| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
The first analysis of today, based on 34 newly released polls in 15 states showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a mean of 362 electoral to 176 electoral votes.
An afternoon update, based on 12 new polls in 10 states gave Obama an expected 363 electoral votes to McCain’s 175. Finally, this evening I added six new polls in five states that were released late.
This evening, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100.000 times (including the 0 ties), and McCain wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. If the election had been held this evening, Obama would have had a near-100.0% probability of winning.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Today is the first day of the rest of our permanent Democratic majority.
Vote.
Mat 7:15 Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.
Beware of false prophets
I agree. We’ve been governed by “ravening wolves” at the federal level for the last 8 years.
And that’s going to change pretty quick here.
The people are going to reject this:
http://tinyurl.com/ypfauz
By 5:00 p.m. PST, the polls will have closed in most of the important battleground states: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, N. Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. If Obama carries even half of them, it’s all over for McCain.
Gregoire’s biggest concern might be that a significant number of potential voters in King County might skip the election if they find out that Obama’s already been declared the winner before they even get off from work. She needs those Obama voters to ensure her win against Rossi.
3 Is that comment directed at “John 425”?
5 Agreed. This election is so different in a number of important ways from any other that all the media’s data collection and predictive models may well turn out not to be worth a tinker’s damn. So….don’t take anything for granted.
@6 No he was directing that at CheechChong 4:20.