A new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll to be released today shows R-71 passing by a 50-43 margin, while Tim Eyman’s vindictive I-1033 is failing 50-38. The poll was of 561 likely and actual voters; further details and cross tabs are not yet available.
These results are largely in line with the Washington Poll released this morning, which showed similar results, if by different margins.
Update [Darryl]: Over at Hominid Views, I’ve conducted a series of Monte Carlo analyses on the Washington Poll and the Survey USA poll, both separately and combined. The Readers Digest Condensed results:
- I-1033: 99.7% probability of failing (using the combined SUSA/WA Poll polls)
- R-71: near-100% probability of passing (using combined polls)
- KC Exec: 98.1% probability that Constantine wins (WA Poll only)
- Seattle Mayor: 89.9% probability of a Mallahan win (WA Poll only)
The full analytical details, in all of their geeky glory, are given here.