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Hosed

by Jon DeVore — Monday, 10/13/08, 11:33 am

Behold the most horrifying yet hilarious political advertisement ever produced.  (You think I exaggerate? Watch it. I dare you.) “Gushing record profits?” Bwhaaaaaaa.)

The ad is on behalf of ex-Congressman Jim Slattery of Kansas, who is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts.

I have to confess, I don’t recall Slattery being the sort who would make an ad about this sort of thing. I mean, gasoline doesn’t exactly make it any less horrifying. Hope no Kansans were smoking cigarettes or anything.

(Props to, where else, Wonkette.)

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Another week of fun begins

by Jon DeVore — Sunday, 10/12/08, 9:20 pm

It’s tomorrow in Europe!

The Chancellor will move to take control of the Royal Bank of Scotland today by injecting £20 billion of taxpayers’ money.

The Government is also expected to take over HBOS in the most dramatic extension of state ownership in the British economy since the war. The bank’s rescue takeover by Lloyds TSB appeared to be on the brink of collapse last night.

As governments around the world scramble to prevent the collapse of the global financial system, Alistair Darling will unveil plans for a £40 billion “recapitalisation” of the banking sector.

I’m going to need a chardonnay sugar scrub. You’re taking a bath but the AIG folks already took theirs– in white wine.

(Props to Eschaton for the first link.)

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Actually, this is a maverick thing to do

by Jon DeVore — Friday, 10/10/08, 7:03 pm

I’m going to take John McCain at his word in the video below, where he essentially smacks down the GOP hate mongers. There are a lot of us who had a begrudging respect for McCain for a lot of years, and at least to me it’s pointless to worry about whether he should have said this a few days ago or whatever.

He said it, and as a fellow citizen I thank him. We all make mistakes. (Props to TPM for the video.) Naturally I cannot support McCain as I disagree wholeheartedly with him, but I’m no longer feeling like he wants the crazy people to get even crazier. That’s an act of patriotism in my book.

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About wingnut ACORN hysteria

by Jon DeVore — Friday, 10/10/08, 12:41 pm

Josh Marshall explains the bogus Republican claims of “fraud” surrounding ACORN and voter registration. Well worth a full read, but here’s a sample:

I’ve always had questions about whether this is a good way to do voter registration. And Democratic campaigns usually keep their distance. But here’s the key. This is fraud against ACORN. They end up paying people for registering more people then they actually signed up. If you register me three times to vote, the registrar will see two new registrations of an already registered person and the ones won’t count. If I successfully register Mickey Mouse to vote, on election day, Mickey Mouse will still be a cartoon character who cannot go to the local voting station and vote. Logically speaking there’s very little way a few phony names on the voting rolls could be used to commit vote fraud. And much more importantly, numerous studies and investigations have shown no evidence of anything more than a handful of isolated casing of actual instances of vote fraud.

As McCain’s crowds continue to turn nasty and hateful, the bogus attack on ACORN is simply one more cog in a Republican slime machine that is working overtime. The Swiftboating has little chance of working at this point, both because of the economic scandal and because Americans have seen this crap before and (by and large) aren’t falling for it. People could care less about anything except the ominous threats to their financial well-being.

Epic fail!

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New CNBC theme song announced

by Jon DeVore — Thursday, 10/9/08, 8:32 pm

Black Friday. Heh.

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Will Vancouver bail out The Columbian?

by Jon DeVore — Thursday, 10/9/08, 6:54 pm

Less than 24 hours after The Columbian newspaper reported it is in deep financial shit and will have to move back to its cruddy old building while trying to sell or lease its new, $30 million tower across from Esther Short Park, the city of Vancouver is making noises about purchasing the new building and making it into a new city hall.

The newspaper building at 415 W. Sixth St. could be an ideal resolution to the city’s decade-long effort to consolidate city operations under one roof, said Eric Holmes, the city’s economic development director. He said the building is the right size, in the right place and the price is in line with the $35 million to $40 million the city expects to spend redeveloping the Esther Short Building into a new City Hall.

And it might make sense in more ordinary times.

However, right now this trial balloon is likely to be met with widespread catcalls if not pitchforks. The idea that taxpayers would jump in to save publisher Scott Campbell’s skin in the midst of an historic economic collapse is outrageous on the face of it.

If the city is actually serious, they should wait a year or two and see how much the property is worth, ’cause there’s likely to be a lot of space up for lease in downtown Vancouver. As I’ve noted before, most commercial activity downtown other than the growth industry of criminal justice seems to center around development and related fields, like banking, insurance and engineering. Plus some restaurants who feed the developers on weekdays.

Maybe the new Columbian building would make a nice judicial annex for our fellow prisoners.

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Deflating

by Jon DeVore — Thursday, 10/9/08, 11:34 am

I noticed this post at Calculated Risk regarding mortgage equity withdrawals, or MEW’s, on Monday, and I’ve been meaning to link to it. If you click through there’s a nice bar graph that really illustrates just how much money is being yanked out of the economy. Here it is in words:

Equity extraction was close to $700 billion per year in 2004, 2005 and 2006, before declining to $471 billion last year and will probably be less than $100 billion in 2008.

The post goes on to sort through what this might mean, and I’ll leave those technical details to the trained economists.

But as we keep hearing how consumers used home equity to finance not just lifestyles but in many cases simply to stay afloat through health and job crises, it’s hard not to conclude there’s going to be a continuing ripple effect throughout the economy.

This would seem to add to already intense deflationary pressures, both from the housing bubble collapse and recession-related job loss. As the ripples spread nothing short of a massive government intervention to help fuel demand (as opposed to repeatedly injecting cash into failing corporations) would seem to be worthy of discussion.

Paulson is already pivoting toward nationalization of banks, so who knows? By Halloween we may be looking at the new Treasury Department Works Progress Administration.

Just sayin’.

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Feel the love

by Jon DeVore — Thursday, 10/9/08, 9:02 am

State Sen. Joseph Zarelli, R- Ridgefield and ranking minority member of Ways and Means, responding to criticism of his 2007 “Convergence Northwest” conference that featured extreme-right speakers and Knesset members:

Zarelli said the conference was open to the public but told The Columbian he did not invite Muslims to make presentations because, “It’s not my purpose or goal to understand why somebody wants to kill Americans.”

I wish I could report that Democrat Jon Haugen was a worthy adversary for Zarelli in the 18th LD, but unfortunately Haugen is about as wingnutty as they come too.

I have submitted Initiative to the People 997

Initiative Measure No. 997 concerns valuation of single-family residences
for property tax purposes. I have spoken with Tim Eyman about this idea
and discussed the uniformity clause of the Washington State Constitution.

This measure would limit tax valuation of single-family residences to the
assessed value on December 31, 2005, adjusted annually for inflation but
not greater than two percent higher than the previous year’s valuation.
Should this measure be enacted into law?

Great. An end of times candidate or a Tim Eyman candidate. Some choice.

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The end of The Columbian?

by Jon DeVore — Wednesday, 10/8/08, 6:49 pm

The Columbian newspaper in Vancouver is reporting that it will return to its old offices in a desperate attempt to stay afloat.

The move, according to Columbian Publisher Scott Campbell, is out of the need to generate more revenue from a new six-story building constructed by Campbell and his wife, Jody, which opened south of Esther Short Park in January. The options, Campbell said, are to either lease all of the 118,000-square-foot $30 million structure or to sell it. At present, Columbian newsroom, advertising and circulation operations occupy four of the six floors in the building at 415 W. Sixth St.

And bankruptcy isn’t out of the question:

In order to make the difficult financial transition, Campbell said the company is trying to negotiate a new loan with its lender or will seek temporary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors. Chapter 11 gives a business time to reorganize and return to financial health.

Whew. I’m no expert but given what we’ve been hearing about the credit crisis created by the mortgage scandal, that sounds pretty grim.

I have to confess I have mixed emotions about this. On the one hand, the heart of newspapers is news gathering, and the thought of Clark County not having a daily newspaper would mean that some 400,000 residents would find out even less about what is happening in their community. Sure, it’s possible that Oregon media would increase their coverage some, but The Oregonian has laid off tons of people this year as well. And Oregon TV stations are, well, TV stations.

On the other hand, Campbell runs a newspaper that printed the likes of Michelle Malkin for a long stretch of time, while adopting a thoroughly anti-union stance and coddling the local wingnuts. The standing joke for years has been that Campbell would be better off if he just sold the newspaper and concentrated on his apparent first love, real estate. Of course, that’s not looking so hot right now either.

The whole thing is kind of weird coming on the heels of a series of endorsements favoring Democrats. It’s as if The Columbian has come to the belated realization that the folks intent on destroying the “EM ESS EM” are not, in fact, the liberals, who despite grumping about various editorial positions and tendencies in reporting at least acknowledge the role a free press is supposed to play in our system.

Then there’s the collapse of the housing market itself and the attendant ad revenue. No point in advertising new houses when nobody is building them and nobody is buying them. So much for diversification of the Clark County economy. That turned out to be so much hot air, no surprise. The business of Clark County the last eighteen years or so has been building as many houses as possible, and now the residents shall pay the economic penalty.

They can be a cantankerous lot down there at The Columbian, so I wouldn’t rule out a McCain endorsement just yet. They seem to delight in making as many people angry as possible sometimes, just to prove a point. What the point would be with a McCain endorsement I don’t know, but trust me, they could come up with something.

Overall, the troubles at The Columbian are a continuation of ongoing problems in the industry, exacerbated by poor ownership, an unpopular editorial stance and small town cronyism. It’s entirely likely that Clark County will not have a daily newspaper at some point in the not-so-distant future.

And that’s a bad thing.

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More seaweed wrap please

by Jon DeVore — Wednesday, 10/8/08, 2:21 pm

Fed announces new 37.8-bln-dlr cash infusion for AIG

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Democrats sweep newspaper endorsements in 17th LD

by Jon DeVore — Wednesday, 10/8/08, 10:32 am

So not only has The Columbian endorsed Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire in her re-election bid, but in Vancouver’s 17th Legislative District, traditionally a swing-to-leans-Republican district, all three Democrats have drawn the endorsement of the newspaper as well.

None of the endorsements are especially surprising, but perhaps the one that will draw the most notice elsewhere is the ringing endorsement of political novice David Carrier over long-time Republican state senator Don Benton.

David Carrier for state senator — You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who provides a greater contrast to blustery incumbent Don Benton than Democrat David Carrier, a soft-spoken political newcomer, avid outdoorsman and holder of a doctoral degree in economics from Notre Dame. Carrier is working tirelessly in the campaign. It paid off in the primary when he won 45.6 percent of the votes, a surprising showing against Benton, a 14-year legislator with three terms as state senator.

Voters, though, must have been familiar with those 14 years. He once missed 17 consecutive meetings as a member of the Higher Education Committee. Benton’s bellicose collisions with colleagues raised eyebrows as far back as 2000 when Republican leaders demanded his resignation as state chair. Through the years, he’s become an inveterate “Dr. No,” opposing sensible ideas that draw popular support, such as all-mail voting and abolishing the supermajority for school levies. He is even opposed to the proposal for replacing the decrepit and dangerous Interstate 5 Bridge.

Ouch. It’s kind of too bad the Washington State Labor Council has endorsed Don Benton for state senate in this, of all years. It’s not as if a bridge project would provide prevailing wage jobs or anything.

In the race to replace Rep. Jim Dunn, R-Vancouver, who was defeated in the primary by Joseph James, it’s also no contest, according to The Columbian. Democrat Tim Probst may never have held office, but the newspaper notes his far superior experience.

Few rookies are better prepared for elected office than Tim Probst. He currently works as leader of a statewide work force training group and has solid experience as state policy analyst, legislative liaison and assistant to Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar in the 1990s. Bolstered by 48.2 percent of the primary votes, Probst has the momentum and the expertise to help 17th district voters forget about Dunn.

And last but not least, incumbent Deb Wallace justifiably garners the endorsement over culture warrior Micheline Doan.

You have to be realistic, of course, about newspaper endorsements. They don’t count at the ballot box, and Republicans never, ever give up, but it’s a sign of the times that Republicans have fielded such poor candidates in a swing suburban district, while Democrats have come up with much better candidates. If the landslide really does happen, it’s going to be very tough sledding for Republicans everywhere.

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At the horse races

by Jon DeVore — Tuesday, 10/7/08, 12:31 pm

From WaPo:

Now it is less than a month later. Obama appears to be cruising and McCain stumbling. Every shift in campaign tactics by McCain is seen through the prism of an operation in distress. That’s why McCain is on the hot seat for Tuesday’s debate.

Well, okay. It’s seen that way by Beltway reporters and the politically obsessed (guilty as charged, your honor.) But that’s “horse race” campaign coverage, focusing on the tactics and strategy. Nothing against it, actually, but it’s becoming more beside the point right now.

What strikes me is how much interest there is in this election amongst normal people. A lot of folks may be leaning one way or the other, but they’re watching the debates and are genuinely concerned about the economic crisis and who will lead this country. I’ve certainly been a little surprised by some friends and neighbors (both Republican and Democratic) who approached the first two debates with the anticipation usually reserved for football games. (We now live in a country where people make decent snacks for political debates! Yeah!)

When you’ve observed politics closely for a long time, though, debates can be pretty tough to stomach. Platitudes abound, and transparent efforts to score the next “Where’s the beef?” line grow tiresome. So the earnestness with which many voters are viewing this election is refreshing.

Broadly speaking, I think there is an expectation by the public that the candidates will actually say something meaningful tonight about the meltdown. People want to know what these guys are going to do about it, and I’m certain platitudes and evasiveness are not going to be met with much acceptance. Nobody wants to bore the audience to tears with technical discussions, but laying out a long-term, sensible plan for the economy would seem to be within the abilities of at least one of these candidates. You would think.

I suppose it’s likely we may hear the names “Ayers” and “Keating,” but if it gets out of hand people are going to be royally pissed.

Just my $.02.

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Pay and pay some more

by Jon DeVore — Monday, 10/6/08, 10:32 am

Everyone in the country gets to pay for the $700 billion Hank Paulson slush fund, and if you’re a Countrywide customer in good standing you get to pay some more.

Washington residents who got mortgages through Countrywide and who already lost their homes to foreclosure will be eligible for money, said Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna, who will discuss the settlement this morning at a news conference.

“This is a very large and important first step in helping to stop the cycle,” McKenna said. “We are going to put the brakes on that downward spiral.”

McKenna said Countrywide used predatory lending practices similar to those found in investigations of other large lenders across the country. They issued loans to people who couldn’t afford them by falsely inflating borrowers’ incomes, used hidden fees and made deceptive marketing claims, saying, for example, a loan had “no closing costs,” when borrowers were actually paying closing costs.

To be honest, at least this plan actually seems to be addressing the heart of the problem, namely bad mortgages caused by a combination of ARM’s, industry fraud and overreaching by home buyers during a bubble.

You can call this situation a lot of things, but you can’t call it free market capitalism. Someone always has to pay, and the money for this plan appears to be coming from Countrywide customers and Bank of American customers. (As an aside, it’s a curious fact that consumers are allowed no choice about whom to do business with when it comes to home loans, no? They just buy your loan and you get no say.)

The details of the plan seem to make sense, but are still maddening:

Rates could decline to 2.5 percent, depending upon a borrower’s ability to pay, and remain at that level for five years. Then the rate would adjust to prevailing interest rates charged by Fannie Mae on its fixed-rate mortgages.

The program will focus on borrowers placed in the riskiest loans, including adjustable-rate mortgages whose interest rates reset significantly several years after the loans were made.

Pay-option mortgages, under which a borrower must pay only a small fraction of the interest and principal, thereby allowing the loan balance to increase, are also included in the modifications.

Borrowers whose first payment was due between Jan. 1, 2004, and Dec. 31, 2007, can participate. The loan balance must be at least 75 percent of the current value of the home, and the borrower must be able to afford the adjusted monthly payments.

So the reward for resisting outrageously risky ARM’s and paying your mortgage on time is that you get to enjoy severe declines in the stock market, including IRA’s and 401(k) plans, decline in the amount of equity in your home, a shaky job market and higher prices for everyday items like food and fuel.

Now, I know not everyone is impacted equally. There are plenty of folks out there who don’t have much in the way of savings and investments, and an Obama administration and a “more and better” Congress will need to look hard at issues like real wages. In bad economic times, the working poor always take it in the shins.

Sadly, there’s really little choice in the matter of Countrywide. The politicians, though, will have to forgive we plebeians if we’re wondering why our families don’t get a special low interest rate and maybe some principal knocked off our mortgage. Hell, we’d settle for a nice four-figure contribution to the old college fund, which is looking rather battered at the moment.

Some people might be concluding that paying on a loan is a sucker’s game. Not my family, of course, because we believe in old-fashioned progressive values like honesty and personal responsibility, but there is a palpable sense of frustration out on the hustings. Our government and large portions of corporate America need to clean up their act, big time.

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Beating terrorism

by Jon DeVore — Sunday, 10/5/08, 8:00 pm

Maybe Miss Congeniality would like to discuss American history with me? ‘Cause, you know, (wink) mean people suck and all.

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Ghosts of “terrorists”

by Jon DeVore — Sunday, 10/5/08, 6:59 pm

Ohio.

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