Neither snow nor rain nor cold nor gloom of smoky nights stays these liberals from the swift consumption of their fermented rounds….or from rounds of vigorous discussion. That’s right, the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight! Stop by if you fancy.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may prefer to stay in the back room of the pub.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Ali Velshi: The viral political ad women have been waiting for

Seth Meyers: Vice President Harris talks Biden’s marijuana pardons, 2022 midterms and abortion rights
Seth Meyers: Vice President Kamala Harris discusses the next steps for pardoning marijuana possession

Desi Lydic investigates paper shortages affecting upcoming elections

Трамп and His Band of Lying Seditionists:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Alex Jones Whines About Hell (He’d best get used to it) ♬
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell loses appeal and tells churches to break the law
• Stephen: Alex Jones is out a billion & Walker changes the subject
• Trevor: Трамп subpoenaed by January 6 Panel & Alex Jones ordered to pay $1 billion
• Robert Reich: Election deniers could pick the next President without you
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Republican idiocracy
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Capitol riot demands denied, Alex Jones’ $965 million hissy fit & MORE KIDS for Herschel?
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Blaming it on the Liberals ♬
• The Late Show: Herschel Walker’s campaign clarifies his bull story
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Rights Aren’t Pie ♬:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s EPIC REACTION to the January 6th subpoena
• Seth Meyers: Dramatic Jan. 6 hearing issues Трамп subpoena, hints at criminal referrals
• The Daily Show: These “conservatives” sound like the KKK
• Stephen: Shocking twist…the Jan 6 Committee votes to subpoena the Dotard
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп primes the riot pump, Tucker puckers up to Kanye & Herschel’s story gets worse
• Seth Meyers: VP Harris on Texas Gov. Abbott bussing migrants across the country for “political theater”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Ariel Elias stealing a beer
• Stephen: Why is Rudy Giuliani partying in Times Square without Stephen Colbert?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: The Dotard has confessed
• Seth Meyers: Трамп accidentally confesses in stolen docs case
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ A Second Amendment Hymn ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп vs late night hosts, Marjorie Taylor Greene vs immigrants & Herschel Walker vs The Libs!
• Lawrence O’DonnellDOJ appears to crush every Трамп argument in new filing
• Stephen: Stephanopoulos on The Dotard
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: The Herschel Walker exception:

• The Late Show: Kanye’s social media presence is not getting stronger
• Seth Meyers: DOJ says Трамп still has more stolen docs, tells SCOTUS to stay out of case
• Jimmy Kimmel: Crazy series finale of Jan 6th hearings and Трамп’s little subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп said it was okay to have stolen documents ♬
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reads & DESTROYS Maggie Haberman’s book
• Robert Reich: What happened at the last January 6th hearing?
• Desi Lydic FAUXsplains Herschel Walker
• The Daily Show: A day in the life of Трамп’s Special Master, Raymond Dearie
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Loser, Loner and Liar ♬
• Stephen: Speaker Pelosi displayed superhuman composure during Jan 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol

John Oliver: Crime reporting

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Seth Meyers: FAUX News’ Halloween fearmongering—Hot Tamales, Sugar Daddies

SNL Weekend Update: Political news of the week

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders

LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever

John Oliver: Museums and antiquities

WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward

Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons

Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power

Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?

Трамп and His Felonious Fans:

• Katie Phang: Oath Keepers leader on trial says group “should have brought rifles” on Jan. 6
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Herschel May Not Be Your Daddy (or Senator) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Herschel Walker abortion lies add up, Трамп files accidentally released & Gay Velma drives GOP mad
• Trevor: Conservatives launch new dating app “The Right Stuff”
• Stephen: Herschel Walker’s girlfriend kept receipts
• Amber Ruffin: Ron DeSantis getting DRAGGED by Jiggly Caliente
• Katie Phang: MAGA extremism—Violent “civil war” rhetoric spikes online ahead of midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп PRAISES Dr. Oz’ dog experiments
• Alex Wagner: “He was pro-choice, obviously,” new report quotes woman who says Walker paid for abortion
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Automotive Epiphany ♬
• The Late Show: Be a man and drive the new Pontiac Schvantz:

• Alex Wagner: Blizzard of new revelations sends Walker camp scrambling
• Tommy Campbell: Herschel Walker tackled by ex’s receipts and son’s rant
• The Late Show: ♫ Herschel Walker, “It Wasn’t Me” ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—A Question of Storage ♬
• Alex Wagner: Трамп lawyers deploy slow-down tactics but Трамп’s case doesn’t improve
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Prof. Laurence Tribe—Трамп’s Special Master appeal is a “sideshow”
• Chris Hayes: How FAUX News became a PR channel for Republican Senate candidates
• The Late Show: Hallmark introduces The Herschel Walker Collection
• Seth Meyers: Трамп takes classified docs case to SCOTUS and Rudy’s gross toilet habits
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I’m Tired of Singing (about Трамп’s Faults) ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s COVID Superman fantasy and Ted Cruz is taking back America on a bus
• Lauren Mayer: Let’s Boot Out Herschel Walker:

• Stephen: Tyler Templeton reports LIVE from Mar-a-Lago for “Tooning Out The News”
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ The Republican Limbo Song ♬
• SNL Weekend Update: Mitch McConnell and Herschel Walker on 2022 midterms
• J-L Cauvin: Mitch McConnell reacts to Трамп saying he has a death wish
• jimmy Kimmel: Supreme Court REJECTS MyPillow Mike, Трамп weathers tell all storm & Herschel’s concussion defense
• Seth Meyers: GOP stumbles toward midterms as Трамп claims all elections are rigged
• Alex Wagner: What Трамп’s outreach to the Supreme Court is really all about
• Trevor: Who is Herschel Walker?
• Trevor: Maggie Haberman—The Ultimate Guide to The Dotard Трамп
• Stephen: “At this point we can’t ignore him”—Maggie Haberman on covering
• Stephen: “He’s backed himself into a corner”—Why Maggie Haberman thinks Трамп will run in 2024
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп, Just Your Average Sociopath ♬:

• Alex Wagner with Maggie Habberman: Трамп entitlement developed as rich kid, far from his new blue collar base
• Jon Stewart and friends: Herschel Walker’s abortion controversy
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Where else did Трамп leave his beloved classified documents?
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell’s storm report fails and Marjorie’s divorce
• Seth Meyers: GOP reels as scandal-ridden MAGA candidates like Walker and Oz implode
• Chris Hayes: DeSantis auditions for role of green M&M in white boots
• Trevor: FAUX News’s bizarre defense of Herschel Walker
• Alex Wagner: Walker confirms accuser’s identity, but denies knowledge of her abortion
• Jimmy Kimmel: Wild new Трамп tell-all and Herschel Walker’s abortion scandal
• Stephen: GOP pretends Трамп isn’t racist
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ If You Hate America, You’ll LOVE Трамп! ♬

Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown

Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.

WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion

Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG

The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
97.2% probability	2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats	Mean of 49 seats

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	47
Strong Democrat	3	50
Leans Democrat	0	0	50
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	50
Weak Republican	0	0	0	50
Leans Republican	5	5	50
Strong Republican	10	45
Safe Republican	35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		9	6018	54.3	45.7	100.0	0.0
AR		1	618	41.3	58.7	0.1	99.9
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		3	2667	55.0	45.0	100.0	0.0
CT		2	2435	58.4	41.6	100.0	0.0
FL		6	3396	47.5	52.5	2.0	98.0
GA		8	7128	51.2	48.8	92.9	7.1
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	805	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
IN		1	456	48.7	51.3	35.1	64.9
IA		1&	514	45.3	54.7	6.9	93.1
KS		1	784	42.2	57.8	0.1	99.9
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.3	99.7
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		2	1560	43.3	56.7	0.0	100.0
NV		5	3721	48.8	51.2	15.6	84.4
NH		7	5381	54.1	45.9	100.0	0.0
NY		2	1454	62.6	37.4	100.0	0.0
NC		5	3603	49.2	50.8	24.3	75.7
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		5	3698	49.3	50.7	26.9	73.1
OK		2	814	43.6	56.4	0.4	99.6
OK		1	430	39.5	60.5	0.1	99.9
OR		2	1507	61.4	38.6	100.0	0.0
PA		9	6780	52.6	47.4	99.9	0.1
SC		1&	546	40.7	59.3	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		3	1198	46.6	53.4	4.7	95.3
VT		1	996	53.5	46.5	94.5	5.5
WA		5	3361	54.4	45.6	100.0	0.0
WI		8	5709	49.2	50.8	18.4	81.6

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal

Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases

Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton

Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries

Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts

Lewis Black: 100 fucks given

Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ There Doesn’t Have to Be a Process, There CAN Be a Process ♬
• Katie Phang: Jan. 6 bombshell? “Significant information” obtained by Committee amid Ginni Thomas interview
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to the divorce of Marjorie Taylor Greene
• Ari Melber: Трамп coup nightmare—Aides testify as DOJ moves up the line in criminal probe
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 Committee obtains damning Roger Stone video, weighs Трамп subpoena
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Beware of (Dotard Трамп’s) False Profits ♬
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп nearly fired Ivanka & Jared via tweet
• Mehdi Hasan: Where Roger Stone and Ginni Thomas stand in 1/6 probe
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s favorite part of being President? The rich people! ♬
• Stephen: Трамп denies watching TV during Jan 6 insurrection
• Chris Hayes: A tale of two MAGA extremist candidates for governor
• Parody Project: ♫ SPECIAL MASTER ♬:

• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп—Better ignored, best forgotten ♬
• Robert Reich: This one thing made Alex Jones stop lying
• Stephen: Mastriano getting desperate in PA
• Vice News: Cowboy for Трамп removed from office for Jan. 6
• Chris Hayes: Трамп Judges reminds us the rule of law is a “human institution”
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell considered attacking the FBI and it’s nuts
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ (Not) Too Young” (the Трамп kids legal defense song) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп’s gullible sheep ♬
• Mark Fiore: The “Commitment to America”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Shirtless Трампers fight hurricane and Marjorie Taylor Greene is getting divorced
• Seth Meyers: Jan. 6 panel grills Ginni Thomas about shocking coup texts with Трамп team
• Rachel Maddow: Endgame of GOP undermining elections is to evade accountability to voters
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part one) ♬
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Triggering the Трампers (part two) ♬
• Katie Phang: Judge’s endgame seems to be to help Трамп says former FBI agent
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s bizarre nuke rant
• LegalEagle: Трамп’s beatdown in the 11th Circuit (Cannon rebuked):

• Chris Hayes: Why the Oath Keepers trial defense could spell trouble for Трамп
• Mehdi Hasan: The GOP’s backwards obsession with “law and order”
• Joy Reid: Stone may join club of pardoned Трамп henchmen who commit more crimes says expert
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s helicopter hog contest is hilariously bad
• Stephen: Haberman’s book details racist, sexist behavior by Трамп
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Ginni Thomas finally meets with Jan. 6 Committee
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ What to do with Трамп and Трампers? ♬
• Ali Velshi: Wild new book details how Proud Boys take orders from Трамп’s rhetoric

Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts

Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!

Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?

Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes

The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is meeting this evening for some discussion of politics over drinks. Join us if you wish.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Stephen: A fix for the chronic underrepresentation of Hispanics and Latinos on television

VICE News: Authors of banned books speak out

WaPo: How the NFL blocks Black coaches

LegalEagle: Don’t record your crimes!

NowThis: Black Women’s Equal Pay Day 2022—How to close the wealth gap

The Dotard Трамп:

• The Late Show: This is what The Dotard said to prompt the one-finger salute
• Ari Melber: Трамп indictment next? Why the blockbuster Jan. 6 report may change everything
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп’s Life Isn’t Going Well ♬
• Seth Meyers: NY AG’s bombshell lawsuit accuses Трамп of staggering fraud and seeks $250M
• Chris Hayes: Трамп admits to willful retention of documents in Hannity interview
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп lashes out after being charged with a “staggering” amount of fraud
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп could now lose everything including his freedom
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Dotard Трамп is “Goin’ down” ♬:

• Chris Hayes: Tracking the brazen pattern of Трамп fraud
• Stephen: DeSantis misled migrants to score political points and Rapping back at Utah Republican
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard claims he NEVER asked for a Special Master
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell surrenders phone to FBI in Hardee’s drive-thru
• Joy Reid: New report—Трамп’s White House lawyers warned him against taking documents to Mar-a-Lago
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Declassifying, Just by Thinking of It ♬
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп’s chances of indictment may have “skyrocketed”
• Seth Meyers; DeSantis’ cruel Martha’s Vineyard stunt backfires & Трамп humiliates J.D. Vance
• Jon Stewart and Friends: The path to Republican power lies in dickishness”, Jon on DeSantis’ latest stunt
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп claims he declassified documents using special powers!
• Trevor: Ron DeSantis’s migrant stunt spurs probe and Трамп is mad he stole his idea
• Ari Melber: Master vs. MAGA—Team Трамп rebuked in court over stolen docs
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Special Master, Трамп Disaster ♬
• New York Times: The Real Threat to American Democracy
• Chris Hayes: The non-lawyer who is giving Трамп legal advice on the Mar-a-Lago case
• The Late Show: The perfect dating app for conservatives:

• Alex Wagner: Special Master to Трамп, “Put up or shut up”
• Joy Reid: Трамп took advantage of the fact that we’re not tough on white collar crimes
• Mother Jones: The decades-long saga of how the GOP went crazy
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп is facing a judge who’s not playing games
• Joy Reid: Трамп may have indicated he intentionally sent docs to Mar-a-Lago
• Mark Fiore: Cruelty Travel
• Trevor: Трамп can declassify documents by “Thinking about it”
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Wisconsin could be more like Florida (and that ain’t good) ♬
• Chris Hayes: What Republicans threaten to do if they retake The House in November
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп returns to Mar-a-Lago after “unwarranted” & “illegal raid”
• Desi Lydic: Leaked in-flight safety video from DeSantis’s migrant plane
• WaPo: N.Y. attorney general sues Трамп for business fraud
• NowThis: The latest on GOP Governors’ political stunts with migrants
• Tommy Campbell: Donald Трамп’s bigly fraud lawsuit & Marjorie Taylor Greene trashes electric planes
• Seth Meyers: Трамп unravels on FAUX News, claims he can declassify documents with his mind
• Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s Best Christian: America’s busiest troll:

• Chris Hayes: Appeals Court rejects part of Трамп judge’s ruling, allows DOJ to resume document review
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп is mad at DeSantis and a new video of Republicans breaching election security
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Pardon Me Ron (Is That the Plane to Martha’s Vineyard?) ♬
• Stephen: Things just got worse for the former President
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп family reacts to being sued by the New York AG
• Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Трамп says bad stuff’s gonna happen ♬
• Ayman Mohyeldin: Political theater, “candidate quality” signal trouble for Republicans come November
• Stephen: Трамп confuses Hannity with wild Mar-a-Lago excuses

The New Yorker: One woman’s mission to feed Harlem

Robert Reich: The truth behind “self-made” billionaires

Liberal Redneck: Stacey Abrams, heartbeats, and Georgia

Alicia Menendez: President Biden seeks to restore trust in American Democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
98.1% probability	1.9% probability
Mean of 51 seats	Mean of 49 seats

Election analyses are back! Today’s topic: Who will control the U.S. Senate after the mid-term elections?

We can answer this question by aggregating polling data that has been publicly released over the past year or so. The FAQ covers the methods but, in short, I am using polling data along with Monte Carlo simulation methods to assess probabilistic winners for each state and an overall probability of who will control the Senate.

Using voter preferences found in the past month of polls (whenever possible), 100,000 elections were simulated in each state. The result: Democrats had a Senate majority 82,684 times and there were 15,449 50-50 ties (these go to the Democrats, as VP Kamala Harris breaks Senate ties). Republicans controlled the Senate only 1867 times.

The results: If the election was held now, Democrats would have a 98.1% probability of controlling the Senate.

I’ll highlight just a few races.

Nevada is looking more and more like a Republican pick-up. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, has been losing to Republican Adam Laxalt in the last 4 polls. These suggest she would only have a 17.3% probability of winning right now. This is a recent trend, as Cortez Masto has lead in most of the earlier polling this year.

Ohio: In this Republican-held open seat, Democrat Tim Ryan is running against Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan has the polling advantage, but Vance has lead in the last three of six polls taken this month. Control of the Senate may turn on whether Ryan gets his mojo back.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians know a carpetbagger when they see one, and they look determined to send Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) back to New Jersey. By leading in every poll this year, John Fetterman (D) has amassed a convincing lead in the race.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) just might lose his seat to Mandela Barnes (D). Barnes has lead in most polls this year. The race, based only on the last month of polling, is a tie. This race may be the one that control of the Senate hinges on.

Back to the topic of control of the Senate, here is the distribution of seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats.^* There is about a 40% chance of Democrats having at least 52 seats, the magic number that gives some immunity to Sinema—Manchin Dyspepsia.

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 98.1%, Republicans control the Senate 1.9%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.4 ( 1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.6 ( 1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (50, 53)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 50)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 29
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 19
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: two

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	43
Strong Democrat	6	49
Leans Democrat	1	1	50
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	50
Ties	1	1	1	1
Weak Republican	1	1	1	49
Leans Republican	2	2	48
Strong Republican	8	46
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		0	0			(0)	(100)
AZ		8	5210	54.2	45.8	100.0	0.0
AR		1	618	41.3	58.7	0.0	100.0
CA		0	0			(100)	(0)
CO		2	1448	56.3	43.7	100.0	0.0
CT		1	1853	58.8	41.2	100.0	0.0
FL		7	3775	47.7	52.3	2.5	97.5
GA		10	8481	51.0	49.0	91.1	8.9
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		0	0			(0)	(100)
IL		1	476	62.4	37.6	100.0	0.0
IN		0	0			(0)	(100)
IA		1&	514	45.3	54.7	7.0	93.0
KS		2	1133	41.3	58.7	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	588	41.5	58.5	0.1	99.9
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
MD		1	666	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
MO		2	1473	43.7	56.3	0.0	100.0
NV		4	3069	48.8	51.2	17.3	82.7
NH		3	2025	55.6	44.4	100.0	0.0
NY		1	858	64.1	35.9	100.0	0.0
NC		5	3899	49.1	50.9	19.8	80.2
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		6	4276	50.3	49.7	60.8	39.2
OK		2	818	37.4	62.6	0.0	100.0
OK		1	459	32.9	67.1	0.0	100.0
OR		0	0			(100)	(0)
PA		7	5181	54.7	45.3	100.0	0.0
SC		1	546	40.7	59.3	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		3	1198	46.6	53.4	4.6	95.4
VT		1	996	53.5	46.5	94.4	5.6
WA		3	1929	53.7	46.3	98.8	1.2
WI		5	3815	50.0	50.0	48.4	51.6

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Note: This IS NOT an open thread. The comment section for this post is for discussion of things like polls, elections, control of the Senate, etc. Any poo-flinging is welcome at a nearby Open Thread. Thank you!

Tonight! The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is getting together for an evening of politics, drinks and just hanging out. Stop by and join us if you wish.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Stephen: “The rules were fairly clear” in Nina Totenberg’s friendship with Justice Ginsburg

John Oliver: Law & Order

LegalEagle: Legal in the US, but not…

Robert Reich: How billionaires got so powerful

The Dotard Трамп, MAGA Republicans, and Other Flavors of Traitors, Liars, and Grifters:

• Chris Hayes: DOJ subpoenas 40 Трамп associates over Jan. 6 investigation
• Alex Wagner: Трамп goal of discrediting courts plays out in Mar-a-Lago Special Master case
• Seth Meyers: FBI seizes Mike Lindell’s phone at Hardee’s & DOJ issues 40 Трамп-related subpoenas
• Joy Reid: Mark Meadows now has “hot potato” of culpability for Mar-a-Lago docs
• Tommy Campbell: Lauren Boebert hilariously fails to debate Adam Frisch
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Roger Federer retiring
• Alex Wagner and Jen Psaki: Republican power grab in the judiciary warps midterm election dynamic
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп probes ramp up, MyPillow Mike’s new career in fast food & GOP Governors pull migrant stunt
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Karma’s a Bitch and She Votes ♬:

• Alex Wagner: GOP governors follow shameful history with cruel stunt abusing migrants
• Stephen: We predicted every insane, criminal step down nutball treason highway to January 6th
• Rachel Maddow: Barr ENDS Трамп’s entire career after ‘meddling in SDNY’ confirm…helps Pelosi with probe
• LegalEagle: Трамп’s very Special Master
• Stephen: DeSantis owns The Libs by making them look compassionate
• Alex Wagner: Lindsey Graham hands Democrats a gift with federal abortion ban proposal
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard REJECTS invitation to Queen Elizabeth’s funeral
• Ari Melber: “Substantial escalation” in Jan. 6 probe as DOJ seizes phones from “top” Трамп aides
• Tommy Campbell: Steve Bannon busted, Mike Lindell’s space movies and Трамп’s horse
• Alex Wagner: Victims of DeSantis’ cruel migrant plane prank appear to have law on their side
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s first time meeting the Queen
• Ari Melber: Трамп’s nightmare? Feds seize another MAGA insider’s phone as Jan. 6 probe escalates
• John Di Domenico: “I was secretly knighted by Queen Elizabeth!”
• Stephen: DOJ fake elector investigation brings subpoenas and Mike Lindell loses his phone
• Liberal Redneck: Immigrant shipments:

• Alex Wagner: How one law firm became the engine behind Трамп’s war on the judiciary and democracy
• Seth Meyers: Mark Meadows complies with DOJ subpoena and Brett Favre scandal texts revealed
• Jimmy Kimmel with Beto O’Rourke: Abbott & DeSantis busing migrants, abortion ban, gun laws & voter suppression
• Katie Phang: Трамп faces a deluge of legal woes
• Alicia Menendez: Investigations into Трамп’s actions to overturn the 2020 election widen

The Late Show: ♫ Guess Who Saved The Trains? Joe Biden ♬

NY Times: OB-GYNs confront legal impact of abortion bans

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Are you passionate about politics? Let’s talk about it. How about tonight? Stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and get your fix of politics over a drink.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Now This: Is Congress ready for Gen Z?

Alex Wagner: In Obama portrait unveiling, an important reminder of Democratic transitions of power

Trevor with Labor Sec. Marty Walsh: The future of work in America

WaPo: Obama’s portrait unveiling in 2 minutes

This Week In The Трамп Crime Syndicate and Cult:

• Joy Reid: The GOP uses un-American “fascist techniques”
• Alex Wagner: Michigan example exposes dishonesty of GOP insistence on abortion as a “state issue”
• The Late Show: Want to protect your elections office? Try the new Election Interfere-Ring Doorbell
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to Serena Williams losing and retiring
• Steve Hofstetter: Ron DeSantis caught cheating
• Zerlina: More details come out on Трамп docs
• Stephen: His reputation for stiffing lawyers leaves Трамп struggling to find good defenders
• Tommy Campbell: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s rally fails and nuke secrets drop
• Alex Wagner: Assessment of foreign nation’s nuclear capability among seized Mar-a-Lago documents
• The Daily Show: ♫ Come On Judge Aileen ♬:

• The Late Show: OKCousin—Dr. Oz’s new family dating app
• Jimmy Kimmel recaps Трамп’s terrible summer
• Trevor: Secret extremist group 101—maybe don’t keep a list of everyone’s names?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Defendant Трамп “Has no reputation to protect”
• Seth Meyers: FBI seized nuclear docs stolen by Трамп at Mar-a-Lago, GOP hypocrites shrug
• Alex Wagner: New report on right-wing extremist group shows alarming penetration of civic institutions
• Stephen: Why Is Judge Cannon giving Трамп special treatment?
• J-L Cauvin: Better Call Трамп (2024)
• WaPo: Book bans in America are rising
• The Parody Project: NO SURPRISE (Student Debt):

• Chris Hayes: Material on foreign nation’s nuclear capabilities seized at Mar-a-Lago
• Alex Wagner: Трамп Judge’s Special Master ruling wreaks havoc on damage assessment of Mar-a-Lago stash
• Desi Lydic FAUXsplains: The Трамп documents scandal
• Stephen: “How do we explain this to our allies?”
• Vice News: Former spy assesses Трамп’s Mar-a-Lago documents
• Good Liars: If Трамп and Hillary committed the same crime…
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to a Special Master being appointed
• Alex Wagner: Dubious court rulings show consequences of Трамп’s judicial confirmation spree
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s month of mounting criminal scandals intensifies as Biden surges
• Ali Velshi: New documentary looks at how GOP leadership traded rule of law for political power
• Lauren Mayer: ♫ Hypocrisy, Thy Name is GOP ♬

• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп lashes out at the FBI, nuclear secrets stashed at Mar-a-Lago & Don Jr’s saddest video yet
• Joy Reid: Legal expert on Трамп-appointed Judge, “This is more like food court than judicial court’
• Stephen with Alex Wagner: “This could take a very long time”
• Stephen with Alex Wagner: “Other people have gone to jail for this”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reacts to the death of Queen Elizabeth II
• Tommy Campbell: Mike Lindell blaming his failed summit on the internet is so funny

Bloomberg Law: Clarence Thomas and oral arguments—Taciturn to talkative

Mark Fiore: Exceptions to American exceptionalism

Robert Reich: A tribute to the teacher who changed my life

Now This: Obama cracks jokes at the White House

Trevor Noah (throwback): How gerrymandering invalidates many Americans’ votes

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Tuesday is here, and that means the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of politics and good cheer over drinks. You are invited to stop by.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.