Goldy

The General thinks the WSRP’s website is boring, so he’s emailed Boss Esser suggesting a snazzy new redesign:

Since prematurely calling Washington’s caucus for John McCain, thus changing the narrative of Saturday’s results, WSRP Chair Luke Esser is making a name for himself nationwide… or rather, the nation is making up new names for him. Over on TPM, Josh Marshall has taken to calling him “Boss Esser“ in their expanding coverage of the caucus counting debacle, while BradBlog has endearingly termed him “Esser the Suppressor“. Cute, but to us here at HA, we’ll always lovingly know Esser simply as Rob McKenna’s bitch.

As anyone who has followed his storybook career knows, Esser has benefited from a long and cozy relationship with WA State Attorney General Rob McKenna, the two having worked closely together to climb the political ladder. Esser joined then King County Councilmember McKenna’s staff in 1996, and stayed on as a top aide even after Esser was elected first to the state house and then the state senate. Esser was paid for his help on McKenna’s successful 2004 campaign for Attorney General, and was rewarded with a plum assignment as “Outreach Director”, the perfect position in the AG’s office for a lawyer with very little legal experience. Then, after Esser lost his senate reelection bid in 2006, McKenna used his pull as the highest elected Republican in the state to help oust then WSRP Chair Diane Tebelius and replace her with his pal Esser, who proceeded to do political work on the public’s dime, while initially drawing pay checks from both the AGO and the state party. On resigning from the AG’s office under public pressure, Esser took pains to detail his close affection and ties to McKenna, writing in his resignation letter: “… Rest assured that I will always be available if I can ever be helpful to you.”

Well… considering Attorney General Rob McKenna is also Sen. John McCain’s Washington state campaign chair, it looks like Esser was awfully damn helpful to his patron Saturday night.

I’m just sayin’.

What with Washington State Republican Party Chair Luke Esser making boneheaded comments to reporters that he’s going to try to get as “close as we can to 100 percent” in the vote count, he doesn’t need much help making himself the butt of national jokes, but… well… we here at HA are always happy to lend a hand.

Over the last few years we’ve collected a treasure trove of Esserteria to amuse our friends and enrage our enemies, some of which is already gracing the pages of the widely read TPM Muckraker:

Esser wrote in the University of Washington’s paper that he was praying for rain, because that would drive Democratic-voting “shiftless deadbeats” away from the polls. He explained, “Years of interminable welfare checks and free government services have made these modern-day sloths even more lazy. They will vote on election day, if it isn’t much of a bother. But even the slightest inconvenience can keep them from the polling place.”

In this 1980’s era column Esser bemoaned the loss of “successful anti-deadbeat voter techniques (poll taxes, sound beatings, etc.)” while wistfully recalling the days of Nixonian tricksterism:

We all remember those great political traditions — whistle-stop tours, kissing babies, voter fraud, dirty tricks, and voting a straight Republican ticket. […] Like any sport worth its salt, in politics you have adversaries, opponents, enemies. Our enemies are loudmouth leftists and shiftless deadbeats. To win the election, we have to keep as many of these people away from the polls as possible.

Yeah sure, Esser was attempting to be funny, but many a truth is said in jest, and the column displays a degree of ruthless mean-spiritedness that has reared its head throughout his political career. You know, like the misleading TV ad Esser apparently commissioned, attacking Gov. Gregoire for of all things, Washington’s presidential caucus! “Gov. Gregoire and her party don’t want you voting on Feb. 5!” the storyboard proclaims, “What are Gregoire and the Democrats so afraid of?”

Um… A) Gregoire had absolutely nothing to do with the 178 members of the WSDCC choosing to allocate delegates via caucus rather than primary; and B) What is Esser so afraid of that he had to halt the counting if his party’s own messy caucus so that he could unilaterally declare McCain the winner just in time to make the Sunday morning headlines?

Why do I assume Esser showed favoritism toward McCain? Well you certainly wouldn’t expect a push for Mitt Romney from the guy who once disparaged the B.Y.U. football team as “those polygamists.” And it’s not so out of character to expect a touch of ethical flexibility from a double dipper who saw nothing wrong with collecting paychecks from the WSRP and the Office of the Attorney General at the same time.

And of course, no Luke Esser tribute would be complete without a reread of my classic essay, “Luke Esser Fucks Pigs“, a post Dan Savage lauded as “the funniest thing Goldy’s ever done.” (And unlike Esser’s college try at humor, my satire was not only funny, it actually attempted to make a point.)

I must admit to taking more than a bit of pleasure from the charges of irregularities in Washington’s Republican presidential caucus… and our local GOPologists muddled efforts to defend their party’s honor.

I cut my nasty, sharp blogger teeth covering the 2004 gubernatorial election contest, and while I wouldn’t mind sinking them into the pasty white necks of my friends over at (u)SP, they seem to be doing a pretty good job rending their own flesh all by their lonesome. First Eric expresses dismay over the tone of Mike Huckabee’s campaign, and his “scorched earth policy of throwing bare-knuckle punches at a state party and a state party chair.” (Heaven forfend!) And now Pudge dismisses the whole hoohah, arguing that the caucuses were so chaotic and mismanaged that the result “literally means nothing at all.” (Gee, didn’t I read something like that somewhere before?)

Well of course Mike Huckabee (and I’m guessin’ the apostles of Ron Paul) suspect error and/or fraud in Saturday’s caucus… such suspicions are part of the Republican Party’s DNA. Hell, Pudge’s own description of the process is far from reassuring; if this had been a general election in which officials simply called the race for the Democrat with 13% of ballots left uncounted, you can bet dollars to donuts that both he and Eric would be crying foul at the evil Democratic machine. But this wasn’t a general election, it was a caucus, and as such, perception is at least as meaningful as the ultimate delegate allocation. Luke Esser called the election for McCain on Saturday night because that was the headline McCain needed in the papers Sunday morning. Even Pudge understands this, though he clearly fails to understand (or admit) it’s meaning…

This is clear if you understand the process. The results were released just so that the party could make some news. They have no meaning.

Because… um… in politics, making news has no meaning. Uh-huh.

Back in 2004, when talk radio was calling for a revote and the EFF’s Bob Williams was repeatedly demanding that Dean Logan be jailed, I argued that errors occur in every election, and that the error rate in that one was well within the statistical boundaries described in the scholarly literature… an argument to which Stefan responded by accusing me of aiding and abetting a criminal cover up. So forgive my amusement at the sight of Republicans eating their own with accusations of election fraud. And forgive Huckabee for being so suspicious of a Washington state Republican establishment that has proven itself so cavalier and nakedly partisan on issues of election integrity.

Obama wins Maine. And once again his victory appears to be both broad and deep. That’s four for four, heading into Tuesday’s Potomac Primary.

UPDATE:
With 99% of precincts reporting, Obama wins 59.5% to 40.5%. First contest of the weekend in which Clinton came within 20 points, so I guess she’s got the momentum, huh?

As has been widely reported, people are beginning to question the results from yesterday’s Washington state Republican caucus, which WSRP Chair Luke Esser officially called in favor of John McCain by the narrowest of margins. And with official returns remaining frozen at 87.5% of precincts reporting, no wonder conspiracy theories are starting to flourish.

Unlike the Democrats, the WSRP has failed to post county-by-county numbers, and likewise, few county GOP organizations have publicly reported results. But while this frustrates efforts at more in depth analysis, it does raise some questions about the relevance of the numbers already reported.

For example, while statewide results show McCain with a slight lead, results posted in both Cowlitz, Clark and Franklin counties show the putative front runner getting his ass kicked, coming in fourth behind Huckabee, Romney and Paul in various orders, while incomplete results from Pierce County shows a very close race. So where did McCain garner his lead?

The WSRP website only reports percentages, but FOX News reports precinct delegate totals (from where they get their data, hell if I know,) showing McCain with a mere 242 delegate lead over Huckabee, 3,468 to 3,226. Quite clearly, McCain owes his apparent victory to King County, where he relatively thumped Huckabee 1,321 to 798, for a 523 delegate advantage.

Okay… it’s not so unusual for population dense King County to sway a statewide election, but hidden in these numbers is a question nobody else seems to have asked: is a precinct delegate from King County equivalent to a precinct delegate from Cowlitz county in terms of the number of voters they represent, and the influence they have on the final, state delegate allocation? And the answer, apparently, is “No.”

Accord to Rule 2 of the WSRP’s Caucus and Convention Rules:

Each county shall determine for its convention the minimum number of potential delegates provided that each county shall allocate among the precincts a number of potential delegates to be elected which is at least two (2) times the number of precincts in its county. Automatic delegates under Rule 14 shall be in addition to the number of delegates allowed for election under this rule.

What that means is that each county organization is free to allocate as many potential delegates to their county convention as they want, as long as that number is at least twice the number of precincts. This makes the statewide precinct delegate count as reported by the WSRP virtually meaningless, as the relative value of a precinct delegate is simply not comparable from county to county.

One thing we can discern from the numbers though is that Republican turnout does not appear to have been as universally robust as party officials have claimed. So far, the only county party I’ve found to have published their potential delegate allocation was Thurston County, with a potential 624 county convention delegates (not including automatic delegates) apportioned amongst their 299 precincts; how many of these were actually allocated yesterday, we don’t yet know. But in King County we do know that only 4195 delegates were allocated amongst its 2,555 precincts, 915 fewer than the absolute minimum number of potential delegates that would have been made available under party rules. Likewise, Franklin County allocated only 118 delegates amongst its 93 precincts, leaving at a bare minimum, 36% of potential delegates unallocated.

How does this happen? A KCGOP insider explained that at some precincts, no one showed up, while at others, not enough people showed up to fill all the delegate slots; it’s “not unusual at all” he told me. Almost a thousand delegates at least went unallocated for want of caucus goers in King and Franklin counties alone, and possibly many, many more than that — we can’t know for sure until we know the actual number of potential delegates available. That’s not exactly consistent with claims of high voter turnout.

Or maybe, turnout was as heavy as party officials claim, in which case King County might be the first place Huckabee’s lawyers might want to look for missing delegates?

UPDATE:
Chelan County allocated 170 delegates yesterday, exactly double the number of their 85 precincts. FYI, Huckabee beat McCain 25% to 22%.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
The WSRP just updated their results page. McCain leads Huckabee 25.4% to 23.8% with 93.3% of precincts reporting. Or so they say.

UPDATE [Lee]: This Sound Politics public blog post from Friday by Mike McGavick’s former New Media Director, Tim Goddard, gives some insight into the mindset of GOP insiders here over the fact that McCain has so little support from the Republican base. After reading his “Point One” and “Point Two”, it should be abundantly clear why Mike Huckabee is suspicious over what happened yesterday.

It looks like Sen. John McCain, the GOP’s nominee apparent, has managed to squeak out a narrow victory in Washington state’s Republican caucus… but there’s not much for McCain to cheer about in the numbers:

Huckabee	23.7 %
McCain	25.5 %
Paul	20.6 %
Romney	16.5 %
Other	1.1 %
Uncommitted	12.7 %
(87.2% of precincts reporting.)

You’d think just days after McCain’s Super Duper Tuesday victories, the GOP’s putative nominee might be able to secure a tad more than a quarter of the vote in what is, let’s face it, not exactly hillbilly territory, yet he barely even managed to edge out rapture-ready Mike Huckabee. But that’s not the worst of it. 16.5% of WA Republicans caucused for Mitt Romney despite having dropped out of the race, while 21% went for Ron Paul despite, well, him being Ron Paul. And 12.7% of Republican caucus goers — some of the party’s most dedicated and active members — proved so disaffected that they pledged “uncommitted”. Way to rally around your nominee folks.

I know national polls have consistently shown McCain to be the GOP’s most viable candidate, but it’s hard to imagine a Republican victory in November without an enthusiastic base. And with a few points of turnout differential enough to make the difference in close races, down-ticket Republicans should be feeling awfully nervous right about now. (Yeah, I’m talkin’ to you Dave Reichert.)

Even in the Republican caucus it looks like Democrats came out the winner.

The official results are pouring in and they back up the anecdotal reports from the caucus floor. Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by a 2 to 1 margin, 67% to 32%, with 57% of precincts reporting. Obama’s support isn’t just deep, it is broad, with the Illinois senator leading the delegate count in every county reporting thus far, most by better than 60%.

Meanwhile, similar results are coming out of the Nebraska Democratic caucus, where Obama now leads 67-32 with 74% of precincts reporting. The Clinton camp talked down expectations heading into this weekend’s contests. Good thing too.

But perhaps the bigger news coming out of WA today was the size of the turnout; preliminary projections suggest over 200,000 people caucused with the Democrats today, more than twice the previous record set in 2004. That’s simply amazing, and aside from the complaints from the whiners at Slog, I think it’s a testament to value of the caucus system. Yeah sure, it was hot and messy and crowded and confused and inconvenient and noisy… but that’s the way democracy should be, as opposed to sitting at your kitchen table alone with a Bic and beer, picking the candidate whose ads you disliked the least or whose name you’ve heard the most times.

And on the Republican side… well… I haven’t heard much from the Republican side. With 16% of precincts reporting Huckabee and McCain are neck and neck, with Paul not far behind. No official word yet on turnout, but anecdotal reports cite it as “moderate” at best. Nationwide, Democrats have turned out over Republicans by about a two to one margin; that says a lot about how excited the two parties are about their respective candidates.

Now if only we still had a local liberal talker on the air tonight, instead of just relying on these damn blogs…

UPDATE [7:15PM]:
Obama now leads Clinton 67-31, with 94% of precincts counted. The final in Nebraska was 65-33, and Obama leads now leads in Louisiana 53-39 with 45% reporting. That’s a clean sweep for Obama, and by big margins.

UPDATE [7:35PM]:
With 37.1% of precincts reporting: Huckabee 26.4%, McCain 22.9%, Paul 20.3%. Not surprising from a state GOP that once went for Pat Robertson.

Just got back from my precinct caucus (37th LD, Precinct 1652.) 3 delegates for Obama, 1 for Clinton. I informally surveyed the other precincts in my location, most of which had more delegates, and 4 to 1 Obama seemed to be the average.

Our caucus location was simply overwhelmed, with every precinct running out of sign-in sheets. 49 people caucused in my precinct, more than twice what I saw in 2004, which had been by far the most crowded caucus I’d ever attended; the chart for calculating delegate apportionment only went up to 25, so we had to do the math to determine the results. It was messy and disorganized — we had to wait for the custodian to open up classrooms because the cafeteria was stuffed to over-flowing — and incorrect instructions were repeatedly delivered… but then democracy is messy, with or without the capital “D”.

More later, but first I want to urge all of you to report in the comment thread on the outcome of your own caucus, Democratic or Republican. Let’s see if we can get a good snapshot of the the results ahead of the official release.

UPDATE:
Geov and Lee and I all decided to post at around the same time, so I bumped my post back to the top, because hell… it’s my goddamn blog. Reports are coming in, and it was uniformly HUGE turnout everywhere, and it looks like a rout for Obama in the making.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
It sure does look like a rout for Obama. Reports are now coming in from Eastern Washington, where Obama also appears to be running strong. 70-percent statewide wouldn’t be surprising.

UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE:
It occurred to me that as the whole nation watches the Washington state caucus today, there isn’t a single local talk radio show on the air tonight where we can discuss the results amongst ourselves, anywhere on the local dial.

My fellow bloggers have posted “An Open Letter to 710-KIRO“, asking you to sign on and join them in protesting the cancellation of Seattle’s only local liberal talker… me. I’m told they are approaching their goal of gathering 1000 signatures, but it occurs to me that if you really want to see local progressive talk back on the airwaves somewhere in this market, it might be more symbolic if they gather exactly 1090. I’m just sayin’.

Obama. I think. But I’ll give the Clinton supporters every chance to persuade me.

That’s the great thing about a precinct caucus; it’s one of those rare opportunities for you and your neighbors to get together, roll up your sleeves, and get yourselves elbow deep in the nitty-gritty of American democracy. So get yourself off your butt and head out to your caucus: 1PM today; you can find your caucus location here.

I’ll blog on my experience later this afternoon, and you can hear my preview on Bill Scher’s LiberalOasis Radio Show on WHMP in Northhampton MA.

(Photo courtesy NPI)

Wow. I guess Clay Bennett is right. We really do need a new arena. That is, as long as Barack Obama is playing there, instead of the Sonics.

According to press reports Obama packed Key Arena with as many as 20,000 people, while thousands more were turned away from the door, in what was likely the largest crowd for a political candidate in the 16 years I’ve lived in Seattle. Compare that to the estimated 5,000 people who crowded Pier 30 for a glimpse of Hillary Clinton last night, or the hundreds of enthusiastic Republicans likely to show up at the Westin tonight for John McCain, and you get a good sense of where the excitement lies, at least in our blue corner of the nation. NPI has more here, here and here.

I’m thinking it’s gonna be a big day tomorrow for Obama. How big, could help determine the course of the campaign as pundits and voters fish for a clue as to which way the momentum is swinging after Super Tuesday, and by how much.

And not only has Gov. Christine Gregoire endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, she just rearranged her schedule: she will be at Key Arena at noon today, standing on stage beside him.

I’m not sure about the value of endorsements, but I suppose in terms of local ones, that’s about as dramatic as they come here in WA just a day before the Democratic caucus. (That’s also, by the way, one more super delegate for Obama, countering Rep. Norm Dicks’ endorsement of Clinton.)

UPDATE:

Gov. Gregoire’s statement on Presidential endorsement

SEATTLE – Democrats in Washington state and across the country are fortunate to have the opportunity to select between two outstanding candidates, either of whom would be a great president. I have decided to endorse Barack Obama as the next president of the United States.

We must restore hope in America. We must put an end to politics of division – by gender, race, and faith. I know Washingtonians are tired of these divisions. They want us to tackle the tough challenges we face, and get result that make their lives better.

Barack Obama has a unique ability to reach across all the artificial divides and divisions to move our nation forward. At a time of great division in our country, we need a leader who will unite us. Barack Obama is that kind of leader.

I was inspired to pursue a career in public service by John F. Kennedy. His presidency heralded the arrival of a new generation of Americans to lead our nation. Like President Kennedy, Barack Obama is inspiring a new generation of young people to get involved. If elected, I believe he will lead us all – young and old, “blue and red” – to create a positive change in our communities, this nation and the world.

Um… John McCain…? He’s a conservative. Always has been. Always will be.

So all that shit about Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter supporting Hillary Clinton, or a conservative audience booing McCain? Well, it’s all, um, shit. Don’t believe it, don’t repeat it, and don’t help McCain run toward the center like all Republicans do when they sew up the nomination.

No, not Sen. John Kerry; he’s endorsed Obama. I’m talkin’ former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska:

One of the minor shames of my life is that I came out of WA’s 1992 Democratic caucus — my first caucus ever — a loyal delegate for Bob Kerrey. (I switched over to Bill Clinton after he sealed the nomination, and managed to go all the way to the state convention.)

Why did I caucus for Kerrey? Because he moved me. Because he gave me hope. His passion, his personal story, his unorthodoxy… after 12 years of Reagan/Bush I hungered for a president who wasn’t just another politician, and Kerrey was unlike any other candidate I’d ever seen on the national stage. It was Kerrey who on the night he was first elected to the US Senate (and again, on the day he withdrew from the presidential race) sang the haunting lyrics to “And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda” in lieu of a formal speech. That was the Kerrey I caucused for. I wanted to believe, and he gave me the opportunity.

Unfortunately, as his Senate career progressed, Kerrey repeatedly proved himself more of a Republican than a Democrat, betraying his party on numerous occasions, along with the hopes and aspirations of working class Americans.

So if you wonder why I have so much trouble putting aside my cynicism and embracing Obama, a man I truly want to embrace, I need only remind you of the words of yet another great American politician: “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” So if I caucus for Obama on Saturday, it sure as hell won’t be because he moves me. (Which, he does.)

Talk about a bad investment…

Romney launched his campaign almost a year ago in his native Michigan. The former Massachusetts governor and venture capitalist invested more than $40 million of his own money into the race, counted on early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire that never materialized and won just seven states on Super Tuesday, mostly small caucus states.

Romney spent about $136,000 per delegate… and that was just his own money. I guess that’s why he ran on his business experience.