Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes, on average.

Today we got 35 new polls covering 19 states. The net result of all these new polls is…not much. Obama holds firmly to his lead today.

A Monte Carlo analysis utilizing 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning each and every mock election. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 373 to 165 electoral votes (on average). Obama almost certainly would have won an election held yesterday.

With the addition of fifteen new polls from thirteen states today, Obama earns a couple more electoral votes….

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes—a gain of three. Obama would still have a near-100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes	Mean of 165 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 372 to 166 electoral votes (on average). Today we have eight new polls in seven states weighing in on the contest. Obama gains very slightly.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 373 to McCain’s 165 electoral votes—a gain of one electoral vote. If the election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Sen. John McCain gets a theme song:

(There are some sixty more media clips from the past week in politics at Hominid Views.)

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 372 electoral votes	Mean of 166 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. There were 21 new polls in 15 states released today. The polls slightly favor McCain, so that he gains a handful of electoral votes today.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 372 to McCain’s 166 electoral votes. Obama would still have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by (on average) 370 to 168 electoral votes. There were 26 new polls representing 17 states released today to weigh in on today’s analysis. For the most part, the polls strongly favored Obama.

Now, the outcome of 100,000 simulated elections is that Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes—a gain of six. In an election held now, Obama would win with near certainty.

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Obama	189
Strong Obama	177	366
Leans Obama	12	12	378
Weak Obama	0	0	0	378
Weak McCain	3	3	3	160
Leans McCain	15	15	157
Strong McCain	105	142
Safe McCain	37

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 370 electoral votes	Mean of 168 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by an average of 368 to 170 electoral votes. Today there were 18 new polls representing 12 states released that weigh in on the score. The net result is a small gain for Obama.

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections finds that Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes—a gain of two. If an election had been held today, Obama would have had a near 100% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days over the period 22-Feb to 22-Oct. After a very slight period of decline, Obama is again gaining with time:

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

The big topic of conversation was the seemingly illegal contribution to Rep. Dave Reichert’s campaign by Media Plus. Did Reichert violate the letter of the law, or just the spirit of the law? Are Republicans like Reichert and Rossi ignoring election financing laws, and treating post-elections fines as the cost of doing business? From there, a heady discussion arose about liberalism and conservatism, and what liberals must do about conservatives.

Goldy was joined by Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, and Eat The State’s Geov Parrish.

The show is 56:26, and is available here as an MP3:

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_oct_21_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 368 electoral votes	Mean of 170 electoral votes

Today’s analysis incorporates a slight change to my algorithm. With exactly two weeks left until the election, I’ve reduced the window for “current polls” from 14 days down to 10 days. (I’ll reduce that down to 7 days when there is one week remaining—these changes were all planned in advance).

With that in mind, Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174 electoral votes. Obama would have won an election held yesterday with near 100% certainty.

Today there were a remarkable 17 new polls covering 14 states released. The new polls (and, perhaps, with an assist from changes to the “current poll” window) give Obama a modest gain in his expected electoral votes.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama gains four new electoral votes, for an average of 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Again, in an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E., although some of us show up early for dinner.

Tonight’s activities? We’ll be filling out stacks of ballots we got from submitting the names of cartoon characters to ACORN. Then we’ll think about new ways to enact middle class tax cuts socialism in Washington state. We’ll cap-off the evening by having our pictures taken with a terrorist. It’ll be fun! Hope you can make it.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes	Mean of 174 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis had Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 360 to 178 electoral votes. If the election had been held yesterday, it almost certainly would have gone to Obama.

Today there were 17 new polls in 13 states released. The polls are something of a mixed bag, but Obama gets the better of ’em.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one.
Obama gains back four electoral votes from yesterday for an average of 364 to McCain’s 174. Once again, an election held now would go for Obama with a near 100% chance.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes	Mean of 178 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 370 to 168 electoral votes. In an election held yesterday, Obama would
have almost certainly won.

There were eight new polls in six states released today that weigh in on the score. The most influential are two West Virginia polls that hand the state back to McCain, and a new poll showing McCain leading by +1% in Ohio. As a result, McCain gains back some lost turf today.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all and, in a hypothetical election held today, receives (on average) 360 to McCain’s 178 electoral votes. Obama would still win an election held now with near certainty.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Senate Democrats	Senate Republicans
100.0% probability of a majority	0.0% probability of a majority
Mean of 59 seats	Mean of 41 seats

Here is an analysis of the recent Senate polling and what these polls suggest about control of the Senate. I am using methods identical to what I’ve been doing for the presidential race except that, because of the relative paucity of polling in Senate races, I use polls taken in the last three weeks as “current” polls.

A Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats control of the Senate with, on average, 59.0 seats to the Republican’s 41.0 seats. The analysis suggests that, if the election had been held today, the Democrats would have about of 30% chance of taking a “veto-resistant” 60 seat majority.

Here is the distribution of outcomes from the 100,000 simulations. The tallest bar (i.e. the mode) in the distribution is at 59 seats. (Of course, I am assuming that the two “Independents” in the senate—Senators Sanders and Lieberman—continue to caucus with the Democrats. There is about a 25% probability of exactly 60 seats and about a 5% probability of taking 61 seats.

Detailed results for this analysis, including the polls that contributed to this analysis, are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 370 electoral votes	Mean of 168 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. An election held yesterday almost certainly would have gone to Obama.

There were new polls released in Florida, Maine, North Carolina and Wisconsin today. The net result is the gain of another electoral vote for Obama.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes. The analytical results suggest that Obama would have a near 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.