Bold prediction…

Romney wins Utah, and big!

Other than that, early, early exit polls suggest we’re gonna have a barn burner tonight, possibly in both parties. (Actually, if the early exit rumors are real, it could be a very good night for Obama, except if anybody says that publicly and it’s not a good night for him, then folks are gonna start yelling fraud again.) Use this as an election night open thread for now, and then I’ll probably live blog for a while from DL, until I get bored with it.

UPDATE (3:41):
Oh what the hell, here are the totally unverified “first wave” (so don’t get your hopes up or down) Democratic numbers making the rounds in DC:

Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26
California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45
Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46
New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
Utah: Obama 61, Clinton 40

Matt and Tim explain the numbers over on OpenLeft.

UPDATE (4:10):
The polls closed in Georgia ten minutes ago, and CNN has already called it for Obama. No surprise there, no idea of how the delegates will be split, and no call on the Republican side, which is being reported as a three-way race. So far, consistent with the exit polling.


  1. 1

    Tlazolteotl spews:

    So you guys will be watching results over at the Montlake Ale House?

    Darn. I’d like to come, but I have to cook for my birds tonight.

  2. 2

    ArtFart spews:

    It might be pointed out that the major polls predicted an Obama win in California…subsequent to which the stock market took a major dive.

  3. 3

    YellowPup spews:

    Interesting segment on McCain on a recent Democracy Now! program:

    If he becomes the Republican front runner, we’ll probably see a lot more stuff like this, showing how reality and McCain’s reputation for straight talk and common sense are at odds. If he becomes the R nominee and Hillary Clinton the D, cover your head for the rain of crap that will fall during the summer and fall.

  4. 4


    ArtFart @2,

    I might be pointed out that the major polls were all over the fucking place in predicting California… subsequent to which it rained today.

  5. 6



    “It might be pointed out that the major polls predicted an Obama win in California”

    Ummm…not really. The two California polls released today:

    ARG: Clinton 49%, Obama 45%
    Zogby: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%

  6. 7

    DustinJames spews:

    Clinton is wiping the floor in early results among the contested primary states, and is *MUCH* tighter than I thought in Georgia. Obama better have a good showing in Cali or it’s going to be a BIG leg up for Clinton (who is my candidate of choice).

    Go Hillary!

  7. 9


    dustin…i can’t see obama getting past the hispanic firewall here in california. in fact, even here in very rural but VERY liberal humboldt county there are an awful lot of old guard democrats that are having a hard time voting for either one.they hate hillary and are very distrustful of obama [obama made the statement that he would give driver’s licenses to illegals….not exactly a winning point with californians, and it won’t get him the hispanic vote anyway]
    and like i said…there is that hispanic vote…..
    it sure will be interesting to watch though…..

  8. 12

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    McCain came from a distinguished military family:

    “John Sidney McCain, Sr. … was a U.S. Navy Admiral. …
    After the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Japan … McCain … commanded all land-based air operations supporting the Guadalcanal campaign … [and was] commander of a carrier group in … the Marianas campaign … [and] a fast carrier task force … [in] the Battle of Okinawa ….”

    “John Sidney McCain, Jr. … served in World War II [as a submarine commander] …. [and] spent the 1960s in a series of commands … becoming Commander in Chief, U.S. Naval Forces in Europe in 1967 and 1968. During the Vietnam War, Admiral McCain served as Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command from 1968 to 1972.”

    With this pedigree, you’d expect great things, but junior turned out to be a black sheep:

    “Following in the footsteps of his father and grandfather, McCain entered the United States Naval Academy. … [H]is career at the Naval Academy was … lackluster. He had … run-ins with the faculty and leadership; each year he was given over 100 demerits … earning him membership in the “Century Club”. … [O]ne classmate said that ‘being on liberty with John McCain was like being in a train wreck.’ … [H]e … graduated … fifth from the bottom in class rank, 894th out of 899.

    “McCain was then … a naval aviator in training at … Pensacola … Corpus Christi … flying A-1 Skyraiders. He earned a reputation as a party man … [and] dated an exotic dancer …. [H]e was a subpar flier …. During a practice run … his aircraft crashed into Corpus Christi Bay …. [H]e had another close call … from a collision with power lines … flying too low over Spain. … In fall 1965 he had his third close call when a flameout over Norfolk, Virginia led to his ejecting safely and his plane crashing.

    “McCain grew frustrated with his training [assignments] and requested a combat assignment. … [He] was assigned to the … USS Forrestal, flying A-4 Skyhawks …. McCain’s first five attack missions over North Vietnam went without incident …. By now a Lieutenant Commander, McCain was … almost killed … when a … rocket from an F-4 Phantom … accidentally fired across the carrier’s deck … struck McCain’s A-4E Skyhawk …. The ensuing fire killed 132 sailors, injured 62 others, destroyed … 20 aircraft ….

    “As Forrestal headed for repairs, McCain volunteered to join the … short-staffed USS Oriskany, which had … endured its own deck fire disaster and … had suffered heavy losses during Rolling Thunder …. [F]lying as part of a 20-plane attack against … Hanoi, … McCain … was shot down …. McCain fractured both arms and a leg … ejecting from his plane. He nearly drowned after he parachuted into Truc Bach Lake in Hanoi. …

    Cripes! Talk about accident prone!! I wouldn’t want to ride in a car with this guy let alone turn over the whole government to him!!! He seems to suffer from attention deficit disorder.

  9. 13

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Throw in typical Republicam family values (i.e., adultery) and ethics (i.e., Keating Five scandal), along with the usual flip-flopping (from GOP maverick to religious right suckup), and you’ve got the prototype of a GOP presidential candidate.