Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
13.3% probability	86.7% probability
Mean of 48 seats	Mean of 52 seats

Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.

My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.

Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.

What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.

There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.

Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.

Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.

Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	44
Strong Democrat	2	46
Leans Democrat	2	2	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	1	1	1	52
Leans Republican	1	1	51
Strong Republican	9	50
Safe Republican	41

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		16	11772	51.1	48.9	94.5	5.5
AR		1&	451	32.2	67.8	0.0	100.0
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		4	3028	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
CT		1	773	66.2	33.8	100.0	0.0
FL		7	4408	46.2	53.8	0.0	100.0
GA		15	12247	49.9	50.1	46.3	53.7
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	441	59.2	40.8	99.5	0.5
IN		1	615	43.7	56.3	1.4	98.6
IA		1	753	43.6	56.4	0.8	99.2
KS		1	868	37.6	62.4	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.1	99.9
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1&	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		5	4295	44.0	56.0	0.0	100.0
NV		9	6281	48.2	51.8	2.5	97.5
NH		9	10733	50.7	49.3	84.4	15.6
NY		5	4024	60.1	39.9	100.0	0.0
NC		7	6807	47.4	52.6	0.1	99.9
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		8	7425	46.9	53.1	0.0	100.0
OK		3	2024	41.6	58.4	0.0	100.0
OK		3	1984	38.8	61.2	0.0	100.0
OR		2	2171	58.2	41.8	100.0	0.0
PA		14	11479	49.8	50.2	37.0	63.0
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.1	99.9
SD		1&	1275	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
UT		2	1242	43.2	56.8	0.1	99.9
VT		1&	987	66.4	33.6	100.0	0.0
WA		3	2183	51.1	48.9	76.1	23.9
WI		8	6410	48.5	51.5	3.8	96.2

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

John Oliver: Bail reform

Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle

SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West

Electile Dysfunction:

• Stephen: A Rare Correkshun: Michigan Voter Does Exist
• Trevor: Campaign attack ads are out of control this election season
• SNL: PBS NewsHour—Republican momentum
• Bill Maher: Democracy’s deathbed
• The New York Times: Millions suffered. Hundreds died. Greg Abbott will probably get re-elected anyway
• Steve Hofstetter: All the problems with Ron Johnson
• Vice News: Election conspiracies are disrupting the midterms
• Alex Wagner: Election workers become heroes and villains in midterm spotlight
• The Daily Show: Georgia Ninja voter with Roy Wood Jr. & Desi Lydic:

• Jordan Klepper: America unfollows Democracy
• Vox: The 3 possible outcomes of the 2022 US election
• Ari Melber: As Obama says Democracy on ballot, new calls to “Vote with your wallet” (Pharrell-Melber interview)
• WaPo: Obama warns against rising political violence
• Seth Meyers: Graham ordered to testify in Georgia and Mike Lindell says he’s monitoring midterms
• Alex Wagner: Federal judge rules against intimidating ballot box vigilantes in Arizona
• Parody Project: ♫ Waiting For The Miracle—Election Day Nov 2022 ♬
• NowThis: Why you should vote (in less than 90 seconds)
• The Late Show: ♫ Dr. Oz is Surfin’ PA ♬
• Seth Meyers: Obama campaigns against Kari Lake and warns about threats to democracy
• Trevor: Obama roasts Herschel Walker on the campaign trail
• Robert Reich: This one thing may stop Трамп from running for election
• Ari Melber: Трамп legal peril—Blows past Jan. 6 subpoena as DOJ eyes special counsel
• Chris Hayes: Vote to preserve your right to throw the bums out
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Voter Fraud is a Fraud ♬:

• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: LIVE from Kari Lake’s campaign headquarters
• The Daily Show: Трамп’s wild radio interview
• Al Franken: GET OUT THERE AND DOOR KNOCK!!!!!!!!!!
• Rachel Maddow: Трамп and acolytes are working to turn Republicans against elections (and succeeding)
• Bill Maher: Closing arguments
• Late Night: Jeff Wright holds a support group to help out voters
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reveals Barron’s costume
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell urges people not to vote early and it’s hilarious
• Seth Meyers: Republicans are already claiming the midterms are rigged unless they win

LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed

Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past

Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬

The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп is NOT Who Трампers Think He Is ♬
• J-L Cauvin: The one Трамп you should not make fun of
• Alex Wagner: Трамп’s stunt lawsuit backfires as NYAG uses it to show his bad intentions
• Jimmy Kimmel: Kanye has a thing for Hitler, Republicans set sights on abortion ban & the state of our Democrac
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ All We Want is a Little Bit of Normalcy ♬
• The Daily Show: OneVestigation—Keeping Трамп’s crime organized:

• Robert Reich: Debunking the Big Lies coming from Republicans
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s “Captain Comb-Over” Theme Song ♬
• Mark Fiore: Nutzy explains away right wing violence
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Republicans and The Monster They Created ♬
• The Late Show: This is how Kari Lake’s comments would sound if they were actually creatively edited
• Alex Wagner: Jan. 6 Committee to hear more Secret Service testimony as new answers yield new questions
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ He’s Fucking Nuts! ♬
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: Two-faced talking points:

• Tommy Campbell: Don Jr. Cowers after mocking Paul Pelosi
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп sticks with Kanye, Herschel Walker’s lies add up & FAUX News’ fake fentanyl crisis
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Sen. Ron Johnson—Though Lacking in Substance, He’s Remarkably Dense! ♬

WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment

Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack

Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election season is upon us. Next Tuesday is election day, so today is a great day to fill out your ballot, drop it off in a mailbox or ballot drop box, and then swing by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We’ll be discussing politics of all types over drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Stephen: Sec. Pete Buttigieg on why fixing America’s infrastructure is fun and exciting

LeagleEagle: Ghosts are legally real

Electile Dysfunction:

• Mark Fiore: The Republicans closing argument
• Alex Wagner: How election officials (and individuals) can guard against ballot box intimidation tactics
• The Late Show: This hospital is run by local political leaders
• Robert Reich: The huge problem with voting (it’s not what you think):

• Now This: Chelsey Hall on why local and state elections are crucial
• Jon Stewart: Interview excerpt with Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich
• WaPo: How states are countering the assault on elections
• Chris Hayes: Republicans set stage to rerun Трамп Big Lie playbook for 2022 midterms
• The Late Show: JD Vance neuters monkeys

Jon Stewart: Why are states undercutting their own workers?

Now This: How young people are leading the way on gun reform

The Lying, Cheating and Scheming Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Pigs may soon fly ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s debate lies & Mike Lindell’s tech fails
• Alex Wagner: Texas Republican stunt costs police millions and blocks other important spending
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS Tom Brady-Ron Desantis Bromance
• Chris Hayes: Pelosi home invasion comes after years of Трамп targeting the speaker
• Jimmy Kimmel: Repulsive Ted Cruz heckled in New York and Трамп & Marjorie Taylor Greene running mates!?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I LOVE America, so I DON’T Love Трамп ♬:

• The Late Show: ♫ Throw Ted Out Of The Ball Game ♬
• Katy Tur: Bob Woodward’s interviews with Трамп shows “His negligence was criminal” on covid
• Jordan Klepper finds out if democracy is dead
• Ari Melber: “Coward” Cruz hid in a closet amid insurrection then fueled Трамп’s Big Lie
• Bill Maher: Twenty four things you don’t know about Marjorie Taylor Greene
• Jordan Klepper: Is America headed to another civil war?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ This is NOT Where I Thought We’d Be Going ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Trump’s UNBELIEVABLE Woodward interviews, Adidas dumps Kanye & Herschel’s war on Halloween
• Stephen: Dr. Oz wants local officials in charge of abortions and another Herschel Walker abortion scandal
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Buckley Carlson Did NOT Get his Job Because of His Dad. Really ♬
• Liberal Redneck: Inflation and the GOP
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Rishi Sunak becoming Prime Minister
• Jimmy Kimmel: Lindsey Graham tries to save Herschel Walker and Kanye’s Hitler bombshell
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп Ain’t Man Enough to Dare to Testify ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Dr. Oz investigated over the fraud claims Fetterman pressed him on
• The Daily Show: 30 for 30—Ted Cruz, bleacher creature
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to attack on Paul Pelosi
• Rocky Mountain Mike: The Flaven — 2022:

• Ari Melber: Closing in on Трамп? Criminal probes intensify amid historic subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ CDC to Require Fox Vaccine ♬
• Alex Wagner: Migrant plane stunt haunts DeSantis as judge rejects effort to conceal records
• Chris Hayes: Трамп is planning to challenge PA 2022 election results
• Jimmy Kimmel: Another Herschel abortion scandal, Eric Трамп’s sad call to daddy & Kanye shows up uninvited
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Half Fast, but Proud of It ♬

Desi Lydic: Halloween—Why do we celebrate this?

Jon Stewart and friends: When states compete to win jobs, residents pay the price

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Hey…it’s the Tuesday after ballots dropped (in King County, anyway). Stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and we can discuss it.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Spitting Image: Best of Biden

John Oliver: Transgender Rights, Part II

Electoral Dysfunction:

• Joy Reid: Florida’s saying votes aren’t welcome if you’re Black, brown, poor, or not going to vote GOP
• Liberal Redneck: Trashin’ Alabama for three straight minutes
• Mehdi Hasan: Ron DeSantis escalates his fascistic voter suppression efforts
• Jordan Klepper: Michigan midterm voters
• Alex Wagner: Election offices add protection against Трамп “Stop the Steal” conspiracy theorists
• Liberal Redneck: Voting Republican to “save the economy”
• NowThis: Slavery is on the ballot during the 2022 midterms
• Jonathan Mann: ♫ Will Dr Oz Eat A Cheesesteak? Ah No. ♬

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Alex Wagner with Trevor Noah: American racism vs. overt racism in South Africa

Chris Hayes: What abortion ban with exception for “life of the mother” really means

WaPo: How SNL’s January 6 committee hearing compared to reality

The Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

• Trevor: Трамп doesn’t find Trevor funny
• Alex Wagner: DeSantis’ new education restrictions puts Florida teachers’ certification on the line
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Reacts to Steve Bannon Going to Prison
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Nancy Pelosi, January 6th’s Commander-in-Chief ♬
• Rocky Mountain Mike: ♫ Ivana’s Casket ♬
• Mark Fiore: Your very own social network
• Ari Melber: Bannon becomes first Трамп vet sentenced to prison in a Jan. 6 probe
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: “The Biggest Hypocrite in Congress” award:

• Chris Hayes: House inquiry finds Трамп charged Secret Service “exorbitant” rates for hotel stays
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ D.J.T., or Doing Jail Time ♬
• J-L Cauvin: The greatest love story of all time—Clarence and Ginni Thomas
• Robert Reich: The case for prosecuting The Dotard Трамп
• Ari Melber: Roadmap to coup culpability—Трамп hit with historic subpoena
• Tommy Campbell: Herschel Walker’s prop badge fail & Трамп hotels scammed taxpayers
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Why Трамп Should Be Arrested ♬
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп lawyers prove they don’t know why they asked for a Special Master
• SNL: Jan 6th final hearing
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Punch Trump, Get Happy ♬
• Ari Melber: “MAGA trifecta of crimes’—DOJ vet on legal heat for Трамп and Bannon
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s Secret Service Secret Shame ♬:

• Legal Eagle: Alex Jones’s billion dollar bad day (and why it’s going to get worse)
• Rachel Maddow: Report reveals greater extent of Трамп admin interference in CDC than previously known
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ No President Has Done More for Israel Than Трамп Has ♬
• Alex Wagner: Трамп’s conspiracy theory collides with reality in another embarrassing Durham failure
• Ari Melber: From “FUCK Трамп anthem” to mass protests, new report shows how people power can win
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Trump & Taft, Twins? ♬
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп’s 14-page response to Jan. 6 subpoena

Jon Stewart: Why Americans hate paying taxes

Alex Wagner: Peril of abortion bans to women’s health becomes dreaded reality

Jonathan Mann: ♫ Debt Forgivness 4eva ♬

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Neither snow nor rain nor cold nor gloom of smoky nights stays these liberals from the swift consumption of their fermented rounds….or from rounds of vigorous discussion. That’s right, the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight! Stop by if you fancy.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may prefer to stay in the back room of the pub.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Ali Velshi: The viral political ad women have been waiting for

Seth Meyers: Vice President Harris talks Biden’s marijuana pardons, 2022 midterms and abortion rights
Seth Meyers: Vice President Kamala Harris discusses the next steps for pardoning marijuana possession

Desi Lydic investigates paper shortages affecting upcoming elections

Трамп and His Band of Lying Seditionists:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Alex Jones Whines About Hell (He’d best get used to it) ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell loses appeal and tells churches to break the law
• Stephen: Alex Jones is out a billion & Walker changes the subject
• Trevor: Трамп subpoenaed by January 6 Panel & Alex Jones ordered to pay $1 billion
• Robert Reich: Election deniers could pick the next President without you
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Republican idiocracy
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Capitol riot demands denied, Alex Jones’ $965 million hissy fit & MORE KIDS for Herschel?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Blaming it on the Liberals ♬
• The Late Show: Herschel Walker’s campaign clarifies his bull story
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Rights Aren’t Pie ♬:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s EPIC REACTION to the January 6th subpoena
• Seth Meyers: Dramatic Jan. 6 hearing issues Трамп subpoena, hints at criminal referrals
• The Daily Show: These “conservatives” sound like the KKK
• Stephen: Shocking twist…the Jan 6 Committee votes to subpoena the Dotard
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп primes the riot pump, Tucker puckers up to Kanye & Herschel’s story gets worse
• Seth Meyers: VP Harris on Texas Gov. Abbott bussing migrants across the country for “political theater”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Ariel Elias stealing a beer
• Stephen: Why is Rudy Giuliani partying in Times Square without Stephen Colbert?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: The Dotard has confessed
• Seth Meyers: Трамп accidentally confesses in stolen docs case
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ A Second Amendment Hymn ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп vs late night hosts, Marjorie Taylor Greene vs immigrants & Herschel Walker vs The Libs!
• Lawrence O’DonnellDOJ appears to crush every Трамп argument in new filing
• Stephen: Stephanopoulos on The Dotard
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: The Herschel Walker exception:

• The Late Show: Kanye’s social media presence is not getting stronger
• Seth Meyers: DOJ says Трамп still has more stolen docs, tells SCOTUS to stay out of case
• Jimmy Kimmel: Crazy series finale of Jan 6th hearings and Трамп’s little subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп said it was okay to have stolen documents ♬
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reads & DESTROYS Maggie Haberman’s book
• Robert Reich: What happened at the last January 6th hearing?
• Desi Lydic FAUXsplains Herschel Walker
• The Daily Show: A day in the life of Трамп’s Special Master, Raymond Dearie
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Loser, Loner and Liar ♬
• Stephen: Speaker Pelosi displayed superhuman composure during Jan 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol

John Oliver: Crime reporting

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Seth Meyers: FAUX News’ Halloween fearmongering—Hot Tamales, Sugar Daddies

SNL Weekend Update: Political news of the week

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders

LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever

John Oliver: Museums and antiquities

WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward

Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons

Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power

Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?

Трамп and His Felonious Fans:

• Katie Phang: Oath Keepers leader on trial says group “should have brought rifles” on Jan. 6
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Herschel May Not Be Your Daddy (or Senator) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Herschel Walker abortion lies add up, Трамп files accidentally released & Gay Velma drives GOP mad
• Trevor: Conservatives launch new dating app “The Right Stuff”
• Stephen: Herschel Walker’s girlfriend kept receipts
• Amber Ruffin: Ron DeSantis getting DRAGGED by Jiggly Caliente
• Katie Phang: MAGA extremism—Violent “civil war” rhetoric spikes online ahead of midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп PRAISES Dr. Oz’ dog experiments
• Alex Wagner: “He was pro-choice, obviously,” new report quotes woman who says Walker paid for abortion
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Automotive Epiphany ♬
• The Late Show: Be a man and drive the new Pontiac Schvantz:

• Alex Wagner: Blizzard of new revelations sends Walker camp scrambling
• Tommy Campbell: Herschel Walker tackled by ex’s receipts and son’s rant
• The Late Show: ♫ Herschel Walker, “It Wasn’t Me” ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—A Question of Storage ♬
• Alex Wagner: Трамп lawyers deploy slow-down tactics but Трамп’s case doesn’t improve
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Prof. Laurence Tribe—Трамп’s Special Master appeal is a “sideshow”
• Chris Hayes: How FAUX News became a PR channel for Republican Senate candidates
• The Late Show: Hallmark introduces The Herschel Walker Collection
• Seth Meyers: Трамп takes classified docs case to SCOTUS and Rudy’s gross toilet habits
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I’m Tired of Singing (about Трамп’s Faults) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID Superman fantasy and Ted Cruz is taking back America on a bus
• Lauren Mayer: Let’s Boot Out Herschel Walker:

• Stephen: Tyler Templeton reports LIVE from Mar-a-Lago for “Tooning Out The News”
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ The Republican Limbo Song ♬
• SNL Weekend Update: Mitch McConnell and Herschel Walker on 2022 midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Mitch McConnell reacts to Трамп saying he has a death wish
• jimmy Kimmel: Supreme Court REJECTS MyPillow Mike, Трамп weathers tell all storm & Herschel’s concussion defense
• Seth Meyers: GOP stumbles toward midterms as Трамп claims all elections are rigged
• Alex Wagner: What Трамп’s outreach to the Supreme Court is really all about
• Trevor: Who is Herschel Walker?
• Trevor: Maggie Haberman—The Ultimate Guide to The Dotard Трамп
• Stephen: “At this point we can’t ignore him”—Maggie Haberman on covering
• Stephen: “He’s backed himself into a corner”—Why Maggie Haberman thinks Трамп will run in 2024
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп, Just Your Average Sociopath ♬:

• Alex Wagner with Maggie Habberman: Трамп entitlement developed as rich kid, far from his new blue collar base
• Jon Stewart and friends: Herschel Walker’s abortion controversy
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Where else did Трамп leave his beloved classified documents?
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell’s storm report fails and Marjorie’s divorce
• Seth Meyers: GOP reels as scandal-ridden MAGA candidates like Walker and Oz implode
• Chris Hayes: DeSantis auditions for role of green M&M in white boots
• Trevor: FAUX News’s bizarre defense of Herschel Walker
• Alex Wagner: Walker confirms accuser’s identity, but denies knowledge of her abortion
• Jimmy Kimmel: Wild new Трамп tell-all and Herschel Walker’s abortion scandal
• Stephen: GOP pretends Трамп isn’t racist
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ If You Hate America, You’ll LOVE Трамп! ♬

Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown

Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.

WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion

Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG

The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
97.2% probability	2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats	Mean of 49 seats

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	47
Strong Democrat	3	50
Leans Democrat	0	0	50
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	50
Weak Republican	0	0	0	50
Leans Republican	5	5	50
Strong Republican	10	45
Safe Republican	35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		9	6018	54.3	45.7	100.0	0.0
AR		1	618	41.3	58.7	0.1	99.9
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		3	2667	55.0	45.0	100.0	0.0
CT		2	2435	58.4	41.6	100.0	0.0
FL		6	3396	47.5	52.5	2.0	98.0
GA		8	7128	51.2	48.8	92.9	7.1
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	805	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
IN		1	456	48.7	51.3	35.1	64.9
IA		1&	514	45.3	54.7	6.9	93.1
KS		1	784	42.2	57.8	0.1	99.9
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.3	99.7
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		2	1560	43.3	56.7	0.0	100.0
NV		5	3721	48.8	51.2	15.6	84.4
NH		7	5381	54.1	45.9	100.0	0.0
NY		2	1454	62.6	37.4	100.0	0.0
NC		5	3603	49.2	50.8	24.3	75.7
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		5	3698	49.3	50.7	26.9	73.1
OK		2	814	43.6	56.4	0.4	99.6
OK		1	430	39.5	60.5	0.1	99.9
OR		2	1507	61.4	38.6	100.0	0.0
PA		9	6780	52.6	47.4	99.9	0.1
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		3	1198	46.6	53.4	4.7	95.3
VT		1	996	53.5	46.5	94.5	5.5
WA		5	3361	54.4	45.6	100.0	0.0
WI		8	5709	49.2	50.8	18.4	81.6

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal

Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases

Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton

Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries

Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts

Lewis Black: 100 fucks given

Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ There Doesn’t Have to Be a Process, There CAN Be a Process ♬
• Katie Phang: Jan. 6 bombshell? “Significant information” obtained by Committee amid Ginni Thomas interview
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to the divorce of Marjorie Taylor Greene
• Ari Melber: Трамп coup nightmare—Aides testify as DOJ moves up the line in criminal probe
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 Committee obtains damning Roger Stone video, weighs Трамп subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Beware of (Dotard Трамп’s) False Profits ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп nearly fired Ivanka & Jared via tweet
• Mehdi Hasan: Where Roger Stone and Ginni Thomas stand in 1/6 probe
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s favorite part of being President? The rich people! ♬
• Stephen: Трамп denies watching TV during Jan 6 insurrection
• Chris Hayes: A tale of two MAGA extremist candidates for governor
• Parody Project: ♫ SPECIAL MASTER ♬:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Better ignored, best forgotten ♬
• Robert Reich: This one thing made Alex Jones stop lying
• Stephen: Mastriano getting desperate in PA
• Vice News: Cowboy for Трамп removed from office for Jan. 6
• Chris Hayes: Трамп Judges reminds us the rule of law is a “human institution”
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell considered attacking the FBI and it’s nuts
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ (Not) Too Young” (the Трамп kids legal defense song) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s gullible sheep ♬
• Mark Fiore: The “Commitment to America”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Shirtless Трампers fight hurricane and Marjorie Taylor Greene is getting divorced
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 panel grills Ginni Thomas about shocking coup texts with Трамп team
• Rachel Maddow: Endgame of GOP undermining elections is to evade accountability to voters
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part one) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part two) ♬
• Katie Phang: Judge’s endgame seems to be to help Трамп says former FBI agent
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s bizarre nuke rant
• LegalEagle: Трамп’s beatdown in the 11th Circuit (Cannon rebuked):

• Chris Hayes: Why the Oath Keepers trial defense could spell trouble for Трамп
• Mehdi Hasan: The GOP’s backwards obsession with “law and order”
• Joy Reid: Stone may join club of pardoned Трамп henchmen who commit more crimes says expert
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s helicopter hog contest is hilariously bad
• Stephen: Haberman’s book details racist, sexist behavior by Трамп
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Ginni Thomas finally meets with Jan. 6 Committee
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ What to do with Трамп and Трампers? ♬
• Ali Velshi: Wild new book details how Proud Boys take orders from Трамп’s rhetoric

Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts

Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!

Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?

Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes

The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is meeting this evening for some discussion of politics over drinks. Join us if you wish.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.