| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 360 electoral votes | Mean of 178 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 370 to 168 electoral votes. In an election held yesterday, Obama would
have almost certainly won.
There were eight new polls in six states released today that weigh in on the score. The most influential are two West Virginia polls that hand the state back to McCain, and a new poll showing McCain leading by +1% in Ohio. As a result, McCain gains back some lost turf today.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all and, in a hypothetical election held today, receives (on average) 360 to McCain’s 178 electoral votes. Obama would still win an election held now with near certainty.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
Darryl–
I think you will see a bit more tightening…but certainly not enough for McCain to win. It has been interesting to see the ebbs & flows…and how many people are still very soft in their support for O-blah-blah. People are either very enthralled with him or strongly dislike him…..with a huge 17% wtill not quite sure. I think McCain will end up with the majority of that 17%…perhaps 9% to 8%. O-blah-blah’s financial warchest will certainly buy him the election.
I thought O-blah-blah was concerned about the negative impact of big money on elections?
You KLOWNS sure seem outraged that 13,000 construction industry job-creating, tax paying businesses have thrown big support to Rossi..not to mention his 53,000 individual donors.
I guess it’s easy to justify your guy taking the big dough.
Considering how batshit-insane the conservatives have become thus far, to what lengths will their rabid hatred extend when Barack Obama is elected presiden?
Barack Obama has effectively negated the effct of big money on elections. He has 600,000 donors whose average donation was $86, yet he raised $150 million in September alone. Along the way, he virtually halted all Democratic-side 527 activities.
He is unbribable. No one has a big enough pile of money to influence him. It is the victory of the small donor and of the people.
Poeple are upset about Rossi illegally raising funds for and illegally coordinating with so-caaled “indepenndent” political action groups, not about the number of his supporters. If Rossi has so many “supporters”, then he should do what Obama did and call off the independent expenditures.
@3: Thanks Daddy Love
Poor cynical doesn’t understand the difference between 600,000 small donors investing an average of $85 in the Obama campaign and one big political action group run by a bunch of far right wing hacks trying to buy a candidate (Rossi) and throw an election. the illegal collusion between the two makes most real Washington voters aware of the innate corruption in the Rossi campaign. Electing Rossi will lead to further corruption because Rossi can’t help himself – he will lie, cheat or steal to win.
Cynical – if you can’t figure out that difference then you are even dimmer than we thought.
Daddy Love spews:
DL–
You can count on Conservatives treated Obama with the same respect PROGRESSIVE ATHEIST PINHEADED KLOWNS showed President Bush & Republicans.
Do you really expect folks to treat Obama any differently??
That is the problem with vitrolic hatred…it becomes a mobius loop.
Obama supporters have done nothing to stop the hatred…in fact, it has never been greater. Look at the disrespect Palin has endured.
Are you surprised DL??
What are you going to say…Conservatives should bow down to Obama??
Ain’t gonna happen.
CNR–
Do you realize how much MONEY and TIME Unions have contrbuted to Gregoire?? And the Tribes?
C’mon…stop acting like the innocent victim.
Rossi is going to win.
So is Obama.
Will DL & the rest of you KLOWNS treat Governor Rossi with respect?? Hell no.
Yet you somehow feel Conservatives should cut Obama some slack and be nice to him and his Socialist Agenda??
Darryl–
I feel the bottom-line is McCain MUST win:
Indiana (likely)
Missouri (possible)
North Carolina (likely)
Ohio (possible)
Virginia (possible)
Florida (possible)
None of these is beyond the realm of possibility, right?
McCain’s problem is he must also win either
Colorado (unlikely) OR
Nevada & New Hampshire–McCain can possibly pull out Nevada..but NH is unlikely.
BTW, thanks for your hard work on this.
I realize you are dealing with the best current polling info you can find and let the numbers speak for themselves…not spinning data. You have also helped readers focus on the status of key battleground states which will decide the election. It’s hard for folks in Washington State to relate to what is going on in these battleground states because McCain has basically pulled out of Washington long ago to focus on these other states.
Things are really coming into focus..
It would take a major scandal in the next couple days for McCain to win….and even that is probably too little, too late.
When is the next Governor’s Race Poll due out??
Hopefully it isn’t Elway…pretty out to lunch.
Good job Darryl!
PS—
Hopefully my compliments to the Numbers Chef doesn’t make you feel all aglow and bursting with pride. I wouldn’t want that.
I’m assuming that these numbers don’t reflect Colin Powell’s endorsement?
Powell’s endorsement won’t mean a thing to the die-hard conservatives and/or racists who will vote for anybody other than Obama. But it SHOULD, and PROBABLY WILL, have an impact upon the few remaining undecideds, or those who are wavering. If the former chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff and Secretary of State under Bush reject’s McCain’s attempts to tie Obama to Ayers, etc., then why should the average voter?
Of course, the McCain campaign is already trying to dismiss the endorsement by saying that McCain has the endorsment of several other present and former (Republican) Secty’s of State. And wingnut medial (right-wing talk-show hosts and Fox News commentators are trying to shrug it off because – “…If you haven’t noticed, he’s BLACK…”. But that’s just whistling through the graveyard. You KNOW that if Powell had come out for McCain, they would have him on the campaign trail trumping up his endorsement.
The other factor about this endorsement which makes me wonder is the information I’ve reported earlier, that quite a few in the Pentagon are quitely praying that McCain not win this election. They’ve had to work with him for years, and they know what (a) he thinks he knows a lot more about high-level military strategy and logistics than he currently knows, and (b) he’s awfully quick to recommend a military response to what is essentially a diplomatic or other problem, and (c) he’s got a childish tendency to try to belittle high-ranking officers who don’t kowtow to him. If you don’t support his ideas 100%, he will go out of his way to ruin your career.
rhp spews:
Wow, such a highly substantiate report from you! No names. No nothing. Just your vivid imagination repeating garbage you pick up for Daily Kos and keep floating around.
Cynical @ 9: Actually, my source is a friend who recently completed a tour of duty in the Pentagon. As a “mere captain”, he laughed that his main job was to hold the general’s hat. But much like a waiter at a restaurant, that made him a bit invisible, he got an opportunity to hear a lot of inside chatter. He certainly wouldn’t discuss anything classified, but he could talk about his general impressions of the people there.
By the way, he’s a lifelong Republican, and he’s torn between whether to vote for Obama or not vote at all. He won’t vote for McCain.