| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 370 electoral votes | Mean of 168 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes, on average, in a hypothetical election held today. There were 16 new polls in 11 states released today. The polls lean Obama’s way, so that he gains a bit.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes. Needless to say, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Ohio, W. Virginia, Virginia, N.Carolina – what a lovely shade of pastel blue, all in a row!
I can’t help but think that a big urban turnout in Charleston might result in a surprise victory for Obama in S. Carolina there. The Atlanta megapolis MIGHT do the same for Georgia, but that’s a lot to ask for.
Arizona has changed to from “solid McCain” to “leaning McCain”? I’m sure McCain will win there, but it shows the level of erosion of his support if his home state is slipping.
What happened to Nevada? It seems to be going against the trend here, showing as “undecided” now. It was “leaning Obama” a day or so ago.
Louisianna would be for Obama now, except that Bush reniged on his promise to restore New Orleans, and now a good part of it’s population has been dispersed among the southern red states. Mission Accomplished!
So, the last debate is McCain’s last chance to turn this around. It’s tonight, isn’t it? Time for the “October Surprise”?????
If you were McCain, what would you want to happen????
1. Have McCain suspend his campaign and postpone the debate so he could personally fly to Iraq in order to personally conduct a surge operation where he opens a closet and finds Osama Bin Laden hiding there.
2. Have the Treasury Dept. dump the remaining cash in the bailout plan in purchasing stocks this morning, driving the prices up beyond the 12,000 level.
3. Produce photo-shopped pictures in the debate of Osama bin Laden hugging Obama in a passionate embrace which goes beyond mere friendship.
4. Have federal authorities raid Obama’s home and announce that they have found in a basement workshop a cache of AK-47’s, bomb-making implements, and a blueprint of the pentagon and detailed plans (in Obama’s handwriting) for an attack upon it.
Anything else they could pull out of their nether regions at this late date??????
At sites like FreeRepublic there’s an “October Surpise” every day. Photoshopped pictures, whisper campaigns, the latest garbage that’s surfaced through robocalls, viral e-mails and push-polls, etc.
The psychotic id of the right wing is at that website for all to examine, study and laugh at.
I haven’t been there in a while and I’m very reluctant to go but it’s all there for the serious student of right wing insanity.
Dear rhp6033 – what they can pull out of their nether regions is vote theft. Do not count your chickens before they’re hatched. It is too early to gloat. Never trust a Republican. Watch. Yell. Kick. Take to the streets, if necessary. If this be treason…
It’s too bad it took an economic disaster of Biblical proportions to kick the American electorate out of their collective insanity; but it was bound to happen — a disaster of Biblical proportions, I mean.
@3 I wonder how many Freepers are behind on their trailer payments, maxed out on their credit cards, and have had their pickups repo’ed? Are they allowed to retrieve their guns from the rear window racks before the tow truck hauls it away? Or do they have to go to the towing company’s office to get their artillery back? Ya know, whenever I think about it, I think liberals ought to arm too, because these freaks are armed — just in case.
By the way,
I LOVE SARAH!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgHHX9R4Qtk
Silverman, that is..
Roger Rabbit Quiz
Hey kids! It’s time to test your knowledge of current events again! This question is tricky so put on your Thinking Caps and don’t be hasty, okay? Ready, set, here we go …
Which party nationalized U.S. banks?
[ ] 1. Democrats
[ ] 2. Republicans
[ ] 3. Libertarians
[ ] 4. Greens
[ ] 5. Socialists
Remember I said this was tricky! A lot of you may be objecting that you can’t tell the difference between Choice 2 and Choice 5. However, there is only one correct answer! So, think long and hard before you make the leap, because once you give me your Final Answer, your choice is irrevocable!
Roger Rabbit, I have a restaurant/tipping question for you. This is not a trick question. I honestly want to know what you think about this issue, because I think you are a man of sound financial thought.
When tipping after a meal at a restaurant, do you tip on the total bill, or only the before taxes portion of the bill? I have always tipped on the total bill, but now am wondering why the hell I am tipping on the tax portion of the bill. Now that I think about it, that doesn’t make any sense. Would it be cheap of me to tip on only the before tax portion of the bill?
My hunch is this race will tighten up to 2-3 points in the next week….with some reall tightening in key Battleground States.
The main reasons are a realization that with the most Liberal Senator, O-blah-blah, as President there are no checks & balances on Pelosi/Reid Congress, there will be no accountability for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac cheerleaders Barney Frank & Chris Dodd plus the actions of ACORN and the fact that O-blah-blah’s campaign contributed over $800,000 to ACORN and tried to disguise it…will cause many undecideds to shift to McCain.
I do not think McCain can win. But I think it will be a whole lot closer than you KLOWNS have deluded yourselves to believe.
If you look deep into the numbers, you will see O-blah-blah climbing in California & NY…2 states he already has in the bag. It distorts the National Poll numbers significantly.
The key is to keep your eye on Battleground State Polls. It’s the Electoral College that decides who is President…not national popular vote.
Porr cynical, still citing the same bullshit from the National review – Obama is a centrist – 37th out of 100 according to reliable rankings of “liberals”.
Must feel good to keep repeating the republican talking points – but getting nowhewre.
The smell of desperation is in the air for McCain. The choice of Palin has backfired and now she is dragging down the ticket as she makes blunder after blunder and declares herself to exonerated when she was clearly not – she has NO credibility left and neither does McCain. McCain will pay the price for going negative when he promised not to do that. The more false attacks or Obama’s character he launches, the more soiled he becomes.
Following up on correctnotright…
McCain is in a really tough spot for tonight’s debate. The only way to (try to) reverse his collapse is to attack Obama directly, but in these difficult and sobering times such an ad hominim assault runs the huge risk of being seen as a mean and angry diversionary tactic. Unless he has some rhetorical skills heretofore unseen, he won’t be able to pull it off.
On top of that, there’s the format. The two of them will be sitting at a table, just a couple of feet apart, facing avuncular Bob Schieffer. So the personal attacks will look even more personal than they might if tossed from a distant podium. As McCain’s anger rises, we’ll be able to see how cool and collected Obama is.
The image of Obama playing chess, or perhaps poker, while McCain is shooting craps really does hold. Snake-eyes for McCain, a pair of aces for Obama.
Dow is down 385.34 (4.14%) after half of the trading day. Looks like the market has noticed that we are all out of money and bush and co is doing little more than plugging fingers into the dike till after the election.
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Until we start making things in America again, have fair trade, not free trade, have the option of strong unions and have an economy with checks and balances, I bet it’s going to keep going down till we reach the economy of a 3rd world country.
Conservatives, you disagree?
N in Seattle–
McCain must look O-blah-blah in the eye and ask him if he will hold Barney Frank & Chris Dodd accountable for their roles in this financial meltdown. Yes or No.
McCain will pummel O-blah-blah on the lack of any check-or-balance on Democrats if O-blah-blah is elected.
bluejohn–
Unions have become part of the problem. Just look at the Boeing Strike. It’s ridiculous what the Union asked for. 10%/year increase for 3 years/??? Outrageous.
Say good-bye to Boeing in Washington.
They will move to a right-to-work state…Texas or Alabama.
Watch.
And the Unions will act like victims.
If you don’t believe Boeing is headed for Texas, take a look at this article which shows 4 Texas Cities in the Top 10 US Cities in terms of Cost of Living:
Best and Worst Bang for the Buck Cities
Abha Bhattarai, Forbes.com
Oct 10th, 2008
Seattle is soooooooo arrogant.
They truly believe Boeing has no options.
Fools!
Boeing is headed for a Right-To-Work state with much better cost-of-living.
All the taxes, transportation debacles, costly light rail proposals…all add to the cost of living.
Plus, you KLOWNS are determined to kill the Construction Industry.
Boeing isn’t stupid.
Look for Gregoire to make HUGE last minute concessions in a desperate attempt to keep Boeing here….just like Locke did. Locke gave away Waaaaaaaaaaaay more than he had to if only he had stepped up sooner.
Where is Gregoire on this Boeing catastrophe??
Busy dreaming up more ways to sue Rossi??
Fools.
The workers are doing what they are supposed to do, in a capitalistic economy. Get as much money as possible for themselves, regardless of who it hurts.
Why is it justified for executives to ask and get absurd amounts of compensation and still ruin a company and but the workers should shut up and accept a pay cut for the good of a company?
blue john–
Re: Boeing Situation
It’s a game of chicken between the Union & Boeing…with the Workers most likely to lose as I pointed out.
bj–I have noooooooooo problem with the Union asking for the moon. Good luck to them. What I’m telling you is there are some mighty horrific consequences workers must be prepared to accept. That’s all.
It’s easy for unions to play bullyboy & chicken with workers lives & futures.
What if Boeing calls the bluff…and moves.
Who loses bj??
ANSWER: WORKERS! Also State & Local Government coffers will be depleted.
Hey, that’s Capitalism, It doesn’t matter what happens to the state and local coffers.
All that matters is make more profit, regardless of the consequences.
Isn’t that the mantra of the corporate conservatives?
This is making the rounds but it’s priceless
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“I’m just going to reprint his amazed e-mail about the focus group:
”
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So how those neo-conservative values working for ‘yah?
Dow 4:01PM ET Change: Down 742.16 (-7.97%)
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So how those neo-conservative values working for ‘yah?