| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday.
There were 21 new polls from 17 states released today. In addition, with one week to the election, today is the day that the “current poll window” is scheduled to change from 10 days to 7 days. Both polls and the polling window affect today’s results.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
