It is a beautiful Tuesday, and the folks that make up the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be getting together to talk politics over a drink. Please stop by.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern or, perhaps, on the back patio. We start at 8:00pm.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, stop by another chapter near you.
Hey all you poll-sniffers!
Latest Marist shows RFK, Jr. increasing Biden lead over Trump The Rapist.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/election-2024-april/
Moves the lead outside the MOE.
I don’t think polls in April are very effective at accurately predicting what will happen in November.
But they probably have a story to tell about what is happening right now in April. So now we have a few weeks of high quality polls indicating movement in Biden’s direction among likely voters. As well as a few high quality polls indicating that RFK, Jr. either has no discernable effect or is more likely to lower Trump’s numbers.
You see, the unborn are precious to liberals if they might grow up to kill a Jew someday.
Majority of Gaza’s frozen embryos destroyed in Israeli strike
Strike on Al Basma IVF centre, which happened in December, blasted lids off liquid nitrogen tanks in embryology unit
What, those little puddles of goo?
When considering the claimed Gazan death toll and that 150% of the dead are children, keep in mind that a Palestinian is counted as a child until he kills his first Jew.
New ad:
https://youtu.be/7UYpain54GE
Not even from a major PAC.
And they really haven’t even gotten started yet. Oof.
Back In Black.
TECH
Tesla shares jump 11% after Musk says company aims to start production of affordable new EV by early 2025
Lack of standing was very popular in the Obamacare days.
@ 1
Moves the lead outside the MOE.
Yawn. Wake me when it moves the lead into the NPV determination of the presidential victor.
The U.S. Secret Service has begun assembling a team and is conducting planning for the near term eventuality that Trump The Rapist is ordered confined for contempt, as well as the long term eventuality that he is convicted and sentenced to prison.
7,
In a race his own sources tell him is a statistical tie, the Village Idiot declares boldly that he would prefer to be the runner being overtaken rather than the runner moving into the lead.
Congratulations to past and future president Donald Trump for becoming $1,150,000,000 richer at market close today.
Why we need to just punch the Nazis in the face. It took less than 9 months to go from “We need to hold Universities accountable for not creating safe spaces for our radical right wing speech to be less than embarrassing in the classroom!” To “We need to send the national guard in to arrest them for speech.”
@2
You try so very hard and come up as just another asshole with a keyboard.
Wanted pregnancies by infertile couples is not the same as charging clinic staff with murder for destruction of embryos either after to successful implantation of IVF patients or negligence in the care of embryos.
Your leap of comparison is wider than the Nile.
@10
Self proclaimed stock genius doesn’t comprehend what dilution is.
@ 9
In a race his own sources tell him is a statistical tie…
Actually, CNN tells me Trump’s a winner.
That’s what happens when you cheer NPV polls in a race that has zero connection to NPV, QoS McHillbilly. Why do you give false hope to Queen YLB and to The Even Bigger Fucking Moron?
I can’t fully answer McHillbilly without including RCP:
2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States
Statistical tie my ass.
the claimed Gazan death toll and that 150% of the dead are children
Notice the kreepee coward of widbee doesn’t produce numbers or what it might consider credible sources for the death toll in Gaza.. Dead women, children, and other non-combatants or fighters for that matter.
Instead it bleats hateful memes.. yawwwn.. typical always wrong wing bore..
New phenomenon is a Side.-all sexual orientations. No such thing as gay or straight. And they don’t like it
In a red state. Don’t forget that part. It’s important.
14, 15,
When Trump The Rapist loses badly in November, rather than quietly admit that he never really grasped statistical analysis, the Village Idiot will at first begin muttering about “irregularities” in late returns right around Wednesday night, before launching into full-blown florid hallucinations about Space Lasers by Thursday night.
Just like he did the last time Trump The Rapist got his ass handed to him.
@ 16
… doesn’t produce numbers or what it might consider credible sources for the death toll in Gaza.
I haven’t, lately.
There is no “credible”, first of all. There’s the Hamas-approved Palestinian Ministry in Gaza figures and there’s the IDF. This war doesn’t have a referee.
IDF most recently has reported 13,000 Hamas fighters killed. Palestinian figures do not separate out civilian vs Hamas casualties.
There are various reports of civilian:Hamas kill ratios. In December there were reports of 2:1. I have seen numbers as low as 1.4:1. Historically speaking those are incredibly low ratios.
Queen YLB, I have shown my work. Feel free to take issue, but please do tell me how many children were killed while within 20 feet of a Hamas fighter while you’re at it, OK, girlfriend?
Just like he did the last time Trump The Rapist got his ass handed to him.
My recollection is that teh kreep threw in the towel early on election day.. all the dozens of bleats about “that’s how you get 4 more years of drumpf” conveniently forgotten..
Then when all the noise from Rudy and its ilk started about the election being stolen, it walked back. yawwwn.. typical…
@2 @3 This is what a dumbfuck struggling to justify the deaths of children and bombing of baby clinics looks like.
21,
Of course.
Stoopid springs eternal.
Didja hear the one about the Democrat state senator who broke into her stepmother’s home, got arrested, and cost her party the state senate majority because she’s in jail now and can’t legislate?
@4 MAGA isn’t listening. They wouldn’t care if he raped babies, shot pregnant mothers, and stole coins from the barista tip jar. GOP voters have already demonstrated they have no character test for anybody, least of all themselves.
Something greater than a third of Pennsylvania registered Republicans voted for “anyone but a rapist.
Another catastrophe for Trump The Rapist that the poll-sniffing faithful must not admit.
@6 I believe there is widespread agreement that a president can’t be prosecuted while in office, the argument being this would distract him from carrying out the duties of the office. This rationale does not apply after he’s out of office, especially to acts committed before he was in office, such as those for which he is currently on trial that he allegedly committed to gain office.
@7 You’re the guy constantly citing popular vote polls.
@9 I always felt the hare got a bum rap for that race. He could’ve beat the tortoise if he had moved his legs.
17
degenerates gonna degenerate
@20 heh. a miracle.. it took being called out twice.. but ok
There’s nothing there about kids or women.. but it cites U.N. sources.. and claims there’s no “referee”..
So here’s something that came out today.. Yes, teh kreep will bleat that it’s Hamas propaganda:
As of 22 April, more than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, including 14,685 children and 9,670 women, the High Commissioner’s office said, citing the enclave’s health authorities. Another 77,084 have been injured, and over 7,000 others are assumed to be under the rubble.
“Every 10 minutes a child is killed or wounded. They are protected under the laws of war, and yet they are ones who are disproportionately paying the ultimate price in this war,” said the High Commissioner.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148876
So there it is.. Over 40k now.. and teh kreep is apparently still “OK” with it.. Most of everyone who’s not dead is crowded and starving in Rafah. Bibi and its madmen are dead set on blowing that to smithereens like they did in the North and Khan Younis..
The numbers will climb and teh kreepshit will be over the moon over the pile of bodies of people with funny last names.. a lot of women and kids and debilitated old men with missing limbs from previous Gaza slaughters.
@12 Does this mean anyone can sue Israel under Texas’s abortion vigilante law?
@16 These dead bodies aren’t real because IDF says so.
https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/KH113_2-489278.jpg
@20 Question for Dumbfuck? Which 2 of these children are Hamas combatants?
@24 Yeah, she’s in jail. That was quick. Democrats don’t have Teflon Don’s immunity from contempt sanctions, criminal sanctions, or civil judgments.
@31 The fact is nobody really knows how many people are killed in wars. The estimates for history’s major wars are all over the place. But Doctor Dumbfuck wishes to reassure us that in Gaza, whatever the true number is, no more than half of them are innocent civilians.
When Trump The Rapist finally accepts his “great honor to be a modern day Nelson Mandela” he’ll have to sit it out in segregation st Rikers while Secret Service agents are faced with the horrific duty of watching him shit.
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/index.html
All of a sudden tents are the enemy. Same with SCOTUS arguments over homeless — you can be in the park, but not with a tent, sleeping bag, or blanket. Squatting in million-dollar mansions is still legal in some places, though.
while Secret Service agents are faced with the horrific duty of watching him shit.
I read rumors of a body man helping drumpf change its diaper for years – even back to the The Apprentice days.
Wow kreepshit, check out all the mosques, schools, hospitals, etc. that Hamas used as “shields”..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/world/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/02/gazamisery4.jpg
It’s like every fucking building.. If it stands, blow it up.
@ 37
Squatting in million-dollar mansions is still legal in some places, though.
Somebody is still in love with the concept that a million dollars is a substantial sum of money.
Probably because his worth is nowhere near it.
You were a professor there; fired assholes have no title.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMFEqo9Nzto
Inspired by: “You were Norfolk; the dead have no title.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CrsiTkUWak
Actually he’s not fired yet, only banned from campus for, among other things, harassing and doxing students.
kreepshit and its ilk babbles that Hamas uses schools, day cares, mosques, churches (yes kreepshit, there are actually CHRISTIAN churches in Gaza) and hospitals as “shields”..
And if a building is not a “shield”, it is “terrorist infrastructure”..
Geez, as of the end of January, 50 to 61 percent of the buildings in Gaza were damaged or destroyed. That’s between 144 and 175 thousand buildings.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68006607
Safe to say, it’s a little bit more now.
As the rednecks used to babble, just kill ’em all and let god sort ’em out.
39 year old Elias Huizar a former Washington State Patrol officer. Good upstanding member of the fraternal order of the police. If you’ve been on the highways today or have Amber Alerts activated on your phone you know about how they’re looking for a silver Nissan.
That’s because Elias instead of handing off the infant shot his ex girlfriend and then ex wife in front of the school where she works in view of other teachers and students before taking off with the infant child.
He was a law abiding gun owner at 8am this morning.
While I’m posting videos, here’s one of the MAGA crowd at the courthouse:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_8J-BLqQNA
@40 It is for someone working for $7.25 an hour. Of course, you and I are paid a lot more than that even though we don’t work at all, because we’re capitalists. We get lower tax rates, too.
@43 As of this evening, he has a bullet in his head, and the child is OK.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ex-officer-accused-killings-kidnapping-baby-shoots-self-chase-rcna149092
This dude was a school cop before he became a child rapist and then a double murderer and kidnapper.
@46. So weird. Not trans or a drag queen.
This dude was a school cop before he became a child rapist and then a double murderer and kidnapper.
There you go again, RR, saying “bad things” about LE. kreepshit’s head will explode.
Read ’em and weep, libbies.
Small wonder QoS McHillbilly keeps throwing out national polls. The battlegrounds will hand it to Trump. Bigly.
Ukraine: “Hey, thanks for the $61B. We’re gonna push oil prices up and elect Trump with it.”
Ukraine Hits Multiple Russian Refineries Overnight Despite US Warnings
The SPR is already way too low and prices are so high that my corrupt, incompetent, senile fossil of a president doesn’t want to book the L by purchasing at prices higher than he sold.
Too bad, too bad.
Worser and worser.
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
I Thought the Bragg Case Against Trump Was a Legal Embarrassment. Now I Think It’s a Historic Mistake.
Libbies have already cheapened the terms Nazi and traitor such that they mean nothing. They’re now cheapening the term election fraud such that it can be used against Biden next year.
Polls conducted exclusively online using opt-in methodology and provided by hundreds of outside contractors with no oversight sure will. They can’t even reliably say if those respondents reside in those states, much less whether they are voters.
The registered voter number is arrived at by asking whether the respondent is registered. And most of their contractors don’t go to the added expense of validating the answer, even though it’s public record. The likely voters are those who give a positive response on a Likert-scaled question (“somewhat likely,” “very likely,” or some variant, but it’s usually a 5-point or 7-point scale).
I’ve never paid much attention to Morning Consult. It’s the Starbucks of survey research companies. Basically bad coffee disguised with syrups and creamers served up in a very convenient and handsome setting.
I contend that their data are more reliable in low turnout events owing to their methodology which has a sampling bias favoring more actively engaged respondents. And I concede that if November 2024 is a low turnout election Trump is much more likely to win. But I see almost zero evidence suggesting that November 2024 will be low turnout.
51,
None of Trump The Rapist’s jurors see any law prof analysis.
What they will see is weeks of eyewitness testimony declaring each element of the charged offenses followed by instructions about how to apply that evidence to the charges.
And when they return a guilty verdict all the law professors will meekly shrug and complain that “you can’t explain juries”.
In March, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. had pushed Ukraine to stop its attacks on Russia’s oil refineries for fear of spikes in global oil prices and the risk of Russian retaliation.
Refineries don’t produce crude.. They produce gasoline, diesel, etc.
Oil wells produce crude.
The SPR is already way too low
48 percent of its peak inventory in 2010. And what puts the “stategery” in “strategic”? Could it be fueling America’s war machine?
You could call in favors for that: Kuwait, Iraq, Libya.. sheesh.. Mexico..
Or you could knock off an oil producer that bothers klownservatics: Venezuela.. yawwwn..
And when they return a guilty verdict all the law professors will meekly shrug and complain that “you can’t explain juries”.
The charges are misdemeanors.. Those appear open and shut.. Lots of documentation, etc.
Turning those charges into a felony looks weak on appeal.
The real crime to me is that the fixer went to jail following the orders of its crime boss and another fixer, Billy Barr, interfered with the SDNY investigation and filing documents so nothing would stick to teflon Don.
In his remarks accompanying the signing of Ukraine aid President Biden used the opportunity to remind everyone that the original bipartisan legislation negotiated over months and passed by the Senate included sweeping improvements to border security and immigration enforcement that were stripped out by House Republicans. And he called upon Republicans to get back to work and restore that vital legislation so he can sign it as well.
“Worser and worser.”
55,
…looks weak on appeal.
Perhaps. It should go without saying that with unlimited RNC and PAC donor funds to pay for lawyers, Trump The Rapist will be appealing everything to exhaustion.
But that still leaves the GOP nominee standing before swing voters as a convicted felon. And it still leaves him siphoning hundreds of millions of dollars away from Republican campaigns for many years to come.
These are very good things.