Folks interested in examining Electoral College scenarios may find Michael Tomasky’s Daily Beast article of interest:
So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.
So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?
Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states….
Read the rest here.
Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!
It’s almost time to dust off this old Nixon chant and shove it up the Pubbies’ asses!
Tomasky’s article refers to the work of Nate Silver, who correctly called 49 of the 50 states and all 35 Senate races in 2008.
Silver’s latest forecast (Aug. 4) puts Obama’s odds of winning at 70.9%, and gives Obama 299.8 electoral votes to Romney’s 238.2.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Bobby Jindal was talking up Paul Ryan as a veep pick today. If Romney loses, as seems likely, Ryan would immediately become the GOP frontrunner for 2016.
It’s not too soon for Democrats to be thinking four years ahead. A Ryan presidential run would set up a battle for the soul of America. We liberals will be fighting to preserve the New Deal, and we need to start thinking about who will carry forward that fight for us after Obama leaves the scene.
I can’t shake the idea the repig animals figured this all along, which is why they have “supported” the latter day snake.
He isn’t really conservative enough for them, and they realize that like any latter day snake he’ll say anything to get his way. The bastard “children” of joe smith are all poison. They shouldn’t even be allowed to vote. Even the repig scum realize this – stopped clocks, etc.
Willard has been set up for an expensive fall. Let’s hope he spends all his money in the process.
@4
woohoo! Another HA regular is gettin’ da hate on!
Of course, if you say something similar about another religion..oh, say islam, well then you would be called a RAZIST!. But since its about a Republican Mormom, its A-Ok is libby-land.
They shouldn’t even be allowed to vote
wow…..just…….wow…..
@5 Why do you have a problem with liberals behaving like conservatives?
@6,
Because conservatives being lying, cheating, racist pigs is expected. Liberals must always be held to a higher standard.
I have a problem with assholes behaving like assholes, regardless of political stripe.
LMFAO….does your pussy always hurt this much?
and of course all the HA(ters) regulars are out in force to defend Dan Brownshirt.
Question:
If we’re going to call Romney’s fitness to hold public office into question solely because of the religion he belongs too, not because of anything he said or did based on that religion, but the mere fact that he belongs to it, shouldn’t we also question Harry Reid and other Mormon office holders fitness to hold public office as well?
@9,
Not as much as your momma’s after we finished last night.
@12
OK, gotta admit, that was a good one.
Romney is truly an empty suit. There is nothing there there. Yet, he’s the best the Rs could do. They have no bench, nothing. They are headed the way of the Whigs. Too bad, really.
@11 You raise a good point. To reject a politician because of his religion is wrong. Progressives get upset if someone is rejected because they are muslim or atheist, etc, the same principle must be applied. True, the religion has it’s problems, but the same could be said for southern baptists, evangelicals or Catholics, etc.
Romney the man, has plenty to argue against him. Focus on his actions, words and deeds.
@ 14
They have no bench, nothing.
Christie.
Ryan.
Jindal.
Sandoval.
Haley.
Martinez.
Rubio.
Pawlenty.
Jeb Bush.
Barbour.
I might point out the number of minority groups represented by those names but it really is not necessary.
What’s the Dem bench, after Hillary?
I think you win prize for most stupid post of Sunday, August 5th.
@16
You are wrong! The dems one huge piece of political firepower waitin in wings….drum roll……wait for it………darcy burner! Blahaahaahaaahahahaahhaha
@ 17
I hear Kucinich will soon have some free time as well. Now that I think about it, so will Claire McCaskill.
I’m liking Elizabeth Warren for 2016, personally.
It is about time the Dems gave a good lady her shot.
Problem with all those Repiglican back-benchers is that they don’t meet the “next in line” test that’s required for that party … the only ones that can meet that standard are the ones who couldn’t even beat Romney this year. Gingrich is probably the most credible of that sorry lot.
Hey Serial – still waiting to hear from you on that $1000 bet – gonna put up? Well … at least we haven’t heard him say “put your money where you mouth is” lately …
Actually Pawlenty is way more credible than Gingrich, but the red meat loving Repigs will never nominate a guy who has all the flavor of tofu …
@ 19
Yeah, we’re on. You’re not my priority right now but I’ll catch up.
@ 19
Tell me more about that next-in-line test – one I have not previously heard – and how it applied to GWB43 in 2000.
@22
Nepotism trumps rules for elitist Repigs,
of course. I guess that might work for Jeb
if his family name can ever recover from the
GW Bush disaster.