Goldy

A couple weeks ago it became clear that our state’s media-political complex had written off Darcy Burner’s chances in Washington’s Eighth Congressional District, and was already busily writing a post mortem.

Darcy had run a disappointing campaign I was told.  She had done nothing since 2006 to polish her resume, or to erode the credentials of her opponent.  She focused on Iraq when voters really only cared about the economy, and was running far to the left of what is at  best a centrist, if not a slightly conservative district.  But worst of all, she was way “too close to the netroots.”  (Whatever that means.)

I heard this critique repeatedly, from journalists from politicos and from elected officials, sometimes firsthand, sometimes second, and sometimes through the whisper down the lane chorus that crowds the road to conventional wisdom.  I’ve even heard it suggested that I personally have done more to harm Darcy’s prospects than help, my relentless “cheerleading” spurring some in the media to turn against Darcy, if only out of spite.

Darcy and the netroots were going to lose a second blue wave election, and it was our own damn fault.  And, it seemed to me, there were some on the Democratic side of the partisan divide who were taking greater satisfaction in this “epic fail” than one would justifiably expect from their Republican counterparts.

Then, over the past couple days, and obviously promoted by both Democratic and Republican sources, this pre-post mortem started to appear in print, echoed in Eli Sanders’ premature articulation in The Stranger, and then oddly enough, bluntly stated in the pages of Time Magazine under the unequivocable headline: “Will the Netroots Sink a Microsoft Dem?”

Even as Burner’s campaign has become more of a long shot, she is increasingly a cause celebre in the liberal blogosphere. The website Daily Kos calls her “a netroots hero” and sees her struggle as a crusade for liberal bloggers as well. “Taking Darcy down, in their minds,” wrote one of Kos’ main posters, McJoan, about national Republicans, “means taking us down, Neutering us.” But her tight ties to the liberal blogosphere may well be her ultimate downfall.

[…] “Darcy Burner is pretty open about the fact that she wants to go to Congress to represent the netroots,” Reichert’s campaign manager Mike Shields, told the Seattle Times. “That is her constituency, and that is who she raised money from, and so that’s who she’ll do the bidding of.” But Democrats worry about the association as well. “The big question people are quietly asking about her,” says one local Democratic consultant, “is, in building her movement, did she lose touch with the people she sought to serve?”

Notice that the article is sourced almost entirely secondhand, with no effort by the author to talk to either campaign.  In fact, the only first hand sources cited in the entire piece are identified as “one local Democrat” and “one local Democratic consultant.”  (The same person?)  This thesis, that the netroots are an anchor around Darcy’s neck, is clearly being promoted by Democrats as well as Republicans, and has been eagerly embraced by a media establishment that is just as fearful as their political counterparts of the challenge we pose to the status quo.

But the problem with this thesis, that conveniently blames the netroots for the Democrats losing a district that has never before elected a Democrat, is that it is based on three assumptions, all of which happen to be unproved by the facts on the ground, that A) Darcy is indeed “too close” to the netroots; that B) a significant fraction of 8th CD voters have any idea what “the netroots” are, or where Darcy stands in relation to us; and that C) Darcy is in fact losing her race against Reichert.

[Read more…]

Won’t someone please put the McCain campaign out of its misery?

What is Dino Rossi trying to hide from voters?  Well, we likely won’t know until after the election, as a King County Superior Court judge has delayed her decision until next week on whether to quash a subpoena to depose Rossi about his involvement in the growing Buildergate scandal.

And while the Rossi camp can be audibly heard sighing in relief, our state’s editorialists, usually champions of sunlight and open government, continue to yawn, apparently unconcerned about Rossi’s role in what is without a doubt the most blatant and egregious violation of our campaign finance laws in our state’s history.  Un-fucking believable.

I’m still at the Ale House, but can’t hear the debate, and Trivia Night starts in half an hour, so I’m not sure how much live blogging I can do.  But that doesn’t stop you from spewing your hearts out in the comment threads.

UPDATE (8:05):
Minimum wage, right of the bat, an issue by the way, that was first brought to attention via Josh’s coverage of the AWB debate.  Your contributions at work.

UPDATE (8:08):
You know, I’m not so sure that Rossi wants to make this about who shares whose values.

UPDATE (8:13):
I guess, the bright side about Postman leaving, at least for Andrew Garber, is that Garber gets to do a little TV for a change.

UPDATE (8:19):
Rossi keeps talking about how he balanced the budget in 2003.  Um… he wasn’t governor in 2003.  (Or ever.) He started with Gov. Locke’s budget, and then made it a bit more draconian.  In fact, at the press conference in which he announced “his” budget, the PowerPoint presentation started with the headline:  “Following the Governor’s Lead.”  So why the fuck does everybody let him get away with this bullshit about how he supposedly “balanced” a budget?

UPDATE (8:21):
So far, neither candidate has mentioned “Joe the Plumber.”  Refreshing.

UPDATE (8:26):
So Rossi shrugs off an accusing Gregorie of “laundering money” by saying it was produced by a “third party”… you know, the BIAW “fund for Rossi” for which he solicited contributions.  You’d think maybe, our editorial boards would comment on the irony.

UPDATE (8:42):
I don’t think transportation is a winning issue for Rossi. Voters here are about to pass Prop 1 to expand light rail, and voters in the rest of the state couldn’t give a shit about traffic congestion or our infrastructure deficit.  But what do I know?

UPDATE (8:47):
The problem with Gregoire arguing that Rossi cut a billion dollars from education, is that it validates the notion that Rossi actually balanced budgets.  Which he didn’t.  He chaired the budget committee in the state Senate, which was only marginally in Republican hands, and the final budget was large based on Gov. Locke’s initial proposal. So if I were Gregoire, I’d be talking about what Rossi wants to cut, or wanted to cut, rather than what he did cut.

UPDATE (8:51):
The camera isn’t loving Gov. Gregoire, particularly in the split screens.  But here’s a question… is Rossi coming off as more likeable?   I think voters thought he did in 2004, and it was largely on that basis (plus the lack of understanding about where he actually stood on issues) that he made the election so close.  But even if four years later, voters don’t particularly like Gregoire (I’m not saying they actively dislike her, but it’s the whole who would you like to have a beer with thing), they’ve grown comfortable with her.  She’s not scary.  So does Rossi come off as genuinely likable, or just less wonky and officious than Gregoire?

WRAP UP (SORTA):
From where I was sitting, it was hard to hear the debate above the background noise, so I’ll have to watch it again to get a fair impression, but anecdotally, those in the bar who did watch the debate, both inside the bubble bloggers like myself, and ordinary citizens, thought that Gregoire just plain kicked Rossi’s ass.  I hope so.  And I hope there were enough viewers to make a difference.

I’m trying to live blog the presidential debate from the Montlake Ale House, wireless router gods permitting.

UPDATE (6:12):
Anybody who had “Joe the Plumber” on their debate bingo card has already won.

UPDATE (6:17):
When John McCain speaks, the CNN squiggle flat-lines like Dick Cheney’s heart.

UPDATE (6:18):
McCain:  “I know how to save billions of dollars in defense spending”… but I’m not going to tell you.  Shhh.

UPDATE (6:20):
McCain brings up the “overhead projector” bullshit again, even after it has been thoroughly debunked.  Has he no shame?  (Don’t answer… it was a rhetorical question.)

UPDATE (6:25):
Obama:  “Even FOX News disputes it.”  Big laugh here at the Ale House but little response from the squiggly line.  Speaking of which, there have been huge disparities between the men and the women in the CNN squiggly line.  Lee’s theory is that the men in the squiggly line group are drunk.  Could be.

UPDATE (6:29):
This is, by the way, a crappy, uninformative debate, and I don’t think either candidate is doing particularly well.  But then Obama doesn’t have to do particularly well, he just needs to do well enough.

UPDATE (6:31):
McCain:  “Joe the Plumber”…!!!

UPDATE (6:33):
Obama said “tit”…!  (Of course, he also said “tat”, but I’m sure there’s an FCC fine in there somewhere.)

UPDATE (6:40):
Apparently, due to a glitch, comments have been off.  Oops.  Fixed it.

UPDATE (6:41):
The candidates have been asked about their running mates.  Lee asks whether it’s too late for McCain to dump Palin in favor of Joe the Plumber.

UPDATE (6:42):
Obama:  Joe Biden “fights for the little guy.”  How many electoral votes does Munchkinland have?

UPDATE (6:45):
McCain:  Palin “understands the needs of special needs families.”  And nothing meets the special needs of a Downs baby like running for Vice President.  I’m just sayin’.

UPDATE (6:47):
McCain thinks we can build 45 new nuclear power plants “right away.”  What… are they built out of Legos?  Mashed potatoes?

UPDATE (6:56):
The squiggly line (which by the way, represents Ohio voters) really liked Obama talking about Detroit making the fuel efficient cars of the future.)

UPDATE (6:59):
McCain:  “Joe the Plumber”…!!!

UPDATE (7:04):
First candidate to promise to buy the Ale House a new wireless router gets my vote.

UPDATE (7:10):
So… McCain says that there should be no litmus test for appointing a Supreme Court justice, and that he would appoint justices purely on their qualifications, but… he doesn’t believe that a judge who has supported Roe v. Wade is qualified to serve on the Supreme Court.  Get that?  No litmus test.  Except, you know, abortion.

UPDATE (7:15):
I’m not so sure that Obama should be going on the defensive so much.  He’s spending way too much time defending himself against McCain’s bullshit charges, when he should be either attacking McCain, or talking substantively about issues.  But maybe that’s just me.

UPDATE (7:18):
Turns out, the plumbers union was the first national union to endorse Barack Obama.  Got that Joe?

UPDATE (7:20):
McCain wants to “find bad teachers another line of work.”  You know, like plumbing.

UPDATE (7:25):
I think Obama started slow, but once again is closing stronger than McCain, providing more specificity, and being more considerably more coherent, whereas McCain stays mostly on the attack. Perhaps this debate might be considered more of a draw than the previous two, but that’s just not good enough for McCain, who not only needs to win over undecided voters, he needs to win over some soft Obama voters as well.

UPDATE (7:29):
McCain’s closing statement:  “America needs a new direction.  We cannot continue doing what we’ve been doing for the past eight years.”  And so, that means we should elect a Republican?

UPDATE (7:31):
Obama’s closing statement.  He also doesn’t think we can afford to follow the same failed policies of the past 8 years.  So they agree on something.  More substantive, policy oriented closing, and that pleased the squiggly lines, especially the women.

GOLDY’S WRAP UP:
Not as sucky as the second debate, but not as good as the first one, and there’s no way McCain did what he desperately needed to do to change the dynamic of this race.  We’ll wait for the insta-polls to figure out who won, but it doesn’t really matter anymore, does it.  Stick a fork in it, this race is done.

Oh… and I loved David Gergen’s comment about McCain… it looked like “an exercise in anger management.”

The markets are down, the financial sector is a shambles, and yet even facing an economic downturn and declining revenue projections, Washington state government bonds continue to enjoy one of the highest credit ratings in the nation, earning an AA+ score from Standard & Poors and an AA rating from Fitch.  Meanwhile, King County announced today that both Standard & Poors and Fitch have renewed its coveted AAA rating, the highest score possible.

What that means for taxpayers is that it costs our government less to borrow money, at least a quarter point for every ratings step.  And if you read the reports issued by these credit rating agencies, our high ratings are largely due to the sound financial management of the governor and the executive.

Dino Rossi says he wants to change the culture of Olympia.  The question is, to what?

“Cheney experiences abnormal heart rhythm.”
You mean, Dick Cheney has a heart…?  Maybe the “abnormality” was that his heart was actually beating…?  (Add your own punchline in the comment thread.)

Sarah Palin’s Alaska fringe alliance
Seattle’s own Dave Neiwert, an author and expert on the formation of  the Northwest militia movement, appeared on CNN yesterday to outline Sarah Palin’s connections to the Alaska Independence Party, a far-right secessionist organization who’s founder dabbled in domestic terrorism.  Must see TV.

“Sorry Dad, I’m voting for Obama.”
Conservative columnist Chris Buckley is no longer welcome at the National Review, the magazine founded by his iconic father, William F. Buckley Jr.  Why?  Because of a blog post in which he announced his intention to vote for Barack Obama.

Is FL-16 cursed?
If freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney’s reelection prospects are sunk by his arrogance and hypocrisy, there won’t be many tears shed in the progressive netroots, who have long berated him as a bad vote and an even worse team player.  But I take issue with those who say he’s as bad as the Republicans, for if he was indeed a Republican, Mahoney’s sex scandal most likely would have been with a boy.

The Darcy Burner campaign has seemed awfully cheerful in recent days, and now we know why.  A new poll conducted on behalf of the campaign by pollster Lake Research Partners shows Darcy now leading Dave Reichert 47% to 40% in the hotly contested race for Washington’s 8th Congressional District.  And this comes on the heels of yesterday’s DCCC poll showing Darcy with a 49% to 44% lead.

I’m sure Reichert fans will self-soothe themselves with the notion that this is just an internal poll, but as I mentioned yesterday, campaigns are not in the business of deceiving themselves.  In fact, this represents a substantial turnaround from previous Burner campaign internal polls, which have never once before shown her with a lead. The partisan propaganda part of internal polling comes not from how they are conducted, but rather, from whether or not they are publicly released.  And there’s a damn good reason the Burner camp is releasing this poll, as the internals are just as promising as the top line.

Reichert’s job performance rating has “plummeted” to 34% “good or excellent” versus 54% “fair or poor.” And Reichert’s re-elect now stands at just 36%, meaning nearly two-thirds of 8th CD voters would consider voting for somebody else.

No doubt this race is far from over, and will likely come down to a point or two in either direction, but the gloom and doomers who had already written off this race based on polls conducted during the now deflated Palin bounce better start rewriting their post mortems.  Given sufficient resources and effective messaging, Darcy is in a position to win this race.  So if you haven’t already given all that you can toward turning WA-08 blue for the first time, well, ever… please give to Darcy today.

UNCONFIRMED TIDBIT:
Reliable sources tell me there is another, as yet unreleased private poll that shows Darcy with a small lead over Reichert.  I’ll publish details if I can track it down.

UPDATE:
I don’t know if this is the third “poll” I’ve been hearing about, as it’s not really one per se, but a source with the Washington State Labor Council confirms that they are doing phone ID work in preparation for their GOTV efforts, and that among union members, Burner is above 50% and Reichert is down around 38%.  Not a scientific poll, but encouraging nonetheless.

It is a fact that there are folks out there who actually believe that Barack Obama is an Arab, a Muslim, a terrorist, a communist or some combination of all four, and who believe that those of us who describe ourselves as progressive, liberal or even as nondescript Democrats, are traitors and appeasers who represent a clear and present threat to the security of the republic. Add to that the Republican Party’s far-right evangelical base, a constituency that fervently believes that all those who do not believe as they do will be condemned by God to suffer eternal torment, and you have the real potential for violence.

Given the far-right anger that McCain and Palin have been only too eager to whip up, it has become increasingly important that Obama not only win this November, but that he win by a convincing margin, carrying states in every region of the nation.  Any close Obama victory will be portrayed by the angry right as a stolen election, and any failure by Democrats to totally capitulate to the Republicans, like we did in 2000 and 2004, will be viewed as an attempted theft itself, thus confirming right-wing fears. And considering how dangerous and un-American these people think we are, we should be prepared for some on the angry right fringe to respond with actual violence.

Sure, such musings might come off as a little paranoid. But a little paranoia can be a healthy thing during times of crisis.

As I reported earlier today, the BIAW has dropped another $4 million into the governor’s race, bringing their total for the cycle to over $7.2 million.  Well now  it appears that the Republican Governor’s Association has dumped another $3.5 million into their anti-Gregoire smear campaign, bringing their total to more than $5.5 million.

That’s $12.7 million in so-called “independent” expenditures on behalf of Dino Rossi, more than half of it coming just weeks before the election, a game-changing number that simply shatters previous state spending records.

How much of a game changer is this?  Well, to put it in perspective, $12.7 million is pretty much what Dino Rossi and Chris Gregoire spent combined in all of 2004.

This is not politics as usual; this is shock and awe.  The question is, will our media do their job and warn the public about this dangerous effort to buy our votes, or will they just shrug it off with the kind of “both sides do it” equivalency we’ve come to expect?

Oh. My. God.  That’s not just anybody spraying angry spittle at the masses, that’s Kittitas County Republican chair Matt Manweller, a top economic adviser to Dino Rossi, aggressively confronting a lone Democrat before a Rossi rally in Ellensburg.

The young man is holding a sign criticizing Rossi’s proposal to slash our state’s minimum wage by $1.50, and Manweller just goes ballistic, repeatedly calling him “stupid,” and angrily disparaging him and the rest of our state’s minimum wage workers:

“You and those 300,000 people are dumber than a post”

Yup, that is the elitist economic world view of the co-creator of Rossi’s “IdeaBank”:  if you work for the minimum wage you must be “dumber than a post,” so really, your problems are just your own damn fault.

I’m guessing Lee and Carl, who are well familiar with Manweller’s ravings over at Whacky Nation, might have more to say about the “Nutty Professor,” but understand that he is not an anomaly.  Dino Rossi is running a mean-spirited campaign, as he would run a mean-spirited administration, and his allegiances are clearly to the people with money, not to the people.

Late yesterday, the Building Industry Association of Washington dumped another $4 million into the governor’s race, bringing their spending on behalf of Dino Rossi to an astounding $7 million.  That’s $7 million from BIAW alone, apparently the largest such “independent” expenditure in state history.

This is a stunning, disturbing and potentially game changing development that will allow the BIAW to saturate the airwaves with vicious attack ads, quite possibly swinging this election to Rossi.  And without that type of layout, the BIAW has clearly made the decision that a Governor Rossi would be well worth the price of any fines it will pay for its illegal activities.

Will our state’s editorialists express the appropriate outrage out this effort to deceitfully buy the governor’s mansion?  Sadly, I’m guessing not.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released new polls in several districts this morning, including WA-08, where their survey of 400 voters shows Darcy Burner leading Dave Reichert by a 49% to 44% margin.

“Darcy Burner’s campaign for change is resonating with families who have had enough of Congressman Dave Reichert’s support for George Bush’s failed economic policies,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Yoni Cohen. “Reichert was a good sheriff but is ineffective in Congress, rubber stamping Bush’s war in Iraq and Bush’s effort to privatize Social Security and risk seniors’ retirement benefits in the stock market. Burner is running to change Washington and provide tax relief to Washington State’s middle class families.”

Well, I don’t know how good a sheriff Reichert really was (he did not, as legend tells it, catch the Green River Killer), but he certainly has been an ineffective congressman, and his continued support for privatizing Social Security, even in the wake of the current financil crisis, should disqualify him from office on its own.  (Of course Reichert claims that he doesn’t support “privatization,” he merely supports individual accounts that can be invested in the market.  But then, perhaps he really is dumb enough to believe the party line that those two schemes aren’t essentially the same thing?)

Yes, this is a DCCC poll, and they tend to only release the good ones, but they’re not in the business of deceiving themselves, so partisans on either side should not make the mistake of dismissing it out of hand.  And while it is the first poll I’ve seen to show Darcy with an “initial head-to-head lead,” I’ve seen the internals on previous polls that showed Darcy leading after issues were pushed to respondents… something Darcy has been doing in recent weeks with her advertising.

Either way, confirmation (or not) is coming.  I know of at least two more polls currently in the field, and both Survey USA and Research 2000 should have new polls dropping within the next week and a half.  I’m crossing my fingers.

Paul Krugman wins the Nobel Prize, the U.S. and Europe partially nationalize their banking systems… and the markets soar.  Can anybody seriously argue that the era of free market radicalism isn’t over?

Le Roi est mort. Vive le Roi!