Election contest shocker: GOP analysis proves Stefan voted for Gregoire!

The Seattle P-I reported yesterday that according to a GOP statistical analysis, Dino Rossi won by about 100 votes, when accounting for ballots cast by felons, dead voters and non-citizens. How convenient.

How very, very convenient.

Indeed, to achieve this stunning reversal of fortune, several extremely convenient events would have to take place. First, the Republicans would have to prove that the number of illegal votes is anywhere near the thousand-ish they have alleged (not likely considering their track record thus far.) Second, the court would have to ignore offsetting errors from pro-Rossi counties… like the 1793 provisional ballots that were improperly counted without matching signatures. Third, the court would have to accept a statistical analysis. And fourth, the court would have to adopt the rather unscientific methodology the Republicans are proposing for their analysis.

As the P-I explains, Republicans are relying on a precinct level analysis to pad Rossi’s numbers.

For example, if Gregoire received 60 percent of a vote in Precinct A and Rossi 40 percent, and there were 100 improper votes from that precinct, Gregoire’s total would be reduced by 60 votes and Rossi’s by 40.

In most cases, the number of improper votes traceable to a single precinct is very small — often, as few as one. In that case, using the same percentages, Gregoire would lose 0.6 votes and Rossi 0.4.

The problem is, a single illegal vote per precinct is not a statistically significant sample. This results in what statisticians call an “ecological fallacy,” a logical flaw whereby aggregate statistics collected for a group are used to make inferences about an individual member.

For example, Democrats have argued that the majority of felons are male, and men tend to disproportionately favor Republicans, thus complicating any statistical analysis of the felon vote. One could also argue that felons tend to be, um… felons, and as such, would be less likely to vote for the state’s leading law enforcement officer.

Republicans, on the other hand, argue that such a demographic analysis would be absurd… that the only accurate means of deducing a voter’s behavior is to simply look at the totals for his precinct. But the absurdity of the Republican’s favored methodology can be clearly illustrated by using it to infer the ballot of a single voter: Stefan Sharkansky. If right-wing poster-blogger Stefan were an illegal voter casting a ballot in his heavily Democratic Greenlake precinct, the Republican analysis would subtract .78 votes from Gregoire, and only .19 votes from Rossi.

Of course, Stefan is not your typical Greenlake voter… but then, neither is a felon. And that’s exactly the point. The fact that Stefan is an angry, selfish, right-wing, extremist prick a Republican, is a helluva lot more predictive of his voting behavior than his precinct.

Thus any court judicially active enough to read statistical analysis into a contest statute that clearly doesn’t envision it, would be faced with a quandary: if statistical analysis is to be used to determine the winner of this election… which statistics should be analyzed?

No court is going to put itself into that kind of a quandary.

Comments

  1. 1

    Jeff B. spews:

    Lighten up Goldy. You might want to Drink Liberally a little early this week to calm down and control the ad hominem.

  2. 2

    zapporo spews:

    Goldys Waking Thoughts

    Im a wishin I was the Shark.
    He is so cool.
    If I could only be like him.
    Ahhhhh. That felt good. Really good.
    I wish I had more hair, except in my ears.
    I’ll help steal the votes because
    I’m a liberal fascist and I have no conscience.
    Pennsylvania cheese is the best.
    Maybe I can find one more way to stuff the F word into my column.
    Or slam Mr. Sharky.
    Deep down inside I really do like Rossi.
    NO! DAMN IT! I DID NOT THINK THAT!
    But I really do like Rossi.
    NO! DAMN IT! I DID NOT THINK THAT!
    My fruitloops are soggy.
    I really do wish I was the shark…..

  3. 3

    Danw spews:

    Zap.
    If Goldy was like shark, you wouldn’t be here. Unless your only goal was to shut down dissenting thought (like on SP) It is amazing that as an American that is what your goal is. The main difference between the two is Goldy adds humor and insightful thought to his blog (to which you add neither) and Sharkansky posts innuendo, and other made up crap, to try to make his windmill tilting case. Then if someone disagrees, bans them.
    Political discussion is the way we find out other points of view on different subjects. and determine what the prevailing thought is. So if you can’t handle the truth, just go back to your circle jerk over on SP and see if you can get the Missourri compromise back on the books.

    Trolls are Droll and rarely bring insight.
    Then come when depressed to just pick a fight.
    instead of thought and reason do they bring.
    Insults of the writer is all they can sing.

    To listen to them is never a treat.
    they goosestep in line to the sharks drumbeat.
    facts they ignore, cause they don’t help their case.
    So bring some or shut up, my time you do waste.

    So thank you Goldy for taking the time.
    A little laughter and thought and maybe a rhyme.
    But to those of you who think it brings sorrow.
    Fuck off and die, especially Zapporo

  4. 4

    jpgee spews:

    Danw @ 3 that’s telling it like it is….LMAO@uSP and his holy trolls……moles…….they are kind of like a wind up doll, no thoughts, no insight, just constant noise and their own version of …….well……..of nothing…..

  5. 5

    jpgee spews:

    the thing I cannot understand is that once every 5th full moon zap actually says somehting semi intelligent……or maybe that is when the let him sniff that ‘puff of white smoke’ in the Vatican….

  6. 6

    zapporo spews:

    Dan,

    That’s a big stick.
    How can you even sit down.
    There are surgical extraction procedures that can help you with that.
    (Get a life)

  7. 7

    Pierre Drinkingwater spews:

    Great analysis Goldy. If the best they can come up with is a 100 margin assuming ALL pro-republican things (and not allowing similar pro-democrat things elsewhere), this is open and shut.

    There is no proof. Governor Gregoire’s job is safe for her entire term. Let the court decide quickly (as well as the appeal) so the republicans can put this sideshow to rest and allow the governing of the state to continue as it has.

  8. 8

    Danw spews:

    Zapporo’s thoughts
    Hello; it’s been 15 years, somebody pull my feeding tube.

    Catch on loser, we have actually had some intelligent conservatives on here lately, (no, not you Cynical). Even though we may disagree, the debate has been good. Thanks for joining BF and others.

  9. 11

    Jeffw (Apollo) spews:

    Zap @ 2

    Liberal Fascist???? Honestly, what is that? That’s an oxymoron if i’ve ever heard one before. Conservative Communist….no that doesn’t make sense either.

    And about the Gubernatorial race…

    Let it go please. Neither candidate had a clear majority in this race, and we just need to settle. Politics and government are about debating issues and problems in our society, but when we start debating the politics more then the issues, we get into trouble. Neither candidate was going to be a popular governor. The divide is too wide, but debating this isn’t going to go anywhere. Instead of trying to pull a Gray Davis on us, Republicans, why don’t you try working WITH the democrats to try and acheive what you want. Hell, the democrats have to do it in the federal system.

  10. 12

    Goldy spews:

    Jeff B @1, zaporro @2,

    So can I infer from the lack of substance in your comments, that you don’t refute my analysis… you merely dislike the conclusion?

    Danw @3,

    Wanna buy a rhyming dictionary?

  11. 13

    spews:

    I personally hope that Fraudoire gets fired and Rossi becomes Governor. Or better still, with John Stewart on the mind, a Governor Marummy.

    Just imagine: OPERATING KING FREEDOM – invading a third world county w/ a piss-poor election system. SWEET!!!

    Or “COPS” with our beloved SecDef chasing down felon voters.

    Or RE-VOTE campaigns everywhere…

    Yeah, well just remember things COULD be worse for you liberals :-).

    Brought to you by MARY LANE FOR U.S. SENATE (R for Rosy)
    (She won’t be a puppet of the OTHER Washington’s mandarins!)

    (This is intended to be satire)

  12. 15

    VRWC spews:

    Calling Gregoire “the state’s leading law enforcement officeer” is a stretch to say the least. Maybe the state’s leading procrastinator, imbecile, incempetent etc. After having cost the state over $10 million because she failed to file court papers on time and then costing another $200,000 when she tried to blame an underling and was sued, the only title I would give her is the walking disaster. Oh, and her stunt to steal the election also cost the state $700,000. But that is all chump change to rich liberals isn’t it?

  13. 16

    G Davis spews:

    *Neither candidate had a clear majority in this race, and we just need to settle.*

    Hear, hear and thank you Jeffw @ 11.

    Are there any Dino backers here who could kindly explain to me (civilly as possible please) how having a switch in the Governer’s chair would improve any situation currently facing our dear state?

    If not, can we please give this dead horse a rest?

  14. 17

    Danw spews:

    Goldy;
    I had one on my computer, but it slowed everything down, must have been writen on a Mac.
    The rest I give to Poetic License….you rhyme with Zapporo, with out a Japanese city involved.

  15. 18

    Jon spews:

    Jeffw @ 11: “…why don’t you try working WITH the democrats to try and acheive what you want. Hell, the democrats have to do it in the federal system.”

    Two things: I agree with the first part, compromise is not a dirty word, but the R’s in this state are acting just like the D’s in Congress, where obstructionism is the name of the game.

  16. 19

    Mark spews:

    Goldy,

    I think you’re actually making a point in FAVOR of throwing out the election results. With all of the questions and analyses, it is impossible to CLEARLY know who won the election. Unless, of course, you take a view like “possession is 9/10ths of the law,” in which case you’d have to denounce all lefty remarks about Bush’s election is 2004 and 2000.

    I would add one other means of proportional analysis of the bad/illegal/mistaken votes. They were heavily in favor of Gregoire because everyone knows that Democrats are far more likely to cheat. ;)

  17. 20

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Goldy–
    Your analysis is cute…but irrelevant as usual.
    Once illegal ballots have been co-mingled with legitimate ballots, there is no way to physically identify them. However, the facts will show there are X number of illegal votes, fraudulent canvassing board reports in KingCo and a few other relevant issues.

    What Goldy is saying folks is that someone could stuff a ballotbox thru Accuvote with illegal votes and there is absolutely no recourse. Not too logical Goldy.

    So how do you remove illegal votes once they are comingled?
    You cannot physically do it. Perhaps we can have one of the many Seattle Elite New Agers suck on a pile of crystals and come up with the answer??? Perhaps Jazee Knight can intervene? Tarrot Cards?

    Goldy, there has to be some form of relief for illegal COMINGLED ballots.

  18. 21

    VR spews:

    If we agree that courts need proof then it isn’t possible to proportion votes based on gender, age, felony record or any other personal characteristic. Votes are secret, no one knows what percentage of any group votes which party and guessing based on the background of a candidate takes it even further away from anything proveable. IF you are going to proportion votes the only proveable statistics for splitting the votes would be those facts recorded in election records.. precinct would likely be the most useful proveable statistic.

  19. 22

    Wayne spews:

    VRWC

    Do you really think it was Gregoire personally who missed the filing deadline? You make it sound like it was her responsibility to prepare and file court pleading, which is absurd. I am quite sure the trial attorneys who missed the filing deadline did not even report directly to her. I don’t particularly like her, and viewed her merely as the better of two bad choices, but you can’t blame her for missing a filing deadline. If you want to blame her for the department’s response to the mistake, fine. That’s legitimate criticism.

  20. 23

    Wayne spews:

    Mr. C

    The only evidence to date is that there were improperly processed ballots. That does not make them illegal. If you think otherwise, I’d be interested in the basis of that belief. And because Chris Vance, or Shark, says so, does not count. Until you have actual proof that the ballots were “stuffed” as opposed to votes from legitimate voters that were improperly processed or accounted for, you can’t show the votes were illegal. And Rossi has the burden of proof, whether you want to ignore that fact or not.

  21. 24

    Mr. Cynical is an angry, selfish, right wing, extremist BIAW lackey spews:

    I can put Gregoire 1,000 ahead if you let me monkey with the numbers a little.

  22. 25

    VRWC is an angry, selfish, right wing, extremist, sexually repressed GOP shill spews:

    Amount Gregoire recovered for state in tobacco lawsuit = $4,500,000,000.00

    Deduct $10,000,000.00 for missed deadline
    Deduct $200,000.00 for underling lawsuit
    Deduct $700,000.00 for recount

    Total deductions = $10,900,000.00

    $4,500,000,000.00 – $10,900,000.00 = $4,489,100,000.00 net gain

    Ya, I’d hire her to be my lawyer anytime.

  23. 26

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Don@24–
    “I can put Gregoire 1000 ahead if you let me monkey with the numbers a bit”.
    1) Don failed to earn more than $1000/yr. in the 10 years he tried to make it in the real world.
    2) Don spends too much time “spanking his monkey” to find the time or energy to monkey with numbers.
    3) Don is a hack Guv’mint atty. not a statistical analyst or actuary. He is all talk…no action.
    4) IT’S TOO LATE DON!!!! I told you idiots months ago to stop gabbing and start looking. You blew it!

  24. 27

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Goldy—
    I see by the voter registration list you have 2 roommates who voted. I’m a little suspicious by their names:
    1) Mike Hunt
    2) Heywood Jablowme

  25. 29

    Erik spews:

    I am still not conviced the gregoire is our Governor.

    What proof can you show me of this?

    Rossi is in the BIAW basement chain smoking.

    Gregoire is in the governor’s mansion.

  26. 30

    Don is an even bigger indoctrinated tool spews:

    Just to correct a few of you.

    “This isn’t the first time Gregoire has come under fire for errors and missed deadlines. In 2002, during a wrongful death lawsuit against the state, Gregoire’s office did not detect an error in jury instructions; the state was eventually hit with a $22.4 million judgment as a result of that lawsuit. And in 2000, an assistant attorney general missed a filing deadline in a personal injury lawsuit against the state that eventually cost taxpayers almost $19 million.”

  27. 32

    Wayne spews:

    VRMC and Bigger Tool than Don:

    Criticizing Gregoire for legal errors made by one of the many attorneys in her office is a little ridiculous, don’t you think? Otherwise, I expect you to flame McKenna (who I also voted for, as the lesser of two evils) every time the state loses a lawsuit or one of its trial attorneys screws something up. It will happen, you know. The state gets sued a lot and once in a while one of its lawyers makes a mistake.

  28. 33

    VRWC spews:

    “In the study of presidential and U.S. Senate races, Christopher Uggen of the University of Minnesota and Jeff Manza of Northwestern University say that felons would be more likely to vote Democratic than Republican, because they are more likely than other voters to come from such traditional Democratic constituencies as racial minorities and the poor.”

    http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....ons21.html

  29. 34

    VRWC spews:

    Wayne@32,
    First of all it wasn’t merely losing a case. It was losing a case because such a simple thing as not getting the papers filed on time. Had she filed the papers and lost anyway, that would be one thing. But she didn’t file the papers in time. She didn’t do her homework and got an “F”.

    But how many AGs try to blame it on an underling and then cause the state to have to pay out to the underling? Someone who has a history of blaming others for their mistakes is not a leader but a whiner. She is the head of the AG office she is to blame.

    And yes, if Rob McKenna does the same thing, he too deserves the same scorn. Do you have evidence he has done this?

  30. 35

    VRWC spews:

    @25,

    First of all, the settlement was largely secured by agressive AG’s from the other states. Gregoire had little to do with it other than a few photo ops.

    And let’s also make sure to calculate the fact that Democrats sold the tobacco settlement at pennies on the dollar for quick cash.

    The securitization of the settlement was at 30 cents on the dollar, so we only got 30% of that money.

    Subtract from that the money she is costing us in new taxes and it turns out that she is too costly for Washington State.

  31. 37

    VRWC spews:

    Davis@16,

    Yeah. If Dino was in office, instead of adding fat to the budget at the expense of the working stiff, we’d be trimming the fat. One word – VETO.

  32. 38

    Alan spews:

    VRWC @ 33 and 34

    Yes, the GOP tactic is to rely on studies and statistics from other states, but Washington has a much lower proportion of minorities in its felon population, so the comparisons aren’t valid and the Democratic attorneys will point this out tot he court. Given the tenuous of statistical analysis to begin with, I can’t visualize Judge Bridges giving much credence to those out-of-state statistics. So don’t pin your hopes on that.

    There are roughly 500 attorneys in the AG’s office, and Gregoire obviously didn’t supervise them personally. Costlier mistakes than this have happened in private law firms of comparable size. Her handling of the dismissal and subsequent lawsuit of the attorney who missed the filing deadline was less than admirable (that’s just my personal opinion), but then Rossi going back to work for his former boss after the later served a prison term for bilking widows and orphans was even less admirable, and tells us more about Rossi’s ethics than I wish I knew. This is a guy I do NOT want running our state government, and not just for political reasons, I think he suffers from a major deficiency in ethical judgment as well.

    The missed deadline involved the OK Boys Ranch lawsuit. The plaintiffs were three former residents of this group home who were sexually molested by staff, and eventually sued DSHS for negligent oversight of a facility it was responsible for licensing. The jury awarded them $16.8 million. As I recall, the state only intended to appeal the size of the award, as it didn’t really have a defense against liability. However, appeals courts are reluctant to tamper with jury awards absent clear abuse of the jury’s discretion, and there is no assurance at all the state would have obtained any reduction in the judgment on appeal. In fact, it’s unlikely. Yes, the appeal should have been filed, so the state could get the judgment award reviewed on the merits, but it’s inaccurate to say the state lost this case because of the attorney’s mistake. The state lost the case before the mistake happened, and even in the event of a successful appeal, would still have been on the hook for millions of dollars. A successful appeal might have knocked $5 million to $10 million off the amount of the award. That’s no small matter, but don’t forget that Gregoire was Attorney General for 12 years and her office handled tens of thousands of cases in that time — you’ve got to expect ONE or TWO screwups in that number of cases, because nobody on this earth is perfect.

    So, I think you’re blowing the whole thing out of proportion, and of course you’re conveniently overlooking the fact that Gregoire negotiated the largest settlement in world history and her legal skill in doing so brought BILLIONS OF DOLLARS back to this state. Incompetent? Not hardly — that’s just partisan bullshit.

  33. 39

    Wayne spews:

    VRWC

    You keep saying had “she” filed the papers, as though Gregoire had some personal responsibility to make sure filings are done on time. Yes it was simple and yes the attorney who was handling the case screwed up. But quit saying Gregoire missed the deadline like she was personally checking the calendar to make sure when filings are due. There are at least one or two layer of assistant attorneys general between her and the lawyers doing trial work.

    The mistake was definitely made by someone in her office. The office has a calendaring system to make sure things get filed on time. The trial attorneys handling the case were primarily responsible for making sure the appeal got filed.

    As I said before, Gregoire was only the best of a bad lot of candidates. You can certainly blame her at least in part for how the subsequent proceedings were handled. However, it is misleading at best to claim she personally missed the deadline.

  34. 40

    Wayne spews:

    VRWC

    I did not say Gregoire is not responsible for those under her. However, that is a different criticism than the one you have been leveling. I don’t believe Bush personally tortured Iraqis, (unless he makes them listen to his speeches) but he has responsibility for the policies involved.

  35. 41

    Proud Leftist spews:

    Appeals from judgments entered on jury verdicts rarely result in reversal–around 20% of the time. Even then, the remedy is often not entry of judgment for the appealing party, but a remand for a new trial. Accordingly, the odds of the State’s success on the unfiled appeal were remote. Continued accusations that Gregoire somehow cost the State the $18 million, or whatever it was, reflect a lack of understanding of the legal system. Ironically, given the lurid facts of the case, an appeal resulting in a new trial could have actually resulted in a larger verdict.

  36. 42

    spews:

    VWRC @ 33
    How many times are people going to refer to that flawed study? Did you notice they acknowledged they had NO DATA on felon voting patterns, and completely ignored the very real possibility that felons vote more like other felons, than they do like people who are of the same race or economic stratum?

  37. 43

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    To All–
    No one has answered how they would deal with someone ramming illegal ballots into ACCUVOTE. Now they are comingled.
    How do you seperate them???

  38. 44

    DonSux spews:

    TJ @ 42

    Not to worry TJ, the rubber hits the road in 1 month, and after Judge Bridges shitcans their talking points, they’ll have to shut up.

  39. 46

    Fred Hartwick spews:

    Governor Gregoire…now and for 3.5 more years! And guess what…things are getting done in Olympia! Halleujulah!

  40. 47

    LIBERAL Pets have been spayed, neutered, defanged & caged - ask defeated Daschle spews:

    Do you really think it was Gregoire personally who missed the filing deadline? You make it sound like it was her responsibility to prepare and file court pleading, which is absurd. I am quite sure the trial attorneys who missed the filing deadline did not even report directly to her. I don’t particularly like her, and viewed her merely as the better of two bad choices, but you can’t blame her for missing a filing deadline. If you want to blame her for the department’s response to the mistake, fine. That’s legitimate criticism. -Comment by Wayne— 4/21/05 @ 11:22 am

    Your pals Goldy et al. hold GW responsible for VOA going to China – if blame is good on side it’s equally good on the other kiddo.

  41. 48

    Wayne spews:

    Mr. C

    First you have to prove that illegal ballots were “rammed” into the Accuvote, as opposed to what likely happened here, where legal ballots were improperly placed in the Accuvote. Until you prove this necessary first step, how they can be separated is irrelevant.

    If you can prove that this occurred (which I doubt), then, unlike Goldy, I think the Court may allow a proportional analysis. However, given the statistical uncertainties of such an endeavor, only a very large shift should be significant enough to cause the Court to overturn the election, like a shift of maybe 500-1000 votes. The Court also has to take into account any illegal votes the D’s come up with from Republican counties.

  42. 49

    Jeff B. spews:

    Goldy @12,

    No you can’t. I’m not commenting on your analysis one way or the other, I’m commenting on your ad-hominem attack toward Stefan.

  43. 50

    VRWC spews:

    Proud Leftist, Wayne, Alan @38,39,40,41

    The person running the AG office is responsible for all that goes on. Harry Truman once said “The buck stops here.” and I firmly believe that. It isn’t that she lost the case with good effort, she lost it with no effort.

    Proud Leftist – There wasn’t a chance for a new trial since there was a default judgement awarded in the case.

    The tobacco settlement was the effort of other state AG’s. Gregoire played no significant role other than a few photo ops. She was just the lucky beneficiary of the settlement. And as I said before, the securitization resulted in the state getting less than 30 cents on the dollar for the settlement. This is one of the reasons we don’t have the money for the Alaskan Way Viaduct. If there really was 4.5 billion as you all claim, we wouldn’t be discussing raising the gas tax 9.5 cents/gallon.

    All she has managed to do since she stole the governor’s mansion is to raise taxes and make the prices of automobiles go up.

  44. 52

    Goldy spews:

    Cynical @43,

    Interesting question. You can’t separate out illegal votes stuffed into Accuvote machines. Good thing that’s not what happened in this election.

    Jeff B. @49,

    Hmmm. I think my comments about Stefan were more adjectival than ad hominem. They had nothing to do with the logical, reasonable argument I made… an argument you are totally avoiding, I assume, for want of a means of refuting it.

  45. 53

    spews:

    vrwc @ 51
    counterexample of what? If they don’t have any data on felon voting patterns, and they don’t consider the strong possibility that felons vote in a sui generis pattern–you’re saying you expect me to HAVE felon data and provide that pattern, lest their analysis be correct without it? Yeah, whatever.

  46. 54

    Marilyn spews:

    VRWC@33:

    I think the census data would show that most felons are males; and that in Washington State at least, given the mostly vanilla demographic, most of them are white males, just like dino. Therefore, it stands to reason that most felons would have voted for Dino. And, why would any felon (male or female) vote for someone who had served as attorney general? I’m not at all surprised that the BIAW would know a lot of felons, but I suspect they all voted for Dino.

  47. 55

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Goldy@52–
    Yes it did…felons put illegal votes into Accuvote machines.

    Wayne@49–
    Why do you think the R’s would have to show “500-1000 votes” in an election with a 129 vote margin???
    The 129 vote margin is based on flawed information.
    I doubt the Judge is going to arbitrarily come up with a number like that. Based on the evidence provided, the Judge will either accept or reject the R’s arguments and methodology. If the end result is a tie or Rossi is ahead…..R’s win.
    Even though it sounds good to say the R’s must cover the 129-vote margin PLUS hundreds more…do you really think that is based in law Wayne?

  48. 56

    Proud Leftist spews:

    VRWC @ 50

    A default judgment is entered only when a defendant in a civil suit fails to respond to a suit at all. In the case we’re talking about, the state not only responded, but litigated the case fully. A jury assessed damages and judgment was entered on the verdict. Once judgment was entered, the state had 30 days in which to appeal. The state, as we know, did not file in that period. If it had filed, a new trial most certainly would have been one of the remedies the Court of Appeals could have ordered. The case in no sense involved a default judgment.

  49. 57

    Wayne spews:

    Mr. C

    My belief that the Court will want certainty is based on the burden of proof, and the very large statistical uncertainty involved in the proportional analysis the R’s are suggesting. For example, the study saying that felons are likely to vote democratic bases that primarily on the fact that felons are likely to be poor and minority, and poor and minority voters tend to favor democrats. If you are analyzing felons from King County, which is heavily democratic, and the felon vote is more skewed to poor white males, who may favor Rossi, are the felons going to vote more like the county or precinct as a whole, or like the similar non-felon demographic? The uncertainty created is so large that if the R’s analysis gives Rossi a victory by only a few votes, I don’t think they have met their burden of proof.

  50. 58

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Stefan told me the other day someone his been peeking in his windows and the guy looks a lot like Goldstein.
    Goldy’s obsession with Stefan has reached epidemic proportions. Goldy occassionally has an original thought but it is rare.
    This obsession is stifling his creativity.

    PS:
    Stefan put a hanging basket of stinging nettles under his bathroom window last night Goldy. Care to explain to your readers why you were seen at the emergency room holding your crotch, screaming & writhing in pain?

  51. 59

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Wayne–
    I do understand what you are saying. If the law required absolute proof rather than appears, I would tend to agree with you. But it doesn’t.
    Proving Fraud—not required
    Proving outcome–not required (APPEARS)

    Kind of tricky, ain’t it?

  52. 60

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Wayne–
    I believe in this election contest that once the Judge accepts a certain formula, it will be applied to whatever number of illegal ballots proven to his satisfaction and the answer is what it is.
    With your logic, shouldn’t Gregoire also have to win by 500-1000?

  53. 61

    Wayne spews:

    Mr. C

    The R’s have the burden of proving “appears”. If they had to prove outcome, even proportional analysis would not be allowed. If a proportional analysis results in only a few vote margin for Rossi, the best you could say is “It is possible he got more votes”, not “it appears he got more votes”.

    My reasoning is only relevant to a contest of an election, not the election itself. I think the legislature wanted it to be hard to overturn an election.

    This is cool. A civilized discussion without snide comments (not many anyway) and no SHOUTING.

  54. 62

    spews:

    Stefan told me the other day someone his been peeking in his windows and the guy looks a lot like Goldstein.
    Goldy’s obsession with Stefan has reached epidemic proportions. Goldy occassionally has an original thought but it is rare.
    This obsession is stifling his creativity.

    Stefan is the one obsessed. He actually believes he’s seeing people peeking in his windows? And he believes it’s Goldy, too?

    Yes folks….Goldy has nothing to do besides track down Stefan and be a Peeping Goldstein. Film at 11.

    Stefan’s problem is that he can’t actually prove any of his allegations. His MO is to throw shit up against the wall and cross his fingers that it sticks.

    Dino has proved himself to be the ultimate sore loser. He should have conceded this thing long ago.

  55. 63

    Goldy spews:

    Cynical @58,

    Stefan told me the other day someone his been peeking in his windows and the guy looks a lot like Goldstein.
    Goldy’s obsession with Stefan has reached epidemic proportions.

    Um… it sounds to me that it’s Stefan who has the obsession.

    (And as Stefan well knows, I’ve never peeked in his windows. I hire somebody to do all my snooping and trailing for me.)

  56. 64

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Goldy @ 63–
    Oh yeah–
    Well then how do explain all your screaming and wailing at the emergency room fancy boy!!? Those stinging nettles can create havoc on a scrotum as you just found out Goldy.

  57. 65

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Wayne@61–
    “This is cool. A civilized discussion….”

    OOPS, sorry to my pals on the Right.
    Sorry about this Wayne because I think we’ve boiled this down to a key point that when Judge Bridges rules may decide this whole bloody thing………but you know I have a reputation to maintain. Close your eyes hear Wayne…………………..

    “SCREW YOU WAYNE YOU IDIOT”!

    Open your eyes now Wayne.
    I’m real sorry about that but image is important!

  58. 66

    Wayne spews:

    Mr. C

    Is that a sense of humor I detect? They may take away your membership card! Oops, I better get mine in too.

    YOU CRAZY RIGHT-WING WACK JOB!

    Ahh. That feels so much better. Now back to your regular programming.

  59. 67

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Wayne–
    Remember when Dan Ackroyd and Jane Curtin used to do the news together on SNL?
    It was awesome—
    Ackroyd would calmly respond to Curtin with the standard precursor–
    “Jane, you ignorant slut!”

  60. 68

    jpgee spews:

    VRWC @ 37 “If Dino was in office, instead of adding fat to the budget at the expense of the working stiff, we’d be trimming the fat. One word – VETO” What you really mean to say was that if Dino was in office, he would be doing whatever his daddy, the BIAW, wanted him to do! If he ever gets into public office again he owes that group his life, and he will spend the rest of his life kissing their ass any way that they want him to

  61. 69

    jpgee spews:

    Wayne, seems you are new here so I will give you a little history. Mr. Cynical is a non entity! In the 6 months that I have been reading/blogging here at HA he has not said one constructive word! He only states his prejudiced/slanted views and resorts to calling everyone else an obscene word or a typical neo-con ‘moniker’. You need not answer his posts or feel animosity towards him. He was probably abused by one of his idols as a young boy and now works supposedly for BIAW. By reading his posts, he constantly uses ‘male sexual innuendos’, what it is as actually a ‘cry for help’ to allow him to be comfortable with his inner desires. Now you have ‘the rest of the story!’

  62. 70

    zapporo spews:

    Goldy – Your analysis is really beside the point for me. I basically agree with you. I was simply responding to your attacks on the Shark. With a wry touch of humor that was evidently lost on Mr. Panties in a Wad DanW.

    JeffW
    Liberal – Morally unrestrained; licentious
    Fascist – A reactionary or dictatorial person.

    Morally unrestrained dictatorial ranting maniac. Sounds about right for , s>jpgee especially the liberal fascists that post herein.

    jpgee Bless your heart.

    Now for those of you a bit miffed about certain postings that put your undergarments in a knot, here’s the truth whether you like it or not –

    You know who we are.
    We are here for one purpose.
    To steer you towards the center.
    To bring you back from that flaming left-wing fanatical edge.
    It’s a damn shitty job, but somebody’s got to do it.

  63. 71

    jpgee spews:

    why thank you mrs. zapporo, you are really a nice ole gal to keep blessing me daily….but don’t worry, I will never join your church…..I have my own beliefs and no matter how hard you try, you cannot sway my conviction to Buddhism,. But to keep with the lovely tone of yours, Mrs. Zap, bless your heart too.

  64. 72

    Wayne spews:

    jpgee

    I agree that most of the postings I have seen from Mr. C have not been constructive. However, in our recent discussion, he was civil and on point. I think that should be encouraged from all sides, as all too often, these comments deteriorate into name-calling and sexual innuendo on a junior high school level.

  65. 74

    jpgee spews:

    Wayne, maybe you are right about Mr.C. Looks like he is back on his meds again. Thank god for Mrs. C! (#73 is great example of my previous post mr.c)

  66. 77

    zapporo spews:

    weirdo @76 – How did you know the name of my dachshund Marica? What are you trying to do to my dog? My dog is not interested. Got that?