Absolute, final last day of pointless speculation (… before the recount)

[FINAL (sort of) NUMBERS]

Of roughly 2.8 million ballots cast:

Time     Rossi Lead   Projected Margin   Ballots Left
12:01am    19          599                6127
10:00am    64          468                6292
10:45am    67          464                6272
11:45am   156          504                5731
12:15am   156          500                5659
04:00pm   405          587                4296
04:30pm   -35          375                2721
04:50pm   -28          366                2521
05:00pm   -28          363                2471
05:20pm   -28          339                2221
05:40pm    92          369                1971
06:00pm   -13          272                 750
06:00pm   261          261                   0

But don’t forget… Maria Cantwell’s margin increased by 290 in the recount.

Comments

  1. 1

    DJW spews:

    Look at that plummeting projected margin after heavily GOP counties finish. Any good reasons to think this is likely to continue? Why is this happening?

  2. 2

    Goldy spews:

    There are three things that effect the projected margin… the actual vote count, the change in actual county by county margin, and the change in number of ballots left to count. Since most of the votes have been counted, there will be very little change in county-by-county margin, so you are seeing the effects of actual votes cast, and changes in the estimated number of votes left to count.

    For Gregoire to come out ahead, she’s going to either have to find some more votes in King County, or places like Benton and Stevens are going to have to report fewer ballots than estimated.

  3. 3

    Erik spews:

    King County is going to have some hard core cotes for Gregoire coming in. They are not just King County votes. Many of them are selected Kin County votes from saved provisional ballots where they only fixed democratic ballots. This amounts to around 450 to 600 votes.

    A recount is one thing, but a manual recount could assist Gregoire even more.

  4. 4

    Ray spews:

    I see that Grays Harbor has 1221 to go. I assume that’s a recount. But I’m confused…is that a re-recount?

  5. 5

    JC spews:

    Although the rumor mill is always running and only occasionally accurate, I’m hearing rumors that King County is going to announce that they have an additional 2000 ballots to count today, bringing the daily total to over 3400. No idea where the ballots came from, if they are provisionals, absentees, or whatnot.

    With 2000 more votes, and with King already heavily favoring Gregoire, this may just be the last straw that pushes her over the edge.

    Let’s see if the rumor mill got it right…

  6. 6

    Brian Emanuels spews:

    Doesn’t appear to be right. King County just reported 1312 votes, and now show 0 left to count. Gregoire only picked up a net gain of 446 (putting her ahead by 29 as of right now), so once Benton county reports, Rossi should surge to a 200-300 vote lead.

  7. 8

    Brian Emanuels spews:

    I haven’t heard, but the website says they have no more to report. If that’s true, then my projection (barring another weird surprise from Grays Harbor) shows Dino winning by 366. Would be great to see a margin > 150, so they don’t have to do a hand recount

  8. 9

    JC spews:

    The Secretary of State Elections folks confirm that King’s certified results have been submitted, so apparently early rumors about the additional ballots were not true.

    Based on comments made by Grays Harbor’s election coordinator, Gregoire should take the county by 277 votes (approx) in their recount, to be completed by 5pm. That means that Gregoire should pick up another 100-120 votes in the final count. Barring unxpected surprises from Benton, Franklin, Whitman, or Grays Harbor, Dino will win by about 250.

  9. 13

    Brian Emanuels spews:

    Whitman just reported: Dino gains 32 (10 better than expected, as a result of more ballots than projected) and now leads by 4!

  10. 14

    Brian Emanuels spews:

    Franklin reports 135 for Gregoire, 223 for Dino, for a net gain of 88 (exactly as expected), putting Dino up by 92.

  11. 15

    bruce chalmers spews:

    King County just reported to Associated Press there are an additional 1074 ballots to be counted. Secretary of State’s office is being notified. Where will this all end! I smell a rat.

  12. 16

    Josef spews:

    Bruce, I do too. Right now waiting on Benton to pull Dino ahead and save our state.

    Rossi will do a press conference. I got a TWIX in my mouth and am sucking on it for Dino. I think it’s over if and when Dino reverses it towards progress.

    Dean Logan now on the air as the Twix disappears… Popping the second, hoping for better discipline. Good thing is Logan didn’t speak of any ballots.

    Awaiting Benton county to save our state! The chocolate in the Twix is starting to melt.
    (Now you have an idea of the borderline insanity in Skagino County!)

  13. 19

    JC spews:

    Just reporting what the Secretary of State’s office told me on the phone. I was under the impression that results HAD to be certified by 5:00pm today. This is election just keeps getting more crazy.

  14. 20

    rudy spews:

    HEY – the R is oozing paranoid – Remember the keep add absentees day by day by mail. Overseas, keep coming in for three more weeks. They stop at some point and cut off. Also provisionals may be coming to King from other counties who just strted soring them in the last few days. King County is so BIG, quit thinking it is like Garfield, Asotin or even Benton. Gian data potential, many variables, there is no rat. Unless you mean giant, record turout all over the sate which has imposed processing burdens everywhere. You will here much graoning from the nickel and dime counties about all the extra money this election cost them.

    The lnly fix I thought might be is the “accidental double count” which will be corrected in recount.

    GO CHRISTINE

  15. 23

    Erik spews:

    100% of expected vote counted Percentage Total votes
    Dino Rossi (R) 48.88% 1,371,414 votes Dino Rossi (R) leads by 261 votes
    Chris Gregoire (D) 48.87% 1,371,153 votes
    Last updated: 18:24 Nov 17, 2004

  16. 27

    Erik spews:

    >But don’t forget… Maria Cantwell’s margin increased by 290 in the >recount.

    Yes, and also remember:

    Q: Has a recount ever changed an election?

    A: No statewide election has every been reversed. The biggest swing was 604 votes against Republican Slade Gorton in the 1968 race for attorney general, but Gorton won anyway.

    Apparently, one can order a paid recount after the state does one. I wish there was a good resource on the rules.

  17. 28

    Jim King spews:

    There is a good resource on the rules- check Title RCW 29 and appropriate WACs.

    Anyway, I should have asked the Rice Krispies days ago…

  18. 29

    Chuck spews:

    You are welcome Dino…do us well, the last republican Goc screwed us well, I have faith you will not. Dont do a Spellman.