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SurveyUSA: Murray 47%, Rossi 47%

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King 5 is reporting on a new SurveyUSA poll today in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and perennial candidate Dino Rossi (R).

The poll has the race tied up at 47%. This is a robopoll of 678 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.8%. More analysis to come….

Comments

  1. 1

    Goldy, it would be interesting on Wednesday to see a post mortem on the polls of the previous week or so. The accuracy after the fact and method of polling (robo vs interview, and other wonkish stuff) all boiled down poll by poll might make for a good subject.

  2. 2

    @1

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. Darryl might also toss in the Elway poll from two weeks ago that gave Murray a big lead.

  3. 3

    Things are tightening up in many elections…both ways. Here is another race that was clearly Democrat…the Massa2shits Governor’s Race.
    Now it’s close–

    Election 2010: Massachusetts Governor
    Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D), Baker (R) Nearly Tied
    Friday, October 29, 2010
    The Massachusetts governor’s race is now closer than it has been all year.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick with 46% support, while Republican challenger Charlie Baker gets 44% of the vote. Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill remains a distant third with six percent (6%)

  4. 4

    drool–
    It’s a lot of work that will be done by plenty of others….and be dissected race-by-race. It has been done in the past.

    In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”

    Rasmussen publishes it’s projected vs. Actual results. Here are the ones from the 2008 Senate Races for example.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co....._elections

    In addition, Rasmussen called the Presidential Race 52-46 consistently the last several weeks…and it ended up 53-46…hardly a significant bias.

    Pollsters KNOW they will be held accountable. Some care, some obviously don’t because the fail to publish projected vs. actual..or modify projected AFTER the election.

    As much as the DailyKos wants to discredit Rasmussen, THEY were the ones duped with falsified info for years by Research 2000.
    You might consider that.

  5. 5

    drool–
    In fact, the DailyKos even sued it’s beloved pollsters Research 2000 AFTER they were publicly busted for falsifying numbers.
    http://www.politico.com/news/s.....39304.html

    Do you really think Rasmussen is falsifying poll numbers? Where is your evidence?
    If they did, FoxNews would eject them in a heartbeat.

  6. 6

    If it’s going to be close, you’d better alert King County Elections to be ready to “work their magic” if it looks like Rossi might win.

  8. 8

    Finally NOW (aka NAG’s–National Association of Gals) speaks up on behalf of Republican Women!!

    After Republican women faced name-calling for allegedly being a “whore,” a “b—-” and now something akin to a prudish slut, the National Organization of Women has said it’s had enough, and five days before the midterm election has called for a stop of the “sexist, misogynist attacks.”

    It was ok for Joy Behar to call Angle a Bitch TWICE on a national TV. Had she been a man, she would have been fired the first time and sent to retraining.
    It was ok for Jerry Brown’s wife to call Meg Whitman a whore.

    But it took a GUY accusing O’Donnell of a one-night-stand to push them to this.

    The Dems nastiness is really grating on Americans. You KLOWNS are an example of nasty!

  9. 9

    drool–
    But you do acknowledge the DailyKos for years posted falsified polls, right?
    I mean, their own CEO admitted it!!
    Right?

  11. 11

    We will know soon enough. Arguing about which poll is going to prove to be more accurate, this close to the actual election, is pretty silly.

  12. 12

    drool and john

    I really like your idea.

    Darryl’s analysis are a real treasure of HA and whatever happens on Tuesday, should be useful to thinking about strategies that will be needed for the next 24 months.

  13. 13

    @3,4,5,8,9…

    This assclown hates.

    Hates gays, browns, blacks, the poor, Democrats, Patty Murray, and especially

    the President of the United States of America and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Barack Hussein Obama.

  14. 14

    Back to phone-calling for Rossi.
    Been doing it for months….especially among Didier supporters.
    One of our kids had 6 messages from Murray on her cell-phone. Finally talked to one caller and screamed at her demanding to know where she got the cell-phone number.
    Same with a bunch of friends.
    All voting for Rossi now!
    You need to “target” phone calls dumbasses.

  15. 15

    13. Rujax! spews:

    @3,4,5,8,9…

    This assclown hates.

    Hates gays, browns, blacks, the poor, Democrats, Patty Murray, and especially
    the President of the United States of America and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Barack Hussein Obama.

    I do?? I don’t “hate” anyone…even ImamObaMao. I disagree with his destructive policies & actions. Same with Murray. I have a lot of Democrat friends…including a couple we had dinner with last night.
    I love Puddy and my other Black friends. I admire strong, courageous folks who stand up for Conservative.
    If I hate poor people so much, why do my wife & I donate so much time & money??

    Hell, I even love stupid people like you Rujax!

  16. 16

    Post game accountability, particularly when it comes to Rasmussen and Survey USA: a look at the delta between early polling (i.e., narrative manipulation) and polling closer to the actual vote is useful.

  17. 17

    Darryl–
    This key race has been around 4 points for quite awhile. Let’s see how this turns out in evaluating Rasmussen.
    Pennsylvania Senate: Toomey (R), Sestak (D) Locked in A Tight Race
    Friday, October 29, 2010

    Republican Pat Toomey still holds a small lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak in the closing days of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.
    The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Toomey picking up 50% of the vote to Sestak’s 46%.

  18. 18

    Robopolls (aka: self-selected sampling): I bet I’m not the only one who has been screening his calls (I’ve let them all go to the answering machine) for the last three weeks.

  19. 19

    Zotz–
    This is no longer early polling, is it?
    4 days before Election Day?
    I agree that early polls mean little…BECAUSE PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR MINDS.
    Obviously, the closer you get to the Day, the more it OUGHT to mean.
    Early polls are about gauging “momentum” and key issues. Otherwise useless. BUT, it is helpful to candidates. That’s why so many Dems are running away from Obama/Pelosi and Reid.
    I think some Blue Dogs who survive may very well jump parties…rather than,,,what did Obama say..”sit in the back”??

    Some of you KLOWNS mistake what early polls are used for. It’s like looking at a thermometer or snapshot.

    Obama was -20 yesterday in the Strong Approval Poll. Today he is -19. Some days he has move as much as 3 pts. up or down. It’s about momentum and recent approval. It can change. It’s just that when it is locked into a narrow range for a long period of time, it is tougher to move.

    Get it?

  20. 20

    Mr Cynical: “Back to phone-calling for Rossi.
    Been doing it for months….especially among Didier supporters.”

    Your arm must be worn out from calling all twenty Didier supporters in the state.

  22. 22

    Re: targeting phone calls

    I haven’t had a single phone call from a Democrat since I greeted a young couple out doorbelling for Dicks and Murray and told them on Oct 16 that both my husband and I had already voted for both Democratic candidates.

    I have had live and robo Republican calls at the rate of 2 per day. I seriously question the Republican targeting since neither my husband nor I have voted for a Republican in over 30 years. Both of us voted for one Republican for a county office in 1981 shortly before the Democrat was indicted. That is the only vote for a Republican either of us has cast in more than 40 years of voting. We are both “perfect” voters but we have zero Republican inclinations. My husband is a retired union official and I am a former county Democratic Party officer.

  23. 23

    @9 Cynical. Yes. It’s a fact. The firm doign the polling for Kos was using false data. If a government did that a country could go to war when none is justified. Just think of how public opinion could be shaped by a bunch of “facts” that turn out to be lies.

    BTW: Shut the fuck up. I stand by that.

  24. 24

    SurveyUSA doesn’t get it right. Patty will start out about 4 points ahead and then as King County trickles in late will widen her lead.

  25. 25

    According to the Small Business Administration:

    “Just one month after the President signed the Small Business Jobs Act, SBA has supported nearly $3 billion in loans to more than 5,000 small businesses across the country. That’s more than 5,000 small business owners who’ve felt first-hand, within one month, the impact this new law is having on our economy.”

    This is a good thing, and it could have happened months and months ago if Republicans had not set out on a deliberately obstructionist course to make things worse for Americans in the hope of getting votes from fed-up workers.

    Dino Rossi would just join the Party of No Help, the Party of No Jobs, the Party of No. We don’t need that any more. No more failed Republican policies. No more outsourced jobs.

  26. 26

    I just read that King County is on track for turnout of 750,000 of 1.1 million registered voters!

    Let’s get it close to 100 percent!

    GOTV!

  27. 27

    Obama’s administration helped create more jobs in his first 18 months than in all eight years under GW Bush.

    He also cut taxes for all Americans and cut the budget deficit.

  29. 29

    Four questions for Republicans…and four answers for undecided voters

    Questions:

    1. What was the average monthly private sector job growth in 2008, the final year of the Bush presidency, and what has it been so far in 2010?

    2. What was the Federal deficit for the last fiscal year of the Bush presidency, and what was it for the first full fiscal year of the Obama presidency?

    3. What was the stock market at on the last day of the Bush presidency? What is it at today?

    4. Which party’s candidate for Speaker of the House will campaign this weekend with a Nazi reenactor who dressed up in a SS uniform?

    Answers:

    1. In 2008, we lost an average of 317,250 private sector jobs per month. In 2010, we have gained an average of 95,888 private sector jobs per month. (Source) That’s a difference of nearly five million jobs between Bush’s last year in office and President Obama’s second year.

    2. In FY2009, which began on September 1, 2008 and represents the Bush Administration’s final budget, the budget deficit was $1.416 trillion. In FY2010, the first budget of the Obama Administration, the budget deficit was $1.291 trillion, a decline of $125 billion. (Source) Yes, that means President Obama has cut the deficit — there’s a long way to go, but we’re in better shape now than we were under Bush and the GOP.

    3. On Bush’s final day in office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 closed at 7,949, 1,440, and 805, respectively. Today, as of 10:15AM Pacific, they are at 11,108, 2,512, and 1,183. That means since President Obama took office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 have increased 40%, 74%, and 47%, respectively.

    4. The Republican Party, whose candidate for speaker, John Boehner, will campaign with Nazi re-enactor Rich Iott this weekend. Do you need an explanation why this is offensive?

  30. 30

    Pyrite,

    You forgot one very important thing in the poll…Rossi is leading by two points with voters who all ready voted.

    On Nov. 3rd you need to get ready to say: Welcome Senator Elect Dino Rossi.

  31. 31

    And here’s Nate Silver at NYTimes.com explaining why “robopolls” (Rasmussen is a leading one, SurveyUSA is another) are more Republican-leaning than other polls.

    “I also spoke with a Democratic official, who asked not to be identified, who told me that he had largely discounted using automated polls after discovering systematic differences between them and polls conducted by live interviewers. This official told me that the effects had emerged in mid-2009, and had an effect on the order of 1 to 5 points, depending on the state and the weighting techniques that were applied.”

    This does not say “who’s right,” and we won’t know until the ballots are counted. But the so-called “house effect” is there; it’s real. And I personally think that it is suspect.

  32. 32

    Nate Silver again on Oct 4:

    “We’ve already noted that Rasmussen does not call cellphones, so they will never reach about 30 percent of the adult population. Of the rest, about half will not realistically be able to accept a phone call on their land lines between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. on a given weekday evening, which is the only time that Rasmussen calls. Because Rasmussen does not call back when they miss respondents the first time around, these voters are effectively excluded from their surveys. That reduces the fraction of Americans who could potentially take one of their surveys down to about 35 percent.”

  33. 33

    # 32: In other words, Rasmussen is unintentionally creating a coverage bias in it’s polling techniques. The cell phone-only problem is really going to be an increasingly huge factor – perhaps so much that there will be pressure on Congress to change the law to allow polling of cell phones.

    If Rasmussen doesn’t react quickly enough, and if the ultimate vote shows a significant variation from it’s polling, then it might run the same risk as the Literary Digest, which relied on telephone polling in 1936 to incorrectly predict the election of Alf Landon over F.D.R. by a significant margin. Of course, many homes had been hit hard by the rescession, and in 1936 only the comparitively well-off had telephones in their homes.

    The Literary Digest went out of business shortly thereafter, but Gallup, which used door-to-door pollsters that year, took off after correctly predicting an F.D.R. victory.

  35. 35

    Mark1 @ 28,

    “Of course Darryl and his other brother forgot to mention this one, as it doesn’t favor the Libtards:”

    Yeah…right.

    Are you fucking retarded, or do you need your meds adjusted?

  36. 36

    rhp–
    IF Rasmussen is off as much as Daddy Love salivates about, certainly they will adjust their underlying assumptions. Good pollsters are constantly tinkering with their models anyway…as they should. It’s all about the underlying assumptions. Rasmussen is assuming landlines are still prevalent enough among LIKELY VOTERS (that’s also a key..identifying LIKELY VOTERS).
    We’ll know the answer to that in about 5 days or so…

  37. 37

    I have said I think Murray is 2-3 points ahead…and still believe that…although more likely 2 points. Rossi lacked charisma to close the deal.
    Also, as YLB pointed out, turnout in King County is critical to Murray. 750,000 should get it done for her…depending upon where in King County the votes come from. I expect the Reichart vote in Dist 5 to be pretty close to what Rossi gets.

    What is real interesting is some polling I’ve seen on Norm Toadhead Dicks. He is running against the same guy he ran against previously…but with likely much lower margins. Will that help Murray??
    You look at the House Races…will they track with Rossi/Murray. Many are much closer than usual…except for R’s Doc & Kathy…and McDimwit.

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