Please join us this evening as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets for an evening drinks, conversation and NH primary returns.
We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. Look for us in the back room of the pub beginning about 8pm.
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From previous Thread
Gooooooooo Pete!!
All the cool gay kids are supporting Amy Klobuchar.
Clay Aiken on 2020 primary: Why I’m changing my vote from Joe Biden to Amy Klobuchar
Oh, and Valerie Plame just took more money from a Holocaust denier.
Benjamin Dixon
@BenjaminPDixon
Replying to @BenjaminPDixon
Audio of @MikeBloomberg’s 2015 @AspenInstitute speech where he explains that “you can just Xerox (copy)” the description of male, minorities 16-25 and hand to cops.
Bloomberg had video of speech blocked.
Perhaps because of the problematic explanation he gives for #StopAndFrisk
12:58 PM – Feb 10, 2020
Still to come: #WallStreetPete tries to pass this off because his family owned fewer slaves than the national average.
Census Records: Pete Buttigieg’s Ancestor Owned Slaves On Native American-Ceded Land
This will play well in South Carolina.
No wonder the racist incel was posting about Buttigieg’s Giraffe hording.
#BloombergIsRacist Trends As Second Resurfaced Clip Shows Dem Candidate Saying ‘We Disproportionately Stop Whites Too Much And Minorities Too Little’
https://www.newsweek.com/bloombergisracist-trends-second-resurfaced-clip-shows-dem-candidate-saying-we-disproportionately-1486722
I don’t think this will play well with liberals everywhere.
I think a Bloomberg nomination is the best thing to get the impeached miserable failure reelected.
5 – Then he will be impeached AND re-elected. Quite a combination.
Responding to RR @82 in re Bitecoffer in previous thread;
I’m not sure you are grasping what she means by negative partisanship. I’m not agreeing with her per se. But I am pointing out that her analysis of the electorate seems to be very consistent with the Trump strategy, which has evolved over time.
And strategy is the point of Bitecoffer’s analysis, not candidate identity. A focus on the identity of the candidate in relation to a model of the electorate is the hitherto more conventional analysis giving rise to strategy. Thus the strategy is to frame a candidate identity and narrative, and supporting messaging, designed to persuade a portion of unaligned swing voters.
Bitecoffer model of the electorate assumes in essence that there really are no “unaligned” swing voters, or at least not nearly enough. Not in comparison to the reservoir of essentially already aligned available voters who participate infrequently.
If that is true (and it really is a key point of debate about her model – and it certainly is not hers alone) then it raises a very important question: what strategy is most effective at triggering turnout among those already aligned available voters who participate infrequently?
Bitecoffer’s theory of negative partisanship argues that the most effective strategy in that regard is one targeting those voters with negative messages, attacks, and threats focusing exclusively on the opposition. The most effective candidate becomes a walking, talking attack ad – Trump.
@2 I hope those cool gay guys don’t end up crying when Klobuchar loses.
Let’s not forget that Trump’s candidacy was aided in no small part by the moronic campaign run by his opponent.
Only in the racist incel’s world is Clay Aiken a cool gay kid. Clay Aiken is 41.
9,
It was indeed very moronic if Bitecoffer’s model of the electorate is correct. She did not analyze that election in advance, but only in its aftermath as a data source to improve her subsequent modeling.
But in her estimation Clinton lost the key states that gave Trump the Electoral College because in those states the Trump campaign strategy did a far superior job of producing turnout among otherwise infrequent Republican voters.
But what ought to disappoint you about that, Dumbfuck, is knowing that had the same campaign strategy been employed by JEB! he would have marched through a glorious primary season and on to win the White House. And you wouldn’t have been forced to spend the last three years conjuring up excuses for a political party leader who brags about a lengthy history of violent sexual assaults against women.
Fuck New Hampshire I’m out here, going down and see my darkies, get em all ginned up and then put um back in chains.
5,
In case anyone has any doubt about what Bloomberg is defending just watch this. It’s less than 15 min but worth it because of the added context of anonymous NYPD officers both confirming the practice as well as explaining how it makes their jobs more difficult, more dangerous, and less effective:
https://youtu.be/7rWtDMPaRD8
Cival War Dep’t:
“A 24-year-old an Army infantry soldier described by prosecutors as a Satanist who hoped to overthrow the U.S. government pleaded guilty Monday to distributing information through social media about building a bomb and making napalm … a third felony charge of threatening to burn down the house of a far-left-leaning ‘antifa’ member … is to be dismissed under the plea agreement.”
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/02/11/satanist-fort-riley-soldier-pleads-guilty-bomb-plot-charges.html?ESRC=army_200211.nl
Well, at least Franklin Graham can say he wasn’t one of his followers …
@3 “Oh, and Valerie Plame just took more money from a Holocaust denier.”
Which (if true*) makes Scooter Libby a “good guy” …
Got it.
* Helpful hint: Don’t take anything Dumbfuck spews at face value.
@4 Which makes Mayor Pete complicit in slavery …
Got it.
Doctor Dumbfuck’s thought process is fucked up today.
Of course, that’s every day.
I hope Bloomberg fizzes out like a can of Coca Cola.
Goooo Mayor Pete!
@5 “I think a Bloomberg nomination is the best thing to get the impeached miserable failure reelected.”
Nobody on our side will vote for Trump, but yeah, he could hurt our turnout.
What really needs to happen is to get him on a debate stage with the other candidates and then confront him about this shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOyj6f0qh2Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChI76zHVWZc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW7_ZPiLXgI
@6 The Constitution doesn’t bar reelecting an impeached president. It doesn’t bar electing a Hitler, either. (And I believe Republicans are capable of that.) But that doesn’t make it right.
We already know Republicans either don’t know right from wrong, or don’t care if they’re in the wrong — that was plain last month. Their voters (e.g. you) are no better.
So it’s up to Democrats to keep Baby Hitler and his evil cohort (aka GOP congress critters) from being reelected.
We take that responsibility very seriously, because now that all the constitutional restraints on GOP power abusers have failed, we’re American democracy’s last firewall.
Why I have little problem with a Bloomberg nomination, distilled down into a single tweet:
Benjamin Dixon
@BenjaminPDixon
As far as the Supreme Court goes, we have no legitimate reason to think Bloomberg would make liberal or progressive appointments to the bench when he’s shown us lifetime of conservative beliefs and policies. #MikeBloombergIsARepublican#MikeBloomberg2020
1:35 PM – Feb 10, 2020
So tell me again, friends, why Bloomberg is preferable to Trump. While showing your math in your response, please remember to include that a Bloomberg presidency very well may extend into 2029, while Trump’s would end in 2025. RBG turns 96 in 2029.
And Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit @ 19, do you really think the Bloomberg audio and video we’re seeing today is a surprise to the DNC? Really? The DNC wants Bloomberg on stage, not because he can be shamed by the other candidates, but so that there will be one candidate who is willing to speak up, speak out, and tell the rest of them that they’re fucking morons if they nominate a socialist.
Just because Bloomberg says he’ll spend a ton of money doesn’t mean he has to follow through if Democrats own-goal themselves with Bernie. Stupidity should be painful.
The DNC knew about Bloomberg’s audio.
Everyone knew about Bloomberg’s audio.
Bloomberg knew the audio would be an issue.
Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit, the DNC wants Bloomberg on stage, and not because the other candidates can tear him down. The DNC wants Bloomberg on stage so that there will be one candidate on it who doesn’t drink the socialist Kool-Aide.
@7 “Bitecoffer’s theory of negative partisanship argues that the most effective strategy” is arousing lynch mobs.
Trump didn’t invent it. The KKK used it for years. He merely mainstreamed it along with the rest of KKK ideology.
@22 See #17 again.
@21 “So tell me again, friends, why Bloomberg is preferable to Trump.”
Character.
For the record, I don’t expect Dumbfuck to get it. Nothing in his track record suggests he will, or even can. He’s too dumbfuck.
Man Bob is all over the place like a good Troll.
Tulisi
Wang
Bernie
Klobuchar
Buttigieg
now Bloomberg
The man has got some convictions! (shh – he’s not really a fan of Putin).
Ahh yes, a balmy 50 degrees in the dead of Winter here in NYC. Weather is the only thing the South has going for it.
The future is looking great!
I found ‘froggy.
Bridgette Matter
@bridgetteANjax
· 5h
A source reveals Timm showed police 2 videos he took before ramming into the tent.
He willingly showed them to police and told police it was on purpose.
@ActionNewsJax
Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit questioned whether it was political.
Bridgette Matter
@bridgetteANjax
· 4h
Portion of unredacted report says Timm told police
“Someone had to take a stand.”
and he “Does not like
@realDonaldTrump
and that is part of the reason he wanted to run over the tent.”
Timm is charged with 2 counts of aggravated assault.
Of course it was political, you dumbfuck shill.
How Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit views the tent incident.
MSNBC Reports Republican Voter Registration Tent Deliberately Rammed Unsuspecting Van In Florida
A lot of fun was poked at the woman in Iowa who didn’t know that #WallStreetPete is gay.
At some point we should start letting gman have it as well. gman doesn’t know that #WallStreetPete is a Democrat.
The latest analysis of why Teh Dumbfuck is exclusively either:
a) a low quality troll algorithm;
b) a precocious teen;
c) a dumbfuck
Take his embrace of Bloomberg at face value along with his gathering implications of Bloomberg’s “inevitability”, ignoring the fact that his best recent nationwide polling has him trailing well behind in a shifting fight for third. Dumbfuck argues his path to the nomination is not only credible, but inevitable.
By the time Bloomberg has his first chance to surge based on an early breakout, 39% of all delegates will have already been awarded. He would have to capture 60% of all remaining delegates after Super Tuesday. And having announced his candidacy fewer than 80 days ago he has already surrendered a massive head start to every one of the other candidates he must defeat for those delegates. At least two of these candidates have massive, well established campaigns and support networks stretching back years with state party ties far stronger than anything Bloomberg has or will be able to assemble in the time available.
So perhaps Dumbfuck believes that, failing at a statistical near impossibility, Bloomberg’s path lies through gaining some lesser plurality of delegates whereby he can go to the convention in six months and employ amorphous dark magic and the secret power of his implied influence to change the convention rules and unbind the delegates. The biggest problem with this premise is that, even if this were a plausible scenario in the era of Trump and in the wake of 2016, both Biden and Sanders have greater influence over the leaders at the convention. And their influence will grow in the months ahead as the primaries progress. So that by the time you get to July a mass defection would have to unfold for Bloomberg to prevail in such a rules fight.
And despite what beltway insiders, Wall Streeters, and conservative pundits keep claiming, none of them having ever bothered to venture out to a single one of the state party orgs, there is no consensus for such a revolution. Remember, the other story they keep flogging is “disarray”. Well, that’s true insofar as there’s almost nowhere you can point to in any part of the national party at any level where any sort of “avowed consensus” shows any sign of developing. Party leaders are fairly evenly divided in their support. And almost all are hanging back and waiting for the primary voters to make the call.
But then it’s necessary to examine the credibility of Bloomberg as a candidate at all, isn’t it? All that dismal math is known to any smart guy like Bloomberg. A smart guy would know that you can’t get to the White House running as a third party candidate either (sorry Howard, you just aren’t that smart). Bloomberg is smart enough to get that much. A guy Dumbfuck would certainly have us believe is very smart, with more than enough money to fully self fund the best primary campaign imaginable, nonetheless waits until two and one half months of holiday drinking and television football before the first primary to announce. Huh?
There’s no rational explanation for that decision that does not bring you to conclude that Bloomberg isn’t in it to win the nomination. Because if he is, then he has started out by being incredibly stupid. And if he’s that stupid, it certainly has some implications for his path forward. But it also calls into question why anyone would want to nominate him in the first place?
I think Bloomberg hates Trump as much as most Real Americans do. He may even hate him more. They have some history. And Bloomberg may just feel that spending a few hundred million dollars this way to help remove Trump is an objectively good thing for which he will be remembered well. He may wish to be in a position to influence the convention platform and the nominee. But I don’t actually think he is running for the nomination. That really doesn’t actually make much sense.
Well, it looks like the jig is up for me!
I’m lookin’ at jail time.
21,
Dumbfuck, Biden was your best hope.
And you didn’t just go after him.
You threw yourselves on an impeachment grenade in order to wound him.
And you’re still at it.
Buck up. Biden is nowhere near done. Things will remain fluid enough for you to change horses again when the timing is right.
(See what I did there?)
People should keep resigning until Bill Barr himself has to go into court and inform the judge personally that he’s been notified by a tweet that the original sentence was too harsh.
Yes, a conservative site calling BS on what’s happening.
@27 “The man has got some insecurities!” ftfy
@29 “Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit questioned whether it was political.”
The police said they didn’t know if it was political. Why are you attacking the cops? Are you an anarchist?
@30 “MSNBC has reported that a Republican voter registration tent deliberately rammed an innocent van that was just minding its own business”
Funny satire. I’m laughing. At you. Your horse laughs at you, too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U91Zp9wWS30
Took less than 24 hrs.
DOJ team prosecuting Roger Stone files their sentencing rec.
2 am Trump rage-Tweets.
Twelve hours later main DOJ overrides earlier sentencing rec.
Two hours after that all four senior prosecutors and supervisors resign.
Can they be called to testify before the House?
Yes. Yes they can.
@32 The best reason I can think of for voting against Bloomberg in Washington’s March 10 primary is that Doctor Dumbfuck likes him.
@33 Give Paul Manafort my regards when you ass-bang him.
Neato.
On the same day the Republican RapeHero was finger banging the DOJ to help buy the silence of his pal Stone, he was also ordering the DOD to take disciplinary action against Vindman. For reasons.
I tell ya, he knows his people. They live for this kind of shit.
In @ 1 gman was telling us about the yuge younger voter turnout.
Maybe not so much.
Josh Kraushaar
✔@HotlineJosh
NBC exit poll: 11% of voters 18-29 in New Hampshire (was 19% in 2016).
(corrected from earlier)
2:26 PM – Feb 11, 2020
Personally, I think it is because all of the youngsters just learned that #WallStreetPete is homosexual.
@34 “(See what I did there?)”
I doubt it. As you’ve pointed out, he’s not smart.
I’m guessing Klobuchar comes within 3 points of #WallStreetPete and ends up with a donation landslide because of it.
Alex Seitz-Wald✔
@aseitzwald
Why might Klobuchar do better than expected tonight?
A whopping 48% of voters said they made up their mind in the past few days (up from 25% in 2016, 38% in 2008), per NBC News exits.
And 32% said the debate was an “important” factor in their decision, 16% said “most important”
3:16 PM – Feb 11, 2020
#WallStreetPete sucked eggs in that debate.
Mitch the Machine jams it into high gear.
Well qualified
Former Alabama Official Confirmed to Seat on 11th Circuit
The Senate confirmed him with a 52-43 vote on Tuesday afternoon.
“Andrew Brasher’s confirmation to sit on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit is a testament to his vast legal ability and commitment to upholding the rule of law as it is written,” Senator Richard Shelby, R-Ala., said in a statement Tuesday. “I believe Judge Brasher has served with impartiality, integrity and purpose as a district judge and I am confident he will continue to do so in this new capacity.”
@41,
I’M the one who takes it up the hoo-hoo, and don’t you forget it!
jams it into high gear.
Geezus. Dumbfuck’s pants just blew up.
I bet if we post a video of some paint drying his brain will melt.
Time to time.
Might be about time again, say what?
The Stone sentencing amendment is going to be quoted back to federal prosecutors at sentencing for the next decade.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing.
And it doesn’t have to increase the work load for line prosecutors or judges. But it will result in compelling reasons for judges to seriously consider downward departures within the guidelines. So prosecutors (and judges, really) will have to have their responses ready if they hope to avoid that. And while it may work to argue both sides of an issue before a bunch of sleeping, gassed-out, corrupt Republican senators, it actually gets you into trouble with federal judges.
Let the squirming begin! And as you squirm, remember all you currently serving AUSAs with ambitions for “higher service”, it is all being brought to you on behalf of your Republican Party.
You can almost hear the benches emptying.
Bill Weld’s numbers are starting to tick up!
Get excited Dumbfuck! This is the actual moment you are watching your last clean shot at decency disappear before your eyes!
And never forget, you did all you possibly could to help make that happen.
@46 ““I believe Judge Brasher has served with impartiality, integrity and purpose as a district judge …”
Which is more than Shelby did as an impeachment juror. Way more.
@47 Didn’t know you were one of “those” people. Well, we welcome diversity on this blog. Just hope you don’t do time in a jail with a lot of Republican inmates.
Could serve as precedent for Hillary’s sentencing if they ever get around to locking her up.
Bush43 – 8 years and couldn’t catch OBL
Trump – 4 years and couldn’t lock her up
Yang calls it quits.
@1 I wasn’t saying anything but Goooooo Pete!!!
@55 So does Bennet.
Cook Political Reports dude:
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
3m
I’ve seen enough. Projection: Bernie Sanders wins the NH Democratic primary.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
20m
Projection: Amy Klobuchar will finish in third place in NH, w/ roughly double the vote shares of Biden/Warren.
@ 51
I’m not insensitive to never-Trumper Weld’s passion.
I just don’t think that it trumps reality. (See what I did there?)
Derek Wallbank
@dwallbank
·
1h
Trump is running against a former Massachusetts governor, so if there were any threat of risk to the president, you might see it along the NH-MA border.
First two border areas to report have Trump getting like 90% of the vote there.
https://bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2020-02-06/new-hampshire-democratic-primary#5E4347E8B21C0004 via
@business
Barack’s pick, Deval Patrick, will call it quits am morgen.
Matt Stout
@MattPStout
·
16m
With results filtering in,
@DevalPatrick
said he and his wife are going to go home tonight and “make some decisions” tomorrow morning about future of campaign. Said he needed the “winds of from New Hampshire to carry us on” #fitn
With Patrick @ 60 out of the race, Barack’s free to stake another horse. The horse comment is my gift to y’all.
He’s not gonna back Biden.
If there’s one guy who can prevent a disastrous choice of Bernie Sanders, it’s Barack. As long as #WallStreetPete and Klobuchar split the “moderate” vote, Bernie’s got a nice shot at the nomination, especially after Warren tanks in NV and calls it quits, because most of her support will flow to Bernie.
Your move, Barack. You can come out now and back #WallStreetPete. It may give him the boost he needs to beat Bernie.
Unless, Barack, you think #WallStreetPete’s a fucking racist. ’cause you’d be in a position to know. South Bend’s only 96 miles from Chicago.
31% of male voters in NH are Bernie supporters. Only 16% of men in NH voted for Klobuchar.
BernieBros are the new incels. Actually, they always were, but they’ve spent the last four years wearing black hoods and Guy Fawkes masks, hiding their lack of success with girls by beating up on old people trying to cross at the crosswalk.
Steve has a black hood and a chain with a big lock at the end for each day of the week.
Bernie’s lead is barely over 2% and that’s down from a steady 5% earlier in the evening. The latest results are coming in from the south part of the state. Bedroom communities to Boston. That isn’t exactly Bernie country. It’s money country.
70% reporting.
@58 Your candidate got 3%. Not much better than the write-ins.
@62 I suppose Trump could face a woman in November. Just not the one he expected.
@41 Rog, now that was funny!
Bob is always guessing……guessing wrong. He failed sports and guessed the wrong answers on his medical exams.
I’m guessing that Buttigieg is within 2 points of striking Butterball Sanders and wiping his ass with Amy. If Bob can guess, then I mine as well ducking guess too.
Guess what?
I reached my 2800 limit so I can only volunteer for Pete from herein.
Bob why don’t you look up the percentage of people who made up thier mind today and who they all voted for.
4.3 above Clubfoot
Wasn’t Bob pulling for Castro too?
Bob, settle down. You can’t have them all
NBC projects The Bern as the winner in NH..
So much for “money country”.
A lot more states to go.
Looks to me like Mayor Pete won more of the urban ares and Sanders the more rural, by County.
I bet some of Clubfoot’s success was due to the political clout of the two NH woman Dem senators. Otherwise all Clubfoots votes were Pete’s, beating Bernie.
Bernie only 1.5 percent above Buttigieg. Ha!
…education levels may help explain why some Warren backers might have moved to Klobuchar instead of, say, Sanders. For instance, in the most recent Quinnipiac University national poll, a bit more than half of Warren’s support among white voters was college-educated but wholly two-thirds of Sanders’s white supporters do not have college degrees. So some college-educated voters in New Hampshire may have moved from Warren to Klobuchar, instead of to Sanders. We saw in the exit polls that Klobuchar won among college-educated voters.
The 538 blog @ 11:02p EST
Bernie supporters are no different than Trump supporters, other than Trump supporters shower much more frequently.
Maybe if Steve showered more often than once a lunar cycle he could get laid.
“…this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”
#WallStreetPete channeling Barack:
“One day, books will tell not just of one election but of the era that began right here in New Hampshire.” (538 blog @ 1112p)
After two state elections.
Where is YLB when you need her?
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
1h
Amy Klobuchar’s only possible pathway to the Dem nomination: consolidating suburban women.
Bernie supporters are no different than Trump supporters, other than Trump supporters shower much more frequently.
Found the white supremacist with a nose for the MAGA crowd.
@78 Yeah, he may be underestimating the persistence of the climate deniers. The flat earthers, their role models, lasted for centuries.
You humans are stupid. Some of you anyway.
@78 Mayor Pete is very much in this race. Franklin Graham is shitting in his pants.
Oh look, a suicide …
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/former-cnbc-anchor-michelle-caruso-210848667.html
83,
That’s pure opportunity.
The way AOC lives rent free inside their heads, the racist incels of the RapeFantasy Party, all ginned up for the big fight this year, will all get out their AARP Visa cards and max out. This woman will get to travel by town car and helicopter for the next nine months on OPM, get invited on to FOX for a dozen or more appearances, and by the time it’s over she’ll be inking another book deal and ringing up 50k on speakers bureaus.
Girl’s gotta strike while the iron is hot. Trump only comes once in a lifetime. (Melania knows what I’m talking about.)
Hey.
New poll has Kobach in a dead tie for Kansas Senate.
Kansas.
Senate.
A state Trump took by 20 points. And the best they can come up with to defend that is Kris Kobach. And so far it looks like he’s performing up to expectations.
@77
Or you can say that none switched over to Mayor Pete and conclude that his victory was a clear victory, not inflated by the help of a bunch of support from losing candidates. And how did all those voters know the results before the polls closed to not stick with Warren. What was they’re reasoning to flip floppity flop hop like you want to surmise. Keep guessing and shaping the narrative to what you want others to believe, you con man.
Mayor Pete the clear winner of New Hampshire, the way that you describe, he did it all by himself!!!
According to Bob – isn’t Gabbard supposedly going to run as an Independent? Wouldn’t a good time to do that be now?
[Picture of Mayor Pete in front of the White House]
Don’t they know that when the gays move in….
…The property values go up!
@88 intelligence too!