| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday.
There were 21 new polls from 17 states released today. In addition, with one week to the election, today is the day that the “current poll window” is scheduled to change from 10 days to 7 days. Both polls and the polling window affect today’s results.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Darryl–
Have you considered factoring in the 2004 Final Polls vs. Actual Results?
In 2004, Polls & Exit Polls generally gave Kerry a 3% lead…yet Kerry lost by 2.5%.
How confident are you these polls have adequately factored in the cause of their discrepancies?
Obviously in America we count votes and do not rely on polls to choose our President.
This Election is very interesting to try & project. Obama on the defensive and McCain making gains in the homestretch. Yet we have millions of Americans who have voted early…which favors Obama.
I do not have much faith in these polls because of their poor past track record vs. actual results. I think part of it is that many Conservatives quietly go about their business & are less likely to share their opinions with pollsters vs. the Obama Lunatics who drank the Kool-Aid and cannot STFU!
Darryl–
Just for yucks, can you show how the map changes if actual results vary to McCain’s benefit by 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% & 5%??
Would be interesting.
Another wagering opportunity–how long after 8 PM PDT will it be when it’s called for Obama?
Let’s say, for the heck of it, that when 8 PM hits he’s already been called the winner in Virginia, NC, Ohio, Florida, Indianan, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri, and of course all of the eastern Kerry 2004 states. How long will it be?
1&2 Cyn
For some reason you obsess about the national polling margin. Darryl’s analysis is state-by-state, which in case you aren’t thinking too hard about it (my guess) is the way the electoral votes are apportioned. It has, in fact, nothing at all to do with national polling margin. Your assumptions are beside the point, and your conclusions are doubly so.
For example, John Kerry did not lose the presidency by 2.5%, he lost by 110,000 votes in Ohio.
1 Cyn
That’s a hoot. Sure he is.
That’s like saying that the Phillies are “on the defensive” because they’re only two games ahead of the Rays.
Cynical, if you really believe that McCain is going to win, please explain how he can be behind in polling (in very steady, extraordinarily consistent polling), and still win in CO, FL, IN, IA, NV, NM, NC, OH, and VA, all of which he would have to win to become president.
How’s he gonna do it?
The Republican scare campaign of calling McCain a terrorist, socialist, etc. are giving him a small increase in the national poll count, but not affecting the state-by-state count at all.
I can only guss at the reason: perhaps it is working to push some Republicans in already red states? One of McCain’s problems has always been that the exteme right-wing Republican base has never been real happy with him, and as of last spring and early summer many were threatening to sit out the election in a fit of petulance. Palin’s nomination brought some of them back, but turned away other uncommitteds in greater numbers. McCain’s current scare tactics (“maybe you don’t like me, but the other guy’s much worse”) seem to have the same affect. In other words, he’s been too busy shoring up (and re-shoring) his right-wing base he hasn’t been able to shift towards the center where he needs to be to win a national election.
Yesterday I’ve heard that they are conducting a particularly mean negative campaign (cheap stuff like mailings, posters) in a state which the McCain campaign wrote off weeks ago. It’s hard to imagine what they had in mind. Are they simply market testing ad campaigns? Or using it as a place to throw away stuff already printed but found to be inneffective in the swing states? Or is it a sop to the down-ticket, which must be really discouraged that the national efforts are being focused on only three or four states, and local Republican candidates in most other races are left on their own, twisting slowly in the end.
In effect, the McCain campaign is preaching to the choir, converting a few people who would never vote for Obama anyway in states which were already solidly for McCain anyway, even though it does nothing for them to gain in the national electoral count.
And what’s up with that radio ad on behalf of McDermit’s opponant I heard this morning? He’s expecting to get McDermit’s seat by calling for victory in Iraq? If McDermit’s opponant had any brains, he’d be yelling at somebody for wasting money on that ad, that type of campaign isn’t going to win in Seattle.
Gee, Cynical, exit polling being accurate within 1% of actual vote count for every election for about half a century, and then ONLY in 2004, and ONLY in a handful of swing states (principally Ohio), is there a discrepency between the exit polls anc the actual vote count?
And then you coincidently find multiple incidences of actual attempts to influence the vote count in those same states? Example of Ohio: purging voter rolls in targeted precincts through illegal caging campaigns, refusal to issue or count provisional ballots, shortages of voting booths in Democratic precincts, etc.?
I suspect that your attempt to dismiss the exit polls in the 2004 election, like the current Republican campaign against ACORN, merely an attempt to muddy the waters in advance of a much broader and more sophisticated attempt to steal this election.
8 rhp
The McCain campaign doing something that you could call “sophisiticated?” I’ll need more convincing.
re 1: I have more faith in the polls than in the results of the 2004 election. How can you turn a blind eye to the fact that your party is a party of liars and cheaters?
Apparently, you don’t. You approve.
Just like GWB approves of dictatorship, “…as long as I’m the dictator.”
Mr Cynical,
“Have you considered factoring in the 2004 Final Polls vs. Actual Results?”
I’ve designed these analyses to be as assumption-free as possible. The results come straight out of the state head-to-head poll results. So, no, I haven’t considered that.
“In 2004, Polls & Exit Polls generally gave Kerry a 3% lead…yet Kerry lost by 2.5%.”
There is a long story behind the 04 exit polls, but those are irrelevant. The 2004 national polls did not give Kerry a +3% margin. Real Clear Politics’ average of national polls from 10/27/04 to 11/1/04 gave Bush a +1.5% margin.
Likewise, the state by state polling turned out to be pretty damn accurate at the sites I was watching in 04. Have you seen an analysis suggesting otherwise?
“This Election is very interesting to try & project.”
Right…but keep in mind that I am not projecting into the future. The results I give are the “current score” or “what would happen if the election happened now.” Think of these results as the score in a football gave with five minutes left on the clock.
“Just for yucks, can you show how the map changes if actual results vary to McCain’s benefit by 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% & 5%??”
I’ll consider this, but right now I have my hands full just collecting polls, doing the analyses, and getting results posted by midnight.
[Deleted]
@1 Cynical, after you correct the official tallies for the votes that were suppressed, switched inside the Diebold and ES&S touchscreen machines, or rerouted from the Ohio SoS’s tabulation computers to private computers in Tennessee for further processing and then routed back to the Ohio SoS, the polls were right. The GOP stole at least 200,000 votes in Ohio, in addition to Kerry votes that weren’t cast because of tactics ranging from locking voting machines in warehouses to polling place challenges that forced people in Democratic precincts to wait from 6 to 10 hours to vote. Republicans can’t win an honest election and they know it, because the majority of people would never vote for a party whose policies serve the interests of a tiny elite at the expense of everyone else. That’s why the GOP spends millions of dollars on election tampering.
@2 What for? Are you the kind of guy who likes to read books about what your life would be like if Hitler had won the war? Even the McCain camp thinks they’ve lost — don’t you ever read a newspaper?
28 years ago yesterday, in a late-in-the-game debate, Ronald Reagan famously asked, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
@3 I think the MSM will be slow at calling it out of an abundance of caution. However, by the time Washington’s polls close at 8PM, it’ll already be 11PM on the east coast and by then you’ll have a pretty good picture of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. I won’t get off my pollworker duties until 9PM to 9:30PM and very likely by then Obama will be the de facto, if not declared, president-elect even if the media hasn’t acknowledged it yet.
So rhp6033:
ACORN –
* We now know Obama trained ACORN’s Chicago members in leadership seminars.
* We now know Obama sat on boards that funneled money to ACORN.
* We now know Obama and a team of Chicago attorneys won an ACORN 1995 suit forcing the state of Illinois to implement the federal “motor-voter” bill.
When someone points out ACORN’s tactics – they admit to them.
The stunning thing about this Atlas and Dreier “rebuttal” is that it confirms nearly everything Stern says. “Stern accurately outlines Acorn’s agenda” – Atlas and Dreier.
Joe Biden said the campaign didn’t give to ACORN. Well the lie is over $800K went there. Orlando station calls Biden on it. Obama campaign claims fowl and then cuts them off. Fascism baby. Now we see their registration “names”. Yessiree.
Exit Polls – You forgot NJ, PA, VA exit polls pal. Look it up.
Now we see Obama is saying $200,000 in his over the weekend ads for “single” people. But you all forget when he met Joe the plumber who is a single father he told him $250,000. Next we hear Biden on the campaign trail say $150,000 is the “your rich limit”. So what “rich” value is it? Pretty soon yelling loser boy and his SEIU wife will be considered rich by Obama and then when they see their taxes increase Puddy told ya so!
The last but not least, if this “groundswell” for Obama is so reeeeeeeeeeeal, why is ACORN rushing out to “register” Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, and the Dallas Cowboys Offensive Linemen to vote in multiple cities?
Alst but not least is French President Nikolas Sarkozy who said Obama is naive.
” French President Nicolas Sarkozy is very critical of U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama’s positions on Iran, according to reports that have reached Israel’s government.
Sarkozy has made his criticisms only in closed forums in France. But according to a senior Israeli government source, the reports reaching Israel indicate that Sarkozy views the Democratic candidate’s stance on Iran as “utterly immature” and comprised of “formulations empty of all content.”
Obama visited Paris in July, and the Iranian issue was at the heart of his meeting with Sarkozy. At a joint press conference afterward, Obama urged Iran to accept the West’s proposal on its nuclear program, saying that Iran was creating a serious situation that endangered both Israel and the West. According to the reports reaching Israel, Sarkozy told Obama at that meeting that if the new American president elected in November changed his country’s policy toward Iran, that would be “very problematic.””
Looks like all that personal information on Joe the Plumber was gotten from Ohio government computers. Hmmm…
Helen Jones-Kelly, director of the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services – Obama jockstrap. Amazing…
Butt, libtards there is more illegal actions on Joe The Plumber:
Julie McConnell is probably an Obama jockstrap too.
@7 “perhaps it is working to push some Republicans in already red states”
Bingo! Prominent Republicans are calling on McCain to use this final week to campaign in states where GOP senators are endangered to shore up their prospects. In other words, they’ve written him off and are focusing on saving a GOP 41-seat plurality in the Senate. But the GOP’s famous unity and internal discipline have given way to bickering and infighting, and the GOP will end up getting the table run against them.
that rotten-egg smell is the smoke coming out of the puddybitch’s ears as his brains fry.
poor pudddybitch and cyinidumbshit.. the repudiation of their vainglorious, greedy, bull-shit social, societal and economic system will be complete. st.ronnie is dead. lee atwater is dead. milton freidman is dead. their me first, me get mine, crypto-christo-fascism is dead.
just like in 1932, 1993 and now…Democrats are left to clean up the rethuglicant wreckage.
nice job fukkin’ this up you assholes.
@8 I, too, worry about the Repugs stealing this election, and there are already news reports of 8-hour lines at early-voting locations in Georgia, and various problems in other states (including vote-switching by electronic voting machines). However, it’s one thing to steal a close election by flipping one state (where your party controls the election apparatus), but a different thing altogether when the race isn’t close and you have to steal half a dozen big states. Ohio’s secretary of state is now a Democrat, making that state less vulnerable (although not immune) to the tampering that occurred in 2004.
If McCain emerges the winner, despite every poll (including Fox’s) showing Obama easily winning this election, the first thing you’ll hear is “the polls were wrong.” Don’t believe it. Then, they’ll trot out the “Bradley Effect.” Don’t believe that, either. Studies have shown there is no Bradley Effect and never has been, not even in the election after which it is named. The rightwing-controlled media are talking about the “Bradley Effect” is because it’s the perfect cover for stealing the election. And that’s its function — to mask election tampering on a massive scale in numerous states, which is what it will take to steal this election.
But I’m not sure the GOP operatives behind the theft of the 2000 and 2004 elections want to steal this one. They don’t like McCain all that much, and his defeat will give them an opportunity to remake the Republican Party in their own image, which might include boosting Palin to the forefront of 2012 contenders. (As you know, the campaign for the 2012 GOP nomination will begin on Nov. 5.) And they have another problem — this time, unlike 2000 and 2004, Democrats control the House, which would ultimately decide a disputed election. I’m not saying we should trust Democratic congressmen to protect the country from another GOP theft of a presidential election — I have no faith in them at all. But prospects of riots in the streets might force them to do the right thing.
But, as I said above, I don’t think it’ll come to that. I think the neocons are willing to throw McCain under the bus and give up the White House for 4 years to rebuilt their coalition. They probably figure the severity of the country’s problems will maul Obama so badly they can come back in 2012 stronger than ever, and get Palin or some other blood-lusting red-meat neocon in there. In fact, she’s ideal for their purpose because her ignorance and inexperience makes her dependent on handlers so they could easily manipulate a President Palin — which is exactly the kind of president they want. The hard-right insiders won’t hand the party over to Romney if they can help it.
Cynical’s getting punch-drunk from the drubbing his side’s taking. First he sees Ayers under every bed and he even sees Ayers on a tape no-one but a reporter at the L.A. Times has seen that’s really focused on Rashid Khalidi.
oooh, but don’t, don’t whatever you do say Khalidi’s name use Ayer’s name instead because it’s come out that John McSame gave money to Khalidi.
That’s right. JOHN MCSAME HAS FUNDED GLOBAL “TERROR”.
This guilt-by-association stuff – DON’T YOU LOVE IT?
they’ve really got no where to hide this time.
ALL the lies…ALL the corruption…ALL the blatant illegalities…
…and just wait till c+augustus is out of offfice and we can start in on him and richard the terrible
@17 Yeah, puddy, I read about that too. I think they should hunt down the miscreant and throw his ass in jail. We can’t have citizens snooping on the government, can we now? That might lead to anarchy. But the canary is out of the cage and we now know McCain’s stage-prop plumber isn’t a plumber, doesn’t pay his taxes, doesn’t have a driver’s license, and isn’t an independent. Oh, and he isn’t a voter, either. Some guy named Sam Worzelbacher is registered at his address, and no such person exists. Given how strenuously GOP operatives are trying to crack down on Ohio’s voter-roll discrepancies–they still haven’t given up trying to purge 200,000 people even after losing in the Supreme Court, and have successfully persuaded Bush to personally intervene by siccing Attorney General Mukasey on Ohio Secretary of State Brunner–they’ll either have to challenge Joe The Plumber’s ballot or be exposed for the manipulative partisans and hypocrites they actually are.
6. Daddy Love spews:
I never said he was going to win. I just feel a lot of the polling, historically, has proven to be waaaaaay off.
I offer up Pennsylvania in 2004.
Polls showed Kerry winning by 13-16 points…yet he only won by a couple points.
Other States showed big differences.
My question for Darryl was meant to be an exercise if State-by-State polls were off by 1-5%….how would this change the results.
12. Mr. Cynical spews:
The Idiot Steve (formerly known as ByeByeGOP) is at it again.
You banned ByeBye and he came back as an even more worthless troll called Steve.
Steve’s ongoing vulgarity & imposter BS is actually ruining Goldy’s Blog.
Idiot Steve (formerly known as ByeByeGOP) is the very first LEFTIST PINHEADED KLOWN troll to ruin a LEFTIST BLOG!!!
Keep up the bad work Steve (formerly known as ByeByeGOP). I’m sure most Democrats cringe at your vulgar, useless ramblings.
@18 Let me ask you something, puddy … even though Joe the Plumber was exposed as a liar and scofflaw by illegal means, that doesn’t change the fact he’s a liar and scofflaw … so why are you defending him?
Of course, the main point here is that everything about Joe-the-Plumber-as-stage-prop is fake and McCain pulled a fast one by using this guy to make a point, and the secondary point to be made is that McCain’s campaign was extremely sloppy in not checking this guy out first, which suggests he would run a sloppy administration (a la Bush) if he became president.
[Deleted]
[Deleted]
[Deleted]
BULLSHITTIUM Alert! BULLSHITTIUM Alert! BULLSHITTIUM Alert! BULLSHITTIUM Alert!
You can’t have partisan hacks going into computer systems to send illegally gotten personal information and sending that to campaigns Pelletizer. But wait… you said once “Our crooks are better than your crooks”. Being crooked is bad no matter who does it. So these two libtards see the negative affect (influence – for yelling loser boy) on the Obama polling numbers in Ohio so they use gestapo tactics and raid guvmint computers for personal information and share it with their Obama the Messiah acolytes! Now the effect (result – yelling loser boy) they tried to induce was to besmirch Sam’s reputation. Now they are caught and naturally the Obama Campaign claims the high road, but they and the libtard MSM buds used the information negatively against Sam.
Yesiree Pelletizer overlooks crookedness when it comes to promoting the “Messiah”.
How can Mr. Cynical throw the lever for a guy who has funded Palestinian terror?
Money talks right?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Darryl–
Rasmussen also reports Obama leads 54-45 re: voters that have already voted. I think beyond that, the case can be made that Obama has always lack the strong support needed to close the deal…in other words, he still has a lot of soft support to try & convince.
I felt the Rasmussen Poll would ultimately show Obama winning by about 3 points nationally. I also mentioned I felt if it got down to 1 point, it was POSSIBLE Obama could win the National Popular Vote and Lose the Election…a scenario which would make the Leftists go absolutely beserk! But it’s not likely.
Darryl, I understand your state-by-state emphasis as that is all that really matters. The problem is a lot of these local state polls are historically somewhat unreliable.
Keep digging Darryl.
Well-done.
Then we have Jeff Bingamon Donkey Senator from NM who wants to implement the Fairness Doctrine – NAZI Gestapo tactics to quell the knowledge of these two Ohio Obama operatives. Yessiree, you have ignant fools like RudeASS! who shout shit all over this thread with his commentary above.
Steve (formerly known as ByeBye and an embarrassment to the Left):
Banned again?
What will be your next re-incarnation?
Don’t you get it Steve (formerly ByeBye)??
You are ruining your own ideology’s Blog!
Goldy, I appreciate you trying to keep some level of decorum to promote honest debate and discussion.
Steve (formerly ByeBye) somehow thinks an interesting Blog is one dominated by his chronic vulgarity and goat fornication.
Are any of you KLOWNS glad Steve is toasted??
31 – Joe (or Sam) the plumber is a fraud Stupes. You gullible wingnuts buy any kind of crap.
Pelletizer – you make all these claims about Sam. How did you get this information unless these government computers were incorrectly used. Sam has gone on TV shows and talked about how he uses his bosses license to plumb. In Ohio that’s legal.
Sounds to me the perfect person for an ACORN “volunteer” to register, Pelletizer.
How can he be a MCCain plant when Obama walked down his street and stopped to talk to him? What a moron you are Pelletizer.
Mr Cynical – I think the faker is the 23rd Headless Lucy sock puppet.
Goldy et. al. know who it is.
Darryl @ 11: I would suggest that there isn’t five minutes left to go in this game. This election campaign began well over two years ago, and we are in the final week.
In football terms, we are well under the two-minute mark, and McCain is down by more than one score. He has to score a touchdown, recover an on-side kick, get it into field goal territory, and successfully make the kick to win this game. He can’t make short passes to the sidelines to stop the clock, and he’s out of time-outs, and his running game hasn’t worked all day. His last trick play at the beginning of the fourth quarter was a reverse to Sarah Palin, but that one ended up in a loss of yardage.
McCain’s got about one or two plays left, and he’s got to throw a Hail Mary on each one. He could possibly still pull it out, but these are the kind of odds he’s working against.
Mr Cynical – Thanks for bringing up PA as an exit poll failing. Being my home and native land
Go Phillies!
But Mr Cynical – Scott Rasmussen is a Republican Pollster (operative) and can’t be trusted – yelling loser boy.
HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR
40. Puddybud spews:
I really like the Phillies too. But I’m forced to pull for Tampa Bay ONLY because it will make Goldy sad if the Rays win.
A sad Goldy makes for a happy Conservative.
Funny how that works.
Cynical, I am conservative and pulling for the Phillies. Not everyone from Philly became polluted in their mindset.
Pelletizer: Why is it when people want to know about a candidate’s undergraduate or graduate experiences those are off limits but Obama operatives will illegally divulge information about average Joe citizen from guvmint computers in a heartbeat?
Of course Pelletizer is for these jack-booted goosestepping Nazi state Gestapo tactics as long as his candidate gets elected.
yessiree. The Prosecution Rests!
This just posted at Rasmussen.
Obviously, the McCain strategy of attacking O-blah-blah on his everchanging tax plan specifics and O-blah-blah’s Marxist/Socialist Agenda is having some impact.
Probably too little, too late.
McCain should have had the Marxist/Socialist issue front & center the whole campaign. McCain fell into the “afraid to attack a black guy out of fear of being called a racist” morase….and it may have cost him the election.
McCain Trusted More on Taxes and Economy
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Maybe we’ll be singing this as our new anthem
http://www.youtube.com/v/l46t_nrySg4
mccain’s a maverick but he was afraid of being labeled? Oh, yeah, that’s showing a spine.
Obama is not a Marxist, he’s a realist who is going to have to find a way to pay for your Republican invasions and mismanagement.
Be patriotic, pay your taxes.
My sister called me from Pennsylvania. Seems that my nephew’s wife, who got laid off from her job last month, found another one and started this week.
But she wanted my opinion on whether her new employer was acting legally.
Most of the blue collar employees working there are either black or hispanic. The office staff is overwhelmingly white.
The employer announced that on Tuesday, Nov. 4th, all the blue collar staff will be required to attend a mandatory training session on “Safety in the Workplace” to be held at an off-site location, a little more than an hour away from the workplace. The plant operations will close down, and buses will pick up the employees promptly at 7:00 a.m. at the company parking lot. The company will provide lunch and dinner, after which they will return them to the company parking lot, ETA about 8:00 p.m.
Overtime will be paid (to the extent worker’s hours exceed of 40 hours for the entire week), but attendance is mandatory. Anyone who is absent will have to present a doctor’s excuse, with permission to the company to examine copies of the employee’s medical records to determine whether the employee was really incapable of attending. Within the office, the managers are saying that they may reduce the hours by the end of that week so that workers are sent home at lunchtime on Friday, to keep them from paying overtime rates for the training session on Tuesday.
Only a handfull of management will also attend, the office staff is not required to attend.
By coincidence (?), it appears that the polling stations in Pennsylvania open at 7:00 a.m. and close at 8:00 p.m. I don’t know the rules about early voting or absentee ballots in PA.
My sister asked that I not disclose the name of the employer, because my nephew’s wife really needs this job, and is afraid of losing it if she complains.
By the way, my sister, her husband, my nephew, and his wife are all Republicans. But this one has thrown them for a loop.
In the meantime, a famous name in professional sports is contemplating entering politics:
Source: Hail to the Chuck
rhp spews:
How in the world is some Pennsylvania employer going to tie your sister to HORSESASS.ORG in bumf*ck Seattle??
Seems like you are overworrying…or perhaps stretching the truth a bit??
Charles Barkley is the best you’ve got? Have you ever heard the Chuckster ramble on with his racist comments?
He is unelectable except in his own mind.
Ranching in Montana is such easy work. It allows Cynical the time to post morning to night, day in, day out, on a Western Washington political blog. The very easy work of ranching in Montana also allows Cynical the time to have lunch at his favorite little cafe in Lacey, which is quite coincidently just a short hop from the BIAW headquarters in Olympia.
Cynical @ 52: I thought it was pretty funny, too. But in a way, he has a point – how much worse could he make Alabama?
Oh, wait, I think I heard some people say something similar when Bush was elected in 2000. “How much damage could he do? Besides, he has Cheney to keep him in line”.
Never mind.
Mr Cynical @ 26
“Polls showed Kerry winning by 13-16 points…yet he only won by a couple points.”
No they didn’t. The last five polls in Pennsylvania, taken from 25-Oct to 1-Nov, gave:
That yields an unweighted average of 0.9% for Kerry. The actual results were 50.92% Kerry to 48.42% Bush, a difference of 2.5%. The difference is easily within the margin of error for the combined poll-based estimate.
RE: Darryl @ 44:
Note to Cynical: Darryl is referring to pre-election polls in 2004, not exit polls.
My discussions always revolved around exit polling in 2004. Darryl’s polls are a prediction (in 2004) of what would happen if the election had been held on the date of the poll. Exit polling asks about what just happened.
The margins of error are considerably smaller in exit polling.
rhp6033 and Darryl:
One of my favorite poll watching sites has a “this day in 2004” function, and at least according to it, PA was tied up at this point in the 2004 elections.
29 Oct 2004
Hope this helps.
49 – That’s sheer evil.