The folks at Sound Politics had some fun teasing me for my moment of post-election despair, in which I said “I cannot imagine being convinced that this was a free and fair election.” (I still can’t.) They called me aluminum hat boy.
That’s fine, fun is fun.
But looky what happens the moment the vote count doesn’t go their way:
What all this says about the credibility of our election system, should the favorite daughter of the Democrat machine which produced the 10,000 magical mystery ballots be declared the winner on the basis of these magical ballots, is for another day.
(Stefan… it’s the WIFI networks that are controlling our brains!!!)
Anyway, here’s what happened. The righty bloggers have been making the same projections I have. Only much more smugly.
Based on the distribution among the various counties of the ballots left to be counted, and the current vote margins therein, we were all projecting Dino Rossi to win by a 3000-plus vote margin. Not a comfortable victory but more than the 2000 vote spread that would trigger an automatic recount.
Our math is sound, and assuming the margins hold up and the numbers posted to the elections page on the Secretary of State’s web site are accurate, our projections should be sound too. But there was always something that made me suspect that the “Ballots Left to Count” numbers were estimates only:
Figures in the “Approx Ballots Left to Count” column are estimates only.
I might have missed this disclaimer entirely, if it didn’t appear prominently beneath a bold, red, all caps warning: “IMPORTANT: READ THIS FIRST!”
Of course Stefan and the other aluminum-hat-wearing whiners at Sound Politics were well aware that these were “estimates only.” In fact there was a discussion earlier today about Benton County overestimating the number by 2500 during the 2000 election.
So here’s where we stand. After today’s count, Gregoire is leading Rossi by 158 votes, while the projections still suggest a 1430 vote Rossi victory, and an automatic recount. But… adjust the ballots-left-to-count by 5000 in the right counties, and Gregoire keeps her lead.
So there’s the glimmer of hope some of you were asking for.