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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Trevor: Herschel Walker’s wild plan, Twitter’s new covid policy, and police robots

NowThis: Hakeem Jeffries to make history as first Black party leader in Congress

Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ On the awful secularization of Groundhog Day ♬

Electoral Dysfunction:

Robert Reich: The Fed’s inflation mistake continues

VICE News: The poetry of thriving with HIV

Jonathan Jensen: ♫ A parody tribute to Randy Rainbow ♬

The Party of White Supremacists and Holocaust Denial:

LegalEagle: FTX was (and is) a complete mess

Alex Wagner: Congress demands answers on Supreme Court Justice access scandal and accountability problem

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Yep…even tonight.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will be getting together. Please join us for an evening of political discussions over a beverage or two.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Qatar World Cup

Liberal Redneck: The results of rhetoric

Vox: How FIFA corrupted the World Cup

Jimmy Kimmel: Kanye West’s new board game

Electoral Dysfunction:

Michael Kosta: New Yorkers to fill him in on the news

Joy Reid: We are a country that chooses violence over and over again

Robert Reich: Does Elon Musk have a right to destroy Twitter?

Lawrence O’Donnell: Cherokee Nation calls on Congress to fulfill 187-year-old promise

The KKKrazy Klan of The Dotard Трамп:

NowThis: Biden Gives U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team a pep talk for World Cup match

Adam Conover: Elon Musk is an idiot (and so are Zuck and SBF)

LegalEagle: Elon bought himself a bunch of lawsuits

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Political Turkey

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle

Please join us this evening as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of politics, conversation, and good cheer over a drink.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio (under an awning). The cold weather may entice some folks to hang out in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roy Wood, Jr.: Black superhero history

The New York Times: Empty classrooms, abandoned kids—Inside The Great Teacher Resignation

Desi Lydic: Twitter’s Head of Communications speaks out

Electile (Dys)Function:

Stephen: Family meeting with Michelle Obama

Amber Ruffin: How Native American kids were forced to become whiter

Mehdi Hasan: The most defining moments of Nancy Pelosi’s legacy

The Dotard Трамп and Other Dishonorable Liars and Grifters:

WaPo: How Nancy Pelosi became the most powerful woman in Congress

Stephen chats with Michelle Obama (full interview)

Desi Lydic: Black Friday—Why?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle, Tuesday, 7pm at the Duchess Tavern

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DLBottle DLBottle Please join us on Tuesday as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of post-election celebration. Please note the meeting time and venue change.

This week we will meet at the Duchess Tavern (2827 NE 55th St, Seattle WA 98105) starting at 7pm out on the patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Jimmy Kimmel: Dana Carvey’s Dotard Трамп, Barack Obama & Joe Biden Impressions

Drunk History: Unbelievable moments in US political history

Electoral Dysfunction:

Roy Wood, Jr.: CP Time—The history of Black governors

Трамп and His Imbeciles:

Ronny Chieng teaches you about Asian veterans

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Election day is here! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot, yet, do it! Only then will you be permitted to join us as the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally gathers for an evening of electoral politics and drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Election Eve 2022

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
13.3% probability
86.7% probability
Mean of 48 seats
Mean of 52 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.

My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.

Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.

What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.

There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.

Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.

Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.

Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 13.3%, Republicans control the Senate 86.7%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 48.5 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.5 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 48 (47, 50)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 52 (50, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: none

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 44
Strong Democrat 2 46
Leans Democrat 2 2 48
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
Weak Republican 1 1 1 52
Leans Republican 1 1 51
Strong Republican 9 50
Safe Republican 41

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 16 11772 51.1 48.9 94.5 5.5
AR 1& 451 32.2 67.8 0.0 100.0
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 4 3028 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
CT 1 773 66.2 33.8 100.0 0.0
FL 7 4408 46.2 53.8 0.0 100.0
GA 15 12247 49.9 50.1 46.3 53.7
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 441 59.2 40.8 99.5 0.5
IN 1 615 43.7 56.3 1.4 98.6
IA 1 753 43.6 56.4 0.8 99.2
KS 1 868 37.6 62.4 0.0 100.0
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1& 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 5 4295 44.0 56.0 0.0 100.0
NV 9 6281 48.2 51.8 2.5 97.5
NH 9 10733 50.7 49.3 84.4 15.6
NY 5 4024 60.1 39.9 100.0 0.0
NC 7 6807 47.4 52.6 0.1 99.9
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 8 7425 46.9 53.1 0.0 100.0
OK 3 2024 41.6 58.4 0.0 100.0
OK 3 1984 38.8 61.2 0.0 100.0
OR 2 2171 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
PA 14 11479 49.8 50.2 37.0 63.0
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.1 99.9
SD 1& 1275 31.8 68.2 0.0 100.0
UT 2 1242 43.2 56.8 0.1 99.9
VT 1& 987 66.4 33.6 100.0 0.0
WA 3 2183 51.1 48.9 76.1 23.9
WI 8 6410 48.5 51.5 3.8 96.2

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Bail reform

Lewis Black Rantcast: New York vs Seattle

SNL Weekend Update: Elon Musk buys Twitter & companies cut ties with Kanye West

Electile Dysfunction:

LegalEagle: The greatest brief ever filed

Amber Ruffin: Homophobia is not a problem of the past

Roy Zimmerman and Friends: ♫ Can’t Unring That Bell ♬

The Dotard and All His Accomplices and Enablers:

WaPo: When an abortion was $250 in a New York City apartment

Tooning out the News: Big News addresses the Pelosi attack

Amber Ruffin: WAIT! Is Barack Obama a sex symbol?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle Election season is upon us. Next Tuesday is election day, so today is a great day to fill out your ballot, drop it off in a mailbox or ballot drop box, and then swing by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We’ll be discussing politics of all types over drinks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: Sec. Pete Buttigieg on why fixing America’s infrastructure is fun and exciting

LeagleEagle: Ghosts are legally real

Electile Dysfunction:

Jon Stewart: Why are states undercutting their own workers?

Now This: How young people are leading the way on gun reform

The Lying, Cheating and Scheming Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

Desi Lydic: Halloween—Why do we celebrate this?

Jon Stewart and friends: When states compete to win jobs, residents pay the price

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle

Hey…it’s the Tuesday after ballots dropped (in King County, anyway). Stop by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally and we can discuss it.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. The cold weather may entice some folks to stay in the back room of the pub as well.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Spitting Image: Best of Biden

John Oliver: Transgender Rights, Part II

Electoral Dysfunction:

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship

Alex Wagner with Trevor Noah: American racism vs. overt racism in South Africa

Chris Hayes: What abortion ban with exception for “life of the mother” really means

WaPo: How SNL’s January 6 committee hearing compared to reality

The Cult of The Dotard Трамп:

Jon Stewart: Why Americans hate paying taxes

Alex Wagner: Peril of abortion bans to women’s health becomes dreaded reality

Jonathan Mann: ♫ Debt Forgivness 4eva ♬

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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