| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. There were six new polls released today—including four important swing states—but almost nothing has changed. For the third day straight, the electoral vote tally is unchanged. Pretty unusual.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one, suggesting that, in an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning. Once again, Obama gets (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
When I see video of the paste-eaters at the McCain rallies, I have to think that either we are a nation (350 million strong)in need of assisted living aides / home-care-visitors , OR Obama is going to walk away with this.
I prefer fivethirtyeight personally, but the difference is only 9.9%
McCain’s history. Gone. He has nothing to lose, so why doesn’t he do something different and dramatic? For example, why doesn’t he come out and present what would be his cabinet? Telling people, if elected, this dude would be Secretary of this, and this chick will be Secretary of that, etc. But this time, he’ll make popular choices, not pick obscure, crazy picks.
@4 If McCain wants to do something different and dramatic, he should offer to serve in Obama’s cabinet. He can be Secretary of … Secretary of … give me a few minutes, something will come to me …
Secretary of Sanitation.
Heh. He can choose Flush Limpblows as Secretary of right wing bullshit.
Ok, here is a bit of interesting news. Another Obama endorsement from the reasonable right. Yes, those people still exist.
Christopher Buckley, son of William F. Buckley, and himself a life-long conservative and major contributor to the National Review has decided that his long-time friend, Senator McCain has changed to the point where he can no longer support him.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/b.....-for-obama
Choosing not to deal with the death threats and venom spewed out upon other conservatives (Kathleen Parker, for example) that have decided that Senator McCain is an unacceptable choice for President, he made this announcement online, but it is, nonetheless, a rather amazing endorsement.
Hopefully, other conservatives of the small government, fiscal responsibility school will start coming out of wherever the have been hiding while the neo-cons took over their party.
While if we must end up with only one viable political party, I much prefer it to be the Democratic Party, we must acknowledge that there is great value to having two parties honestly debating on issues.
The key word there is “honestly”. If honest conservatives can re-take control of the Republican Party, it will make them harder to beat in the long run, but it will be better for us, both as a party and as a country.
It ain’t over ’til the Supreme Court sings.
May I remind all my progressive friends, it ain’t over to every ballot is cast and counted. The Repubs have lost their edge this year, yes, but they will still try to close strong and they have a good history of that in recent years. This race may have the fat lady warming up, but it ain’t over. Many other races hang in the balance, especially whether we will have a thoughtful, compassionate, and experienced hand as Governor, for these very challenging times, or the slimy salesman.
Its all out all the time through November 4, and remember even ballots postmarked that night after polls close are still good.
Celebrate after the election.
@9: Tom is right. This race is not over. the republicans will try to pull out all stops and to bring in the race card (see today’s Seattle Times article for example).
Also, the republican tactics can easily be seen in the editorial of the always wrongwing (and blatantly partisan) Krauthammer. As usual, he ignores all of the clear ethical issues with Palin and goes after the peripheral “associations” of Obama. What a partisan hack! Remember, this is the neocon moron cheerleader for the Iraq war who claimed there would be a new order in the Mideast after the Iraq war. I guess he forgot to read the article today about the Christians who had to flee Mosul for their lives. Yup – we have truly brought democracy to Iraq and the rest of the middle east. Idiot!
The RIGHT is busy, as we speak, rigging this election.
Make sure that you vote. Check to verify that it was counted.
Let’s wait and see if the Bradley effect kicks in.
TLG