I’ve enjoyed Darryl’s pieces on the polling and general speculation about 2012. And of course, with people throwing their hats into the ring, it’s important to see where we are. And our speculation can help inform the next year and a half. But, there’s still a long way to go, and as HA’s resident worry wart, I have to point out that the narratives may all go awry between now and election day.
Right now, for example, most people think the Governor’s race will be close, even if you can’t predict the winner. After all, the last time there wasn’t an incumbent, that’s what happened. And it’s what the polls show this far out. But a lot of people said the same thing about Cantwell’s last race this far out. Sure, you can argue that McGavick, with no experience as a candidate, was more prone to screw up than someone who has already won statewide twice, or someone who has been a candidate every other year since 1998, and many times before that. Maybe. And neither probably have a drunk driving record. Fine. But who knows what happens in the intervening time on either side?
Conversely, Cantwell’s race this time looks like it’ll probably be a cake walk, and hopefully it is. Hopefully Republicans won’t field a particularly serious challenger. Hopefully, the religious, Tea Party, and money interests will fracture. But they also may unite around a serious candidate.
But one of the great things about not knowing for sure is that there’s opportunity to make a difference. You can knock on doors, make phone calls, or give some money. Write letters to the editor, or even comments on blogs. You can call into talk radio or just talk to your friends.
Well, didn’t they try to make us believe that Constantine – Hutchison was a tossup? Turned out it wasn’t even close.
In 2008, and even in 2010, the Republicans were suffering from cash shortages nationwide, and it made them have to pick and choose where they would spend their money.
After the Citizens United ruling, and with some rich wingnut Republicans willing to subsidize the next campaigns, I predict that the spending in 2012 will break every record, by far. Expect a HUGE influx of mailers and TV adds, especially in the last month of the election, most of them negative ads focused on trying to make Cantwell look like a Marxist terrorist.
The problem is, they still have to find a candidate who could benefit from the negative advertising against Cantwell. So far, I really don’t see anyone. Sherriff Hairspray will probably sit tight and defend his House seat – each of his last elections had been uncomfortably close for a three-term incumbent, so he can’t expect a strong base to support a Senate run. Dino Rossi wouldn’t try again, unless he likes abuse.
Unless they pull out another “private industry” candidate out of the woodwork, I don’t see anyone else in the same league. And the “private industry” argument didn’t work out too well for McGavick, anyway.
I’m not sure if this thread is limited to local election predictions or includes national events, but here it is:
Breakding News: Ron Paul is giving up his House seat in order to focus on his presidential campaign.
Article
Perhaps Ron Paul should have checked with Bob Dole first, and found out how well that worked out for him.
Amid charges from fellow Republicans that he simply wasn’t trying hard enough to unseat Bill Clinton, Dole gave up his Senate seat to focus on his presidential campaign. He ended up getting trounced by Clinton in the presidential election, and suddenly found himself out of elected office for the first time in decades. Not too long thereafter, he was appearing on TV promoting Viagra.
I predict Moochie Obama, the wife of the Prez, will be a fatty if she keeps scarfing down 1700 calorie lunches like she just did while telling other people to eat responsibly.
This is really pretty funny.
Another liberal hypocrite.
Watch this.
http://news.yahoo.com/video/po.....19429.html
@4 I predict that your off-topic comment will be deleted.
I’ve signed on with Progressive Change that if Obama throws us under the bus again (on SS, Medicare, etc) he can count on no contributions and volunteer support from me.
Hell yes we can.
@6
Barring unforeseen events, Obama will be getting my vote, but that’s it. Inslee’s totally worth fighting for. Cantwell, assuming she gets someone running against her, would be worth fighting for as well. Cantwell’s taken a few positions that I’ve disagreed with over the years, but that’s going to happen and she “gets it” when it comes to technology, environment, and energy and that’s huge.
@7: The vote for Obama will be difficult, less so if it’s against Romney and/or Bachmann (the horsemen of the apocalypse), but nevertheless there have to be consequences for repeatedly screwing over the base, so I’ll be withholding contributions and volunteer hours from Obama and redirecting to state races, primarily with the hope of preventing a McCupcake governorship.
@8 Obama only wants to tinker with the inflation calculation; the government is already lying about the inflation and unemployment rates, so what’s a little more fibbing compared to what Republicans want to do? GOPers want to privatize Social Security and eliminate Medicare. Obama, as obnoxious as he is, is still easier to live with than any Republican.
Obama’s debt reduction plan is called The Enhanced Fibbing Option.
I’m actually hoping the repubs put a tea-party crazy out there against Maria. It will be an Ellen Craswell disaster all over again!
I predict Obama will run with the slogans –
“4 more years, because the other candidate is nuts”
or
“Just when you thought it was safe to vote Republican again…”.
Gee
Sounds like the Tea Party here!
Let see … what would YOUR BHO have done:
a. lowered taxes on the middle class and raised them on the wealthy … he could do this without needing to take a vote because he is Obama?
b. insisted on single payer even though obamacare as it is only passed by few votes. Losing is fun!
c. not bailed out the effin banks because … welll, they did not deserve it!
d. ejecting the inmates at Gitmo by throwing them to the tender mercies of Fidel.
e. been born MORE of a “minority” .. or at least come out as gay.
f. withdrawn all of our troops immediately from Iraqistan by dropping ladders from the space shuttle.
g. not intervened in Libya because look how many lives we would have saved !
h. Declared marijuana a cure for polio and required that all Americans smike a joint once a week.
i. legalize polygamy (up to four wives) between consenting adults as long as spousal benefits ate split 4 ways and the plural wives are all of the gender opposite to the marriage host.
j. stop subsidies to Boeing so we can all leach of of the European tax payers by buying subsidized Aerobussen.
k. appointed Dennis Kucinich as secretary of defense.
l. sent his daughters to the DC public schools since they are already black!
m. sold green cards to all Spanish speaking immigrants at a 50% discount from Coyote prices.
n. Appointed a lesbian as Chair of the Joint Chiefs.
o. banned all serving of meat at White House dinners.
p. declared all phone lines public access so there could be no vocal secrecy.
q. print college diplomas for all high school graduates who can demonstrate a need.
r. refuse to trade with China until they agree to allow Bob Dylan to choose his own concert songs.
s. serve marijuana pancakes at the next White House prayer breakfast,
t. insist on bringing his female chauffeur with him for his next trip to Saudi Arabia.
u. Charge private jet owners an envy tax.
w. demand the President Reagan’s face be removed from Mt. Rushmore.
x. charge climate deniers with heresy and try them under the blasphemy laws.
y. announce that he is fasting for Ramadan, yom kippur and lent.
z. recognize Cuba and drop the blockade.
yellowpup@8
Withholding a small contribution to Obama is a consequence? Come on. He’s going to raise $1 Billion. That’s not going to get it done. The only way to impact Obama and the Democrats is to do precisely what the Tea Party has done to the Republicans. You can totally disagree with their ideology as I do, but the Tea Party busted out a bunch of RINO’s and seems determined to continue to only support those who through their actions support reducing the debt and limiting the size, scope & cost of government. McConnell is currently catching hell. He makes some idiotic offer and backroom deal with Obama and like Obama…fails to tell his fellow elected Republican’s. There is no way that will pass the House.
You don’t seem serious about consequences Yellowpup. Your idea is stupid and will have zero impact. We need a Progressive Party!