The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets this evening. Please join us for some good conversations over a drink.
We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle? Ok…then check out one of the 244 chapters of Living Liberally, including 23 in Washington state, six in Oregon and three in Idaho. Find a chapter near you. Or consider starting your own chapter.
Annnnnnnnd there goes Tillerson.
Oh goody, Tillerson is about to hold a press conference.
https://www.cnbc.com/
Let’s review:
“President Donald Trump just fired his top diplomat.
“His top economic advisor resigned last week.
“His personal assistant in the White House has been dismissed and escorted out of the executive mansion.
“His fourth communications director quit a few days ago after acknowledging she had lied to protect Trump.
“His staff secretary was ousted after public revelations of domestic abuse that other aides had kept hidden.
“Trump’s son-in-law, a top White House aide, has been stripped of his top security clearance.
“His current national security advisor is rumored to soon be leaving his job.
“The president’s aides, political associates and international allies treat his public declarations as empty chatter.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/the-trump-administration-is-teetering-on-the-edge-of-a-political-abysss.html
CNBC says Trump’s presidency is “teetering.” I’d say it’s falling off a cliff.
Wow, Tillerson really let Trump have it. Politely, of course. But between the lines … just, wow. This man is everything Trump is not: Honest, forthright, selfless, and recognizes the efforts and contributions of others.
Hmmm, I wonder if Trump just created a 2020 Republican primary challenger? Tillerson says he’s returning to “private life,” but he seems like the sort who thinks, “If you want something done right, you have to do it yourself … “
A climate change denier and a decorated friend to Russia by none other than Vlad Putin. Didn’t move a nanometer on recent sanctions on Russia. The State Dept is a shell of its former self.
Anyone with half a brain would consider drumpf a moron. It doesn’t take much grey matter.
I say good riddance if not for Pompeo – that guy has to be even worse, his noises on Russia aside.
@5 I didn’t say he’s perfect. All I said is Trump makes him look good by comparison.
“President Donald Trump’s longtime personal aide John McEntee has been fired and is under investigation by the Secret Service for serious financial crimes, according to two federal law enforcement officials.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-s-assistant-out-white-house-heads-campaign-n856196
Roger Rabbit Commentary: I’m pretty sure that’s not why he was fired.
“A GOP member of the House Intelligence Committee is breaking ranks with his fellow Republicans over a contentious report released Monday on Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible ties to the campaign of Donald Trump.
“Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) told CNN that ‘there is evidence’ the Russians worked to help Trump. ‘We’ve gone completely off the rails, and now we’re just basically a political forum …,’ Rooney said. ‘We’ve lost all credibility ….'”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tom-rooney-russia-report-cnn_us_5aa726d5e4b009b705d573f0
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Hey, I don’t write the news, I just pass on what’s being reported by more reliable sources than where Puddy gets his incoherent and fantastical diatribes from.
No surprise here: Prosecutors will seek the death penalty against Florida school shooter Nikolas Cruz.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/us/nikolas-cruz-parkland-massacre-death-penalty/index.html
Roger Rabbit Commentary: I know some of my liberal friends will disagree with me on this, but subject to due process and a proper evaluation of sanity, a remorseless madman who put 17 innocent kids into the ground doesn’t deserve to walk around above it even behind bars; and in that he didn’t kill himself, the state should do it for him.
I’m not a big fan of the death penalty, and I share the many concerns about overuse, false convictions, etc., and I support correcting its flaws; but I also think there are crimes that warrant death and criminals who deserve to be dead. So, to me, the question is not a philosophical one but the practical question of whether the system has sufficient safeguards to guarantee no innocent person will ever be executed, and the death penalty used sparingly for only the very worst crimes.
@7 And Undersecretary of State Steve Goldstein was let go for telling the truth–er, “contradicting the account of Tillerson’s dismissal”.
@9
I feel a very long life of crappy food, outdoor exposure for 30 minutes a day, visitors once in a blue moon is a better punishment than having it suddenly go black.
40-60 years of lonely soul crushing reflection.
@11 Or 16 hours a day of watching sitcom reruns on a 7″ b&w teevee.
“Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort could spend the rest of his life in prison, according to a federal judge in Alexandria, Virginia, assigned to oversee the case.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics.....d=53718155
Roger Rabbit Commentary: I’d say this is a man who has incentives to trade information for leniency.
Brennan Gilmore videotaped the murder of Heather Heyer by a white supremacist in Charlottesville. The white right didn’t appreciate it, and retaliated by making him into an object of outlandish conspiracy theories; among other things, they accused him of helping to “organize the car attack in order to somehow defame President Trump.” They even posted his parents’ address online. As a result, Gilmore has been harassed, hacked, accosted, and received death threats; and his parents received a powdery substance in the mail.
Gilmore isn’t taking this terrorism laying down. Today, he filed libel suits against Alex Jones, Infowars, Gateway Pundit, and Allen West. He says he won’t settle with the defendants. Apparently his strategy is to ask a jury for a verdict that will break them, as Morris Dees of the Southern Poverty Law Center successfully did against Richard Butler and his Hayden Lake neo-Nazis. Today, Butler is dead, his organization is bankrupt, his followers are dispersed, and his former compound has been converted into a peace park.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alex-jones-defamation-lawsuit_us_5aa7e4dae4b0e872b4bf22da
It’s all a long con but don’t expect our trolls to catch on.
45s declaration after seeing protypes that the Great Wall be see through when none of the prototypes were is just an excuse for never getting it built.
Never mind the plexiglass or actual glass is far more expensive to build …
@15 China’s Great Wall could not, and did not, keep Mongol invaders out. It did keep their horses out, so if the Mongols invaded China, they’d have to fight on foot, which evened the odds.
Likewise, Trump’s wall won’t keep Mexicans out, but they won’t be able to ride across the border like Pancho Villa or Geronimo anymore. They’ll have to fly in.*
* I think we can safely surmise that substituting airplanes for horses obviated the military strategy behind the Great Wall, too.
Trump himself says the current border keeps out “90-95%” of those attempting to enter. Are the multi-billions projected the best way to get the remaining 5-10%?
@17 Wall or no wall, given the impending U.S. labor shortage, he’ll soon be busing them in.
@14 “has been harassed, hacked, accosted, and received death threats”
Pretty much the same way they treat student survivors of school shootings.
Speaking of gross and obscene, where’s the loon? That was a weak showing the loon made yesterday, hardly even registering on the Peak Hate-O-Meter. I was half expecting him to really bring it but he just kind of fizzled out on us.
Heh. It will be toooo funnny to see the babbling butthole troll go NUTSO over this.
It’s how the freak is programmed.
@3
It is clearly the Trump Whitey House Clown Show.
I have no love for Tillerson as he is as has been pointed out, an oil stooge and a Putin-lovin’, climate denier, but compared to Trump, Tillerson was pretty good.
It is simply a disgrace to this great nation what the current POTUS is doing.
In returns from PA-18, with 30% of ballots counted, the Democrat leads 53% to 45%. The Republican has come up a bit.
A poll mathmetician I deeply respect estimated to win Lamb would need, by county / current totals
With almost 2/3rd reported
Allegheny – 58% / 57.9%
Greene – 41% / 41.2%
Washington – 47% / 49.3%
Westmoreland – 43% / 43.5%
PA-18, D-51%, R-48%, with 70% counted. It’s been steadily tightening, and with 30% to go, it looks to be very close. Not sure if Lamb has enough of a lead with that much to go.
Greene County is now reporting 100% counted, 41.3% for Lamb.
@22 I wonder how big the Republican’s hands are….that must have done him in – not big enough. But still too early to say that, I suppose.
PA-18, D-50.0%, R-49.4%, 95% counted. This is going to the wire.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html
Whether Lamb wins or not….look at the shift from the 2016 Election.
@28 Yeah, this is steel and coal country, and Trump’s 20%+ margin has evaporated. Whoever wins, Trump looks bad, but if Saccone wins by even 1 vote, he’ll spin it as a huuuuge victory!!!
Lamb is back at 50% with 96% in.
Still 3% of votes uncounted in Allegheny where he winning by 15+ points. (that’s about 3,000 votes left
About 3500 votes outstanding in Washington CO.
About 3000 votes outstanding in Westmoreland
if the % by county hold that’s
4495 Lamb / 5005 Saccone
Lamb Currently has a 900 vote lead. Damn it’s going to be close.
@30 but maybe it comes down to Washington County, where most of the vote is not in yet (only 90%)….Less Red than Westmoreland where 99% is in.
PA-18, D-49.8%, R-49.6%, 98% counted. Lamb’s lead has shrunk to 585 votes. There’s no mandatory recount in PA district races; someone would have to petition for one.
CNN tagline: “Trump is pleasantly surprised by the narrow margin.” Yeah, I’ll bet he is.
No sooner did I put that up that Westmoreland went up to 99% in and Lamb is still up by about 900.
The remaining ballots in Washington County are going to have to break huge for Saccone to overtake the remaining votes in Allegheny.
Still waiting. But unless those numbers move a lot that’s only 175-200 votes Saccone will cut the lead.
Too close to call
only 585 now.
Lamb is underperforming where @23 estimated he needed to be in all three counties still with votes to count.
Interesting
@34 You can already hear the squawks about “fraud” and “illegals voting,” can’t you?
Lamb’s lead has expanded from 585 to 700, still with 98% counted. Realistically, that’s too much to make up in a recount. But don’t know how many absentee and provisional ballots are out there.
Lamb – 107,471
Saccone – 106,771
Lead up to 700 now.
No, (un)sp is dead.
@35 let’s hope that isn’t the case.
I hate to say it, but I don’t trust voting machines anyways.
Back up to about 700.
Still holding. Looking at Washington, 93% counted and 53% going to Saccone, with what’s remaining he’s going to cut 300-500 off the lead. There should be less than 1,000 votes left in Westmoreland which points to cutting it another 150 or so.
Saccone is going to need to win the last 1% in Alegheny (where he’s getting 42.4% so far) to make it happen. Doable.
CNN is reporting 3700 uncounted ballots in Alegheny that are uncounted. Napkin math that’s should add 800 or so to the Lamb lead.
By the way, the NCAA tournament Kind of Started tonight.
Lamb’s lead has expanded from 700 to 775.
1300 votes to the Libertarian looks like it could be the difference.
Site I link is now showing Allegheny 100%
One take away should be that every damn vote counts. There really is no excuse for a person that is legally eligible to vote, not to vote.
@36 I’m sure they are already ramping up with their bleatings about that. Whatever happened to Trump’s voting commission? Oh yeah, disbanded: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-commission.html
@45 Allegheny County is still counting absentee ballots, according to CNN.
95 votes and the remaining votes left are all from the most Red County…looks like Lamb loses.
With 99% counted, Lamb now leads by 95 votes. That’s within recount range. This election is very much in play.
Lamb – 109,945
Saccone – 109,850
statistical tie.. Lamb will prevail with absentees but by how much?
@50 I don’t know what the absentee situation is. How many are there? How many have been counted? where are they? Who do they favor?
CNN just posted that Republicans “see GOP strength in absentee ballots as a hopeful sign.” Could be. We just saw most of a 775-vote lead disappear. That’s probably absentees.
Lamb’s lead now back up to 847. That could be absentees, too.
Wonder why the vote count is not shown in Westmoreland County from the link I provided. ??
And why is that the most red country is the last to report, after being closer to 100% than Washington County, the lesser red county?
PA source is now reporting 3750 absentees left to count in Allegheny and 3200 in all the rest.
With everything now reading 100% it’s 95 votes.
Again, based on percentages already reported and generously givng Saccone 58% of the red county absentees which is more than in any county individually so far (tiny Greene was 57.8) that’s a 500 vote gain in Alegheny for Lamb and a 500 vote gain in the rest to Saccone.
So there we are.
now lamb leads by 847 votes?
Well that’s interesting. CNN posted all counties at 100% and the 95 vote margin.
Then they pulled it back, Westmoreland back to 99% and 847 to Lamb.
That 1% should be only about 700 votes.
Weird
A Pittsburgh TV station has the same vote totals as CNN.
Lamb (D) – 111,875
Saccone (R) – 111,028
Miller (L) – 1,351
591 of 597 precincts counted, but some absentees won’t be counted until midnight EDT (9:00 PDT).
CNN says Washington County will count 1,195 absentee ballots tomorrow.
The site I linked, says 591 of 593 precincts….I wonder who is right and who is wrong.
You think if Lamb wins Trump will come out and say that the Republican was a bad candidate?
@58 What candidate? What election? It was a huuuuge victory! We almost won!
@59 hahaha
@57 That was a Pittsburgh TV station.
OK
Now I’m seeing that Allegheny absentees are included in the now 847 vote lead and Allegheny is finished.
The same mathmatician/pollster I got @23 from thinks that’s enough because of how much Saccone will need to outperform his election night results among the remaining precincts and absentees outstanding.
But he doesn’t sound “guaranteed against the spread pick of the week” confident about that.
ok, I have to go to bed….Go Lambs!
Pittsburgh Gazette says Lamb’s late surge was Allegheny County absentees.
@62 I think there is something that smells fishy in Westmoreland County.
Nate Cohn @ New York Times is also on Twitter saying those 3200 absentee ballots in Greeene, WA, Westmoreland reported is the number requested/mailed not the number returned.
So that’s something.
Here’s the Department of State website. I assume this is where all the news media are getting the numbers they’re reporting.
http://www.electionreturns.pa......IsActive=1
This website says 591 of 593 precincts have reported.
Lamb 111,875
Saccone 111,028
Miller 1,351
Apparently these are official numbers. Don’t know how often they update.
CNN headline: “It’s down to absentee ballots”
Five-Thirty-Eight’s Harry Enten says the Allegheny County absentees broke for Lamb, but Allegheny is more Democratic than the rest of the district, but also says there aren’t enough ballots left for Saccone to make up his deficit.
Meanwhile, Washington County says it will count its absentees tonight because of the close race, but it will take several hours because they’re hand counting them.
@66 yeah, but say all 3200 come back and 60% go to Republican and 40% go to Dem…thats 1920 and 1280 respectively, only a difference of 640….so I think the verdict will be the remaining vote in Westmoreland…..am I right about the 640 votes?
@68 “Just hundreds of votes seperate…”
Well yes, over 800 is “just hundreds” but it downplays that it’s closer to 1000 than 500.
GOP is gripping tonight and probably not a few operatives are looking to get some absentee ballots returned after the deadline included and some Allegheny excluded.
How many votes do you think that are remaining in Westmoreland? Not percent but votes?
Recounts apply only to “state-wide” contests.
Yuuuugge humiliation for that “unpopular preznit”…
Shit I have to go to bed….again, Westmoreland County – something fishy there!
That’s always a winning argument….
Saccone, “And I’ll tell you again, my wife and I saw it today (our opponents) have a hatred for God!”
So they voted for a Catholic school boy. Whore of Babylon or something.
If your God is all knowing and All the Glory to God, what does it say about you that he allowed your enemies to defeat you, oh pious man of God?
@74 they have a hatred of everything else, including the Pope.
“GOP candidate Rick Saccone, addressing supporters with the race still too close to call, said ‘We are still fighting the fight. It’s not over yet.’ He told them, ‘We’re not giving up’ tonight. Campaign consultant Bob Branstetter told CNN’s Alexander Marquardt they won’t concede tonight. He said even if Washington County absentees come in, plus other areas, there are still provisional ballots and military absentees. He said they are talking with legal counsel and weighing options, including petitions to recount.” (Source: CNN)
Roger Rabbit Commentary: That doesn’t sound like a victory speech. It doesn’t even sound half-assed hopeful. At this point I’ll stick my neck out and call it. Grasping at straws is what people do when they realize they lost. Saccone just told us, in so many words, he knows he lost.
@70 Gripping or griping? What are they gripping? Each other’s dicks? I’m not alleging they are, just speculating, that’s all. Like Alex Jones does when he doesn’t know something, which in his case, is pretty much all the time.
Yeah, the reported 2 precincts in Westmoreland that still haven’t reported? Aparently they are the only places left in PA with no phones or Internet. It’s not Amish country so what? Your polling places closed almost four hours ago.
This is what makes conspiracies flower.
@72 Automatic recounts, you mean. Saccone can request one. As noted @76, he’s already exploring that option.
Win or lose, it is still a 20 point swing in only 16 months among a population of voters that master political analysts like Sr. Amn. Shortbus assures us are all down with working class white nationalism and who are bored with investigating Republican treason.
Yup.
#FREECARTERPAGE!
@78 The Amish don’t vote anyway. Not in significant numbers.
@77
It’s an old dugout term. When you start to lose it at the plate you’re gripping. Once you start Gripping pulling out of a slump seems impossible.
@82 Okay. The griping won’t be far behind. By tomorrow Trump will be saying illegals stole the election.
@80 I called it @76. I think we won.
CNN has some new numbers; they’re ahead of the Department of State website.
Lamb – 113,111
Saccone – 112,532
That’s a lead of 579. Probably too much to make up from Washington County’s 1,195 absentees. State has now updated to these numbers.
Where are the Russian election hackers when Trump needs them? It seems Putin’s boys aren’t very dependable.
That last update was the 2 remaining precincts.
Last one for the night. Westmoreland County turned out 60% of 2016 voter numbers. Allgheny County turned out 7% more for this election than ’16. So that is also likely your difference maker.
With Westmoreland now reporting 100% it’s 579 votes. It is still possible that absentees could break for Saccone and push him over.
But those 3200 absentee ballots mailed outside of Allegheny are going to have to come back 68-69% for the Saccone. Expect a lot of lawsuit threatening by PA-GOP in the coming days.
@87 Dividing the total vote by 593 precincts gives an average of about 380 votes per precinct. So Westmoreland County’s last 2 precincts broke about 2-1 for Saccone. That’s typical of the county as a whole; Trump won 65% there. But even if the absentees in Washington County, where Trump won 60%, break similarly, it won’t be enough. He’d be about 175 short. A recount probably wouldn’t give him that many, and could even go the other way.
@85
I haven’t seen that Greene and Westmoreland have reported their absentee counts but only Washington said they were waiting until tomorrow. If it really is only Washington it should be done.
Are those WA County absentees going to go 1159 Saccone/37 Lamb?
Not election news but very sad: Stephen Hawking passed away tonight. One of the greatest minds in the last 50 years: https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/health/stephen-hawking-dead/index.html
I’ve read some Hawking beyond “A Brief History Of Time” and understood some of it.
Farewell.
@89 Washington County was going to count tomorrow, but said they’re counting tonight because of the close race, but will take several hours.
@90 Yes, a terrific loss for the portion of humanity that still believes in science and gives half a damn about the fate of this planet.
@93
We have lost our generation’s Einstein. Hawking had a way of taking incredibly complex theories and, for lack of a better description, “seeing” how they were intertwined and related, yet could explain them in a way that people could understand.
I certainly believe in science, I just hope the people in charge or the religious zealots don’t ruin for the rest of us.
@94 Hawking wouldn’t agree with you that he was an Einstein. But he made substantial contributions to our understanding of black holes and popularized complex science by describing it in ways ordinary people could understand. No mean feat by itself.
Conor Lamb just declared victory. I called it some time ago.
But CNN says, “Lamb holds a lead of 579 votes, with 1,398 absentee votes still outstanding. … CNN is not projecting a winner at this point, and GOP candidate Rick Saccone is not conceding it yet either.”
However, CNN also says, “CNN’s John King has analyzed the numbers and thinks that while it’s possible Republican Rick Saccone could still pull it off in Pennsylvania, he wouldn’t bet on it. ‘Mathematically possible but unlikely,’ King told CNN’s Don Lemon. Then he broke it down and found that even if Rick Saccone got 70% of the remaining ballots and absentee ballots — which is unlikely — he’d still come up short by just a handful of votes.”
Of course, if he gets within a “handful,” then there’s a chance a recount might change the result. But he probably wouldn’t pick up more than 50-80 votes from a recount — on a good day.
The correct move now is for Dems everywhere to declare the win, pop corks, release balloons, etc. This will turn into a court fight over recounts. The child molesting, hillbilly traitors will not concede the loss, and if they can’t manipulate the absentee counts, they will immediately begin challenging the results when they are made official. Gotta get ahead of it and push the media narrative that corrupt wife beating racists are fighting to steal democracy again. Voters head to the polls again in just eight months.
Roypublicans are going to freak out over this. A few more cockroaches will decline to run in the fall, citing the need to spend more time with family – beating them up apparently. But the right media narrative helps ensure that the Roypublicans who file for their seats are more like Saccone and Roy Moore. This is a huge defeat for Republicans. They must be made to feel it in every district and in every filthy trailer park.
And let’s just be crystal clear about one thing: in any district that is over 95% white, has a built in 20 point Roypublican lean, and is dotted with filthy trailer parks all the way to the horizon, a member like Connor Lamb who never mentions President PornFucker, and rails against CA liberals is not only just fine, he’s perfect!
More blue sky thanks to Connor Lamb and PA 18:
Trump-Ryan’s caucus will bail on him at this point and focus exclusively on protecting their seats. When they wake up and see an all white, 20 point lean R district flipped by a nobody with no money and no DCCC support they will abandon any legislative agenda and focus on getting back to their districts and filling their mouths with dick. Even Senate Roypublicans are going to notice the threat. No wall. No entitlement reforms. Quick fix for ACA and their fucked up tax reform will now be bought with concessions to Senate Dems.
Game? Gosh, I never would have guessed all that fervent, white nationalism was nothing more than a “game” to its
griftersleaders. Who will Roypublicans turn to now to stir up activist discontent among its racist base for the mid terms?Lamb’s lead expanded a bit overnight, from 579 to 621:
Lamb: 113,720
Saccone: 113,079
NRCC says it’s weighing a recount, but this looks out of reach to me. It’s unlikely a recount could overcome this large a gap.
No doubt Trump will declare a yuuuuuge victory because the Republican almost won.
In a Republican-gerrymandered district drawn to ensure a safe Republican seat.
Meanwhile, religious conservatives are reacting to Stephen Hawking’s death by snarling, “Let him burn in Hell!”
https://www.albawaba.com/loop/let-him-burn-hell-religious-conservatives-react-stephen-hawkings-death-1102552
One more reason to avoid these people like the plague, except Puddy, of course. He’s our pet religious conservative, and these comment threads are his litter box.
Here ya go … arming teachers to keep students safe:
“A teacher accidentally discharged a firearm while teaching a public safety class, injuring one student at a Northern California school on Tuesday, police said.”
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/us/california-teacher-fires-gun/index.html
Republicans being Republicans.
“A Republican candidate for the Maine legislature apologized after attacking two students who survived the Parkland high school massacre, calling one a ‘skinhead lesbian’ and another a ‘bald-faced liar.’ … In another tweet, Gibson claimed Gonzalez should not be called a ‘survivor’ because she was ‘in a completely different part of the school’ during the shooting.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/leslie-gibson-gop-maine-parkland-survivor-twitter-attack_us_5aa8c26be4b001c8bf151517
This was so bad the guy was forced to apologize even though he’s running unopposed to replace a term-limited legislator. Even his own party piled on him. Now that’s baaad.