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My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.
For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 379 electoral votes with a 6.97% probability
- 373 electoral votes with a 4.31% probability
- 385 electoral votes with a 4.00% probability
- 397 electoral votes with a 3.89% probability
- 378 electoral votes with a 3.84% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 2.99% probability
- 391 electoral votes with a 2.81% probability
- 372 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 396 electoral votes with a 2.51% probability
- 394 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 378.1 (20.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 159.9 (20.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 379 (334, 413)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 159 (125, 204)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 212 | |||
| Strong Biden | 100 | 312 | ||
| Leans Biden | 67 | 67 | 379 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 379 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 159 |
| Leans Trump | 40 | 40 | 159 | |
| Strong Trump | 77 | 119 | ||
| Safe Trump | 42 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 536 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| AK | 3 | 3 | 2476 | 48.1 | 51.9 | 9.4 | 90.6 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 9 | 6216 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 799 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 33.0 | 67.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3* | 2118 | 65.1 | 34.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 3 | 2204 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 814 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 394 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 9 | 12372 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| GA | 16 | 7 | 5094 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 29.6 | 70.4 | ||
| HI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| ID | 4 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 929 | 42.8 | 57.2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 1716 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 65.5 | 34.5 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 643 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2 | 1409 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| ME | 2 | 3 | 2666 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1 | 383 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1 | 391 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 68.0 | 32.0 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 765 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 621 | 70.5 | 29.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 9 | 7320 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 3 | 2329 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 517 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 5.9 | 94.1 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3* | 2672 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 2.9 | 97.1 | ||
| MT | 3 | 4 | 3486 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 477 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 87.7 | 12.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 1* | 717 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 80.3 | 19.7 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1* | 981 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 95.4 | 4.6 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 423 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 681 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1* | 717 | 64.0 | 36.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 8 | 5944 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 84.4 | 15.6 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 372 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| OH | 18 | 3 | 3441 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 33.4 | 66.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 2* | 930 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| PA | 20 | 9 | 7358 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 3 | 1886 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 3.8 | 96.2 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TX | 38 | 6 | 7092 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 77.7 | 22.3 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 927 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.8 | 99.2 | ||
| VT | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 1075 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 499 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 495 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 5 | 2985 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Note: This is NOT an open thread. Please take off-topic comments to an open thread.
Looks like Trump’s instincts were okay. But his timing was simply awful. Deadly even. April was just too soon for BEACH WEEK!! and everybody could see. Now it’s all too late.
He probably should have delayed BEACH WEEK!!! until September and combined it with BACK TO SCHOOL MADNESS!!!! But when you rely on stupid douche nozzles like Peter Navarro things like this are just going to happen.
#owngoal
And Biden wins by being nothing more than “the other guy who is not Trump”. Think about that one, Trolls4Trump. That’s how bad your judgment is. The guy you are backing so hard you’re willing to overlook him selling the lives of US Marines to please Putin is so sickening to Real America that they’ll vote for anyone. Anyone. They might even have voted for Mike Pence.
Just think what you might have done with that. You could have dumped Trump. Dems even handed you a WonkaBar with a Golden Ticket in Jan. You could have “reluctantly done your duty”, convicted the motherfucker, and you’d be running Race Bannon right now. And it wouldn’t have been your fault. Susan Collins would be coasting to victory. McSally would have a shot. Mitch would have his majority secure. And Pelosi would be fighting an image battle.
This bloodletting is so much worse than Goldwater in ’64. The bleeding is going to last longer too.
Looks like the inversion of a zit, a black hole in the center of the Midwest, right where Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas meet.
Playing with interactive electoral vote maps, 400 EVs for Biden doesn’t look out of reach to me, although I severely doubt he can keep Trump under 100, and I certainly don’t foresee anything like the electoral vote sweeps of 1964 and 1972, even though Biden might surpass LBJ’s popular vote percentage.
These projections are very tricky, and this far ahead of an election, they’re just playing. And that’s all I’m doing here.
It’s not impossible for Trump to pull off a comeback, but his odds are better if his side deploys foreign interference, disinformation, massive vote suppression, voter intimidation, closing polling locations, shutting down the mail system, other tactics to create delays and chaos, and outright cheating, ballot box stuffing, and tampering with vote tallies.
I kinda expect his campaign, the GOP, and their foreign allies to attempt all those things. And, if that doesn’t work, he’ll accuse the Democrats and the election is illegitimate.
I’m sure a constitutional amendment can be ratified in the next month or so in order to turn this polling around…
4,
Maybe raise the voting age to 50 and include a pie eating contest?
@5
Quarter pounders
6,
Political realignment leading to the formation of…
The Flaturin Party and their 2028 nominee Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho!
Shut up.
I found a woman that’s Doctor Dumbfuck’s type.
@8 I expected a more horse like replica.
@9 She’s at least got the face of a horse.
@10. I suppose…. it is kind of how I expected Bob to look like. A horse is a horse.
Gee, look at all those on-topic posts at the tail end there…
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