On Thursday, Referendum 74 absolutely kicked ass. Its cumulative support numbers jumped from 52.0% to 52.6%, a real accomplishment when you’ve only added about 300K ballots to the prior count of almost 2.2 million.
How’d they do it? Well, Approve got almost 57% of the vote on Thursday. Only two of the 20 reporting counties did worse on Thursday than on the first two days — tiny Lincoln (542 ballots counted) and Kitsap, where “only” 52% of the day’s ballots voted in the affirmative.
According to my estimation approach, the proportion voting Approve is likely to rise a bit by the time we’re done counting; I have it as 52.8% to Approve, 47.2%
bigots Reject. Ladies and gentlemen, R-74 is a winner!
As for the other three races we’re following, there was little overall change observed. In the Governor’s race, however, that stasis masks what might become a problem. Rob McKenna did better than before in 15 of the 20 counties that submitted reports on Thursday. Some of the changes — +2.4% in Clark, Grays Harbor, Skagit, and Whatcom; +3.2 in Snohomish; +3.4% in King; +3.9% in Kitsap; +4.0% in Lincoln — look pretty impressive until you realize that the vote counts in many of the counties were quite small compared to the statewide total. In the end, McKenna pulled in 49.0% of the day’s vote … a lower proportion than he drew on Wednesday. For the day, Inslee’s lead increased by nearly 6000.
Still, it fits in nicely with the scenario advanced by Randy Pepple, the McKenna campaign head, who suggests that late ballots will swing their way starting on Friday and continuing into next week. We’ll see about that, though I must note that the recent history of Republican prognostication is, shall we say, spotty.
Kim Wyman extended her lead a little bit in the Secretary of State race. She’s now ahead of Kathleen Drew by a 1.4% margin, 50.7% to 49.3%. My prediction model suggests that the race could tighten in coming days, though it still shows Wyman ahead by a 50.4% to 49.6% margin.
The vote on I-1240, the
Gates/Walton enrichment charter schools initiative, got much tighter on Thursday. The Yes side led 51.1% to 48.9% heading into Thursday, but a strong day for the No forces (they got 54.4% of the day’s votes) dropped the Yes lead to a thin 50.5% to 49.5%. It’s the closest race on my list. My model pegs the final tally at that same 1-point margin, but that can still be reversed if ballots continue to come in as they did on Thursday.
Finally, it looks like the counties have caught up with their backlog of pre-Tuesday ballots. The estimated count of to-be-processed ballots decreased significantly on Thursday, from 744,382 all the way down to 595,614. As the number of arriving ballots continues to decrease, that figure will fall even farther.