I’ve enjoyed Darryl’s pieces on the polling and general speculation about 2012. And of course, with people throwing their hats into the ring, it’s important to see where we are. And our speculation can help inform the next year and a half. But, there’s still a long way to go, and as HA’s resident worry wart, I have to point out that the narratives may all go awry between now and election day.

Right now, for example, most people think the Governor’s race will be close, even if you can’t predict the winner. After all, the last time there wasn’t an incumbent, that’s what happened. And it’s what the polls show this far out. But a lot of people said the same thing about Cantwell’s last race this far out. Sure, you can argue that McGavick, with no experience as a candidate, was more prone to screw up than someone who has already won statewide twice, or someone who has been a candidate every other year since 1998, and many times before that. Maybe. And neither probably have a drunk driving record. Fine. But who knows what happens in the intervening time on either side?

Conversely, Cantwell’s race this time looks like it’ll probably be a cake walk, and hopefully it is. Hopefully Republicans won’t field a particularly serious challenger. Hopefully, the religious, Tea Party, and money interests will fracture. But they also may unite around a serious candidate.

But one of the great things about not knowing for sure is that there’s opportunity to make a difference. You can knock on doors, make phone calls, or give some money. Write letters to the editor, or even comments on blogs. You can call into talk radio or just talk to your friends.

– It’s tough to imagine, but I think this is one of Krugman’s most depressing columns.

– The Live Free or Die State

– Seattle should follow Cambridge’s lead until the feds repeal DOMA.

– Ants farm meat, maybe.

I’m definitely one of McGinn’s biggest supporters. But I don’t cover all or even most of the McGinn stories, and I was all set to pass on the story about how the city pulled ads from The Seattle Weekly. I mean maybe he should have waited until after the meeting, but it’s pretty clear that backpage.com’s policies are a problem. And the city doesn’t have an obligation to spend money advertising with them.

It seems like such an obvious thing that of course you can get behind it. But then I went on Facebook and Twitter where I saw that some people I usually like, despite disagreeing about McGinn in general, had a lot of nonsense to say. So, I just want to address a few things:

This isn’t about silencing an opponent in the media. The Seattle Times still gets advertising money from the city, as it should. If VVM and backpage.com can do a better job of making sure its ads are from people 18 and older, they’ll probably get advertising money back. If not, then we can demonize McGinn.

The mayor isn’t picking and choosing what weekly papers he’s supporting. The Stranger has policies in place to ensure people in its adult service ads are over 18. Even if they didn’t, 2 wrongs don’t make a right.

This isn’t about sex negativity. Good lord.

This may be a part of McGinn’s brash style. As I said, I understand the argument that he should have waited until the meeting with them. If you’re not a fan of that style in general (although I am), I can see why you wouldn’t like the way he made this decision. Still, it’s the right call and not even close.

Finally, nobody thinks this move will solve child prostitution, in general or in Seattle. But the cynical bullshit machine always makes similar arguments for inaction on every issue. Instead of evaluating this on if it’s good policy smart people, who I generally like, are evaluating it on if it’s perfect policy. No, it isn’t. Nobody expects a single move to solve everything. It’s part of a larger strategy that also includes adding cops to troubled areas and updating the SOAP (not the mayor’s office, but a city policy).

– Save King County Metro

– The News of the World story has been fascinating. Fox News doesn’t have much to say about it; I wonder why.

– Marriage =

– Diggin’ Shoreline.

– I’ve always thought salad days was underrated (as a Shakespeare quote).

– “Hey, got any speed?”

In case you missed it at Shakesville , What Tami Said, and on Twitter.

I haven’t got through it all yet, but I think it’s important for people to have a chance to tell their stories. Often times, the legislative and other battles over reproductive freedom get turned into abstractions pretty quickly. And there’s a temptation to forget the real people who have their lives effected by policy decisions. But abstractions aren’t the ones who have their lives improved by Planned Parenthood.

I’ve written similar introductions (can we kill “lede” as a word in the 21st century?) so I don’t want to pick on Joni too much.

It seems a bit mad to be talking about exactly who is in and who is out of Washington’s 2012 governor’s race — 16 months away — but that is what we are doing in July 2011.

Joni then spends 10 paragraphs talking the governor’s race. Proving she’s “a bit mad” I suppose.

I actually don’t think it’s too bad talking about the Governor’s race, except if it crowds out local races, but I don’t think that has to happen. Especially in a blog like Ed cetera, where they can type as many words as they like. But this post could have been done in a paragraph or two, instead of a bunch of analysis of Inslee and McKenna and how the race will be close.

I have family up North, so I’ve taken my bike up there a few times since they started construction on the Burke-Gilman Trail. It’s less convenient than the trail; it’s not a bad ride but it’s hilly and curvy. Meandering through North Seattle and Lake Forest Park when it’s nice out is certainly fine. I imagine when it starts raining, I’ll be a bit less thrilled. I always appreciate a change of scenery, so for now it’s quite good. A few things I noticed, of course it’s all small sample size, and my experience:

• The cars are pretty good at giving room, and none have honked at me for the crime of being on the same street as them. This isn’t always the case for suburban streets, so it’s appreciated.
• People seem to be out more on the Seattle side of 145th than on the LFP side. A few LFP people walked their dogs, but more Seattle people were out. I don’t know if that’s actually a thing, or a coincidence.
• Some of the reroute signage is confusing. I’m not sure I went the way they were thinking behind the cemetery, but it worked, and part of being a bike person is being able to improvise.
• Even having lived in the area, I was surprised how much of the area I didn’t know.

– Boot ’em.

– I haven’t delved into this map of Metro’s possible service cuts too deeply, but the cursory look is pretty scary.

– A fundraiser for Bread and Roses coming up July 23.

– The Revolutionary War is probably a richer topic for a movie than Angry Birds.

Update [Darryl]: The dust storm that ate Phoenix – videos and images.

I can’t get enough of these sorts of US history/civics quizzes. But this one is not right.

15. Under our Constitution, some powers belong to the states. What is one power of the states? (Five possible answers.)

The answer:

15. Provide schooling and education, protection (police), safety (fire departments), give a driver’s license, approve zoning and land use

I’m pretty sure driver’s licenses aren’t addressed under the Constitution. I understand that the question is really, “name some stuff states do.” But why bring up the Constitution in the question?

Happy 4th, the Declaration of Independence is below the fold.

[Read more…]

I saw someone in a Powell’s cap today. It had the outline of Oregon on it. I feel like I see the outline of Oregon on a lot of stuff and the outline of Washington comparatively less. And Washington’s outline is much better looking. Between the coast, the Olympic Peninsula, and the Puget Sound, Washington’s state outline looks pretty unique, whereas Oregon despite a lot of coast has that one interesting curve toward the mouth of the Columbia river, and otherwise is basically a rectangle. Maybe there’s some graphic design difficulty, but I think we need to see the outline more.

Isaiah Kalebu was found guilty on all counts. When someone does something as horrible as he did we still give him a fair trial. We still give him an attorney and let him speak in his defense to a dozen members of the public who will decide his fate.

The good in our justice system doesn’t come up as often as the flaws on this blog. We talk a lot about the failures of the drug war. We talk about racial disparities. We talk about the very real problems with the death penalty. We focus on these and other problems instead of the good because the problems can, hopefully, be fixed. Hopefully more attention can help alleviate the problems.

But the system does work sometimes. It does put away a murderer. It showed evidence. It was fair. It gave the defendant his day in court. Hopefully, the surviving victim can find some comfort in the verdict. Hopefully we’re a little safer with Kalebu behind bars.

I don’t know if it’s just a coincidence or if it’s the summer (so I and/or horses are out on city streets more), but I’ve noticed more piles of horse shit in the middle of the road recently. This morning riding to work, it was pretty heavy traffic where there was maybe the largest pile of shit I’ve ever seen on the street. I was afraid if I swerved around it, and a car tried to pass me, that it they would hit me and I’d die, but decided it was worth the risk.

I assume this has to do with those carriage rides. It looks like a fun way to go around the city for a tourist or a date. I imagine the romance is lessened somewhat if there’s a bag of shit in between you and the horse/driver. Still, I don’t want to ride my bike through, or have to navigate it around horse shit. And I don’t really want to drive my car through horse shit either. I feel like when I lived in a more rural place, that made sense, but it shouldn’t be a thing that troubles downtown Seattle.

– Seattle is one of three cities selected for the Better Buildings Challenge.

– Also at CGI America.

– Support exists for higher taxes.

– What a dick.

– Republicans really are the wimpiest wimps in Wimpville (Marco Rubio edition).

– You don’t expense your smoke bombs? (automatically loading video, no politics whatsoever)

There are basically 2 ways to make Metro fiscally sound: (1) eliminate most service south of Renton and East of Lake Sammamish or (2) find another source of revenue (fares, taxes, taking the money away from something else the county does or some combination, but fares have already gone up and other services are hurting too). Or if you’re The Seattle Times, whine about driver pay and don’t offer any real solutions.

Two problems are special to Metro. One is bus-driver pay. It can be defended by pointing to the 2010 contract, which has minimal raises. But under the previous contracts, between 2000 and 2009, bus-driver pay rose 38.5 percent, to the third-highest figure of any big-city bus operation in the country.

Metro now feels the consequences of the contracts it has signed.

Like 90% of bus drivers are helpful and good natured. They put up with drunks, abrasive assholes, and all sorts of shit while navigating often narrow streets in and out of traffic. They are professionals. So, doy, don’t pay them anything. Also, I’m a little confused. Was bus driver pay the 3rd highest after 2009 or is it the third highest now, after concessions? The writing wasn’t clear, but I think they mean the first. The Seattle Times doesn’t say what we should pay bus drivers, nor do they calculate how many more routes we could save with cuts to bus drivers’ pay (assuming we don’t have more accidents, etc. with poorly paid drivers).

Another problem is that Metro tried to serve the whole county. The agency is going back to setting routes based more on demand, and that is good. Run buses where people want to ride them. But it is too late to avoid this deficit.

It is true that it is more costly (as I hint at in the opening), but I’m not sure it’s a “problem” as the editorial says. I think 40-40-20 is horrible policy, and am fine focusing on routes that serve the most people. Still, I don’t think we should abandon the whole areas of the county that aren’t dense enough to make back much at the fare box.

Anyway, then The Seattle Times goes from wrong to wroooooong.

The problem is that the five lattes are on top of all the other lattes, mochas and Frappuccinos people already buy for their government. Taxes go up in bad years because times are bad and good years because we can afford it.

Aah the implication that no taxes have ever gone down. Good work, people who hate facts.

There has to be a stopping point. Given the economic pain, the public opposition and the unbelievable claim that the $20 tax is for two years only, this is a good time to say no.

FYI, I skipped it but their only evidence for public opposition is that they get more letters opposing it than pro. No polling data. No focus groups. Letters to one newspaper is how you judge all public support. They aren’t calling for an election.

And it’s not like they’ve supported other tax hikes and are reluctantly opposing this. They’re opposed to any tax hike no matter how reasonable. Really, the line in the sand for The Seattle Times isn’t Metro funding. It’s public education, K-12 and higher ed. And it’s public safety. It’s all of the things the state, county, and cities do that have been reduced since the recession hit.