[FINAL (sort of) NUMBERS]
Of roughly 2.8 million ballots cast:
Time Rossi Lead Projected Margin Ballots Left 12:01am 19 599 6127 10:00am 64 468 6292 10:45am 67 464 6272 11:45am 156 504 5731 12:15am 156 500 5659 04:00pm 405 587 4296 04:30pm -35 375 2721 04:50pm -28 366 2521 05:00pm -28 363 2471 05:20pm -28 339 2221 05:40pm 92 369 1971 06:00pm -13 272 750 06:00pm 261 261 0
But don’t forget… Maria Cantwell’s margin increased by 290 in the recount.
Look at that plummeting projected margin after heavily GOP counties finish. Any good reasons to think this is likely to continue? Why is this happening?
There are three things that effect the projected margin… the actual vote count, the change in actual county by county margin, and the change in number of ballots left to count. Since most of the votes have been counted, there will be very little change in county-by-county margin, so you are seeing the effects of actual votes cast, and changes in the estimated number of votes left to count.
For Gregoire to come out ahead, she’s going to either have to find some more votes in King County, or places like Benton and Stevens are going to have to report fewer ballots than estimated.
King County is going to have some hard core cotes for Gregoire coming in. They are not just King County votes. Many of them are selected Kin County votes from saved provisional ballots where they only fixed democratic ballots. This amounts to around 450 to 600 votes.
A recount is one thing, but a manual recount could assist Gregoire even more.
I see that Grays Harbor has 1221 to go. I assume that’s a recount. But I’m confused…is that a re-recount?
Although the rumor mill is always running and only occasionally accurate, I’m hearing rumors that King County is going to announce that they have an additional 2000 ballots to count today, bringing the daily total to over 3400. No idea where the ballots came from, if they are provisionals, absentees, or whatnot.
With 2000 more votes, and with King already heavily favoring Gregoire, this may just be the last straw that pushes her over the edge.
Let’s see if the rumor mill got it right…
Doesn’t appear to be right. King County just reported 1312 votes, and now show 0 left to count. Gregoire only picked up a net gain of 446 (putting her ahead by 29 as of right now), so once Benton county reports, Rossi should surge to a 200-300 vote lead.
Yup…but is King County completely done? Is that a mid-day report?
I haven’t heard, but the website says they have no more to report. If that’s true, then my projection (barring another weird surprise from Grays Harbor) shows Dino winning by 366. Would be great to see a margin > 150, so they don’t have to do a hand recount
The Secretary of State Elections folks confirm that King’s certified results have been submitted, so apparently early rumors about the additional ballots were not true.
Based on comments made by Grays Harbor’s election coordinator, Gregoire should take the county by 277 votes (approx) in their recount, to be completed by 5pm. That means that Gregoire should pick up another 100-120 votes in the final count. Barring unxpected surprises from Benton, Franklin, Whitman, or Grays Harbor, Dino will win by about 250.
Ah. Well, Benton is late. I keep watching http://www.co.benton.wa.us/cgi.....t%20Update:
Where is Benton? I keep checking http://www.co.benton.wa.us/cgi.....t%20Update:
Skamania just reported: Dino gains 6 and now trails by 28.
Whitman just reported: Dino gains 32 (10 better than expected, as a result of more ballots than projected) and now leads by 4!
Franklin reports 135 for Gregoire, 223 for Dino, for a net gain of 88 (exactly as expected), putting Dino up by 92.
King County just reported to Associated Press there are an additional 1074 ballots to be counted. Secretary of State’s office is being notified. Where will this all end! I smell a rat.
Bruce, I do too. Right now waiting on Benton to pull Dino ahead and save our state.
Rossi will do a press conference. I got a TWIX in my mouth and am sucking on it for Dino. I think it’s over if and when Dino reverses it towards progress.
Dean Logan now on the air as the Twix disappears… Popping the second, hoping for better discipline. Good thing is Logan didn’t speak of any ballots.
Awaiting Benton county to save our state! The chocolate in the Twix is starting to melt.
(Now you have an idea of the borderline insanity in Skagino County!)
Post #9 said the elections folks certified. Is post #15 a hoax?
I’m checking with sources to try to confirm or deny it. Will post when I know something.
Just reporting what the Secretary of State’s office told me on the phone. I was under the impression that results HAD to be certified by 5:00pm today. This is election just keeps getting more crazy.
HEY – the R is oozing paranoid – Remember the keep add absentees day by day by mail. Overseas, keep coming in for three more weeks. They stop at some point and cut off. Also provisionals may be coming to King from other counties who just strted soring them in the last few days. King County is so BIG, quit thinking it is like Garfield, Asotin or even Benton. Gian data potential, many variables, there is no rat. Unless you mean giant, record turout all over the sate which has imposed processing burdens everywhere. You will here much graoning from the nickel and dime counties about all the extra money this election cost them.
The lnly fix I thought might be is the “accidental double count” which will be corrected in recount.
GO CHRISTINE
Seems weird that King County would tell AP *before* the Secy of State office.
just heard that king 5 is reporting rossi by 261 with all votes counted
100% of expected vote counted Percentage Total votes
Dino Rossi (R) 48.88% 1,371,414 votes Dino Rossi (R) leads by 261 votes
Chris Gregoire (D) 48.87% 1,371,153 votes
Last updated: 18:24 Nov 17, 2004
NO ADDITIONAL KING COUNTY BALLOTS WILL BE REPORTED.
http://www.metrokc.gov/electio....._11_17.htm
YEAH, DINO WON!!!!!!!!!!!!
DINO!!!! DINO!!! DINO!!!!
>But don’t forget… Maria Cantwell’s margin increased by 290 in the >recount.
Yes, and also remember:
Q: Has a recount ever changed an election?
A: No statewide election has every been reversed. The biggest swing was 604 votes against Republican Slade Gorton in the 1968 race for attorney general, but Gorton won anyway.
Apparently, one can order a paid recount after the state does one. I wish there was a good resource on the rules.
There is a good resource on the rules- check Title RCW 29 and appropriate WACs.
Anyway, I should have asked the Rice Krispies days ago…
You are welcome Dino…do us well, the last republican Goc screwed us well, I have faith you will not. Dont do a Spellman.
http://lobrhht.xbftuee.com