Please join us this evening for a State of the Union edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Normally, we start at 8:00pm…but show up early for the 6:00pm (PDT) start of Obama’s final address.
Note: We’ll have sound and video for the State of the Union address. But the pub has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background noises of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring stuff to stream the audio. The pub has free wifi available.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. The Kent chapter meets on Thursday. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.
There are 188 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or go out and start—a chapter near you.
“I think it’s a question,” Ms. McCaskill said of Mr. Cruz’s eligibility. “When Laurence Tribe says it’s a question, it’s a question.”
Nothing wrong with asking questions. Voters deserve to know.
What do you think Roger?
http://www.afr.com/markets/rbs.....111-gm3ssa
Eventually loses incurred in 2008 came back, so why not once again can people rebound from a big loss. But why not gamble a little, and try to time it now and get out?
oh, I forgot – yo, yo, yo, yo, where the womenz at? I need to impregnate one of them whitie womenz.
Yo, Yo, Yo, where the German Womenz at?
They white?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141311634
Puddy doesn’t condone the actions from the DUmmies link already teabagged again @4 left, Puddy wonders about already teabagged again. The gangs of muslims raped 14 and 15 year old German girls. They encircled them and then attacked them. Apparently already teabagged again worries about those broken windows and not the virginity of those teenaged girls.
Figgers!
He has a point.
But, but, she’s got binders full of baby parts!
@5 exactly the response I wanted.
Teabagged Again doesn’t condone what happen in Bsltimore, nor do I appreciate them being called thugs, similar to you logic it is understandable why they rioted in Baltimore. But to Puffy only the right wing extremists are allowed to be unruly and terroristic. Under Puffy’s rules – only they are the righteous and excusable. Only they can offer apologies that are to be accepted.
F you asshole.
@8,
Well, duh.
IOKIYAR
It’s not as if modern conservatives have a problem with the armed assault, takeover, occupation, and vandalism of public facilities when the perps are conservative. Race is certainly a part of this hypocrisy. But ideology and politics are at least as important.
Old news.
Change comes from within. Starts with churning the ranks of law enforcement agencies nationwide who perpetrate this double standard. We’d all do ourselves a big favor if we stopped playing along with the “crime wave” lies. They don’t just juke the stats. They make ’em up. We don’t need more police. We need fewer police. Our streets will be safer with fewer police.
@2 A Wall Street wag once famously observed that “the world doesn’t end all that over.” And unless it does, UBS’s predictions of a market cataclysm will not come to pass. Listening to these doomsayers almost always is very bad for your financial health. And anyway, if you liquidate your investments, what will you do with the cash? Put it in a failing bank? Be aware that most of the people predicting the end of the world are trying to sell gold and silver, which are lousy investments 95% of the time.
What’s actually happening here is the Federal Reserve’s twin policies of QE (quantitative easing) and ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) inflated the values of stocks and other assets. The Fed ended QE in 2014 and began raising interest rates last month. It’s only natural that inflated stock prices would return to normal values after the cause of the inflation was removed.
That’s not all. Oil prices are falling, and that’s pulling down the stock markets (not the other way around). In addition, China has exploited export manufacturing about all it can, and now has to transform its economy to consumption, and the transition isn’t going all that smoothly. China’s slowing economy and currency devaluations also are pulling down global financial markets. Last August’s correction was triggered by a surprise currency devaluation by China, and this week’s correction was triggered by another surprise currency devaluation by China a couple weeks ago.
Finally, the global slowdown is causing corporate earnings to decline, and stock values tend to follow earnings.
Everything that’s happening in the stock market right now is perfectly rational. The causes are understandable, and I’ve explained them above. This is not a panic-driven market in freefall. It’s a controlled descent as the market adjusts stock values to reflect evolving fundamentals. Some of the inflated gains of 2010-2014 may be disappearing for good, but I don’t really care very much what my stocks are worth on paper, because I’m after the dividend income, which isn’t affected by a general lowering of stock prices. What the latter actually does is allow me to buy dividend income at lower cost, so I see events like this as a good thing for my investing goals. I would rather invest in a cheap market than an expensive market.
Warren Buffett, by the way, agrees with this. He has stated that if his stocks never went up, he would be happy. I’ve just explained (clearly, I hope) why he feels that way.
I haven’t sold a single share of stock in the last month. I use events like this to buy more shares with my accumulated dividends, and to make minor portfolio adjustments. For example, if I want to get rid of Stock X and buy more Stock Y, by selling X and buying Y while the prices of both are down, I can execute the swap and pay less tax on the gain from X. If I were to make such swaps when the market is higher, it would cost me more in capital gains taxes.
Does this answer your question?
@2 “But why not gamble a little, and try to time it now and get out?”
Because …
(1) Market timing is impossible. No one can do it, not even the pros who manage billions of dollars, armed with their supercomputers, analysts with genius IQs, and trading algorithms. And if they can’t do it, you certainly can’t.
(2) Numerous studies have revealed that most stock market gains are earned in just a handful of trading days. For example, over a 10-year period, 10 trading days may account for 80% of the gains. These events occur with warning and can’t be logically deduced. If you try to sit out market declines by pulling out of the market, you run the risk of not being in the market when these gains occur. Experts unanimously advise staying in the market at all times and riding out its swings. That’s why, and that’s what I do. Trying to time the market can be extremely self-destructive. Like putting all your money into lottery tickets, the huge risk isn’t worth the unlikely reward.
(3) However, if you insist on gambling away your money, then buy a bunch of Powerball tickets for that $1.5 billion jackpot, and cross your fingers and hope you don’t win, because your life will be miserable if you do. (For the record, I couldn’t resist squandering $2 on a Powerball ticket, but I bought only one ticket to minimize my inevitable loss.) Investing should never e thought of as gambling, and if you think of it that way, you’re probably not investing correctly. The right way to invest is by making it as much of a mathematical sure thing as possible. Some people describe it as hitting singles instead of swinging for the fences. Either put your money in a market-tracking ETF, or pick high-quality stocks that can be counted on to steadily grow their earnings and raise their dividends. The only investing strategy you need, and the only one that consistently works in all market conditions, is to play the compounding game. Your investing should look like this: $1 x 1.05% x 1.05% x 1.05% …
Does this answer your question?
DAYUM you are a moron already teabagged again. Puddy tells you Puddy doesn’t condone them destroying property and what does this useless piece of protoplasm write?
Puddy – Puddy doesn’t condone the actions from the DUmmies link already teabagged again @4 left
already teabagged again – But to Puffy only the right wing extremists are allowed to be unruly and terroristic.
Another case of reading IS NOT fundamental for a left wrong moron! Another case of hey those young girls deserved to be raped per already teabagged again! And this is what is called left wrong DUMMOCRETIN libtard thought!
Stay stooooooooooopid already teabagged again. You perfected it.
@5 Were these rapists Muslim refugees?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/re.....gang-rape/
They’re more likely to be your relatives. It would be interesting to know what genome sequencing might reveal. They’re probably in your family tree at some point in time.
@7 It’s about time those two losers got sent to the locker room.
@12 “Puddy tells you Puddy doesn’t condone them destroying property and what does this useless piece of protoplasm write? Puddy – Puddy doesn’t condone the actions from the DUmmies link already teabagged again @4 left”
Given all the shit you do condone, this gets you nothing from us.
O.k., this really bothers me. Hillary has been consulting with, and getting kudos from, war criminal Henry Kissinger. It bothers for for the obvious, but also because this will damage her and she should have known better. And now I doubt her judgement.
Oh R senile,
In the 4th Qtr of 2015, Janet Yellin signaled what R senile?
Why does it seem 2% GDP is now the new normal under Obummer and how did the markets react R senile?
And after her signalling “what”, the market did what R senile?
Then when the Chinese economy was reported weak what did the markets do R senile?
GDP was what in the 3rd Qtr R senile?
How far down was it from the 2nd Qtr R senile?
The markets reported first time purchasers of houses were at a 30 year low under Obummer and the markets did what R senile?
When the rest of the world economy was tanking like Obummer’s America what did the market do R senile?
The markets declined in December so what did that signal R senile?
When oil stock EPS was forecasted to be much lower what did the markets do R senile?
And you screamed what to Puddy last week with all that knowledge right there for anyone to glean? The indicators were all there for last week’s meltdown. Puddy just got out earlier than others did and lost 3 weeks of “small profits” because the market went down in December 2015!
Sux to be R senile! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
BTW even if the market goes up 200 points Puddy will be on the sidelines. Not even worried because it’s too volatile right now!
@16 Then vote for Bernie. He’s looking more like a plausible nominee every day. But if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, we’ll all have to vote for her, because we sure as hell won’t be able to vote for the Republican nominee, regardless of which of their turkeys the rubes choose to represent them.
@17 Do what you want with your money. I answered someone else’s question. I don’t give a fuck what happens to you or your money. It doesn’t surprise me a bit that someone as stupid as you would try to time the market. How many Powerball tickets did you buy?
war criminal Henry Kissinger?
Convicted of what dunceman? To be a criminal you need a conviction. Provide the evidence!
@17 Do what you want with your money. I answered someone else’s question.
Yeah, poorly answered the question with all those market indicators out there for anyone erudite enough to read those tea leaves!
Puddy loves smacking the silly ASS of R senile!
See ya!
@19 It always surprises me you would engage with somebody who spouts such inane drivel. (Is that redundant?) Why encourage him? You seem smarter than that.
It amazing Puddy the useless commentary from the dunceman@22!
You really live up to the name God directed you to use here on HA DUMMOCRETINS “dunceman”.
Carry on!
Lots of news headlines today.
1. Iran has seized two U.S. Navy boats and their crews in the Persian Gulf.
2. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Florida’s death penalty system unconstitutional today.
3. Bernie Sanders now leads Hillary Clinton by 14 points in New Hampshire, with Sanders ahead in every major voting bloc.
4. An unidentified congressman, we can assume a Republican, has given Kim Davis tickets to attend the State of the Union. (I think this is a golden opportunity for President Obama to ask her to stand up, and then explain that allowing public officials’ personal opinions to supersede the rule of law would lead to chaos.)
5. In Ohio, a Responsible Gun Owner (TM; pat. pend.) killed his 14-year-old son thinking he was an intruder.
@22 I’m not engaging with him. I’m kicking his balls.
@21 He asked for my advice. He didn’t ask for your advice. That speaks for itself. See #25 if you need interpretation.
@25,
When R senile gets the S M A C K D O W N, R senile doubles down. Waytogo libtardo!
BTW you delivered crummy advice? Yes your honor the dumb senile wabbit did! Where do you get your investment advice from senile bunny? Or is it pulled from you ASS like most of your HA DUMMOCRETIN comments?
Remember Puddy lost NOTHING last week. So that supposed ball kicking missed by a COUNTRY MILE!
Suck on that senile one!
@27 “When R senile gets the S M A C K D O W N”
In your dreams … your problem is you’re too fucking stupid to know when you’ve been owned. Go read #25 again.
Isn’t it great to see cop hater Tarantino get the DGA snub?
P R I C E L E S S!
Once again Heilary is getting bad advice… http://www.desmoinesregister.c...../78656396/
The Rafael Cruz Birfer Chorus has gained another powerful voice!
“However we feel about allowing naturalized immigrants to reach for the stars, the Constitution must be amended before one of them can attain the office of president. Congress simply does not have the power to convert someone born outside the United States into a natural-born citizen.”
R senile,
You can tout #25 all you want. #17 is all anyone needs to read. You didn’t bring any of those items to the forefront answering already teabagged again question!
Sux to be senile, R senile! Just like that comedy fart you left yesterday on Heilary and her original attack on Obummer being an American citizen! WA Post delivered that S M A C K D O W N!
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Wow
DUMMOCRETINS must fear the Ted Cruz candidacy to be on this Trump anti-Cruz bandwagon!
In the face of his mounting Constitutional legal crisis, multitudes of Rafael Cruz’ acquaintances, former roommates and classmates, friends, colleagues in the Senate and in the Latino community are rushing to his aid.
(Crickets)
Here is an “originalist” of some distinction (clerked for Scalia) who supports Rafael Cruz’ legal claims to “natural born” citizenship, but also admits that it is far from “settled law” and not at all an easy question to answer.
Nevertheless, it’s “impolite” to ask ;-)
The facts as we know them today are these:
-Rafael Cruz was born in another country.
-The mother of Rafael Cruz is documented to have been a “natural born” U.S. citizen at the time of his birth in another country.
-Baring any other as yet unknown revelations, Rafael Cruz is a legal citizen of the United States at the time of his birth, by virtue of his mothers’ citizenship.
-Whether or not Rafael Cruz is a U.S. citizen “natural born” is dependent entirely upon interpretation of the language used in Article II, section 1, clause 5 of the Constitution which states:
“No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”
-It is being argued that based upon the general understanding of English common law terms in use by the framers, the term “natural born Citizen” refers to “citizens born on English territory”, and that the framers adopted that use.
-The record of debate of the first U.S. naturalization statute reveals that Congressmen engaged in the debate were aware that the offspring of U.S. citizens born abroad were not automatically (natural born) U.S. citizens under the terms of the Constitution and the statute needed to include provision to “naturalize” them. It did so.
-That interpretation would confer upon Rafael Cruz and any similarly situated person the status of “naturalized citizen”, the status conferred by Congressional statute, making him ineligible to legally serve as President.
Other questions still remain, in particular with concern to the citizenship status of his mother at the time his parents were living and operating a business abroad.
@12. I can picture you sitting at a chair with your hands tied behind your back. And you have a bib on. In front of you is a pie. At the sound of someone saying “go” you lean forward bending your head down, shoving your face in the pie filled with your own shit. You racially eat it up in what appears to be suprsonic speed. As you finish you back away from the pie looking upward with the dumbest look on your face, as if you are Forest Gump. After seconds of noticing that everyone is staring at you in disgust and amazement you make a little shit eating grin. But then you realize you just ate shit and so you yell out “Benghazi” three times.
You see if some senile people just paid attention… http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL
The McClellan Volume Summation Index measures advancing and declining volume on the NYSE. During the last month, approximately 21.45% more of each day’s volume has traded in declining issues than in advancing issues, pushing this indicator towards the lower end of its range for the last two years.
1 month ago Extreme Fear was 25!
Too bad R senile is clueless as evah!
Did someone fart @37?
Peee Uuuu someone did!
@32 Your mother dropped you on your head and it made you crazy. Ask someone to hit you with a bat so you can think straight again.
Roger you have to admit that is some pretty funny shot @17. I hope it made you laugh, at least.
Ape – if you take that as me agreeing with you, you are more stupid than I thought. Figured I say that before you eat another one of those pies.
@37 Hilarious!
@41 It was okay, but #37 is much better. The stuff Puddy says isn’t really funny because he means it seriously, which takes the comedy out of it.
Since Facebook head Mark Zuckerberg is a DUMMOCRETIN through and through, it would naturally carry over that most of his followers are DUMMOCRETINS.
Well remember when R senile posted the anti-vaxxers were like Republicans and Puddy delivered that fact based S M A C K D O W N? Well here we go again with anti-vaxxing DUMMOCRETINS comments. Isn’t Mississippi the state with the highest vaccination rates in America R senile? http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/1.....=obnetwork
DAYUM what an R idiot senile moron!
@40
Read #17 again.
That would be pretty funny if Obama asked Kim Davis to stand up. I wish he would do it. It would be hilarious!
@41,
U must be farting at a DUMMOCRETIN. DUMMOCRETIN put forth evolution, u know, coming from APES! Which simian do you come from?
Gorilla
Chimpanzee – R senile and the clueless crazed databaze cretin
Gibbon
Baboon
Orangutan
Spider Monkey – Always a favorite’
Hmmm…?
Puddy was created in the image of Adam who was created in the image of God!
Sux to be you apeman gorilla!
@38 Tell someone who cares. I’m watching the stocks I want to buy get cheaper. That’s the only statistic worth my time. When you think too much, you’re more likely to fuck up.
People should not watch CNBC. They should not read Money magazine or Investors Business Daily. They should park their money in a market-tracking ETF or a reasonable number of high quality dividend stocks, then read their brokerage statements once a month, and tinker with their portfolios once a year.
Stock investing is very simple. If you overthink it, you’ll fuck up. Look what happened to the Nobel Prize-winning economists who founded Long Term Capital Management, and learn from it. Do not try to turn something that’s simple into something that’s complicated. That never works.
Note: Even though this comment is superficially a response to a Puddy comment, these words of advice are meant for my friends. Puddy is too stupid to learn anything from me or anyone else, and I wouldn’t waste my time trying to educate him. He’s uneducable. Fuck him, I’ll have no sympathy for him when he has to eat shit.
Roger you have to admit that is some pretty funny shot @17. I hope it made you laugh, at least.
So drag your teabag across his face moron @41 thought investment FACTS were funny? Losing money in the stock market is funny?
Really? When all those indicators were front and center the teabagged gorilla evolved moron thinks losing money on wall street is funny? Wow! This moron is worse off than anyone could ever imagine!
@45 I can’t read it “again,” because I never read it a first time. I scrolled over that one, barely glanced at it. You have nothing to say, moron.
Why not buy Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Williams Companies (WMB), which have plummeted 44% and 34%, respectively just since the beginning of the year R senile @48?
Why not buy Chipotle (CMG), the DUMMOCRETIN king of food poisoning R senile? Remember the CEO of Chipotle is big time Heilary loving DUMMOCRETIN and Heilary had her picture taken there as a token look at me in a fast food restaurant! They should be right up your alley with the poison you leave in every thread every day!
Of course the silly R senile missed this nugget… http://asia.nikkei.com/Busines.....uction-cut
Puddy calls it ijunk… http://www.urbandictionary.com.....term=ijunk
Puddy loves these comments…
“Last week’s selloff reflected fear more than fundamentals”
“The risk of a full-blown bear market remains low without a recession, which our economists see as unlikely.”
Said to keep the sheep investing to keep their fees flowing!
@46 I’m serious, I really think he should, and then hold her up as a shining example of how NOT to do a job, how NOT to treat your fellow citizens, how NOT to set an example. He also could use this opportunity to name all the GOP presidential candidates who advocate disobeying court orders when you disagree with them (e.g., Fuckabee; is lawyer and former SCOTUS law clerk Ted Cruz in this bucket, too?). If that were widely adopted it would end child support payments in the United States, among other consequences. He should point that out, too, and then let’s see how it sits with women voters.
Funniest comment of the day from R senile: Note: Even though this comment is superficially a response to a Puddy comment, these words of advice are meant for my friends. Puddy is too stupid to learn anything from me or anyone else, and I wouldn’t waste my time trying to educate him. He’s uneducable. Fuck him, I’ll have no sympathy for him when he has to eat shit.
NOTE:Oh R senile… Puddy didn’t lose anything in last week’s Obummer economy driven stock meltdown. So what does that say about your investment prowess?
uneducable?
W O R D!
@49 “Losing money in the stock market is funny?”
Yes, I’m smiling, because the stock market made me a millionaire and I don’t have to work anymore. It’s your own damn fault you lost money by following your own stupid advice. Now I’m laughing at you, moron.
So is R senile investing here? Just bought the first 4K TV last week. http://asia.nikkei.com/Busines.....bracing-4K
Hmmm…?
@54,
Once again R senile… Puddy didn’t lose money last week! Seems reading ain’t fundamental to you. You can’t be laughing at Puddy since Puddy not in the markets right now! You need Puddy to show up at a drunk libtard event so Mrs Puddy can tell you Puddy took his money out of the stock market in December? Since it’s after tax investments the tax burden is low for 2015 taxes April 15th!
D O H !
@51 “Why not buy Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Williams Companies (WMB), which have plummeted 44% and 34%, respectively just since the beginning of the year R senile @48?”
BUY Freeport? Are you fucking delusional? I should’ve sold it after the first dividend cut, but didn’t get around to dumping it until after they suspended the dividend altogether. Still, better late than never; the stock has fallen another 50% since I got out. Freeport is loaded with debt from their ill-advised purchase of oil assets at top prices just before crude crashed, and with oil, copper, and gold in freefall, it has nowhere to go but down. This company is heading for bankruptcy. FCX is worth $4.11 today; what do you think it’ll be worth when it files Chapter 11? I’ll probably own Freeport’s copper mines and oil wells again someday — after Exxon buys FCX’s smoldering ashes for 2 cents on the dollar. I still own XOM. Lots of it.
I see now why you lose money in the stock market. If you were a licensed broker, I’d report you for professional misconduct. Since you’re not, I’m going to file a police report accusing you of attempting to defraud HA readers by recommending they buy FCX stock.
I can’t comment on Williams Companies. I don’t own or follow that one.
Gotta love how Iran shoves the feckless Obummer around. Taking two of our boats and ten sailors just before Iran is certified as having met the nukular accord and get their $Billions back to fund more terrorism!
Yes YEs YES!
@53 “Puddy didn’t lose anything”
You didn’t make anything, either. Mattress investors end up with what they started with, nothing more.
@58 Do something about it, big mouth. Here’s a rifle and pair of boots. Take those Oregon patriots with you.
@57,
Puddy was joking R senile? Both of those companies are in free fall right now! Just like stocks!
Dick of Dicks Burgers died!
@59,
you’re forgetting about the effects of hyper-inflation brought on by President Obama’s reckless fiscal stimulus. Smart fellers like AAmon Bundy have their savings invested in MREs and cop-killer bullets.
No wonder the loon is freaking out and full of hate – Carson plunged 20% today in the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-3823.html
@42 Thanks. I’m thinking that a gig as a writer for SNL could be fun, even if I have to work for free, after I retire.
@49 I prefer to drag my bag across your face. And if it is you, or anyone like you, losing money in the stock market i do more than laugh, I become ecstatic! It’s like watching two robots have sex for Boob.
Hey, it was only drugs… http://www.progressivestoday.c.....mes-crack/
Didn’t R senile just claim not to trust CNBC? So don’t trust this report eh R senile? http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/12.....-alto.html
The stock market was up big today, and stock futures point to another big day tomorrow. Too bad for Puddy that he’s sitting it out.
@65 Being able to do what you want, and not having to get paid for it, is a very pleasant way to live. It’s sad that Puddy and other mattress investors will never know that feeling, because you can’t save your way to financial independence with a working man’s wages, and as we all know, Puddy still has to work. My Starbucks stock is worth 54 times what I paid for it; that’s how you get to do what you want.
@68 ?
@63 True. I forgot about the Great Obama Hyperinflation, maybe because I get senior bus fare now. Costs me only $1 to ride downtown. Used to be $2.25 or something like that. And I get a lot of free stuff.
@67 yeah it would be a lot better if he was running for president and talked about stabbing grandma before finding old Jesus.
Puffy you are complete scum of the earth. And that’s not even the worst part of you. You fucking loon.