Polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s hard not to be optimistic about Proposition 19 after a PPP poll has it ahead by a wide margin, 52% to 36%. This is after Survey USA had it ahead 50% to 40%.
Of course, there are still special interests and other political dinosaurs who will fight this initiative, but so far their efforts have been less than inspiring. And I’m not sure why anyone thought it was a good idea to start a No on Prop 19 Facebook page, as it’s already overrun with a fascinating mix of legalization supporters debunking the silly arguments and jokesters pretending to be clueless prohibitionists.
All that said, the voting in November won’t be done on the internet, so it’s best not to be too confident just yet.
UDPATE: Nate Silver coins a new phrase, the “Broadus Effect”, to describe a discrepancy he’s seeing with minority voters between automated polls and live operator polls on Prop 19.