A new WSJ/NBC poll (via Daily Kos) reinforces my sense that our nation’s profound regional divide is just one of the reasons why 2010 won’t be like 1994:
The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn’t lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it’s 44%-43%.
Heading into the 1994 election the Dems held roughly 59% of House seats in every region of the nation, and while they ended up losing big everywhere, they got walloped in the South. Heading into the 2010 election the Dems control the exact same number of seats they did heading into 1994, but the regional disparity is startling, ranging from 82% in the Northeast to 43% in the South.
Here in the “Far West” the Dems hold a pre-1994-like 63% majority, but it’s hard to imagine 1994-like results. Back then Washington alone flipped from 8-1 D to 7-2 R, but this time around WA-03 is the only truly promising GOP pickup opportunity in the state, and even that’s gotta be ranked a toss-up. I suppose Rep. Rick Larsen needs to look over his shoulders in WA-02, but by that measure so does Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in WA-08. So a safe prediction might be a net one-seat Republican pickup here in Washington compared to a six-seat pickup in 1994. Maybe two at the most. Maybe none.
As for the rest of the West, Republicans can maybe count on picking up a seat in Idaho, one or two in California, and two or three more throughout the rest of the region, while almost certainly losing their recent special election pickup in Hawaii. Maybe. That wouldn’t make for a good year for Democrats, but it’s far from an electoral repudiation.
Of course the poll analysis does include this regional caveat:
Many of the congressional districts Republicans are targeting outside of the South resemble some of those Southern districts they’re hoping to win back in November — where you have whiter and older voters.
True, but this just serves to further point out the difference between 1994 and 2010, at least here in this Washington, for back in 1994, two of the six WA seats the GOP picked up were WA-04 (Jay Inslee) and WA-05 (Speaker Tom Foley)… exactly the kinda older, whiter, more conservative districts the R’s are now targeting. But, you know, you can’t win back a seat you’ve never given up.
The point is, the 45-seat pickup necessary for a Republican takeover this time around is made all the more difficult by our current regional divide. The Republican’s generic advantage is staggering in the South, but there is so much less low-hanging Democratic fruit down in Dixie than there was 16 years ago, the R’s simply can’t take back Congress without a somewhat comparable national wave. And at the moment, I just don’t see that sort of wave reaching the Pacific.
Goldy–
More JIVE talkin’!!
jive (jv)
n.
Slang Deceptive, nonsensical, or glib talk: “the sexist, locker-room jive of men boasting and bonding” (Trip Gabriel).
v. jived, jiv·ing, jives
v.intr.
2. Slang
a. To talk nonsense; kid.
b. To talk or chat: “You just jive in one big group, putting each other on, trying to top the last line” (Time).
v.tr. Slang
To cajole or mislead.
adj. Slang
Misleading; phony.
Momentum is totally against Dummocrats less than 3 months from election. Did you factor that in? And BTW, that poll does not poll likely voters. That’s why it is inaccurate and has a horrible track record. But keep the faith despite the reality Goldy!
It’s a bunch of NBC Jive Talkin’!!!
There’s a number of other strikes against the GOP.
1) In 94 their brand wasn’t shattered as it is today.
2) They had competent leadership. Say what you will about Gingrich but they have nobody remotely comparable today.
3) They’re nominating nutjobs. Newt and Dole were smart. They recruited people who were right for the district… this year the GOP is putting up far-right radicals like Sharron Angle and Rand Paul who may lose seats the Democrats have no business winning in this environment.
If the GOP fails to take back the House and at least close to 50-50 in the Senate, their leaders should be charged with criminally bad politics.
Sure, the Republicans want to gain back the power they lost in 2006 and 2008. But the reasons really aren’t apparant until one examines the arguments Republicans like Rossi are making.
Rossi is arguing that the 2007-2010 Great Rescession is the all the doing of Jimmy Carter (CRA enactment way back in the 1970’s), and and Obama (“He’s been in office a WHOLE 19 months, and he hasn’t cured the economy yet!”)
I could go off on paragraphs about how patently ridiculous those claims were, and about how they manage to skip over 20 years of Republican presidents to blame two Democratic Presidents at each bookend, one of which hasn’t even completed a half-term.
But instead, let’s look at the Republican strategy behind these claims. They want more than power for the next two years. They want a “permanant Republican majority” for the next generation. The way to get it is to blame Democrats and the Obama for the economy, facts be damned, and once in office profit from the economic recovery which will take effect over the next two years – even if neither party takes any action at all.
So it was important to them to stall any economic improvement until after this year’s election, so they could blame the economic problems on the Democrats. Using the filibuster, they avoided or delayed meaningful health care reform, delayed extending unemployment benefits, etc. Anything to keep the economy down in the dumps as long as possible.
And if they can gain control of either house of Congress in 2010, they will argue that they alone caused any economic upswing over the next two years, and if they can then win the 2012 elections, the new Republican President will take credit for that recovery and any recovery therafter.
More importantly, they will use the new President and his policies as the new Reagan, the new standard-bearer to blame economic disaster on the Democrats, and economic recovery by the Republicans.
Of course, there’s that little inconvenience of George W. Bush being in charge when the economy hit rock bottom. But they have already sought to blightly dismiss that as irrelevent, by blaming a Democratic Congress (the Dems only had control of the House, not the Senate, and Pres. Bush would have vetoed any Democratic-sponsored legislation anyway). When that fails, they dismiss him as “not being a real Republican”, which is farcicle on it’s face.
Get this, Dan Quayle’s son is running for Congress in Arizona. He’s running in a district which is so safely Republican that it even went for McCain/Palin by 15 points in 2008. There’s no way a Republican can’t win this seat.
Except that he’s an even dimber bulb than his dad. He’s releasing a commercial calling Obama “the worst President ever”. Maybe that goes over big in his district, but obviously he doesn’t know history very well. Even if he wants to ignore George W. Bush’s presidency, how can he ignore Buchanan?
But that’s hardly the end of the entertainment. He used pseudonyms to post on sex-themed web sites, and even continued to do so after denying he was doing so to a reporter. And he released an ad proclaiming “family values” and showing him with his wife and two children – except that he doesn’t have any children, the two kids were “borrowed” from a relative for the photo shoot.
Oops, I forgot the link for #4, above.
Former VP’s son dubs Obama “worst president in history”
So here in Washington, would it be best in the primary for Murray to have a low turnout, and Rossi to best her by a few percentage points in the primary?
On the negative side, Rossi supporters would trumpet it as evidence that he really has a shot at upsetting Murray, which might encourage some grass-roots support and help his fundraising efforts. Of course, Cynical and Puddy would declare the election already over.
On the positive side, it might provide a rather needed shot-in-the-arm among Murray supporters. So many take her invulnerabilty as granted, they might otherwise forget to vote.
Derek beat me too it @ #2.
Add to #2: the country was a more conservative place in ’94, the Republican’s had a hell of a lot more cash, and ’94 was the culmination of a muti-year coordinated campaign.
And then there’s the CrAzY factor. Somehow, I doubt the people of Colorado are going to vote a guy who thinks Denver’s bike-share program is part of UN plot to take away our freedoms into the governors office.
I like Cynical here, Mr. Rasmussen-booster himself, telling us about why voter screens (and presumably sample composition and house effects) make a difference. Yes, they do (two links there).
Oh, and BTW, here’s something new…
Have no fear boys and girls.
King County Elections will save the day.
Remember: Vote early and often.
Have a Hope and Change day!
@1
Notice how cynical claims the poll is a product of NBC news yet ignores the Wall Street Journal? WSJ is hardly a leftist rag.
@4
Yep, and when he wins, he’ll be the gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats.
re 1: You are so used to judging the public by the standard of the naifs in the ‘bagger set. Do you think people have forgotten which party led us into this sinkhole?
@7
I’d like to see the chart that correlates Cynical’s appearance here at HA with the downturn of Obama’s approval rating. You know when those numbers go up, Cynical goes underground.
@1
If the Republican’s (or a third party for that matter) had good candidates, a strong muti-year coordinated campaign run by good people, and ideas that resonated with people, they could crush the Democrats right now. But, that’s just not out there.
And as far as I’m concerned, the Dem’s are fucking themselves over by not running a coordinated campaign that’s loud and proud. The should be showing what they’ve worked together to accomplish while running clips of some of the complete CrAzY that they’ve been up against.
@11
Shh… The baggers are doing more to help the Democrats than half the Democrats are.
There’s also the point that the Washington electorate is more diverse and younger than 1994, and is not going to react well to the right-wing crazy train. True, they’re not going to vote in the same numbers as in 2008, but they don’t have to in order to still have an impact on the election.
In short, the people who will show up in November 2010 aren’t the same people who showed up in November 1994.
re 15: Yes. I remember well that many young voters were extremely peeved that Jimmy Carter had not saved the world in four years.
They, along with the ‘bestest generation EVER’ proceeded to kick themselves in the ass for the next 2 generations by voting for Republicans.
I don’t think that will happen this time.
One of the problems faced by Republicans over the last two elections is the trend of young voters switching over to supporting Democrats.
They presumably feel it’ safe to ignore it, because (a) it doesn’t show up in Resumussen polls, because they can’t robo-call cell phons (and young people don’t have land lines); and (b) they presume young people won’t vote as a general rule.
But the vote-by-mail may be their undoing. Thousands of college students will be able to vote in their hometown elections even though they are away at college. And the prospect of a Tea Party victory, taking us back into the dark ages of pre-F.D.R. economics, is a motivating factor to get them to vote.
I can’t believe this could be true, but the GOP of Newt Gingrich was rational if you compare it to the present crop. These people are nuts. They are also leaderless and lack any cohesion of principle. They just scream “no” and use code words for their racism. The Teabaggers just may be the key to burying the Republican Party once and for all.
Cynny,
You’re a big fan of polls, even polls in August (spare me). So, what do you think of this finding on the NBC/WSJ poll?
“The two political parties fare little better. Thirty-three percent of the sample view the Democratic party positively while 44 percent view it negatively; the news is even worse for Republicans who are seen in a positive light by by 24 percent and a negative one by 46 percent — the worst showing ever for the GOP in the NBC/WSJ poll.”
13. Michael spews:
Big problem Michael.
The Dems are on the wrong side of Health Care, Bailouts, Deficit Spending, Government Growth and the Economy sucks.
What precisely would resonate as something they could be “proud” of without getting laughed off the stage??
Seriously…they are on the wrong side of virtually every issue.
19. proud leftist spews:
This poll is worthless. It fails to look at “likely voters”. Who gives a ratsass about what non-voters think. Know what I mean??
This is why Rasmussen excels.
They were Democrat-leaning in Massa2shits.
Rasmussen had it a dead-heat and the Republican Brown won by 5.
They were are a few points low in Virginia and NJ.
I get a real kick out of you guys blowing off Rasmussen when in reality they have been slightly off leaning Democrat.
Oh well, when you are getting kicked, reality is a tough thing to swallow isn’t it.
Cynny at 20
You have been living alone with your goat as your sole companion for too long. The Ds always have the edge on issues; the Rs survive as a political party only by lying, igniting fear, and playing upon prejudices.
Rasmussen used to fairly close to the mark in predicting electoral outcomes in Washington. Rasmussen’s refusal to use live callers and poll cell only voters and his tight voter screen have caused him to err toward the Republicans. That built in bias used to be only 2-3 points but over time it has grown. When I look at a Rasmussen poll for either WA or OR I automatically add 5-7 point to the Democratic candidate.
@20
Nah, they’re letting everyone else frame the issues and reacting to what’s been said and much of what’s being said is total crap. The D’s need to drive the conversation.
PS. It sounds like you think I’m out there supporting the Dem’s and saying they’re wonderful. I’m not.
Me:
The D’s are better than the R’s, but that’s a pretty low hurdle to jump.
Keep it up folks. The arrogant disdain for the feelings of dismay most Americans regard Obama Pelosi and Reid with could have interesting effects in November.
Your arrogance is the best advertisement swing voters have to vote Republican.
@25 “Your arrogance”
Project much, Lost?
@26
In 2006 I wondered what the righties would say, think, and feel, if the elections didn’t go the way they thought they would. In 2008 I wondered what the righties would say, think, and feel, if the elections didn’t go the way they thought they would. In 2010 I no longer give a shit.
Steve,
Please, just once, give me an example of my arrogance, narcissism and all the other idiotic names you love callling me.
Is it because I enjoy language and the range of nuance of which English is capable? Well Steve, I’m not going to apologize for that. Nor is it grounds for calling someone arrogant.
Is it because I’m sure of my political ideology? Well so are many with whom you agree. Surety and arrogance aren’t inextricably linked, idiot.
Why don’t you try understanding words before using them for a change?
Micheal,
Again, please keep up that attitude. Please. The country desperately needs a change from The Commisar who is our president and his henchmen Pelosi and Reid. Usually you’re a more reasonable voice of the left, but all the lefties showing hatred and disdain for the real America we can get will help restore this country to decent governance.
Steve,
Let me recap your response in advance, in a kindly effort to save you time.
Fuck you goatfucker! Narcissist! Asshole! Republicans suck and are rascist assholes who beat their wives/dogs/children!
There, isn’t that easier than typing your extremely intellectual thoughts yourself?
@28
Will do!
I always chuckle when I get called a leftist as I vote for Republicans somewhere between ¼ & ⅓ of the time and I post stuff like this:
Yeah, I’m quite the leftist.
When people spew nonsense like this
And this
it’s really hard to care what they think. And with the right spewing nonsense like this, it’s hard to see how they are going to win many votes.
Why should I give a flying fuck what someone who doesn’t think the 152970* people in the 5th CD who voted for Obama are “Real Americans” thinks?
*McCain got 171670 votes.
Hmm….
I wonder if the 116,120 people in the 5th CD that voted for Maria Cantwell in ’06 are Real Americans? That would be half the voters, btw. Mike McGavic pulled in 116,609 votes.
See, Real America only exists in your head. Half the voters in the Rock Ribbed Red 5th CD voted for that thieving, leftist, Maria Cantwell.
Michael,
You’re right, in part. After 80 years of the lunacy of leftist policies initiated by the traitor FDR we have changed somewhat.
Prior to FDR people expected to pay for their own food, housing and child rearing. They expected to succeed or fail based on the work and innovation they brought to their work. They expected to be left alone by the government absent criminal behavior.
Now they expect cradle to grave federal care for all of these things, paid for by a tiny percent at the top. They don’t mind having their email read or being treated like common criminals for boarding a plane or entering a court house.
Yes, we’ve changed. For the worse, and because of leftist policy.
23. Mary Plante spews:
Where did you get this analysis from?
The DailyKos???
They used Research 2000 which admittedly cooked the books FOR YEARS.
Hardly a source of objective analysis.
The fact is Rasmussen erred toward the Democrats in the Mass. Senate Race (toss-up and Brown(R) won by 5). They also underestimated the Republican margin in NJ and Virginia.
So the facts simply do not overcome your wishful thinking.
It may have a tiny effect in States where there are more cell only users…but not likely as significant as you GUESS or WISH it was.
Do you think ObaMao is not -16 in the Strong Approval Poll??
Do you think Americans by plurality approve of ObaMao??
Come on Mary.
Progressivism is D-E-A-D.
You are grasping at straws.
The Tea Party is prepared to descend on close races in various states with lots of ground troops.
Even college kids are beginning to understand ObaMao is a JIVEass.
Grow up and wise up Mary.
Have a great day!!
29. lostinaseaofblue spews:
Steve is a raging alcoholic lost. Seriously.
No one in their right mind would limit posts to goat-fornication and name calling without ever sharing anything of substance.
Mindless drivel is all steve can spew.
He is having a hardtime with the crashing & burning of ObaMaoism because his pretend Black Friend died.
Steve has a Tollycraft, is Kommadore of an all-white Yacht Klub and belongs to a vitually all-white Kountry Klub.
He loves Black folks from afar.
He’s scared of Puddy after calling him an OREO, Uncle Tom and other racist crap.
Alcoholic..for sure.
@29 “Fuck you goatfucker! Narcissist! Asshole! Republicans suck and are rascist assholes who beat their wives/dogs/children!”
Overreact much, Lost? Narcissist wingnuts tend to do that, you know?
Dumbfuck KLOWN sez, “Steve is a raging alcoholic lost. Seriously.”
heh- Project much, KLOWN?
Lost sez, “Please, just once, give me an example of my arrogance, narcissism and all the other idiotic names you love callling me.”
You must be fucking kidding me.
I think the dumbfuck KLOWN’s comments could use more CAPS and bold font.
What’s up with wingnut trolls and NPD?
From the Mayo Clinic,
Re 39
Odd. I should have said that most of those symptoms are classic signs of being a liberal.
Are you sure you looked up the correct mental disorder? It’s easy to skip from the L’s to the N’s without noticing it Steve.
To use a phrase one of the less rational libs…forget who….uses-
Project much, Steve?
Re 37
“You must be kidding.”
Nope. You keep calling me arrogant, baselessly. You keep calling me narcissistic on the evidence of a political opinions. I was just curious if you knew what these words meant or just heard them in conversation when the adults at your home were talking.
Lost @ 32 said: “Prior to FDR people expected to pay for their own food, housing and child rearing. They expected to succeed or fail based on the work and innovation they brought to their work. They expected to be left alone by the government absent criminal behavior.”
And they saw what it got them – years of rampant Republican financial speculation ended up in the Great Depression, putting a good number of those hard-working, thrifty, self-sufficient people on the streets trying to sell apples for a living – if they could get the apples.
F.D.R. put the lid on Wall Street speculation with an S.E.C. which had real teeth, re-opened failed banks by issuing a government guarantee only after rigerous accounting standards and capitalization requirements were met, provided federal jobs so the U.S. infrastructure could be built and families wouldn’t starve. The nation recovered, and in the process had an infrastructure which went a long way toward providing it with the incredible production power which supplied all of the Allied armies in WWII.
Is that the F.D.R. you hate?
@41 You weren’t kidding?? heh- You mean to say that you really don’t believe that you’re a smug, sanctimonious piece of shit?
“Project much, Steve?”
No. In denial much, Lost? I hear that it’s an NPD thing.
RHP
The credit FDR gets for saving the world is under serious question. WW2 played a big role in worldwide economic recovery, if you remember that little event.
Not all of what FDR did was unconstitutional, obviously.
Not all of what he did was ideologically tainted and calculated to ruin the fiber of the people of this nation, clearly.
But the net effect of his Orwellian ‘freedom from want’ and all the other crap straight from the Soviet handbook was to make small a great nation.
The net effect was to eliminate self reliance and self respect and replace them with a beggars perspective on the government.
The net effect was to eliminate the urge to work and save and invest so that you can enjoy the fruits of your labor and see your children do the same.
The net effect is what you see now. ‘Ask not what you can do for your government, but what your government can do for you.’
Steve-
Tell us about your all-white Yacht Klub and who you take out on that Tollycraft.
Come on Steve.
And who is in your foursome at Alderbrook.
Come on Steve.
Time to create another imaginary Black friend Steve…cuz the other one you exagerated died.
You are a complete phoney Steve.
Black Americans are merely a vote to perptuate your heavy-handed Big Guv’mint ideology you think you want.
What if they take away your Tollycraft and your Kountry Klub membership and worse yet..YOUR BAR TAB!?
@47 “YOUR BAR TAB”
I see that you’ve got the CAPS thing going for you again, but I think you could use some bold font.
– Posted from my big fucking yacht.
@46 If you’d have posted that in P-bonics in the third person with CAPS and bold font, that’d have been a real hoot!
@42
FDR did what TDR (R/TC*) tried to do and the Republicans kicked him out of the party for. There’s plenty of historical and philosophical precedent on the conservative side of things for FDR’s regulatory reforms to have been done by either party.
*True Conservative