: BA) World Air Cargo Forecast 2010/2011.
Boeing released the biennial forecast, which is widely cited by airlines and industry groups, at the International Air Cargo Forum and Exhibition 2010 in Amsterdam.
Air cargo traffic rebounded strongly beginning in November 2009 and continuing through the first eight months of 2010. As a result, world air cargo traffic is expected to regain its 2007 peak by the end of this year.
Oops, I meant to blockquote the last paragraph, taken from the news release.
“Senator Rossi!” Kinda has a nice ring to it, dontcha think?
@11 and 12: Sorry for the buzzkill, but Boeing wants to sell planes.
Absent some breakthru (unlikely), I predict that we’re going to bump up against energy supply as the economy “improves”, rendering the cost of flying goods (and people, frankly) around the world prohibitively expensive.
Of course the election outcome could add several layers of Teatard obsttruction to that.
The days of fight as a means of travel (for most of us) and distribution are numbered.
rhp6033:
Factor in any negative impact from the cartridge bombs from Yemen? Is there any (hope not)?
The Fed is poised to flood the economy with lots of new fiat money. Many commodities including oil appear to be testing new highs in price.
Yikes! Stagflation anyone?
Pyrite’s Brother…
You forgot one very important thing in your analysis which you have completely ignored.
That in the only two polls that have asked if you have already voted Rossi leads by 52 to 47 and 50 to 48. With about 60% of the people already voted Murray will need to take about 55% of the balance of the votes.
Rossi will be leading when the votes are counted at the end of tonight and will continue to lead as the ballots are counted in the coming days.
Let me be first to welcome Senator Elect Dino Rossi…
Heres my prediction on the Rossi/Murray race. Close enough for a required recount and the King county democrats suddenly start finding missing ballot boxes behind desks printers, etc. Murray wins but its a tammy hall win as usual in King County
# 18: Again, with that nonsense?????
Need we remind you that in the 2004 governor’s race, the Republicans chose to challenge the election in a reliably Republican county which only had two Superior Court judges, and therefore effectively chose which judge was going to be hearing the case. After all the evidence was presented, the judge SUBTRACTED a handful of votes from Rossi’s total due to illegal voting BY REPUBLICANS.
The Bush White House tried to get the U.S. Attorney General, McKay, to investigate and file charges against Democrates in time to enfluence the outcome of the contest, but he refused because there was NO EVIDENCE of criminal wrongdoing. McKay was later fired by the Bush White House for refusing to commit an illegal act (politically-based prosecutions).
Republican Secty of State Sam Reed was also asked to intervene, but he also refused to do so because there was no basis for doing so. For his efforts, he was effectively blacklisted by the Republicans from getting any party support if he chose to run for any higher office.
But don’t let the facts get in your way, if it makes you feel any better to ignore them whenever they conflict with your wishes and dreams.
King County Elections has Patty’s back.
National media even says so.
By hook or crook eh Patty?
@10: Klynical
As if we should ever take any advice from you on Obama – you were against him before he took office and blamed the stock market crash on him. You call him juvenile names because you have a third-grade level mentality.
I gave Bush a chance when he took office – and he turned out to be the worst President in history. Starting an unnecessary war and lying about it, alienating most of our long-time allies and creating the largest budget deficit in history while simultaneously drivng the economy into the worst hole since the great depression – but you supported the guy….
21
Sorry
Dollar failing
Unemployment 20% including underemployed
50 mil on food stamps
skyrocketing defecits
No budget anywhere in site
Obamacare tax disaster
Lowest home ownership in a decade
While he golfs, flits around, and takes 200million dollar a day trips to India to see a F’n Mosque?
What planet is this guy on.
By the time the dollar falls to an all time low and you feel the inflation results of this, you will think the Carter era looked great.
21
Sorry
Dollar failing
Unemployment 20% including underemployed
50 mil on food stamps
skyrocketing defecits
No budget anywhere in site
Obamacare tax disaster
Lowest home ownership in a decade
While he golfs, flits around, and takes 200million dollar a day trips to India to see a F’n Mosque?
What planet is this guy on.
By the time the dollar falls to an all time low and you feel the inflation results of this, you will think the Carter era looked great.
Seriously, what kind of loser answers a robopoll? Don’t these people have lives or jobs?
23 – You have Canadian citizenship. Get the F out.
The ratio of debt to GDP is higher, you don’t have to worry about going bankrupt if your health takes a turn for the worse, the military is way less bloated and unemployment is lower. And let’s see…
Oh the Loonie is worth just a tad less than U.S. Dollar right now – that’s good for Canadian exports!
Hell even a right winger is PM there. You can hate Obama just fine from there!
Weather kind of sucks in a lot of the country but you can’t have everything.